jorgenswest

Your mean spirited characterization of Mauer certainly hints at your bias. Why is the celery stuff necessary? It distracts from the quality of your argument. Banks and Mauer were certainly different hitters. The MVPs might matter but voters might realize that there were 8 teams in the NL in Ernie's prime and 14 teams in the AL in Joe’s prime. Ernie never once played in the post season. Though a team thing, it must have weighed on voters. Relative to their rank at their original position, there is little to distinguish them. Joe still needs to keep putting up league average years through about age 37 to match the longevity of Banks.

Better received? My guess is the 10 pages are a handful of people quickly reacting back and forth repeating the same conversation seen in many threads. In short order they aren’t responding to the post but rather reacting to each other. That ongoing debate is enticing and draws me in but not what brings me to TD. I come here for the thoughtful articles. They are often followed by thoughtful responses to the original post that are fewer in number.

Reading through I am surprised by the concern of a forum being shut down for breaking news. Seems like a simple solution though. Don’t shut the thread down. Keep both threads. Put a link in the thread inviting readers to go to the article without closing the thread. Take the time to write a good article and trust the conversation will flow that direction.

Sickels said there was a huge amount of C+ in the system starting around 13. The C+ really don’t have a lot of value now towards adding a good starting pitcher. Hopefully several of the C+ prospects have a really good first half and they will be in a better position to make mid season trades. It is incredibly critical that they develop the talent they have in the minors better than most. It is the only route to sustained success.

If Sano is a platoon DH that means Escobar is half the platoon. Over his career he has hit left handed pitching much better than right handed pitching. Last year that wasn’t the case but it would be very unwise to use splits in a single season. The sample is just far too small against left handed pitchers. If Escobar is half the platoon, he will help more batting right handed. Napoli doesn’t help at all. Any gain they might see they simply lose when Escobar is playing mostly against right handed pitching. If that is the plan, Napoli is a horrible fit.

I have 52 blog entries. It appears my last was one year ago. There were 3 in 2016. All of the rest from 2015 and before. Why? I am not sure. I certainly put much more thought, research and time into a blog entry than a response in forum. Honestly in short order any thoughtful blog entry becomes another of the infinitely repeated forum conversations where it is clear by the second page that the commenters probably haven’t read or thought about the original blog entry and are simply reacting to a comment within. I came here as a regular reader of Parker and Seth. There was great and thoughtful content written. The community in the forums took over. Thoughtful researched content shifted to fun reactionary banter. I enjoy the debate (though I survive with 30some on my ignore list). I am not sure that was the vision of Twins Daily but you have a great active community here. It just doesn’t seem to be the place for the thoughtful researched content. I appreciate the community and the place to debate about the Twins. Thank you.

The Twins have 5 spots to fill on the bench (plus DH). One of those players has to have options to be easily moved when the need for a 13th pitcher occurs. Catcher Middle infield Sano insurance at 3B Outfield 13th position player with options. Without any moves my guess for the 5 would be... Garver Adrianza Escobar Grossman Granite How would Napoli (or even Vargas) fit? Vargas projects better next year but possibly not from the right side. They could take Grossman’s spot. When Granite is shuttled out Adrianza is the reserve OF. I suppose they could take the spot of Escobar or Adrianza but that is really counting on Sano’s health. Are there alternatives? The Twins could bring in a defensive back up catcher and use Garver in the shuttle role. How close is Garver to the bat of Vargas or Napoli? They could bring in a right handed batting corner OF. I don’t see how Napoli fits well.

I sure hope the front office was pretty confident he wasn’t ready when he didn’t get an opportunity last year. They see him everyday. They know his command, velocity, spin rate, consistency... They know how his arm reponds the day following an appearance. The skilled staff watching him in the minors is very capable of making that assessment.

Ernie Banks played SS through age 30 posting an OPS+ of 138. Thereafter he played 1B with an OPS+ of 106. Among shortstops Banks ranks 7th according to JAWS. Joe Mauer played C through age 30 with an OPS+ of 135. As a 1B since he has an OPS+ of 106. Among catchers Mauer ranks 7th according to JAWS. Banks made it to the Hall of Fame for his shortstop play. Mauer can get there as a catcher.

Mauer’s comps of Cochrane and Dickey suggests that he fits in the Hall of Fame. He also ranks above them in JAWS at catcher.

Sabathia on a one year 10 million dollar deal with Yankees. I hoped the Twins would be in play there for a one year deal. I wonder how much more than 10 million they would have had to go to get Sabathia. I wouldn’t have been interested in two years.

Wondering... The Twins didn’t lose anyone in the minor league phase and added two. Does this suggest that the depth of their system is relatively weak?

It becomes an issue when they go belly up year 1.

There isn't a more un reliable career path than that of a reliever. It is folly to use 2017 stats to project 2018-2020. Go back two years and look at the relievers that received multi-year contracts. John Axford Steve Cishek Jason Motte Tyler Clippard Antonio Bastardo Mark Lowe Tony Barnette Chad Qualls Jonathan Broxton Oliver Perez Shawn Kelley Tony Sipp Ryan Madson Joakim Soria Darren O'Day If Rodney doesn't pitch well, it is easy to cut ties. It is much harder to cut ties when multiple years are committed.

I am sure I said somewhere that I would rather the Twins go big for someone like Davis or Darvish or sign an old guy like Sabathia and try to squeeze out a year. This fits the old guy signing. I still don’t like it. Intellectually I know that many of the multi year reliever free agent deals work out badly for the teams. My intellect isn’t taking over here. It should be telling me that the likelihood of Rodney pitching acceptably well in 2018 is similar to many of the relievers recently signed. My gut isn’t impressed with the signing.

If he pitches well it won’t be a disappointment.

He could be a September addition to the bullpen when rosters expand. The bullpen might be the best spot for 2018 also.

... and if you go back to 2015 both Cobb and Lynn have xFIPs ranked below Kyle Gibson over the last 3 years. Yes. They had serious injuries but that shouldn’t be a plus. What is the likelihood they return to their form of 2012-2014? There might be a few front offices seriously concerned about committing to 4 years of their decline.

Just adding context to the statements related to the Morris signing that was used on both sides of the debate.

Some context... The contract guaranteed 3/2/2 if Morris accepted the player option. Higuera had signed a 4 year 13 million guaranteed contract early that winter. Other pitchers were getting guarantees of 10 million or more. Baseball was coming out of collusion and salaries were escalating very quickly. The going rate for a top pitcher was going to pass 5 million. Gooden signed a 3 year extension for 15.45 million guaranteed prior to the 1991 season. Three days after the Twins signed Morris, Clemens signed a 4 year extension worth a guaranteed 21.521 with an option for 5.5 million more. Collusion a thing of the past, salaries were escalating and each new contract seemed remarkable to newspapers. The Twins guaranteed 7 million to Morris and 3 days later Clemens got a guarantee of three times as much. The Morris signing was critical to the Twins, but he didn't get Clemens money or even Higuera money. He didn't earn top tier pitcher money until after 1991 when the Blue Jays gave him more than 5 million a year. Relative to Twins signings the commitment was more similar to that of Nolasco or Santana.

There was a very interesting series of articles by Matt Swartz in fangraphs this summer. He looked at several aspects including varying methods for calculating the dollar amount and the aspect of linearity. It makes me wonder about Lynn and Cobb. Lynn is projected by steamer to have 1.3 WAR next year. Over 4 years with decline and chance of injury he might project for 3-4 WAR. A generous projection might give him 6 WAR perhaps declining from something starting above 2 next year. Teams might be in at around 50 million for 4 years to buy that hope of 6 WAR. By steamer Cobb projects better next year at 1.7, but a 6 WAR over the next 4 is reasonable though a little generous. Interesting steamer projected Chatwood at 1.9 fWAR. He is younger and decline isn’t a factor but injury is a factor. If the Cubs projected him at 4.5 WAR over three years his contract is close to market. A team’s ability to project is incredibly important here. The in house work is critical. Teams are getting better but ERA, wins and holds are still overvalued and overpaid. One of his articles shows a premium for FIP vs. ERA that is still present in the market.

Preventing opponent runs scored is the major task of the new front office. Their first step was to address catching and emphasize outfield defense. I think both helped to prevent runs. The next task has to be to address pitching. Your trade would go a long way to addressing that need. If the front office is unable to package Dozier and Santana towards getting a front line pitcher, would you consider the performance of the front office to be a failure this winter?

Seems like the smart move for the Pirates would be to trade those pieces individually as the White Sox. McCutcheon is a better player than Eaton, but he only has one year left on a reasonable contract. Even with the one year of control, he will get a good return. I think they need to trade him this winter so he retains the value of the compensation pick. The return for Eaton was two prospects better than anyone prospect the Twins gave to offer. McCutcheon is really a comp to Dozier though. Would trading one for the other make sense for the Pirates? Possibly if they were a contender and had a top prospect blocked by McCutcheon. Like Cole, Quintana and Sale both had two years of control last winter. Cole slots in between them in value. Quintana returned an MLB top 10 prospect and an MLB top 100 prospect and two others. Sale netted the number 2 prospect in baseball, a top 30 MLB prospect and two others. The Twins don’t have anyone to match those top prospects. They might have to offer the Pirates their choice of any three prospects in the organization plus one more. The deal of Robertson and Kahnle netted them Blake Rutherford a top 50 prospect and two others. Robertson is more like McCutcheon and Rivero is more like Eaton in terms of control. Rivero should be able to return a top 50 prospect plus a few Cs. The Pirates have an opportunity similar to the White Sox if they are wise about moving their assets. Trading them in one deal would not be wise. The Twins would have to go all in on Cole and gut their system given they won’t have the level of prospects other teams can offer. Thrylos’ trade broken down might be the young players for Cole, McCutcheon for Dozier and Rivero for Santana. McCutcheon and a Dozier are of similar value. Santana and many years of control of a Rivero are of similar value. The Twins could come up with 4 young players to get Cole. The trade is fair. The Pirates won’t need to be fair. They should be patient until they are long term winners for all three players.

If the Twins are going to compete for a very good starter in the trade market, they need to go in with all of their cards. They can’t enter those discussions holding back discussions for any of their prospects. They don’t have any premium prospects like those that have been traded on the last year for pitchers. Reservations about gutting the system to get a very good pitcher are reasonable, but that is what it is going to take. Taking the reasonable position of being unwilling to trade Gordon or Lewis or Gonsalves would be a message to trade partners that the Twins aren’t serious about making a deal. I am seriously interested in the Twins acquiring an Archer or Cole. Every prospect is in that discussion.