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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I blogged a brief history of pick 20. Brief enough to copy here. The Twins have drafted more often that any other team in this slot. This will be the 7th time in 54 drafts. Three guys are among the top pick 20s according to WAR in Torii Hunter, Denard Span and Trevor Plouffe. One other pick was helpful though he never played in the majors. Johnny Ard twice made BA's top 100 and was traded to the Giants prior to the 1991 championship season for reliever Steve Bedrosian. Ard's career ended with arm injuries in the Giants system. Mike Mussina posts the best career from a pick 20 and Chris Parmelee's career is at about the median ranking 23rd in WAR of 48. The last five number 20 picks have not reached majors but I didn't include them in the median calculation as they have a chance. It is kind of sobering to know that our selection today may not hit the majors for several years. In taking a closer look at the last five pick 20s only 1 of 5 has ever been on a top 100 list. Baseball America had Casey Gillespie at 74 prior to the 2017 season. Sobering. The Twins have done very well with that pick relative to the league. I hope that continues today.
  2. jorgenswest
    The Twins have drafted more often that any other team in this slot. This will be the 7th time in 54 drafts. Three guys are among the top pick 20s according to WAR in Torii Hunter, Denard Span and Trevor Plouffe. One other pick was helpful though he never played in the majors. Johnny Ard twice made BA's top 100 and was traded to the Giants prior to the 1991 championship season for reliever Steve Bedrosian. Ard's career ended with arm injuries in the Giants system. Mike Mussina posts the best career from a pick 20 and Chris Parmelee's career is at about the median ranking 23rd in WAR of 48. The last five number 20 picks have not reached majors but I didn't include them in the median calculation as they have a chance. It is kind of sobering to know that our selection today may not hit the majors for several years. In taking a closer look at the last five pick 20s only 1 of 5 has ever been on a top 100 list. Baseball America had Casey Gillespie at 74 prior to the 2017 season. Sobering. The Twins have done very well with that pick relative to the league. I hope that continues today.
  3. jorgenswest
    Another opinion on the deal... (MLBTR quoting fanrag)
  4. jorgenswest
    A year ago when Rosario hit 1000 PAs (maybe ABs) there was an article on this site and discussion on the KFAN Sunday radio show about how he had the poorest OBP among all LFs with 1000 PAs. There was a big flaw in that comparison. It wasn’t comparing all LFs at the point they reached 1000 PAs. If it had there would be several other LFs with poorer OBPs. Some like Joe Rudi had very good careers. It is so important for organizations to have patience with players 25 and under with even as many as 1000 plate appearances. The first 1000 is not a good predictor of how they will perform as they get to 1500 or 2000.
  5. jorgenswest
    I think they don’t bump him because they believe he gives them the best chance to win in his 8th inning role. Previous performance is not a good predictor of the next performance. Unless there is an injury or something that might indicate injury like drop in velocity, they should keep putting him in that role. It won’t be a matter of him working anything out if he does well in the next opportunity but rather the random variation of day to day performance.
  6. jorgenswest
    Hildenberger on WCCO this morning talking about Garver and his comfort in working with him.
  7. jorgenswest
    The 40 man piece is the key. They don’t know which injuries are ahead and what kind of flexibility they will need on the 40 man roster. If a guy is going to be added to the 40 man roster at this point, they better be extremely confident that the player is here to stay and will make an impact.
  8. jorgenswest
    I would like to see Wade by the end of the year but he comes with some questions that can’t be answered with data. The Twins staff seeing him everyday likely do have some answers. Defensively he has moved off of center field and has been reported to have a below average arm. He may be an upgrade in LF over Rosario. Is he a liability in RF and CF? Offensively there should be some concern about the number of walks absent of good power. With a high number of walks he is seeing a lot of pitches. He must be seeing a lot of pitches he should be barreling up. Is he not recognizing and attacking those pitches? Is he fouling them off when he should be driving them to gaps? He won’t see nearly as many good pitches to hit in the majors. If major league pitchers don’t have to worry about him attacking hittable pitches, they will pound the zone and his minor league walks will turn into weak contact. I would like to see him in AAA. With success, I would like to see him in September. I don’t advocate for him to be called up now. AA walks without good power doesn’t translate well to the majors.
  9. jorgenswest
    Honest question What is the most ever spent? Does it count re-signing or extending their own players?
  10. jorgenswest
    They will also have a lot of positions to fill. Polanco and Sano return as the only viable infielders under contract. They need a catcher. They need better options at DH. They will need a bullpen and a probably a starting pitcher. They have young players that they should pursue long term deals. The dollars will make a difference.
  11. jorgenswest
    My meh... Which has more value? A pick 74 for which only a small minority of players have had a significant career or Villalobos and a one year free agent signing at around 7.5 million. It seems like there is space to argue on both sides. Isn’t that different from saying why bother drafting? It just might not be worth Villalobos and 7.5 million. I would prefer the pick only because there is about a 5% chance that a truly valuable player will emerge. I don’t know the likelihood that a free agent at 7.5 million (or upgrading to a better free agent with 7.5 million) will result in a truly valuable addition for a season. Maybe it is around 50%. Bet on improving next season or take a flier on a player that might help 5 years down the road. Meh.
  12. jorgenswest
    The pmajority of players picked 74 never play in the majors. By WAR Mike Benjamin is 8th of 53 and the last of the useful players. A few other recent draftees might join the group but pick 74 has minimal but better odds of being a useful player than the catcher they received. With the 7 some million they can add a bat like Morrison for a year or a set up man for a year. I am not sure that there is anything here to get very passionate about.
  13. jorgenswest
    Additionally Magill can multiple innings. The Twins need the guy holding the last spot in the pen to be able to go more than 2 innings.
  14. jorgenswest
    Did you watch Sano’s at bats last night? Two walks. The second walk was at least 9 pitches and became the game tying run in the 8th. A drive to the left center gap and a diving catch by Gamel. A fly ball to the wall that advanced a runner from second to third. Four very good at bats out of four.
  15. jorgenswest
    It is really hard to sort out the experts. There is so much scouting and prospect reporting by the stat line. Reports are repeated by other sources giving them additional weight. The only way to reliably assess a catcher’s defense is to watch them in person several times. How many experts saw him catch several games? I think he has worked very hard and improved considerably from the time he was drafted. We have read about his hard work and improvement. Those phrases are also a cautionary flag about a player. I don’t recall reading about Buxton improving defensively or working hard on his defense.
  16. jorgenswest
    I think Seth’s maybe is reasonable. Do we know if he can be close to an average shortstop defensively? Hitting major league pitching is incredibly difficult. We have seen several players do well in AA and struggle. There is no way in looking at a stat line to know a player’s readiness in the field or at the plate. The staff seeing him every day is in a much position to better determine readiness. The Twins long term success relies on the skill of their staff. He could easily struggle at the plate and be much worse in the field than Adrianza right now. Long term Gordon appears to be at least a starting 2B. I hope they keep developing his glove at SS where his bat will play much better.
  17. jorgenswest
    Just took a look at AAA... It is hard to find a someone playing better than Astudillo that a team would be willing to trade. In the IL only one player younger than Astudillo his hitting and I would guess it would take a lot to pry Danny Jansen away from the Blue Jays. The other young catchers are Francisco Mejia and Reese McGuire. We might go after McGuire but he has never hit in the minors. In the PCL the younger catchers have been called up in Carson Kelly and Jacob Nottingham. Nottingham is back in AAA. He didn’t hit well outside of PCL. When the Cards brought up Kelly, they also moved Andrew Knizner up a level. He is a good prospect. The Cardinals have Molina through 2020 and a few good 23 year olds. They are the only team I can see to target once Molina is healthy. Gordon might be a fit here. The Blue Jays have Jansen and McGuire but they also have a major league need at catcher. I can’t see them very interested in moving either and certainly not Jansen. Maybe there is some hope in Astudillo.
  18. jorgenswest
    i think Wade needs more time to develop his bat. We don’t know how often he is getting a pitch he should barrel up and instead he misses it hitting a foul ball or puts it in play to weak contact. With his large number of walks, he must be seeing lots of pitches and should have more opportunities to get a good pitch to hit. With all of those walks must be plenty of counts in his favor and pitchers needing to throw him a good pitch. How often is he getting those good pitches and not taking advantage or recognizing them? How often does he end up with a walk when somewhere earlier in the count he should have barreled up a pitch? We don’t know. The Twins staff should know. There should always be a at least a caution flag up when you see a player with a lot of walks and little power in the minors.
  19. jorgenswest
    Still a chance to get a return for Buxton. Do you trade him for a major league catcher?
  20. jorgenswest
    The Twins should know what they have in Garver defensively. They shouldn’t have to wait until he is in the majors wondering what they have in his defense. They should know or they need to overhaul the minor league staff. There isn’t anyway for outsiders to know and most data in a partial season is of little value. If the Twins have assessed Garver to be an average or better defender they should be playing in 4-5 times a week. If not, they need to be aggressively seeking their next catcher.
  21. jorgenswest
    They should cash that in soon. Wilson playing once a series is OK but they should be actively looking for an upgrade.
  22. jorgenswest
    Yes. I keep pitching Lynn. I count on his walk rate to return to his career norm prior to this season and I trade him in July. I start May in AAA with his last option and I ease his workload up. He hasn’t been a starter since June of 2015. The time in AAA will be valuable and it will be much easier to adjust his workload and give him any needed extra rest at that level. I think we do agree that this roster is not one that can compete with the best of the AL. My plan would be to try to squeeze out the most value I can from the players who will be free agents. It is reasonable that Lynn will perform over his next 8 starts near his career norms. If that happens, the Twins will find a trade partner. The previous 8 starts aren’t a great predictor of the next 8 starts particularly when those previous 8 are not inline with career norms.
  23. jorgenswest
    I am not sure 8 previous starts is predictive of the next 8 starts. If they were and it was reasonable to expect the same walk rate going forward then he should be removed from the rotation. It might also be reasonable to expect the walk rate to return to previous norms. I hope he has a good June and July so they can flip him at the deadline.
  24. jorgenswest
    I look at the Yelich deal where Brinson was often top 25 plus three others. Catcher is more scarce than centerfield. They have to expect to get better for Realmuto even when comparing 3 years of control against a possible 5 for Yelich. Gordon is seen by many as a 2B which is not a position of high value and Gonsalves as a 4th starter. They are good prospects with a major league future. It will take a great prospect. Is there anyone willing to trade Lewis or Romero for Realmuto. Note. Low ceiling does not equate to mediocre. A likely future starting 2B and 4th starter are not mediocre prospects.
  25. jorgenswest
    To advocate it has to include willingness to trade the high upside prospect the Marlins are seeking. The Twins have two of those guys in Lewis and Romero though Graterol may get there by midseason. I think most of us would trade a package of lower ceiling guys like Gordon and Gonsalves. To me, that isn’t calling for a Realmuto trade. Should the Twins have been willing to part with Lewis or Romero? Some team will be willing to trade a prospect with that upside.
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