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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I agree. Aggressively approach taking them both. Taking Grienke’s full contract will ease the return on prospects. It will mean spending virtually all of the space in the budget. I still do it. Spend the bulk of the rest on one reliever. Go inexpensive on a one year 2B contract to a player looking to have a turn around year. Non tender Grossman to save a little. The Twins may never have this much flexibility in their budget. How many other teams are in a position to make this deal? Go for it. Add two real difference makers.
  2. jorgenswest
    I don’t think it is a never nor is it an always, A rebuilding team can always find space. A contending team needs to find a player and role that fits the roster. In today’s game team’s utilize options to shuttle relievers. You don’t get options with a rule 5 player. If the Twins target a middle infielder that can compete with Adrianza for that bench spot it could be a fit. The back of the bullpen has to be flexible.
  3. jorgenswest
    The cost is roster flexibility. Even if you do roster that player it would be years before you get a return. Ryan Pressly was taken in 2013 and was used in low leverage situations. The Twins in turn had to carry 13 pitchers much of the year. He was sent to AAA in 2014 and pitched less than 30 major league innings in both 2014-2015. In 2016-2017 he was at the back of the bullpen just above replacement level. Finally a pay off in 2018 and the Twins do get good prospects. Likely best case is the guy we take this year pays off in 2024. The much greater likelihood is that the rule 5 addition will be stuck on the roster and increase the need for a 13th pitcher. This will really limit the opportunity for an extra bench bat like Astudillo. I would rather bet on Astudillo and roster those last spots in the pen to guys with options that can shuttled back and forth rather so that the staff can stay at 12 most of the year. How many contenders are going to trade roster flexibility to stash a rule 5 guy in 2019? How many did it last year? If it was foolish not to take a rule 5 player wouldn’t every team take one?
  4. jorgenswest
    I hope the open spots will not result in them taking a player in rule 5. A pitcher nearly guarantees an extra man in the bullpen and a bat like Astudillo in AAA. The only pick might be a middle infielder on the bench who competes with Adrianza for the roster spot.
  5. jorgenswest
    I think Jay is the most likely to get taken. He can be rostered as a LOOGY as well as the usual rule 5 mop up role. It is hard to see where Arraez will fit as a bench player. Teams will still need a back up at SS in addition to him on the bench. He doesn’t offer much as a pinch runner. He doesn’t offer power yet. A team could try to stash him for a year and then put him back in the minors for 2020. I wonder about Navarreto. Is there a parallel to Stuart Turner? Teams can easily roster a good defensive catcher that can’t hit as a back up. They would then return Navarreto to the minors for 2020.
  6. jorgenswest
    Can Arraez play SS? If not, he will be hard to roster. I haven’t seen him play. I know he has also played SS, 3B and LF but they may not be close to major league level. Gordon and Wade would be easy for teams to roster.
  7. jorgenswest
    Was Dombrowski there when they drafted Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Devers or Benintendi? The Red Sox did a fantastic job of draft and development. The Twins need to work on that development part. Hopefully the new Twins staff can develop the young talent on the Twins.
  8. jorgenswest
    I think too many teams will be in a Gonzales given his versatility. I am also concerned that one fantastic year distorts his value. He has 4 other years in his prime centered around 730 OPS and one great year. I would expect around 730 this year and decline from there. He will also decline defensively. His bat won’t play well on a corner as he ages. The Astros have the space to extend him. Why didn’t they? If think he will get three or more years and I don’t want to pay for that decline. I would love to have his 2019 season though.
  9. jorgenswest
    Falvey has his coaching staff. Falvey has a lot of flexibility with the budget. This is his team now and real progress must be evident this year.
  10. jorgenswest
    I am not counting on Reed rebounding. They need to bring in three relievers to match with May and Rogers. If Reed gives them a sixth guy they can count on no one will be overused.
  11. jorgenswest
    My preference in the middle infield is one year guys. I expect Gordon to rebound and reach the majors this year. I expect Lewis in May 2020. I don’t want to be committed to any of the free agent middle infielders beyond this year.
  12. jorgenswest
    I don’t think he was ever a poor defensive catcher. He showed a good bat with the Angels but he also had solid veteran catchers blocking him in Brian Downing, Ed Ott, Bob Boone and Tony Pena. The Angels also called him up at 19 so they had to make a decision on him and moved him off catcher. He was still blocked when traded to the Pirates by Pena and Junior Ortiz. That his defense at a young age didn’t compare to those veterans shouldn’t have given him the label of poor defensive catcher. He also was brought up to the majors so early he never really had time to develop before teams needed to make 25 and 40 man roster decisions on him. After that he was no longer seen as a catcher until the Twins signed him and gave him the opportunity If Astudillo’s defense is similar to Harper’s defense he should be the front runner for starting catcher next year. Harper was able to answer the question about his defense. I hope Astudillo can also.
  13. jorgenswest
    There isn’t anywhere near a plethora of good defensive catchers. If there were, guys like Wilson and Butera would have very short major league careers around their peak and then be replaced by the next very good defensive catcher around age 27. The reason those guys can stick around until age 35 is because it is really hard to find a good defensive catcher and nowhere near a plethora.
  14. jorgenswest
    Carson Cistulli compared Thorpe to Jalen Beeks. Both left handed with similar polish and command. Both with questionable fastball. The good news to me is Beeks returned Eovaldi in trade so there is solid value there. For the most part, the Rays used Beeks as the guy who pitches after the opener. The Twins need left handed pitching whether he lands at the back of the rotation or the bullpen. They need guys that they can flip for pitching help when they are contending for the playoffs next July. It is encouraging to know that the Twins have prospects of this value outside their top 10.
  15. jorgenswest
    Falvey is holding the leash. Falvey’s own leash can’t be longer than 2 more years.
  16. jorgenswest
    I think one of Cave or Kepler will step up as a solid RF. It is good to have both, Kepler has the plate discipline and needs to make better contact more often. He will improve as he enters his prime. Will it improve enough? Cave barreled the ball often and needs to manage the strike zone or pitchers will not throw him pitches he can barrel. His strike zone management will improve as he hits his prime. Will it improve enough? I would lean towards Kepler with the better strikezone management to be more likely to take the step forward next year. I think Cave is going to have some struggles as pitchers adjust and he improves in his plate discipline but has the higher long term ceiling. There is a spot for both on the roster and there will be plenty of playing time for both. They need to perform.
  17. jorgenswest
    On trusting defensive metrics... Is it just the available measures you do not trust? Do you believe that individual defense has a significant impact on preventing runs?
  18. jorgenswest
    Slash stats vary widely in partial season samples. I don’t think they have any meaning for the future and do not represent a trend.
  19. jorgenswest
    One way to try to measure the value of a manager has been to look at runs scored and try to see if they more more than an expected number of wins. Can a manager win more than their share of close games? I don’t think this measures has shown a significant impact. It is very difficult to measure how many extra runs a coaching staff added or prevented due to the preparation of the players and the relationships they build towards getting the most out of a player. How would that be measured? The Twins front office needs to find that manager who is better than almost anyone else at preparing and getting the most out a player’s ability.
  20. jorgenswest
    My objection is using slash stats and WAR to support an argument for or against Cave’s future value. WAR does a good job of talking about the past but at his sample helps little looking forward. The Twins need to look forward and there are good reasons (strike outs and walks) to be concerned about both bats. The one valuable asset to count on is Buxton’s defense.
  21. jorgenswest
    I do know that both his strike out rate and walk rates over his full 2017 season were better than Cave's 2018 rates. I do know that he is far superior defensively. I would guess if you could go back and pull a sample from the end of the 2017 season back to match Cave's sample size he would have more WAR but I don't think WAR should support any argument at that sample. I do know that Buxton's sample would not be selective like Cave's where his data is skewed due to sitting disproportionately against left handed pitching.
  22. jorgenswest
    If anyone is projecting Cave based on his OPS and WAR they should add that the sample in his half season is not enough to be reliable. His strike out and walk ratios should be a concern. We have to wonder if he can hit lefties well. Scaling his numbers to a full season makes even less sense when his data is disproportionately skewed to right handed pitching. He is a reasonable fall back option for Kepler or Buxton but his OPS/WAR do not project reliably forward.
  23. jorgenswest
    I will have to think about it. You may be right. I would hope a manager with superior relational skills would help get the best out of players and also right the ship quicker when things go bad. I wonder if a manager is a consideration at all in signing a contract either as a free agent or to remain with the team. Maybe not. Money is king here. Machines do a lot now but I do wonder if managing playing time, bullpen, batting order, match ups and the like still has an important human element. I guess I am relectant to agree that managers add almost nothing because then I have wasted a good amount of time being a critic of their decisions. If managers add almost nothing then that doesn’t leave much to criticize.
  24. jorgenswest
    A lot of stuff happened that was out of Molitor’s control. I don’t question that. Manager’s matter though. Has anyone pointed out some deficit they need to fill now that Molitor is gone? What did he bring to the table that will be really hard to replace? The Twins (or any mid market team) need a great manager and front office to compete. Average won’t do it. “Not his fault” won’t do it. It is on the front office to find that great manager. If they can’t it should be their jobs on the line next.
  25. jorgenswest
    If players are generally hitting free agency around 28... What factor should competitive balance play in any restructuring? Should there be a concern that the large market teams will have the majority of the best players in their peak seasons? Two kinds of players might populate the mid market teams. They might have good prospects in their initial struggling years with a good season or two prior free agency. The others might be players in their decline in their 30s. These might be guys originally signed by a large market team but traded off for the last one or two years of their contract or players they signed as free agents at 28 who were near average in their primes but mediocre in their early 30s (and the last few years of their contracts). I don’t think they can fix the service years without also addressing the current lack of competitive balance that could become more imbalanced.
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