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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The opportunity for Gonsalves is more about his learning and getting his feet wet than the Twins learning about him. I am certain their view of his future is no different today than it was a couple of weeks ago. Ours shouldn’t be either.
  2. jorgenswest
    How is this any different than trading an expiring contract in a losing season. Would I trade a month of Buxton this year for a full season in his prime? Yes. Would I trade a month of Buxton this year to have him the full season next year? Yes. The only stable numbers in AAA are a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 6.5%. That is not worthy of a call up. If he loses a year of service it is because he had so little command of the strike zone in the majors and minors. Those same rates we’re no different and maybe better in 2015-16 AAA than this year. I must add that it would be folly to look at slash stats or any numbers on the last month. However the skilled eyes of those watching him everyday will know of a skill change long before they stabilize in the data. If those watching him are extremely confident that he has turned the corner in his strike zone recognition bringing him up could have benefit entering the off season.
  3. jorgenswest
    I think Wilson has been both helpful to the development of Garver as well as the two pitchers for whom he was the primary catcher in Gibson and Berrios. I hope he is healthy and able to contribute to the Cuns success.
  4. jorgenswest
    I wouldn’t pursue Logan Forsythe. I probably wouldn’t pursue any of the age 32+ free agent second baseman. Ideally they have the talent in their scouting department to identify the ~25-26 year old 2B that can be the next Dozier/Forsythe and acquire that player buying low.
  5. jorgenswest
    Well thought out and intriguing. My first reaction is that I would prefer a model that might work with a 12 man pitching staff. This model works for September and maybe for the 25 with 2 piggyback slots. I am certain they are studying the opener model and thinking about whether the talents of some of their staff would fit that model. The remainder of the season is a great opportunity to try a different model. I prefer that look be something that they might also be able to use next April.
  6. jorgenswest
    Drafting a high school pitcher #4 is a risky decision. Of the 14 drafted only 5 had a good a career (Matlock, Fernandez, Wood, Morgan and Brett). Six ended with a negative WAR or no appearance in the majors. Dylan Bundy (2011), Kohl Stewart (2013) and Riley Pint (2016) remain and none are a sure thing for a significant career. Bundy has a chance and Pint has been awful in the minors. The 2013 first round doesn't look very good. Of the top 12 picks only 2 have positive WAR and after pick 3 (Gray) you need to go down to supplemental round pick 32 before finding a significant player in Aaron Judge.
  7. jorgenswest
    If he isn’t moved by September, I would play Adrianza every day possibly at SS. The other in house option they might consider is Rosario at 2B with Polanco at SS. Gordon hasn’t given them any reason to start his service time.
  8. jorgenswest
    Every game matters to me. No way do I want any player or coach on the team not giving everything to win everyday. Playing to win matters. It matters to those watching the game. It matters to the development of players. It matters way more than a handful of spots in a draft.
  9. jorgenswest
    The home run was awesome. I wasn’t expecting a home run but I was expecting Joe to come through. He is the Twin I want up in that situation.
  10. jorgenswest
    If he has value to the bench or lineup of a contending team, they should be able to find a trade partner. If he doesn’t have that value, they shouldn’t be interested in fostering him next year. A three man bench has a spot for an OF, middle infield and catcher. He can’t fill any of those roles as a 2B/3B. The fourth guy needs options to give them roster flexibility.
  11. jorgenswest
    Trade him for the best the market will offer and play Adrianza.
  12. jorgenswest
    My mistake bringing in my preference for Wade and Austin. I retract. It is only a distraction. I don’t believe there is nearly as much value in a month of September at bats versus his value next April much less an extra full year at the end. Could the difference be that I believe Buxton will be a very valuable player in that extra year and you believe the September at bats are critical to any possibility of future success? If that’s the case, we disagree. I don’t think the at bats are very valuable but I get your point.
  13. jorgenswest
    I prefer the value of the extra year and would send him to Florida. Wade and maybe even Austin can get time when Cave, Rosario or Kepler sit. Buxton isn’t playing every day and I don’t know if he is even playing back to back days. He isn’t going to be seeing the best pitching in AAA or September. Given that pitching the data will be less reliable even at 150 PAs.
  14. jorgenswest
    120-150 PAs In season I start looking at those rare stats around Memorial Day.
  15. jorgenswest
    They have stated they will be careful with May’s use. That is a tough mix with the need to get him in front of major league batters. They do have enough arms in the pen to manage his more limited use.
  16. jorgenswest
    They should not bring him up based on performance and health. If he is playing every other day he doesn’t even have time to establish playing well and he certainly hasn’t met that bar yet. These September at bats are not going to matter next spring.
  17. jorgenswest
    I think Correa was much more ready with the glove. If Lewis is going to play SS it is going to take longer. If they want his bat sooner they might shift him to RF. I would keep trying to develop Lewis as a SS.
  18. jorgenswest
    He is young. There isn't evidence in the data that he is ready to be successful in the majors yet. He is young enough to develop one of his pitches to the point where he gets more swing and misses. I would keep him on the 40 and plan to use an option him to AAA to start next year regardless of how he performs in a handful of starts.
  19. jorgenswest
    The comment was the third time through. Missing bats is a problem but not specific to the third time through. Missing bats and too much contact can be a problem in the first inning also so I am not sure how your reply is connected to my reply about the third time through.
  20. jorgenswest
    I had to go back and read my original reply. The only stated support for the bullpen career was today’s performance. I think it is foolish to think that a month or two of play is going to tell us anything about a player much less one start. I reacted to the original support. I agree with what your assessment of his career thus far. Had that been the original statement in support I would not have hit reply.
  21. jorgenswest
    i Stewart is young. His strike out rate is trending up. His ceiling is unknown to me.
  22. jorgenswest
    So a ground ball by the second basemen and a chopper to the thirdbasemen that would have been an out at third 99.9% of the time is your evidence that Stewart’s future is in the bullpen.
  23. jorgenswest
  24. jorgenswest
    Was he hit harder the third time through? The 8 and 9 hitters did not have hard contact to start that inning. An average defensive 1B would have stopped the 9 hitter’s single. Third time through Candelaria poked one by the second baseman. It was not barreled up. Inglesias hit a slow chopper to 3B and all Adrianza needs to do is step on 3B. He does lose composure and walk Goodrum. He is taken out and Kepler makes an bad throw on a fly ball in front of him. No runs should have been scored this inning. I saw... A ball an average 1B would make get by Austin. An inexplicably bad play by a 3B not getting an out. A pitcher in his first game losing composure for a batter. A fly ball that an average play from right fielder would not need 4 several to get to the catcher. I did not see batters pounding him the ball the third time through. Did we watch the same game?
  25. jorgenswest
    When changing the pitcher gives you a better chance to get out of the inning and changing the third baseman does not.
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