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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I think they will need to cut payroll. Rosario doesn’t have value beyond his contract. He hasn’t had that excess value. Why trade when similar players will be free agents and likely less expensive? I am not sure about Rogers either. I think many teams will be cutting payroll. It might be better to add that money to any spent on starting pitching. Jeffers, Rooker, Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis and maybe even Gordon will all be needed to step up. I think they can also find an inexpensive utility player in free agency. The same goes for the young arms in the pen.
  2. jorgenswest
    Did Blankenhorn come up for Smeltzer?
  3. jorgenswest
    Wade over Rooker at 1B? Wade has never played 1B in the minors and has one start there in the majors. I wonder if Rooker has a major league position other than DH.
  4. jorgenswest
    I think you missed pointing out how the data for the third time through is very skewed towards the top of the line up. A pitcher rarely sees the bottom of the line up a third time so the vast majority of the data from the third time through is skewed significantly toward the best hitters. A better look would be to see how batters fare against a pitcher their third time they see him. Given the data you outline above you would expect a majority of hitters to have their best at bats the third time they see a pitcher. If the data is similar to looks two and three years back I am guessing that it won’t be near as striking. I think it was around 37-38% of batters fared better the third time through which is more than 1/3 but not much more.
  5. jorgenswest
    The encouraging statcast news is three hard hit balls averaging 104.6 MPH from a sorely needed right handed bat. The concerning statcast news is his outs above average of -2 after 13 innings is the same as Sano’s in 313 innings of RF play.. He missed or did not attempt on balls that had a 50%(dive), 55%(no attempt) and 85%(no attempt) catch probability. Additionally the marvelous Donaldson catch was one that the left fielder should have made the play in the first game. He certainly must be a better fielder than he showed yesterday. The Twins would not have kept him in the outfield. I will assume first day jitters had an impact on his reaction time and he will be better.
  6. jorgenswest
    The Twins worked a trade for Vargas so I think claims were bypassed.
  7. jorgenswest
    I don’t get it either. Donaldson has to be better than Vargas or Adrianza no matter how he has performed against Keuchel.
  8. jorgenswest
    I would prefer playing prospects than trading them. The Twins could wait out service time on these players and keep them down to begin next year also. There seem to plenty of teams going the opposite direction and playing young players this year. Lewis bats right handed and comes with some positional flexibility. The Twins as a team aren’t close to a 100 OPS+ against left handed pitching and could use that versatile right handed bat. I was really swayed by the report on the Sunday pregame show that Lewis was standing out among the prospects at the alternate site.
  9. jorgenswest
    Ultimately the staff needs to make a decision on whether any of these prospects can help. Should the staff make a decision based on what they see and measure from the work at the alternate site or make the decision based on 2019 data?
  10. jorgenswest
    I heard on the minor league report this morning that Lewis has been their best hitter at the alternate site. He bats right handed. He plays up the middle. The Twins need him now. Put him on the roster in place of Vargas. Play him in CF or 2B or 3B against left handed pitching. Bring back Donaldson with him and send back Cave or Wade. Find another right handed bat in Astudillo or Rooker or trade for a corner OF if they aren't a solution.
  11. jorgenswest
    I do agree with the part about strengthen the organization. At this point a trade for a starter might get them 5 starts or a reliever might get them 10 or so innings. The playoffs are expanded making it even more difficult to get to the World Series. I would not trade a good prospect without getting a player who really impacts 2021 also.
  12. jorgenswest
    I would like to think that Rosario is a valuable trade asset but he just doesn’t have excess value beyond his contract with a boost coming next year in arbitration. He is likely more valuable this year than next. He could be a candidate for a deal to a contender similar to Lawton for Reed but those trade partners are hard to find.
  13. jorgenswest
    Vargas 0-5 with 8 left on base. Ouch! i hope we see Arraez all of the Indian series.
  14. jorgenswest
    If they are on the road is the call up supposed to be someone on the 5 person taxi squad that travels with them? I wonder who is in that group of 5 for this trip.
  15. jorgenswest
    Do the Twins make this move if they think Donaldson will be back in any reasonable time frame?
  16. jorgenswest
    I am with Chief here. They needed bullpen help last year and should have had Pressly for the year. Maybe with Pressly they get home field advantage and never see the Yankees in the playoffs. The Twins should have had the foresight in 2018 to see the bullpen need and see that the team was ready to contend for 2019.
  17. jorgenswest
    I don’t think Garver is defending nearly as well this year. His passed ball and wild pitch rates are up, he is a 15th percentile framer thus far and his pop time was poor to begin with. Astudillo really can’t be significantly worse than that as a defender. I should add though there may be a hidden edge related to game calling and sequencing. At the plate he appears to have a different approach. Is it Donaldson in his ear that has shifted his approach? He needs to get different voices in his ear about batting and truly do a reset. A handful of days off may help is Astudillo is healthy and able to contribute.
  18. jorgenswest
    I need to hit you with the 10 games because data in a sample too small should not be used to make decisions about the future. it doesn’t matter that the season is shorter. The length of the season doesn’t change the size needed for a reliable sample. One piece does stand out to me is the xBA. His xBA IN 2019 was .292 and is .271 for 2020. Does that seem like a drastic change? Were his numbers last year skewed by a much higher than expected BABIP with this year the reverse is happening? Will he return to form? I don’t think it is certain that he ever abandoned his form. He puts a lot of balls in play and his results are always going to be BABIP driven and subject to significant variance due to sample.
  19. jorgenswest
    Do you get the Athletic? If you do go take a look at Eno Sarris’ early season quality of stuff report. Here are some notable Twins. Homer Bailey was ranked third behind Scherzer and Gray. Bailey was also among the biggest improvers from last year so it could stabilize or maybe Wes Johnson has a hand in the improvement. Sarris also listed his top 25 command+ for the season. One pitcher made both top 25 in quality of stuff and command+. Randy Dobnak. They are both likely to drop some but this is an encouraging start from the Twins 5th and 6th starters.
  20. jorgenswest
    Love how they used him mid game against the top of the order.
  21. jorgenswest
    This is not what I expected from Donaldson. Lack of hustle is awful message to teammates. No excuse.
  22. jorgenswest
    I like watching meaningful baseball games. I will be watching.
  23. jorgenswest
    Who had Aaron Whitefield on their opening day roster last spring or even last week?
  24. jorgenswest
    I think it is more important that the Twins spread out Rosario, Kepler and Arraez. This will Make it difficult to bring in a lefty like Cleveland’s Perez. As for who should lead off the three with Polanco have about the same ZIPS RC/27 projection. Arraez is the lowest of the 4 but it is close. I think I would have the lefties in slots 1,4,7 or possibly 2,5,8. If 147 I would lead off with Arraez and hit Kepler 4th. If 258 I would lead off with Polanco followed by Kepler with Arraez 8th.
  25. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the post. It does have me thinking about it. I think there are two key factors here that somehow need to be measured. 1) The number of years of control. The value of that player shouldn’t be calculated beyond those years. 2) The salary cost of that control. A 2 WAR player on a pre-ARB contract is a valuable asset for a team. That same 2 WAR player in year two or three of arbitration and earning 10 times the pre ARB salary is a marginal asset. One great deal was sending Liriano and his two months of control to the White Sox and getting all of Escobar’s control at a very low cost in his pre arb and arb seasons.
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