jorgenswest

The time to trade Berrios is now. He has much more value to a contending team than he has to the Twins the remainder of 2021. The potential for two playoffs with him than one adds value. In the off season there will be a supply of free agent pitchers lessening the demand. If he gets a significant injury in the last two months his value will crater. Pay up big and sign him or trade him. Do it this month,

I am not as concerned about Valimont’s walks as long as his K rate is also high. Almost 50% of the plate appearances against him result in a strikeout or walk. That only happens when batters have tremendous difficulty putting the ball in play. Instead of ending in a PA by weak contact they are more swings a,nd misses and that leads to long counts and an increase in both walks and strikeouts. Kevin Slowey was a top 100 prospect and walked very few in the minors. He sat at 25-30% strikeout plus walk rate in the minors. That 70-75% contact rate was a lot of weak contact in the minors but too much of it became hard contact in the majors. Without seeing them pitch and just looking at traditional data I am more encouraged by Valimont’s rate mix then a guy like Slowey.

I am inferring you believe a manager should intervene at this point and take his attention away from the game. I want a manager who stays in the game. Part of being in the game is using the data to make decisions. There are other threads about how much a manager should be relying on that data for decision making.

Any trade for Berrios needs to be Dominguez plus a guy like Garcia. BTV lists that trade as a moderate overpay on the Yankees part but any Berrios deal needs to be an overpay. The Twins might be better off finding a pitching prospect to headline any deal for Berrios. The Yankees might not be the best fit here.

I think a coach is the right person. Managers need to keep their head in the game and not what happened earlier. Rocco can address it in private if necessary after the game. Hopefully he will keep it private. This is part of what the Twins bought with Donaldson. Both he and Arraez are intense in the moment.

He can join all star Taylor Rogers as 11th round picks making an impact for the Twins.

I agree with the moving up. I also acknowledge that it can take a lot of starts and innings of overall struggle for a pitcher to reach their potential. It is hard for a team expecting to content to devote those innings. Instead they often turn to veterans. In most cases the floor for those veterans is a better outcome. This year was the exception. It can lead to a cycle of never building that foundation though as every year you need to find those veterans. How many here want to trade for a 23 year old in AA and wait four or five years? That was the Indians and Kluber. The acquired him in 2009. He really struggled in 2011 and 2012. He wasn’t anything special in 2013 but he was giving them what the Twins might have hoped from a Happ or Hill. He was an ace the next 5 years. How many here would trade for a good 22 year old prospect and then wait out a 5.29 ERA spread out over 5 years from ages 22 to 26? That was the Indians and Carlos Carrasco. He bounced back and forth to the majors from 2009 to 2013 with little success. In 2014 most of his appearances were from the bullpen. He was a valuable member of the rotation the next 5 years. Would we keep investing starts in a top prospect who begins their career 18-24 with a 4.50 ERA (64 starts over 4 years) and leads the league in walks in their fourth year? The Indians traded for Bauer in 2013 and waited 5 years and 729 innings before getting his first season with an ERA under 4. Are we ready to invest 700+ innings into a pitcher? The Rays didn’t have to wait that long for Glasnow. They picked up what appeared to be a failed prospect from the Pirates who were unwilling to wait after three years and 91 walks in 141 innings. How excited are we going to be acquiring a pitcher whose ERA as a starter was over 7 the previous two seasons? How long should we expect to wait after this year before getting payoff from the prospects in the trade? Has it already been too long a wait from the 2018 trades? I am willing to wait it out to build that foundation. I want those 4th and 5th spots to go to their prospects. Last year I advocated for struggling with Thorpe, Smeltzer and Dobnak rather than Hill and Bailey. I would have continued to struggle with Romero a few years back. I would plan to give starts to young pitchers in the 4 and 5 spots next year and I would expect them to struggle and risking the possibility of the playoffs. I would expect struggle in 2023 also. I just don’t see any other way for a mid to small market team to build the foundation of a pitching staff.

I think the Braves trade for Pederson also demonstrates why the demand for Cruz is limited and the return minimal. The Braves have a need after losing Acura for a short term outfield replacement. They gather their list of possibilities they should target and Cruz isn’t on that list.

Luzardo should be targeted. It is the kind of return they should seek for Rogers. BTV won’t like it but the demand for really good late inning left handed relief help will be greater than the supply. Luzardo and Trenien were traded from Washington to Oakland a few years ago for Sean Doolittle. BR shows Doolittle as the most similar pitcher to Rogers through age 30. They might combine Cruz with Garver and cash to try to get Luzardo. The Twins need to find someone that sees Cruz as the difference maker. In 1987 the Twins added Don Baylor. In games 6 and 7 of the World Series he was on base in 6 of 8 plate appearances with a home run. Cruz can have that kind of impact in the dugout and at the plate.

Keeping Robles would be a mistake. His xFIP has been poor the entire year and the ERA is moving towards his xFIP. Colome has been better. Duffy has been better. Alcala has been better. In the last 5 years he has had one year where his xFIP was below league average and one where his walk rate was under 10%. I can’t imagine any projection for 2022 would change that path.

Toronto has the prospect capital to win the trade for Berrios. It should take both Pearson and Richardson-Woods and a lottery ticket pick to win a deal for Berrios. Any deal for Berrios needs to be an overpay. The same is true for Rogers where they should set the bar at one of those starting pitchers. BTV may reject these deals but only way the Twins should make this deal is if it is a clear win.

As I think about any move I think about the lens of either 2022 or 2023 and beyond. I acknowledge that the money will help address a starting pitcher and/or shortstop for 2022. I also foresee a gutted bullpen. It is hard to view any trade of Rogers through the lens of truly contending in 2022. Rogers is one of their best trade assets. He is also the only late inning arm under control they can count on next year. I would set the bar high in a trade and only move him for a young starting pitching prospect with the lens on 2023 and beyond. I need to be blown away and BTV will see assess it as “not accepted” as it does in a trade for a guy like Nick Abel. Sustained success depends on young controllable starting pitching. They must use their best assets to acquire that pitching.

Could the down sized minor leagues dropping lower level leagues like the Appalachian League add to what is driving teams to focus on college? Look at the paths of a couple of high school guys drafted in 2016. Tyler Benninghoff(11th round) and Kidany Salva(17th round) we’re still playing with Elizabethton in 2019. That path just doesn’t exist any more. These players will need to go to college, JC or the independent leagues to develop their game. The draft in 2016 was relatively high school heavy for the Twins. It took all of those earlier high selections some time to get to Cedar Rapids. Only Rortvedt(2nd) made it in 2017. Kirilloff(1st), Miranda(2nd), Baddoo(2nd) and Balazovic(5th) arrived at low A in 2018. All but Balazovic played with Elizabethton first. This is the path for high school prospects drafted early in the draft. Where is the path for the players drafted later?

How extreme were the 2019 and 2020 staffs?

No. That isn't what I said.

The best bet on a take that proves to be right is to be critical of the picks. Players picked 26th and 36th rarely have significant major league careers. The path to the majors is too long and can easily be derailed by injury. The best bet is to take the failed pick side. I haven’t watched either of these guys play but have these two thoughts. It might be the right time to go with the raw arm talent over any Rapsado data. Spider tack isn’t going to help anyone hit 102. There is a lot of flexibility in picking a switch hitting high school shortstop. There are so many paths from there to develop into a role on a major league team.

Pick 26 trivia… The best high school pitcher drafted 26th is Jeremy Bonderman. He comes up in Moneyball with Billy Beane throwing a chair at the wall in disgust after Grady Fusin used their first pick to draft a high school pitcher. They did get some value for him as he was part of a package that brought back Ted Lilly in a deadline deal. Bonderman was drafted in 2001 and arrived at the majors in 2003. He finished with 4.9 career WAR which is the 5th most for players drafted 26th. Alan Trammell is a Hall of Famer drafted in this spot. He arrived at the majors quickly after being drafted. The two other players with lengthy major league careers are Dave Henderson and Dan Plesac. The Twins selected Dan Serafini as a high school pitcher in this spot. He was drafted in 1992 and it took 5 years before he arrived in a 1997 as a September call up. Players drafted in this spot can also be an asset in trade. Daniel Schlereth was part of the three team Curtis Granderson deal. Bryan Morris was part of a deal for Manny Ramirez. Very few players drafted 26th have had a significant major league career. The Twins drafted an arm talent with elite velocity. It is on them develop that talent into an asset.

36th pick trivia… The last an only player to be drafted as a HS shortstop in this spot and make it to the majors was Leo Foster by the Braves. It took him 5 years to arrive. Ryan Mountcastle was selected in this spot as a HS SS in 2015 arriving in 2020. He is now a 1B/LF/DH but they kept him at SS through 2017. Johnny Bench was the best HS player drafted 36th. It didn’t take him long to arrive. The other Hall of Famer from this spot is Randy Johnson. There is a big drop off to Erik Hanson and Stephen Piscotty after those two. A few players had significant impact though their major league careers were not stellar. Jarrod Saltalamacchia was the top prospect in the Mark Texiera trade. The Yankees used Tim Birtsas as part of the trade to get Rickey Henderson. Developing into a top 100 prospect and trade is probably the quickest route to impact. The reality is very few players at pick 36 make any impact. The Twins have a talent here and it is on them to develop that talent into an asset.

My apologies to the thread for going down this path. I should have not taken the bait. I gave an honest response and of course it is a stretch. A mid to small market team isn’t ever going to have the best roster. A whole bunch of things need to go their way to be successful in the playoffs. The reality will be a stretch. You give yourself a much better shot with Pressly in the pen as opposed to cheap alternatives in Parker and Dyson. Pressly was already performing at a high level at the time of the trade. The margins for any team but particularly one without the assets of a large market. Now in a desperate attempt to get this back on track which was the point of my original post. It is way too early to say Alcala’s time is up. The sample is too small (particularly FIP) to support conclusions about his future and there is enoug in his pitch mix to offer encouragement for the future.

This is silliness but if they had Pressly 2019… Would they have had home field advantage with Pressly over the Blake Parker failure as a closer? Would it have made a difference? The Twins tied things up in the top of the 5th of game 1 and Berrios is taken out. The best they have to bring in is Zach Littell who doesn’t get an out. If the bullpen is deeper can they bring in Duffey? Pressly? If Pressly is the closer do they use Rogers in that spot? If the Twins win in game 1 at home does that change the direction of the series? There was also collateral damage… The reality is that the Twins needed bullpen help when they traded Pressly For 2019. In order to fill the hole they signed Blake Parker and released him before the deadline and traded for Sam Dyson. Dyson was a disaster. He also cost them Davis, Berroa and Ting. Davis has an OPS of 1172 in AAA at 26 this year. Berroa is in San Jose with 57 K’s in 41 innings and a 3.24 ERA. Ting is struggling mightily with command but has 59 K’s in 40 innings. For the trade to be a success it should be judged do we need to factor in the performance of the trio we lost trying to fill the hole created with the Pressly trade?

The Twins had control of Pressly in 2018-2019. He could have made a difference to that 2019 team and the Twins will need Alcala or Celestino to have that one season where they are a difference maker on a contending team. Of course it isn’t time to give up on a pitcher with 59 career major league innings. I hope the Twins are not even looking at a FIP for a reliever to make this decision. FIP uses home run rate as part of its calculation. Pitcher home run rate needs a very large sample size before it stabilizes. It takes a reliever several years to get there. As a single season measure for a reliever it is pretty useless and the data cited above was for a partial season. xFIP uses strikeout and walk rates which stabilize in a much smaller sample and give a better picture over a full season for a reliever. At this point Alcala’s xFIP is 4.23 on a team with a xFIP of 4.37. His xFIP is better than that of Duffey(4.50), Colome(4.46) or Robles(4.58). We didn’t trade a Robles or Colome to get Alcala. We traded Pressly who had an xFIP of 2.21 in the control season of 2019. At the time of the trade in 2018 he had an xFIP of 2.85 for the Twins. Little fixing was needed. We need that kind of performance from Alcala in his prime seasons. Note: xFIP uses strikeout and walk rates which stabilize at 70 and 170 batters faced respectively. The four Twin relievers above have a range of 131(Alcala) to 163(Robles) batters faced.

Trading Rogers now would be selling high. His value won’t be greater in the off-season when their is a supply of free agents and he has one year of control left. It won’t be greater next July. Extend him instead? At 30 and with control through 31 he is not a good extension candidate. Someone will be paying for the decline that will come with his next contract. If the reason to sell now is to sell high then the Twins need to set a high bar. They need a team to pay up or they need to hold this valuable asset.

The asking price for Berrios should be sky high. It should take an overpay. The same is true for Rogers and Buxton.

Wouldn’t the supply be greater in the off-season with free agency? Teams will also have prospects who have yet to fail and starters yet to be injured. I suppose the demand would be greater with more buyers but the number of teams that would take on Donaldson’s contract will be limited in season or not. Miranda is close. I would trade Donaldson now, play Miranda next year and redirect any savings towards Berrios or Buxton or pitching.

I think the two options are all in for 2022 or set your sites of 2023 and beyond. All In- the Twins need pitching and lots of it. The all in plan sells off the best prospects for players who can make an impact next year while Rogers, Donaldson, Buxton and Berrios are in team control. Trade guys like Winder, Balazovic, Duran, Lewis and Miranda to bring in pitching. They can’t expected to be impact players next year and the core leaves after 2022. the Twins need to spend all of their resources to improve the 2022 roster. Fold and focus on the next window- the Twins needs at pitching are so great that it can’t be fixed to build a World Series contender next year. Trade off all expiring assets. Trade off Rogers, Duffey, Garver who will be 32 and likely in decline in 2022. Don’t pay for their decline. Trade Donaldson. Offer Buxton and Berrios deals they shouldn’t refuse. If they do trade them now. Plan for the growing pains of young players like Winder, Balazovic, Duran, Lewis, Miranda and some acquired by trade. Let them try to pitch out of jams even though they will fail too often. Play them through rough patches. Set the foundation for the next open window. I think this window has closed. The worst path to me is trying to compete by trading expiring assets this year for a marginal return in attempt to be competitive next year only to fail to make or advance in playoffs. The Twins are left in 2023 with no Buxton, Berrios or Rogers and little foundation to move forward.