jorgenswest

I get the argument that there is a too significant gap to close to contend against the Yankees and Astros. The argument follows that the Twins should not trade off the future chasing a dream that isn’t reasonably attained. I am not posting to debate that argument. I would argue there is significant value in pursuing the central division and winning a playoff series. I think that is attainable. To have a fighting chance they will need to add a starter at the top of the rotation and two back end relievers. The prospect cost will hurt particularly to get that starter (Winder, Larnach, Woods Richardson plus other marginal prospects?). A generation of fans have not seen a playoff series win and many haven’t seen a win in a playoff game. They need to see a playoff series win. It has to start there. Doesn’t it?

I am not sure Verlander counts as Houston was doing well and would have made a strong run without him. He was 5-0 in his 5 starts down the stretch as well as ALCS MVP. Do they make it by the Yankees without him?

Did you know that batters 7 through 9 in the order have an OPS against Bundy of .582? The top two hitters in the order have an OPS against of .994. It probably isn’t that shocking as the top of the order is way better than the bottom of the order. This has significant meaning for his split of 55 batters faced the third time through the order. Of those 55 a total of 5 are from the bottom three spots in the order. The top two spots have seen him a third time 23 times. The data for the third time through is made up almost entirely of the best hitters. Of course Bundy will do much worse in that context. Do you wonder why we don’t here the same in context of hitters? You would expect a veteran like Correa to have a real advantage seeing a pitcher the third time through. The first time Correa is facing a pitcher this year his OPS is .962. The third time it is .724. Wouldn’t it be wise to pinch hit for Correa in this situation? Clearly the pitcher has figured something out the first two at bats. It is the same with Kepler. He really falls off the third time through to .564. The reality is the data set is skewed for each. The data set for pitchers the third time through is mostly the top part of the order and the better hitters. It is the same for batters. The set of pitchers that make it to them a third time is going to be the better pitchers or a pitcher really on top of his game that day. It probably is more extreme for Kepler hitting further down in the line up. OPS also needs a pretty large sample size so that variance also plays in. Is Bundy going to have trouble with the top of the order? Absolutely. He will have trouble with them the first, second and third time he sees them. I don’t think the data says that his third time against the same top of the order will be significantly more troublesome.

Take the deal. Some would argue that it may not be enough to beat the Yankees and Astros and we should not deal the future. I think there is value in winning the central and winning a playoff series against the wild card. I think an addition to the top of the rotation helps the Twins get there.

I had to reread the article. I guess I did not equate “I believe he has a decent chance…” with confident or even likely. It didn’t really move my thoughts about the Twins position on Sano. I think I was already at a place of decent chance where I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened. He did show confidence that they aren’t trading Correa.

There are rumors of trading for Robertson. He has blown 5 of 18 this year. Puk has blown 6 of 19 in 63 career innings but that wasn’t the point of my original comment in the thread . It was much simpler about selling low. I am still glad they did not sell low on him after two bad stints in the minors. I am also glad they didn’t sell low on Lewis or Duran who were the other two in my short original response. All of the rest of this rabbit hole is because a respondent thought I meant Alcantara instead of Alcala.

I wonder if the chance increases if they add a starter like Montas with 2023 control.

They might need to trade Winder with Larnach in any deal to get one of the top starters moved at the deadline. I would do it. It would be a good use of the pipeline.

I think since the cost of acquisition was low in a rental DH and he wasn’t listed as a top 100 prospect I think they should get credit.

I agree. The early years of the respected Cleveland pipeline included several trade acquisitions like Kluber, Carrasco and Bauer.

I simply pointed out there are players of value that had bad stretches that I am glad they didn’t sell low on and super confused why I was slammed with a bunch of Alcantara stuff. Best that we add each other our ignore lists. I think Alcala is the kind of bullpen piece the Twins need and hopefully he will be healthy for the stretch run and playoffs. I am glad they didn’t sell low. He isn’t made of gold but a winning roster will need a farm system that produces valuable pieces even if they aren’t so elite.

Alcala. He plays for the Twins. Though he is injured I am glad they didn’t sell low on him after two bad minor league stints.

It is worth watching how Boston comes out of the break. At 38.8% it seems unlikely they would deal but if that drops in the 20s it is possible.

It is just a half season. I would be happy to buy either player cheaply if I were another team. I am glad they didn’t sell low on Lewis who am a similar WRC+ in a season that stuck with him the next two years. I am glad they didn’t sell low on Duran with his injury filled shortened year of an ERA of 5.06 and almost a walk an inning. Alcala had ERAs of 5.85 and 5.87 his first two years in the organization. I am glad they stuck with him.

Someone smart made this valuable resource. https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/twins Look for rule 5 status listed as DEC’22 or R5 if previously reached that level.

He has earned this opportunity. It had to be a tremendous amount of work and sacrifice to get to the majors. Hamilton was selected in the 23rd round at pick 693. Only 1 other player has signed and made it to the majors from pick 693. Stephen Smitherman was drafted by the Reds and played 21 games hitting .159. I hope he makes the most of his opportunity.

One of the reasons citing the need to trade prospects is the coming roster crunch. Is it real? It seems like so many players might not be worth tendering or keeping on the 40. Others will be free agents. I think there are 48 players on the 40 when counting the 60 day. Duffey Pagán Theilbar Smith Coulombe Romero Cano Cotton Dobnak Megill Stashak Strotman Enlow Sanchez Godoy Hamilton Correa Urshela Sano Contreras I am not suggesting they should all be removed but all might be in consideration or are free agents. Is there really a roster crunch?

In that case do you trade Correa and build for the next few years? I guess the other option is to trade off some of the future and add a few bullpen arms in hopes of making the regular season more competitive. I would go big either by adding the best starter moved at the deadline as well as a few good relievers or I would trade Correa.

The Twins are competing with the Yankees, Astros and so on for the same players. BTV grades out the trade I posted as a fair deal. In order to beat other offers and win the deal they may need to overpay by upgrading the Strotman part of the deal.

I think the Twins would need to include a pitcher in the deal. The only pitcher currently in the minors with significant value (according to BTV) is Winder. If the Twins package Larnach and Winder and add Strotman it is a competitive deal. In order to win the deal they would need to upgrade the Strotman piece.

I think they may have done that and maybe that is what you are stating. Was their purpose of any under slot picks in rounds 3-10 to gather enough savings to pay Prielipp in round 2 over his slot amount?

If that is the case should the Twins have worked out a similar deal at 8 and 68? I like the three they chose but pitching is scarce.

Keith Law lists two catchers in his top 10 for day 2. Ike Irish and Jared Jones are both high school picks so they would be a long way away from helping. Malcolm Morre, another high school pick, is listed among the best remaining in MLB. The reality is it takes longer for catchers to develop. They can’t really fix a current depth problem with a pick today. Jeffers was a 2018 pick. Few catchers have made it to the majors from that draft and no one has more WAR than Jeffers. They can help the minor league depth issue in taking one of the high school catchers but they may not be ready to contribute until near the end of the decade.

I believe all three runners that scored got on base on a ball where Urshela had a chance to make a play. In the 4th Moncada hit a dribbler towards 3B. Urshela bare handed the ball but then his throw pulled Arraez off the bag. Moncada later scored. In the 6th Anderson hit a ball to Urshela’s right who gets a glove on it. I thought this one should have been an error. Moncada then hit a blooper down the line. Urshela chased it down and got a glove on it but couldn’t secure it. Both runners came around to score. Three earned runs credited. I think a major league 3B should the routine play and one of the other two on a typical day. Very good defensive 3Bs make all three plays. I thought in a typical Urshela day he would make two of the plays but maybe it is time for me to start believing the metrics that have him with a mediocre glove. He certainly did not pass the eye test yesterday.

I am convinced about the pitcher. In a draft where no pitchers may go in the top 10 I think the Twins should go against the trend. There are pitchers in this draft that will be valuable major league pitchers. The Twins need to identify one and may be choosing from the entire pool.