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Elliot

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Everything posted by Elliot

  1. Elliot
    “The Twins’ lineup is far from elite, lacking a true right-handed power threat …”. ????? Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Miranda, Jeffers That is 50% of the lineup. I know durability is an issue, but who do you sit if you use your pitching wealth to acquire a high end RH bat and end up with a relatively healthy lineup? Not ideal but this is reality for the team.
  2. Elliot
    Lee, Martin, and Julien will be given every opportunity to succeed, not based on their draft status but on their 40 man status. They can be sent down to AAA (not sure of Martin’s options status) but need to remain on the 40. Removing them exposes them to loss. It is not a simple swap for Eeles to be brought up. Losing any of those players on waivers would hurt. Give them the 1,000 AB’s or so that TK was so fond of referencing before you write them off. I am glad to see that there isn’t a lot of talk about Eeles at SS. From what I saw for the Saints, although willing I do not think he has the tools to play SS at the MLB level. It is a tools issue, not height. I go far enough back to remember Freddie Patel with the Royals.
  3. Elliot
    I was going to mention Miller but had gone on too long already. First and foremost, a SS needs to be able to play defense. Offense is a bonus. Same for catcher. A good offensive player at either position who is below average defensively is a net negative.
  4. Elliot
    The above is the reason why good offensive/defensive shortstops are so highly paid. When someone is signed as a SS you keep them there until they show they can’t handle it. It is the peak of the defensive pyramid. Hindsight is perfect but projection into the future is more difficult. I recall Polanco, and one other SS, I think either Rivas or Santana, being brought up from A or AA to play SS at the MLB level because they were thought to be major league ready defensively, but unclear if they would ever hit enough. Turns out they were fine offensively but lacking on the defensive side. I am fine with Lewis and Lee being left at SS in the minors since it would clearly be their highest value if they could stick there. Now that the decision has been made that they are not adequate at SS, or at least are not going to displace Correa, make a decision at a new position and let them develop. Dozier (a former SS) at 2B and Gaetti and Koskie at 3B are good examples of players who developed into very good defensive players once they were given the coaching and reps necessary. By the way, this discussion is the reason I have been a big proponent of Kim from San Diego being my first choice of a FA to pursue. Good defensive SS’s who can also hit are really hard to find.
  5. Elliot
    The unfortunate reality for the Twins is that they do not have the budget to build a team in the same way as the larger market/budget organizations. 2025 will sink or swim based on the health of the big 3 on offense, the continued development of young veterans, and the emergence of rookies. In terms of rookies, Prielipp sits along side of Lee, Rodriguez, Festa, Matthews, Raya, … as potential breakout contributors. Personally I have no problem with any young pitcher getting his MLB career under way in the BP. To me it is similar to Lee and Lewis, minor league SS’s getting started at different positions. It will work itself out if they have ML ability.
  6. Elliot
    Defense is really a slippery evaluation. I think it is a common view that the Twins in general were a poor defensive team in 2024. Personal opinion is that it resulted from injuries to the three big stars, necessitating the aggressive promotion of some players, and others playing out of position. Hopefully that will be addressed this year by having someone capable of playing at least average MLB defense at CF and SS. So what about catcher? Defensive metrics, questionable at best overall really seem to fail us when looking at catchers. In general Vazquez is seen as better than Jeffers, but how big is the gap? How about Carmargo? Is he good, is he horrible, is he passable? I think I have seen all three assessments on these pages. Now the new guy. When we first got him I read the following here at TD. “His defense has never been his calling card, though he has improved with his pitch-calling and framing in recent seasons, and his arm has always been regarded as above-average.“ Not exactly a ringing endorsement. Now in the above discussions I get the feeling he might be MLB ready defensively right now but needs some work on hitting. I think we are probably best served by waiting for the evaluators who work with the catchers on a daily basis to make the call. Overall I believe that for the Twins to have a successful 2025 they will need to be strong defensively up the middle (not exactly a novel idea). The best way for that to happen is for Buxton and Correa to remain healthy. Short of that the Twins need to make sure that they have solid defensively replacements on board. Hopefully they can contribute offensively, but that should not be the main consideration. Same thought should apply to catching.
  7. Elliot
    If they decide to spend anything, I believe their biggest need is someone who can fill in at shortstop if Correa is out for any length of time. I like Kim from SD, but probably too spendy. As of now they have no one on the 40 man or close to it who has any business being at MLB SS for any extended period if Correa goes down. If they keep Kersey they have someone to play CF if Buxton sits. Choosing a spot, either 3rd or 2nd for Lewis and giving him an offseason and ST there should help. Same for Lee at the one Lewis isn’t at. Both are young enough, and good enough infielders that they should be at least average, hopefully somewhat above, if given the routine and repetitions. I think the biggest problem last year was lack of consistent, dependable defensive play. Not so much poor defenders, but everyone playing out of position. Utility players like Castro and Martin have value in their ability to fill in at a lot of spots. Unfortunately they tend to lose value when slotted into one spot for a long stretch.
  8. Elliot
    No matter who they sign or trade for, or if no moves are made, the season will depend on the health of 3 veterans (Buxton, Correa, and Lewis), and the maturation of a half dozen young veterans. To be fair, Lewis fits in both groups. Throw in a couple of rookies (Lee and Rodriguez), and I have a great deal of hope and optimism. I know that health for the big 3 is very optimistic, but a season where 2 out of the 3 are contributing regularly is not out of the question. Same for the young vets. Half to 2/3 of them performing at or near what their past peak shows as legitimate potential looks pretty good. I know we all would like to see a bright shiny new toy, but it probably isn’t happening. Also keep in mind that $130M inflation adjusted is right in the range of where they have been for the past decade. The $150 to $160 year was an outlier.
  9. Elliot
    Echoing a number of the above. Not opposed to moving Duran to improve the team but this doesn’t seem like enough. They seem interchangeable with the AAA options the Twins have to fill those spots.
  10. Elliot
    My understanding is there are two monetary concerns. The first, international bonus pool restricting what we can pay the player, helps us. We can offer as much as anyone. I think there is a second part that I know nothing about. Are there restrictions on what we can offer the posting team?
  11. Elliot
    I am getting older and my memory isn’t what it once was, but I recall the early assessments of Polanco as a young prospect being “defensively he is ready for MLB right now. The question is whether he will be able to hit. “ Now as he turns 30 the view has flipped. A good hitter who is moving to the right (SS to 2B to 1B to DH). Still a good hitter but with questionable defensive value. As young prospects develop their bodies and minds go in unpredictable directions. Sano and Miranda were both drafted as SS’s, although never with the MLB ready defense assessment. As a few folks have mentioned, just give them time. If they avoid their bodies breaking down (Buxton, Kubel) or their heads getting in the way (Sano, Oswaldo Arcia) all 3 have bright futures.
  12. Elliot
    I know this will trigger some strong responses, but I think one issue that is being missed is the current infatuation with strikeouts. No stats to back it up, but gut feel is that a typical AB that ends in a K will require 5+ pitches. The heart of the “pitch to contact”, or more accurately “pitch to weak contact” philosophy popular during the Terry Ryan tenure was to limit the number of pitches. Retire hitters on 2 or 3 pitches resulting in fly out/groundouts rather than chasing high K totals. The end result, ideally, is lower pitch counts per inning and therefore longer starts in innings for the same number of pitches. it is great to have “strikeout stuff” when you need one but too much focus on K’s throughout the game may be part of the problem. l look forward to the flow of stats that either support or dispute this idea.
  13. Elliot
    For quite some time, representatives of the Twins have been trying to convince me that I can afford a season ticket package, but to no avail. I have held strong on the view that it is my money and I get to decide what I can and cannot afford. I have made an agreement with the team that if they agree not to try to tell me what I can afford I will extend the same courtesy to them.
  14. Elliot
    I think he started his Twins minor league career as a catcher.
  15. Elliot
    Positionless players is not a good term when grouping these players together. I am fine with Lee, Lewis, Salas, and Martin being grouped together. Each is a high end athlete still holding out out hope of reaching the majors as a shortstop, probably the highest value defensive position other than catcher. Rodriguez is similar as a potential CF who will likely be an above average corner OF as he grows. Julien doesn’t fit here. He is more accurately lumped in with Sabato or other truly “positionless prospects”. That is not to say he has no value, just that his value comes primarily from offensive production. The same could be said for Rod Carew and Louis Arraez, two players who performed quite well for the Twins. it is not likely that the 3 shortstop prospects will all play that position on a regular basis in the bigs. There is a good chance none will if Correa’s ankle holds up. However, all three have the potential of being above average defensive players at other key positions (2B, 3B, CF). Just a closing comment regarding youngsters starting out at SS. I recall a comment made a few years ago, following the signing of two young Ss’s. Sano will outgrow the position, but Polanco is good enough defensively to hold his own in the majors right now. Right about Sano; probably overly optimistic regarding Polanco. It can be very tough to predict the defensive home for teenage and early 20’s players. Body development and physical breakdowns play a very big part.
  16. Elliot
    I love the idea of a prospect having to beat out a veteran for playing time. Too often in the past young Twins have been thrust into roles because there was no other option. Shouldn’t be the case this year. I am baffled by an undercurrent in some comments that implies the FO is subversively working against youngsters to keep them from succeeding. There is no more valuable asset to a team than a young player on team controlled salary producing at the MLB level. If anything, there should be a conspiracy theory regarding the FO squeezing out expensive older players. The reality is that the FO is trying to win and is held accountable for decisions, unlike all of us here in comment land. After rushing players like Celestino and Jeffers in the past they now have to defend still having belief in them. One, or more likely a number, of the youngsters we want rapidly promoted will fail badly, at least initially. Let them progress at their own pace and only move them up when they have shown they have earned it.
  17. Elliot
    Competition is never a bad thing. If the season starts with Ober in the St Paul rotation that means that either Ober did not perform, or the veteran starters were healthy and outperformed him. Same story with Larnach, Kiriloff, Julien, Martin, Lee, ... It really comes down to production over potential. Nothing wrong with that, especially if the young guys have options remaining and it doesn't force someone valuable off the 40 man roster. I think that fans all dream about the young player that bursts on the scene in ST and forces the hand of management. That's fun, but it doesn't really happen that often, and it is fool's gold to plan on it. There is probably more potential of that happening in the SP rotation than with everyday players. Ober, Varland, and SWR have all worked their way up thru AAA and made an appearance at the MLB level. There are actually no young position players other than Matt Wallner, and Celestino who can make that statement and are not huge question marks health wise. I hope that Kiriloff and Larnach are starters at the LB level when camp breaks. That would mean that they are healthy and have outperformed their competition. However; if either of them stumbles due to health or performance we seem to have some pretty good options this year. The June/July timeframe is huge this year. By that time Lewis should be ready to be back in consideration, and Julien, Martin, Lee, Celestino, and Wallner will have had the opportunity to show what they can (or cannot) do at the AAA level. There is then the trade deadline options of moving veterans or youngsters if need be. The most foolish move is to jump the gun on someone like Lee or Martin not currently on the 40 man roster.
  18. Elliot
    If all of the pitchers are healthy (a big if for every team not just the Twins), I think the best move is to put Maeda into the BP. He has a lot of experience there during his Dodger years. In addition, it would probably help limit his innings total and overall workload. Switching between starting and relieving can be very difficult, especially for young pitchers. The difference in mindset and day to day prep seems to mess with some younger players. Ober, Winder, Sands, and others are currently potential MLB starters, one of the most valuable commodities in a system. Switching a young pitcher is generally not a temporary move Duran, Jax, and others are not moving back to the rotation. You hear the theory that teams should use them to reinforce the bullpen early in their careers and then return them to the rotation later. I am sure there are examples of that working, but I can think of a number of situations where it didn’t go well. Moving back and forth seems to be tough on arms and careers. More than likely health concerns will dictate who breaks camp in the starting rotation. But if not, my preference is to see Maeda in the pen rather than one of the younger players, unless the decision makers clearly see no future as a starter for the youngster.
  19. Elliot
    “Would the team consider a six-man rotation to keep players healthy? ” I assume that the motivation behind a 6 man rotation is the health and protection of the starters. How exactly does that play out? The current approach seems to be that a starter goes 5, maybe 6, innings. I think the concept is not facing hitters 3 times. Relievers are brought in for no more than 1 inning. The result is one starter and 3 or 4 relievers per game. A reliever appearing every other game ends up with 80 appearances, a really high number. 3 or 4 relievers every other day means you need 6 to 8 relievers all cranking out 80 appearances. Going to 6 starters robs a roster spot from either the BP or position players. Something has to give, and I don’t think the St Paul shuttle is the answer since, although it spreads those appearances over more players, it is limited to players with options or a lot of DFA’s. If the limiting factor is “not facing hitters 3 times in a game” rather than innings or pitch count, maybe they ought to consider a 4 man rotation; 4 starters throwing 5 to 6 innings (70 -80 pitches), backed up by 3 or 4 relievers who can be expected to carry half that load every 3 or 4 days. You will have the occasional game with a starter going 7+ or getting knocked out early, but overall you set yourself up for a schedule that gets you through 7 or 8 innings before going to your 1 inning guys. I know there are arguments against that approach, but I just don’t see how 5 starters going 5 or 6 innings each, backed up by 8 relievers who never throw more than 1 inning can work. A 6 man rotation only makes it worse if they are faced with the same inning/pitch count/times thru the order limits.
  20. Elliot
    When I was a young Twins fan I asked the same about Harmon Killebrew. Bad outfielder, bad 3B, OK 1B. Why not catcher. Then it was explained to me that catcher was the most challenging defensive position on the field which also wore the individual down and diminished their offensive skills. Glad Harmon didn’t listen.
  21. Elliot
    Was that actually a Monty Python reference in a TD post?
  22. Elliot
    I agree that Kiriloff is a key to the Twins 2023 offense. A healthy version is probably a powerful middle of the order bat, as well as an above average defensive presence. A continuation of the wrist issues probably effectively ends his career. If he is healthy, then the Gallo/Miranda backup idea is good. An occasional fill-in at 1B is probably a good thing for both in terms of future roles and versatility. However, in the case of a major problem for AK, I would prefer some other option as a full time solution. My suggestion for that scenario is a player already on the roster, Jorge Polanco. Although this might seem like a return to the issue that was there with Arraez, I do believe it is different. Polanco is not the contact hitter that Arraez is (nobody is), but he is a much more complete hitter who better fits the corner inf profile. 20 to 30 home runs and a high RBI total is a reasonable expectation for a healthy Polanco. Defensively, who knows? Arraez became a border-line GG at 1B in what was essentially a trial by fire. Can Polanco do the same; maybe. He is an average 2B who should be able to handle the switch, especially if he is given some reps in ST. The important similarity with Arraez is ongoing leg problems, something that hopefully could be helped by a switch to a less demanding spot. The real key to this option is not Polanco, but the potential replacements at 2B. The safe bets are Farmer and Gordon, both relatively proven players with some limited upside, but fairly established floors. Defensively Farmer may be an upgrade but Gordon's SSS leaves some questions. The downside being that either becoming a regular lessens the utility player pool. The young unproven options with considerable upside potential are Julien and Lewis (already on the 40 man) and Lee and Martin who are not yet on the 40 man, or even at AAA, but could be ready early or mid year. Since 3 of the 4 young options are probably not really available until June or so, this really opens the door for Julien to grab an opportunity to break camp with the big team if Kiriloff struggles health wise. I am definitely hoping that Kiriloff is able to make it back and have a long productive career. He seems to have star potential aplenty. However, for the sake of all of the names above I think it would be wise to start the Polanco experiment sooner rather than later.
  23. Elliot
    There are basically 2 types of players who have no defensive home. One group is those who really can not play any defensive position well and are totally dependent on their offensive abilities to succeed at the MLB level. Brent Rooker, Kennys Vargas, and probably Aaron Sabato are examples of those whose bats will not carry them. David Ortiz is one where it could and did. The other group is those who have the skills to play the most challenging defensive positions at the minor league or high school/college level but fall a little short of being able to handle it at the MLB level. Many position players start out at SS because they are the most skilled athletes on the team. As the competition increases and bodies develop, some players (Gary Sheffield, Miguel Sano) move to other, less demanding positions. Others continue at SS with the hope that they can provide at least average defense at the most demanding defensive position (other than catcher) on the field. If their bats continue to produce, these type of players become tremendous assets, either as super utility players (Chris Taylor, Trea Turner, ...); or eventually as full time at SS or other positions where they provide defensive value. Bottom line - prospects like Royce Lewis, Austin Martin, Brooks Lee, and Jose Salas are the gold in the Twins minor league system. They can't all be the Twins starting shortstop, but my guess is there is an all star, gold glove 3B, 2B, or CF in the group. They are kept at SS thru the minor league progression because, outside of a potential ace SP or possibly a high end offensive/defensive catcher, there is no greater trade chip than a decent SS who can hit.
  24. Elliot
    Barring trades, you can probably eliminate anyone not currently on the 40 man. The most likely spot to see a rookie break camp with the team is the bullpen. Again, looking at the 40 man roster gives the following names: Balazovic, Canterino (later in the year), Headrick, Henriquez, Winder, Sands, and SWR. Any injury that puts a pitcher on the 60 day IL (likely) could open a 40 man spot for another young reliever. Position players will be more dependent on injuries, trades, or total performance meltdowns resulting in a DFA and an opening on the 40 man. The 40 man contains options for the outfield that should allow for shuffling between the bigs and AAA; however I believe all have already made their initial appearance at the major league level. In the infield the only player currently on the 40 man roster who has not seen time in the bigs is Julien, making him a logical choice for first rookie position player to make an appearance. His biggest holdup is the dreaded "no defensive home" label. I would think they would be hesitant to bring him up for any extended play anywhere other than 2B or DH. That could change if he starts the year at AAA playing various positions to gain some level of familiarity. Lewis (later in the year) is also a 40 man option and has a bit more experience playing other positions (mainly 3B and OF) in the minors and AFL. Martin and Lee, along with Lewis, share the "no defensive home" label hung on Julien; however, in my opinion it differs from it being applied to Julien. I think Juien is similar to Arraez in that he doesn't really have the skillset to shine anywhere other than possibly 1B. It sounds as if the other 3 have defensive abilities. The question with the 3 current SS is whether they have the chops to stick there or if they will have to move to another spot. All 3 sound as if they have athleticism to be above average performers at 2B, 3B, or OF (including CF for Martin and Lewis). Overall, it appears that the young position player breakthroughs to be watching for in majors in 2023 will be focused more on the likes of Larnach, Kiriloff, Miranda, and Wallner; young MLBers taking the next step rather than young rookies. Look for rookie breakouts on the mound, either starting or relieving. By the way, I am somewhat surprised that there isn't more discussion about the fact that the only lefthanded pitcher on the 40 man who isn't strictly a reliever (Thielbar, Moran) is Headrick. The top 10 or 11 candidates for starting spots are all RH. Is it less of an issue which way they throw now, and more an analytical "how do they perform" against RH or LH hitters?
  25. Elliot
    An interesting comparison is Kirby Puckett as a first ballot HOF’er. I am a huge fan and believe that Puck is the Twins best player ever and overall face of the franchise. Entire career with the Twins, 2, world championships, and many awards; but 2,300 hits, 200 home runs, and a .318 average are hardly the stats of a first ballot electee. The fact that he was so elected indicates an acknowledgement of the impact of an injury shortened career. I think if it is possible to look at Mauer’s career thru 2013 (essentially his catching career) using the same lens used regarding Puck’s shortened career, we would end up looking at Mauer differently. It is unfortunate, but the final handful of years did not help his case at all. He was really just a shell of the player he once was (.270 avg and a half dozen home runs per year) as a 1B/DH.
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