Elliot

I just ran across an interesting article on free agents from 5 years ago. https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2017/11/9/16624864/mlb-free-agents-history-offseason The best MLB free agents from 2012-2013 are a sobering reminder for everyone The article looks at the MLB Trade Rumors list of the top 50 free agents. The article did not include who signed them or what they signed for. The thrust of it was to look at where these top 50 are 5 years later; interesting in that 5 years gets thrown around often as if it isn’t that big of a deal. The section in quotes below is their assessment of the class. “Again, this is five years ago. Let’s do a quick tally: • 32 players who are either retired or playing internationally • 10 players who might play a role on a bench or in the back of a bullpen next year • Three players who might play a significant role with their current/future team, but probably won’t • Four players who are expected play a significant role with their current/future teams • Zack Greinke That is, just 10 percent of the free agents from five years ago are still playing at roughly the same level right now. This is a small sample, and it’s possible this was an especially unlucky class. We’ll do this experiment next year.” Looking at just the top 10 you have Zack Greinke and BJ Upton (unless you want to include #4 Anibal Sanchez). I was not able to determine the other 3 who would constitute the 10%. Maybe Russel Martin or Melky Cabrera. Needless to say it is not an impressive list and would have been almost as unimpressive 2 years ago, with only David Ortiz standing out. Even the #1 at that time, who would clearly be the #1 now as well (Zack Greinke) is a contract that Arizona looks to be trying to unload. The lesson to be learned is that there is a small number of players in a typical free agent class that will be worth the money 4 or 5 years down the line. In most cases you are paying for past performance and will be sitting on dead money well before the end of the contract.

Gotta wonder if somehow Dickerson will surface with the Twins. Maybe part of the original discussion but now trying to get him for less money than what it would have been in a trade. Don't hold your breath on any additional pitching moves. I think they will feel comfortable with finding their staff in Santana, Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson, Mejia, Hughes, May, Duffy, Gonsalves, Romero, Slegers. I'm happy, but I always am when spring training starts.

The worst move the FO can make is to commit 20% of the payroll for the next 5 to 6 years to a bad, large contract. The hope is that over the next few years they will be locking up Buxton, Sano (??), Berrios, Rosario, Kepler, Polanco ...; as well as dealing with vets such as Dozier and Mauer; a process that will require considerable payroll space. I much prefer a flier on Sanchez to overpaying for any of the pitchers in this incredibly flawed FA market. The consensus top pitcher available was a sub .500 starter who almost single handedly cost the Dodgers the WS. The next three in line are even more flawed; in no way worth anything more than a three year deal, and even that is a stretch. An incentive laden 2 year is more like it. Hearing that the top FA pitchers are all looking for 4 years plus and $15M/yr type of money, I sincerely hope that the FO steers clear and continues to "dumpster dive". I hate to ever see the Twins give up prospects but my guess is that if a big move is coming it will be a trade for a lesser known starter (not Archer) and will involve moving a young major leaguer as well as some highly rated prospects.

I am not a huge fan of Garrison Keillor and certainly am on the opposite end of the political spectrum from Al Franken.. I do not know or particularly support the many individuals who have been publicly accused of various levels of sexual assault. I am however; very concerned about the current practice of assuming guilt and punishing without any level of due process. If a crime has been committed, allow the legal process to play out. If it falls short of a crime, allow the civil process to run its course. if neither of the above holds true, then trust the electoral process or pressure from advertising dollars to do their part. My concern is that, if not already in place, there will be an instance of a woman accusing a man of a sexual assault that did not take place; who knows why, but anything from vindictiveness to financial gain to some level of notoriety could be the case. With the pubic insistence on immediate action fueled by the current need for instant answers, that individual's life will be destroyed. I do not know the female photographer involved, but lean towards believing her story (or at least parts of it) based on statements from those that do. I do not know Miguel Sano, but based on many statements from those around him throughout his career, it would not surprise me if he is indeed the typical athlete suffering from extreme entitlement. That being said, no action should be taken unless or until the appropriate processes have run their course. I have to believe that the Twins front office, managerial staff, and players know Sano's character very well. If he is the jerk that is displayed in this story, not only will his time in MN be short lived, but so will his career. Those accused of such actions certainly have the right to step out of their public positions if they wish to avoid the public outcry; but if they wish to continue in their role, they should not be forced out until whatever process involved runs its course. As of now, friends of the photographer should support her and leave the conviction and punishment to others. Until then, these pages should be focused on Miguel Sano's leg healing, controlling his weight, cutting down on his strikeouts, and finding a defensive role that he can handle.

i am fine with a low $ signing that will bridge to the next internally developed closer. I am not in favor of strapping the payroll for years to come (think Joe Mauer) to try to get a big name starter. You are almost guaranteed that even if he performs for a couple of years you will be looking at $25M/yr dead money towards the end. I am even less in favor of dealing any of the young starter prospects. Essentially the most valuable asset in baseball is good controllable young starting pitching. The biggest risk is veteran FA starters. If the twins are serious contenders 3 years from now it will be because 2 or 3 of the current crop of prospects in the minors or already in the bigs have blossomed, not because they overpaid for past performance of Darvish or Arrieta.

Fix the hat and I can put up with a bit of control issues

I am still baffled by the concept that a strikeout is not a bad thing from a hitter's perspective (an out is an out) so just swing for the fences no matter the situation or the count; but that from a pitcher's perspective a strikeout is the number one priority. The goal for the pitcher and defense is to get outs. Admittedly there are situations in which a strikeout is paramount; runner on third and less than two outs; but those are not measured by SO's/9 innings. One SO per nine is great if you get it when you need it. The Twins simply need better pitchers,not necessarily harder throwers or strikeout machines.

"the strikeout has been (fairly) reduced to just another out." True, an out is an out. Why is this true statement followed by an entire article of why a strikeout is more important than any other out. To me it is a parallel to the dunk in basketball. All kinds of hype and emotion, but when all is said and done it is worth 2 points. Get pitchers who can get people out. I would love to see some analytics on fielding performance on batted balls in play behind strikeout pitchers as compared to pitch to contact guys. My guess would be that fielders perform better when batters see fewer pitches. Nothing like a 8 or 9 pitch at bat to put fielders on their heels.

In question 1 you suggest signing Dozier to a 4/5 year extension, but in #2 he is gone by the second year unless he is the mysterious 3B. I am on board with that unless for some reason he or the management team feel he cannot play the position.

Based on performance to date, Stewart would not even be in the discussion. We are concerned only due to his draft status. In 5 years he has not done anything to warrant the concern. Losing Rodriguez as a minor league FA was a much bigger deal. I put the likelihood of Stewart being drafted at 75+% and being returned at 50%+. He is the perfect type of prospect for someone to take a flyer on. If he shows something out of a bullpen maybe he sticks with someone. If not, its only a $25k cost. With Diaz, keep in mind that not only does he have to stay on the 25 man all of 2018, but he has to stay on the 40 man indefinitely after that. Removing him would expose him to waiver claims. He is likely 3 to 4 years away from being a contributing major league hitter, so he will be a roster dilemma for years.

Each year the Twins (and every other team) add between 30 and 40 young players thru the draft and undrafted international signings. The harsh reality is that there will be between 5 and 10 left in the system 4 or 5 years later; with fewer yet ever seeing the majors. If there is one solid major leaguer found per year you are lucky. A star every few years is all you can really expect. The 2012 draft was outstanding in that it produced 4 solid major league players (Buxton, Berrios, Duffey, and Rogers); 2 who have definite star potential. In addition 4 more are still hanging around (Bard, Melotakis, Chargois, and Baxendale) 2 of which are part of this rule 5 discussion. There is basically no one left from the 2011 draft; and 7 or 8 from 2013 and similar number for '14; none of whom have established themselves as even marginal major leaguers at this point (other than Hildenberger in 14). Along with the two from '12, these individuals make up the current rule 5 discussion. We love to talk about these names, debate their value, and blame Terry Ryan, Bill Smith, or the new guys; but the reality is that the nature of the beast is that none of these names who were left off the 40 man will even be remembered 2 or 3 years from now. The good ones make it in 4 or 5 years. (Disclaimer - international 16 year old signings like Diaz are wild cards). A new crop will have emerged and the real prospects will be those chosen in the 2014 to 2017 drafts. The chances are slim of any of the hanger ons who reach rule 5 discussion becoming solid major leaguers, much less stars. There are always exceptions, but barring injury, high schools seniors make it in 4 or 5 years (age 22 - 24) and college draftees should show up in 3 to 4 (age 24 to 26). The names to focus on are not Bard, Burdi, Melotakis, and Diaz; but Kiriloff, Lewis, Gordon, Jay, Moran, Badoo,...

Never been a fan of defensive metrics. For me, the eye test says that Dozier has always been an above average defensive player at 2nd base, but not at short. I also believe he could transition to third and perform at the same level. His quick first step and lack of great range would fit better there. I believe he has plenty of arm for the majority of plays. If he stays healthy Buxton will be in the running for many more in center. If he finishes 2nd or 3rd in some years to the crop of high end defenders now in the American league that will not seem like an injustice.

Don’t get too worked up about minor league relievers. They are in the pen in the minors due to flaws. The best pitchers are almost always in the rotation. History of the Twins (Aguilera, Guadado, Perkins ...) and most other teams is that the best relievers are failed starters. The future of the pen probably rests with MayGonsalves, Romero, Jorge, and other current minor league starters.

Don’t get too worked up about minor league relievers. They are in the pen in the minors due to flaws. The best pitchers are almost always in the rotation. History of the Twins (Aguilera, Guadado, Perkins ...) and most other teams is that the best relievers are failed starters. The future of the pen probably rests with May as well as Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, and other current minor league starters. That is not to say that a couple of the current crop of minor league relievers won’t pitch in the majors, but exposing them to other teams doesn’t mean they will be lost (see Mason Melotakis).

The focus won't be on who they trade, but who they go after. The twins can only work with the assets they have. Not having the veteran trade options only means that they will have to use their minor/major league options. Falvey will show his value in deciding which minor leaguers to trade and identifying younger, not yet established arms in other organizations. At Cleveland they did not trade their veteran assets for other established veterans, but instead went after Corey Kluber types (admittedly not easy to find). They have also been very limited in the FA route. I expect that the offseason moves will not involve the names being kicked around, but will very likely be somewhat anonymous names coming back in return for minor leaguers that are identified as less likely to be stars at the major league level. I do not think Lance Lynn will be a Nolasco disaster, but he might. He might be an Ervin Santana success. A good chance he is Hughes; a success for a year and then injured which seems to be the St Louis pattern. No matter what, he will cost a lot in terms of both years and $, and will impact the rest of the team moves for years to come.

The Twins have made 3 major free agent starting pitcher moves in the recent past; three moves that give a great example of the pitfalls of this route. Ervin Santana (great success), Phil Hughes (great success, then injury), and Ricky Nolasco (disaster) were all highly touted within these pages prior to their signings; and for good reason; they were veterans with track records of success. It is probably more than just coincidence that out of 3 moves with similar contract commitments, there can be such widely varying results. I would guess that it probably represents the approximate odds of success with this avenue of building a staff. Lance Lynn, or almost any other FA starter out there, has probably a 33% chance of long term success if the Twins (or any other team) signs them. The variable is what impact the 66% failure rate has on the signing team. The Yankees, Cubs, or Dodgers swallow hard and move on from the failure. The Twins are strapped and unable to make moves to offset the mistake unless or until they are able to unload the contract. The Verlanders and Darvishes of the world probably have a somewhat better chance of success but come with a much greater cost in both annual dollars and number of years. Think "Joe Mauer's contract and the impact it has had. Joe is probably a much better value in the final 2 or 3 years of his 8 year deal than either of those pitchers will be. My preference would be to trust in the young arms coming, maybe even rushing one or two of them. If they are not ready, the cost is not as great and the team is not hamstrung moving forward. If it is deemed necessary to go outside of the organization I prefer a trade for an arm or two that will not excite the fan base as much since they will probably be somewhat unknown, but they will be earlier in their careers and the Twins can capitalize on their affordable years. (NOTE - check out how Cleveland built their staff). Twins assets leaving in this type of deal should be the likes of Nick Gordon (sell high) and Kohl Stewart (potential not production). The idea is that you have to give something to get something and we have to quit fearing that one of the young players we trade will go on to excel somewhere else. That is the price of getting pitching. The real price to fear and to avoid is long term onerous contracts with no production.

Huge fan of Paul Molitor the player. Not so of Molitor the manager. I would kind of like to see either Jake Mauer or Doug M. Mauer seems to have done a great job wherever he has been. The Lookouts are currently playing at a .750 pace in the second half after posting a .600 line in the first half. Both have worked with and seem to know and get along with the young core of players.

If I remember right the Twins only signed one of their top three international targets. The other two were not yet age eligible; birthdays later this summer. If the extra 500k helps get those two signed once they become of age it could be very valuable as well.

Polanco 2b, Dozier 3b, Vielma or veteran defensive SS via FA or trade Sano, Mauer, Park, Vargas fight for 1B, DH opportunities. Let the best man win and the others sit or move to AAA. Advantages - Dozier, a veteran and leader takes the hit of learning a new position without it affecting his offense (I believe he has the skill set to be an above average 3B). Polanco, and hopefully Sano, begin long careers at positions in which they have a chance of being average to above average defensively while shining offensively. 3B and SS are arguably two of the most crucial defensive positions on the field, and neither will be filled by Polanco or Sano on an effective defensive team. At least the starts the process of getting people in the roles in which they can succeed. The 1B/DH competition may be good for both Sano and Mauer. Based on recent performance Mauer may be the least deserving of the candidates. If he beats out Sano, a trip to AAA may be just what Sano needs to figure things out. Downside - Entirely new infield alignment, potential of blocking Gordon's opportunity at short with a veteran. Highlights the lack of apparent 3B solutions in the system.

I attended my first game of the year yesterday and came away with a number of impressions; one that I want to focus on. For the entire year there has been ongoing discussion of the "Sano in right field" plan. Although I was never a big fan of the move, I supported it since it was clearly the lesser of two evils. Now the greater evil has come into view. Miguel Sano is not now, nor will he ever be, a third baseman. I was always baffled by the statement that he is too big and not athletic enough to play right field, but he could somehow slot nicely in at third base. Equally baffling was the injury concern. A hamstring strain is more likely for a DH than an outfielder due to the relative inactivity between at bats. However; the more serious injury concern involves the likelihood that Sano will take a ground ball to the face if he stays there much longer. Although he was able to catch a pop up without damage to his noggin, he did manage to display on two different plays why he does not belong anywhere in the infield other than first base. The first was a base hit grounded between Sano and Nunez. I was seated part way down the first base line so I had a perfect view as the ball eluded both. It was catchable for both; but both simply missed it. I am giving Nunez a free pass since I don’t think anyone is seriously considering him as a long term shortstop; simply a stopgap for now. The second misplay was a potential double play ball to Sano. I am not sure what he was trying to do, but although it was hit almost directly at him he somehow managed to not only botch the play, but not even come close to fielding the ball. Fortunately it bounced harmlessly into left field. Had it been at his head I seriously doubt that he could have defended himself. Miguel Sano is the future of the Twins. He is too young to be slotted into a full time DH role, but he only has one place on the field where he can play and that is first base. Fortunately, I think he has the skill set to not only succeed, but potentially be a very good defensive player there. Unfortunately that spot is filled by a catcher who needs to return to catching, retire, or take up a utility role, all of which would be good roles for a .280 hitter with little power or speed.