KirbyDome89

On the cusp of what? If you're trading prospect arms, because you're unable to graduate others is that really a success?

This needs to be pinned in every discussion where preseason projections are brought up.

I guess I don't see the distinction between "depth," and "banking on X pitcher to wrestle away innings." We know, whether it's injury or ineffectiveness, nobody makes it through a season with 5-6 starters. In the case of Bundy and Archer it was the latter, yet they were/are rotation stalwarts because there wasn't a single pipeline arm that could usurp them. To me, that's where introducing the term failure becomes appropriate.

Winder and Ober combined for roughly 100 IPs this year. Depending on how you want to cut it, that's somewhere between 12-15% of the starter innings. Isn't it just as easy to spin it the other way and say their lack of contribution is caused this team to sink? I'm not saying it was a sound strategy, but clearly the FO was banking on these two and others to step in and wrestle away innings from guys like Bundy or Archer.

Winder has a 5.19 FIP and has been shut down twice this season with a shoulder issue. That's a success?

1. I'm not nearly as high on the rotation as you are. I can see Gray being solid. Ryan is a backend SP, and that's a W for the Twins. He isn't always talked about, or treated as a 4-5 but expecting more than that is asking for disappointment. Vanimal posted this in another thread, but Ryan has a 1.08 ERA in 7 starts vs. KC/Det and a 4.72 ERA in 18 starts vs. everybody else. Maeda didn't pitch like an ace at all last year. He went down in August, but he struggled prior to being injured. He's gonna be a 35 year old pitcher attempting to regain form post TJ next season. I have zero faith in Ober's ability to stay on the field. Winder is inching into that territory with his shoulder issues, and even if he's healthy, he's not a lock in terms of performance. Varland is.....idk. Of the nine listed starters, I count 4 (Ober, Winder, Paddack, and Mahle) major health question marks, 2 (Maeda and Varland) major performance question marks, and 2 reliable arms. To me, this looks a lot like the rotation setup coming into this season minus the supposed glut of young arms ready to fill in. That doesn't mean some things can't break right, and maybe the Twins get lucky with some health, but I'm not overly optimistic. 2. Jeffers offensively is middle of the pack at best. I have no idea what to expect with Kirilloff. That said I definitely think it'll be the offense that has to come through if the Twins are actually going to be competitive. 3. Duran is an anchor. We'll see with Jax, and maybe Thielbar. I don't get the Alcala love on this site. The guy had a good September last year, but it's like nobody wants to acknowledge the face he was borderline unusable into August of that same year. Maybe he turned a corner, or maybe, as with a lot of relief arms, he was effective for a short while. He'll get his shot I guess. Lopez has been an absolute disaster. Maybe that changes but he looks a lot like the guy Baltimore gave up on as a starter. The emergence of Duran by itself puts the Twins in a better spot to begin next season; add Jax possibly being a solid reliever and yeah, I agree the pen should be easier to build on, but that's still an awfully low bar. 4. The big one. I don't think their approach to the pen or rotation changes. 5. Agreed, but it can be roughly the same. 6. Their positional needs aren't really that great, but this FO flat out refuses to spend on pitching. It'll be interesting to say the least.

What FA pitchers are turning down larger offers from the Twins to pitch elsewhere? Honestly, can you name a single instance where that has happened? Why perpetuate such an obviously false narrative?

"Those who constantly advocate for these types of assertive showings from the front office now sound rather toothless when criticizing them in hindsight. While we can all see the overall results have been unsatisfactory – albeit hardly disastrous for a reigning last-place team – this front office was audacious in shaking things up. Isn't that what we want?" The FO put the team, and themselves, in a horrible spot during the first half with injured starters, short outings, failed prospect development, and the worst bullpen in the league. Framing the failed deadline moves as "isn't this what we want?" is totally disingenuous. But hey, they tried, so no robust criticism to be found there... Also, it's weird that last year has now become the measuring stick.

Is he? Will he? Right now he looks exactly like the pitcher Baltimore bounced from their rotation after last year. The medical staffers aren't miracle workers. If they're being handed broken parts the results are never going to be great.

Can we talk about how bad Jorge Lopez has been? Since coming over he has literally been the same guy Baltimore gave up on as a starter, except now he's imploding from the pen. From an opposing fan perspective the hissy fits on the mound have to be hilarious, from a Twins fan perspective they're also hilarious, but in a sad kind of way. Are we still happy/comfortable with him being locked into a pen spot next year? Yeesh....

If Lopez was actually trying to hit Naylor we've found a new low....

At least we get to watch him throw a temper tantrum and unravel every time a borderline call doesn't go his way...

Is Gray injured or are they just throwing in the towel officially?

The Twins had a share of 1st place just 2 weeks ago. Cleveland had lost 5 straight, and the Sox continued to be the Sox. Broken clocks being right twice a day yada yada, I believe the primary argument for the Twins hanging on was the general weakness of the division. I don't think that's has changed. The Twins have played like a 70 win team rather than an 80 win one the last few weeks and it has likely closed the door on them, but I don't recall that being prognosticated. If the over/under on Ws in 7 games against Cleveland in September was set at 1.5 were you taking the under in June, July, or even August?

I think it's easier to find multi inning pen arms than starters who can consistently go 6-7 innings. The Twins had the worst bullpen in baseball entering the trade deadline. Golf clap for getting a couple arms but to me that's isn't decent strategy. I'm not near as bullish on Alcala or Lopez either. They've set themselves up for failure with the turn and burn strategy without an actual top end of the pen.

Surprised you're ready to be hurt so soon

It's almost certainly the former and the players might be too much of that big voice as well. Like any data point, medical info is all about how you're using it. I'd be shocked if any MD was comfortable/happy with their professional acumen being called into question just to squeeze a few extra weeks out of a clearly injured (insert player here.) I'd add bullpen construction to the list of adjustments the FO refuses to make. Their FA signings flopped and the castoffs performed like castoffs last year, but I guess second time was the charm right? Nope, for the second season in a row the pen is a major issue, and worst of all it's probably the easiest thing to fix.

The quibble is really about the odds of "success," and the timing of the extension. Nobody besides the Pohlads will notice the $2M.

Why the **** are you bunting and giving up an out if those are the kind of ABs you're gonna get. People think the Twins are mismanaged....

Maybe? They demoted him to finish 2020, so if they thought they were buying something other than a backend guy...woof.

How much do you need to control cost if his ceiling is backend starter/long relief though? Every organization has fringe or AAAA players that can flash for a moment. If these deals are so low risk, why aren't other organizations rushing to hand out similar contracts to those types? I'd imagine it has a lot to do with a hit rate that's considerably lower than the the risk, i.e. if the gamble is small, but your ROI is abysmal, why bother, particularly in the Twins case when you've got plenty of time at a suppressed cost to sort out performance questions.

I'll give you Gray. Mahle is a total wait and see. There should be little to no importance placed on Paddack or Maeda if the team is serious about winning next year.

Hopefully his name was written in pencil on that list of injured players that set the team back this season.

I don't care how wiggle room placing "any," in front of culpability does or doesn't buy you, that's not really the point. The issue is we're papering over what has clearly been poor decision making with hyperbole and this woe is me list of injured players. The best part is nobody had to be Nostradamus to be anxious about the pitching coming into this season, but speaking of seeing into the future, aren't you using theoretical WAR to argue how much value the Twins lost to the IL? Interesting... There's a seismic shift; they're in 3rd place in the worst division in baseball, but not technically eliminated so I guess there's that. Gold star.

"I don't see much of a case for holding the manager or even the front office primarily accountable for what's gone down this season." Audibly laughed out loud at this. I mean yeah, can't be the fault of a FO who constructed a makeshift bullpen, placed immense importance on a "pipeline," that has failed spectacularly, signed two bargain bin starters prone to short outings that further exacerbated the already terrible pen situation, and traded for two more injured starters. Oh, and don't forget, we're still watching Emilio Pagan, the worst relief pitcher in baseball, trot out there and give up runs in crucial games while this team hangs on by a thread. Definitely not much of a case for holding that group accountable. Zero chance any of that has contributed to this being a sub .500 teams for the last 4 months right? The above poster is correct, this is high level cringe.... Lewis and Kirilloff: Losing Kirilloff sucks, no question. We're lacking a ton of context with Lewis. Coming into this year he hadn't played since 2019, and he wasn't exactly stellar in A ball that year. There were real questions about him. The Twins weren't banking on him, hence the Correa signing. It's a bummer he injured the ACL again, and he was hitting the s*** outta the ball before getting sent down, but when the season started this team didn't need or maybe expect Royce Lewis to come up and play the way he did. Mahle and Paddack: They traded for broken parts, not once, but twice within 4 months. That's not aww shucks bad luck. It just isn't. Buxton: He's never going to play a full season. We knew it before the year started. It's why the 4th OF topic was a hot debate. He basically made it to September before having to shut it down. We can quibble over how his playing time was handled, but you already said it, second most PAs of his career. We take that every time. Jeffers and Larnach: Jeffers was bottom tier offensively, even by catching standards and he was even worse than Sanchez at stopping the run game. Would I take him over Leon? Yeah, but that's a pretty low hurdle. He's ideally the short side of a catching split, i.e. a backup catcher. Larnach has been so streaky, Idk which version the Twins would've gotten, but yep, I'd definitely prefer watching him to Cave or Garlick. Winder and Ober: No clear red flags? Are we actually serious with this? Both ended last year on the IL, Winder with his shoulder issue that's now flared up 3 times in less than a year and Ober with a hip injury that I imagine is linked to the groin issue that's cost him most of this year. Ober also hasn't been able to stay healthy enough to handle even modest workloads 4 professional seasons now.... Alcala and Canterino: Canterino threw 23 innings in the low minors before missing the rest of the year. Zero chance he was supposed to be relied on. Alcala had a nice September last year, he was borderline unusable through July. We act like he was a solid set up guy, the reality is he was a question mark even if fully healthy. Coulombe, Stashak, Romero, Dobnak, and Maeda: Maeda was injured last August, they knew what his status was heading into the offseason. The rest are AAAA, waiver claim, minor league contract guys. Just stop with this nonsense.