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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    I'd imagine getting to face a pitcher 2-3 times through the lineup might also skew some counting stats no? If durability is an asset (it is) why are players that pitched less than half of the innings Berrios did during that 5 year span being tossed out as legitimate comps? Also, doesn't fWAR incorporate FIP? Why isolate xFIP-?
  2. KirbyDome89
    "What MN was willing to do was far from this." That's ahhh, not good news for anybody still convinced this is a "reset."
  3. KirbyDome89
    Happ, Shoemaker, Martin Perez, Colon, Hector Santiago Off the top of my head I can't think of a single buy low starter that has worked out in the last 5 years. The issue is twofold; this FO isn't good at identifying candidates that actually bounce back, and the production necessary from those candidates has trended upward.
  4. KirbyDome89
    Odds that they're able to move him without eating any of that $50M? If the Twins are eating half of that and the remaining $$ allows them to go an extra year or higher AAV to land a top SS I can get on board. If they're going to use it on a couple SP stopgaps in the $10-12M range while they "reset," then I'll pass.
  5. KirbyDome89
    What gets me is that they merely have the opportunity to splurge on a pitcher who profiles similarly. It's far from a foregone conclusion that they'll acquire one through either FA or a trade.
  6. KirbyDome89
    Due to his finger injury or strange usage patterns early in the season, Dobnak never got on track in 2021. He barely pitched post injury, nearly all his awful performance came prior to either IL stint. He also was used the exact same way in '19 when there were threads wondering aloud whether he could be an All Star. We need to let of the misuse and injured narrative when it comes grading how Dobnak performed in 2021.
  7. KirbyDome89
    I still think the teams that would trade for a full year of Buxton are likely to give up more than a team that's trading for 2-3 years of Kepler. If those guys were set to hit the open market today, it's not even a discussion who would be more valuable.
  8. KirbyDome89
    If they can't sign at least one high tier pitcher and address the bullpen I'd rather the $$ go towards the rotation and the team try to piece together a bullpen. They've had some success with that, and little with "bounce back," starters. I'll take the under on Pineda hitting 160 IP. That's essentially asking him to make every scheduled start. Balazovic should be up sooner rather than later. Aside from that maybe Winder if his shoulder issue really was fatigue and not any sort of structural damage. Even if that's the case, he wore down at the 70 IP mark, I don't know how much contribution should really be expected. Duran and Canterino have basically missed two seasons at this point and both could also be dealing with more serious injury issues. Neither should be counted on for anything in '22. An inability to throw strikes rather than actual injury shut Woods Richardson down. Maybe cross your fingers and hope his brief time in A ball with Toronto is rediscovered. I don't think the cavalry is as strong as some perceive it to be.
  9. KirbyDome89
    Agree with #3 completely. I desperately want #1 to be true but I have a hard time seeing a massive turnaround next season with the work that needs to be done on the pitching side. Lip service about the intention to compete next year aside, Buxton is the fulcrum that dictates which direction this team actually goes. Maybe we need to define flashy? 3/4 teams mentioned were legitimately fighting for playoff spots in September. People love to clown on SD for spending and not making the postseason, but they also played in a division with 2 teams that won 100+ games. We need to move away from the notion that being able to select the player(s) you want by spending the money necessary to gain their services isn't an advantage. Boston has the 3rd highest payroll in baseball. A single offseason vs. the Twins' doesn't tell us much. MN can hope to be the Giants and have a ton break right for them, but that seems like a lot of what the plan was going into this year too. I also don't think the number of players signed matters. We've seen the Twins "spread the wealth," i.e. bargain shop rather than shoot for mid/high tier guys in the past, and it hasn't necessarily gone well either. It's simplistic, but really it boils down to choosing players that perform.
  10. KirbyDome89
    You can argue that the Sox are a good team without needing to prop up the AL Central. It was the ONLY division in baseball to have every team other than the winner finish under .500. The Central is hands down the least competitive division in the AL, and very likely in all of baseball. The Twins lost 89 games, KC 88, and Detroit 85; drawing the line at 90 seems a little too arbitrary.
  11. KirbyDome89
    Cron was essentially a league average hitter who provided no defensive value in '19. Why would the Twins commit to him at 1B beyond that year? Kepler, Arraez, and Kirilloff are all better than that.
  12. KirbyDome89
    Do we really need to expect an Ortiz-esque second half of his career to justify paying him to stay? The most extreme example doesn't need to be the measuring stick.
  13. KirbyDome89
    I wouldn't even rank him as the worst single year, positional player signed by this FO. Logan Morrison anybody?
  14. KirbyDome89
    Idk if I'd say he's been jerked around. Bullpen innings (in fairness, struggles too) aren't uncommon early in starters careers. If the Twins staff wasn't a total dumpster fire this year, or they weren't starved for even mediocre internal options to start games, are they handing him that extension, or letting him rack up 40+ IP of pretty awful baseball this season? He pitched himself out of the rotation last year, albeit in a short/weird season, and he hasn't shown anything this year to suggest that wasn't the right move. Look, I'm not saying they need to give up on him, but we can reel it in a bit on Dobnak.
  15. KirbyDome89
    You can probably back up all the way to May 1st and his aggregate numbers aren't terrible. That said, I want nothing to do with him next year. I still see a guy who struggles with command, doesn't strike out enough hitters, and just seems to wilt in any sort of leverage situation. He isn't the historically awful pitcher we saw in April; I also doubt whoever pays him next season gets the 4 even-ish months we've seen.
  16. KirbyDome89
    I really don't understand the usage argument. The guy did almost the exact same thing in '19, coming off an entire summer of starting. Suddenly a handful of starts in ST and subsequent move to the bullpen derails him? Eh....color me skeptical. As far as injury goes, if we want to erase the two games in TX, even the Yankees game (though I'd argue he was already getting bludgeoned prior to the nail tearing) we can, but the overall picture isn't any prettier. I think the issue with Dobnak has been......Dobnak.
  17. KirbyDome89
    He started 10 games in the shortened '20 season and managed to loss his spot in the rotation/be optioned within those two months. Half of his appearances during his celebrated '19 stint were in relief, after he spent an entire summer starting in the minors, so I don't know why we're blaming his usage. What happened to him this year is that he has pitched poorly.
  18. KirbyDome89
    I wouldn't argue Cleveland is either, I think the Twins would've been a little better, but "tomayto, tomahto." Agreed, this is a culmination, not a recent development.
  19. KirbyDome89
    Probably a bit pessimistic. If their FA signings aren't literally league worst at their respective positions, (there are lots of ways to slice that) it wouldn't be shocking to see this team at least sitting where Toronto is right now. Maybe injuries, particularly Maeda, would've derailed them this half but given how bad the division is even remotely competent pitching coupled with the offense should've at least had them fighting for a WC spot.
  20. KirbyDome89
    I'd argue things went south because of poor moves with other factors compounding existing issues. As a general rule, I agree, even the best teams need to reset. As far as the Twins are concerned I think it came about prematurely.
  21. KirbyDome89
    In general, or in this specific instance?
  22. KirbyDome89
    Agreed, the fixation with "flexibility," or stop gaps is what got us here in the first place. If they're going to suck, I'd rather it be with with 1-2 solid rotation pieces that provide stability beyond just next season. I'd like to see the younger arms supplement that instead of a new cast of bargain bin pieces that have no value beyond '22.
  23. KirbyDome89
    Nope, nothing to do with Ortiz, rather I think it signals a longer term rebuild than the "reset," or whatever watered down term the team prefers to use. What history did I rewrite? Sure, I'm not banking on him playing 150 games, but it's a gamble I'm more than willing to make because the alternatives aren't nearly as appealing.
  24. KirbyDome89
    I think it's less about delusion and more about a desire to avoid what trading Buxton truly signals. We can acknowledge he has a problem with availability and at the same time admit that, at least recently, some of the more serious injuries have been of the more unfortunate nature. I don't expect toe fractures on a foul ball, or broken wrists via HBP to be recurring. The soft tissue and shoulder injuries, well, that another story. I'm all for the gamble too.
  25. KirbyDome89
    Same, I've always lumped them together. If we're at the point of cutting bait then keeping one and not the other doesn't seem to be in the best interest of the team.
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