KirbyDome89

3.78 FIP repeating AA in his 5th (4th?) year as a professional. He was flat out terrible in May and the few starts in June. That's half of his innings this season. Yeah, the last couple starts haven't been as disastrous, so I guess there's that.

I think we're stretching the definition of value. Archer's short starts are torching an already overtaxed pen, and even with the short leash his meltdowns are so sudden it's nearly impossible to prevent damage. He's already made something like $5.5M based on appearance incentives, and 6 more starts will put him over $7M. There's no value there; the Twins are going to end up paying back end starter money to a guy that's a long relief arm at best. Bundy....eh. It took his last start against a hapless Angels team to sneak his ERA under 5. No, he hasn't been one of the worst starters in baseball, but the fact that we're even considering a bar that low kinda says it all. They're getting bargain bin production at a bargain bin price. If he's your worst starter on an otherwise solid staff, ok, fine. Unfortunately that isn't the case.

2 runs in 3 games, both coming in the same inning, against a Twins staff that isn't exactly lighting the world on fire. A perpetual loser like KC throwing in the towel at the deadline and trotting out an even worse team for the last 2 months is great for the Twins, but terrible for baseball.

2 runs in 3 games, both of which came in the same inning. Pathetic. Literally haven't watched a single pitch of this series. I'm not going to call myself the most die hard baseball fan in existence, but if I have almost zero interest in tuning in to 3 Twins games in August while they're in a three way fight for 1st place in the division baseball has a problem...

Worrying about resigning Gray is at the bottom of the "pitching problems," list. Production questions aside, unless Winder's shoulder issue suddenly solves itself or he undergoes some sort of procedure I don't think you can really count on him as a rotation staple. I really hope the FO isn't banking on Ober in any way either. Paddack was a bounce back candidate when they traded for him, and now we're adding a TJ recovery. It's literally Ryan and a bunch of massive question marks in this group that's reached the majors. Balazovic has been terrible at AAA. Sands, Enlow, Dobnak, Smeltzer, and Henriquez all look like AAAA/potential low end bullpen pieces at best. Maybe Sands breaks that ceiling, and I know Dobnak is beloved on this site but... Agreed that Canterino seems destined for the pen, but he'll be back in A ball post TJ in 2024. SWR has been a mess...again. Prielipp is a total wildcard as far as both health and production are concerned and Raya is pitching well in low A. Each would have to take pretty massive steps to be contributing early or at all in 2024. No clue where/how/if Varland fits. Of everybody listed they probably have 7 guys (I'm already counting Ryan as a lock and I excluded Varland) with a shot to be starting pitchers. Two are in the low minors, two have struggled mightily in AA or AAA, two haven't been able to stay healthy either of the last few seasons, and the last one is a reclamation project coming off TJ. If the Twins are relying on this group + flier FAs to make up 4/5 or 3/5 of a rotation, or if they're still trading prospects for stop gap solutions for 2024 this FO should be gone anyway. I know you mentioned FA as well, but they've shown zero willingness to commit to pitching there so I didn't include that as a rotation option.

A shorter leash isn't the reason top FA pitchers aren't signing here.

It's not available in the US from what I read.

Let's hope not, although it'd be entertaining to see the gaslighting necessary to convince a fanbase that next season won't be his 4th trash year in a row. Similar to Colome last season, there's literally no amount of production that'll justify bringing him back. The damage has already been done.

"Both Pagan’s xFIP and xERA are far better than the results have bore out thus far, but the caveat to expected stats is that they don’t matter until they’re actualized." Unless we're operating under the delusion Pagan has been "unlucky," with HRs for nearly 2 seasons now, his xFIP isn't all that relevant. Disagree as far as expected stats are concerned. Fix the pipe while it's dripping; don't wait for it to burst...

Somebody needs to tell Jr. and those enabling him to just stfu at this point. The excuses are so cringe that they're comical.

I count Ryan as one of the two that I wanted to see solidify a spot, but I don't count him as somebody this FO developed in any way. Credit for the trade but he was MLB ready when they got him. Half the "work," was done for them this season, which makes the current situation all the more frustrating. If they wanted to target college arms and fast track them the number of years probably changes, but I really don't care what we're setting it at, quibbling over that is missing the larger point. Yeah, it's a good way to supplement, unfortunately it's been the only viable way to build for this FO. Their current approach is painting them into a corner.

I'm ok with drafting for the best talent and not the most dire need, but there has to be an organizational adjustment or philosophy shift if that's the case. They can't refuse to commit any real years or dollars to pitching in FA, watch guys like Cavaco or Sabato toil away in the low minors, and then spend pitching capital for stopgap arms a la this deadline, all while relying on these late round arms that aren't coming through. If we're cutting it down to 3-4 years I'd expect at least one solid starter, preferably two. I said they needed to finish this year with 2 reliable starters and they're going to fall short of that as well. The state of the bullpen is even less excusable.

It isn't just this year. Who has this FO actually developed since taking over? Duran? A single relief arm in 6 years? The so called pipeline is essentially a meme at this point. Supplementing in itself isn't problematic. Sure, we can bemoan where they've aimed in FA as far as pitching is concerned, but the real issue is the lack of any significant production from this prospect group that was supposed to be breaking through.

First it was get fat during that 2 week stretch against KC and DET in late May & early June, then it was 8 games against Cleveland in 10 days to provide separation in late June, next it was get to the AS break and rest, and finally it settled on the trade deadline a few weeks back. Now we're moving the goalposts into September?

FA isn't a value play, so complaining about value, particularly in an apples to oranges comparison, is pointless. What seems misguided is how you're defining failure. Would the Twins be better with Jermaine Palacios and his sub .500 OPS starting? Would spending more prospect capital at the deadline for a SS, assuming the Twins were still in the race and one was available, have been the better solution? Even if Correa is a "failure," and ends up costing more than $8.5M per WAR, he's better than the alternative. Correa is third on the team in WAR, but we're bemoaning the guy's AAV while team payroll is down $10M from last season, and a vast majority of the core players are some combination of young/cheap/on team friendly deals? The Twins are winning games this year, Correa is obviously a big part of that, seems far from a "recipe for failure," to me.

Correa was a FA signing; that's an automatic overpay. Using a contract Polanco negotiated to buy out arbitration years as a baseline for 3-4 WAR production isn't remotely fair. Fangraphs also has the cost per WAR in FA this year at $8.5M, so if Correa gets to that 4 WAR mark the Twins are essentially getting what they paid for. I also expected more from Correa to this point, but I wouldn't call him a big disappointment.

Not sure how Sano is viewed as anything other than a disappointment. He was a top prospect in all of baseball and nearly won ROY playing only half a season in '15. He became a defensive liability wherever the Twins put him, and he devolved into the worst kind of 3 true outcome hitter. It's a bummer, because he and the rest of that prospect group were one of the few things worth paying attention to during that awful mid 2010s run, but 6 years later if he can't even carve out a minor role in the lineup, eh, it's hard to see his Twins tenure any other way.

Hard not to think SD made out really well, especially if they're shedding salary to boot.

I know Detroit is awful, but what are they doing with Baddoo in the lineup? It's brutal to watch as an opposing fan...

Fantasy draft season is upon us; that Red Sox clubhouse better have a solid league manager....

These are the Twins after all. It took 4 straight 90+ loss seasons, and then a TSF to finally move on from TR.

It'll fly under the radar with Montas being moved but Mancini is a great get for Houston. Also, wtf is Baltimore doing? I get that they're in the East, but they're 3 games back of the WC spot and 2 of the 5 teams in front of them are division opponents. They've been bad for so long, why not just do the fans a minor service and at least see what happens in the second half?

I still think Houston can give them a run. Yeah I don't pretend to follow prospect rankings much but from the numbers being thrown around it doesn't sound like a haul.

Which prospect arms inspire confidence heading into the next year? The "not good enough to bring back help, but can't give them up and mortgage the future," argument doesn't really jive. If the parts are broken, then what kind of future are we clinging to? What's going to stop the pitching from being a disaster again next year? This FO won't play in the FA pool, which means we're either crossing our fingers on 4-5 guys have major bounce backs simultaneously and/or they're making trades. If you have the opportunity right now to sell high on a few guys and bring in help for a postseason run this year and beyond I'd take it. One high end reliever and another solid middle innings guy is the absolute minimum, and even that's more of a half measure.

Me too, and it's because the second part of that sentence doesn't seem to be happening. Maybe (hopefully) this is the absolute low point, but is there any young pitcher that could be up this year or next that you feel great about right now? Maybe the kid they just drafted, a few tearing up A ball, but the group that was supposed to be breaking through this year has largely fallen apart. They've certainly done better in trades, mostly because they seem to target higher end arms that way. I'd stop short of calling Maeda a very good acquisition; he was great for 11 starts in a short '20, pretty bad last year and then injured, he'll miss most if not all of this season, and he'll be a 35 year old starter trying to bounce back from TJ next year. Maybe he kills it next year; it's not like Graterol has been a monster for LA either, so I'd certainly make a Kenta-esque trade again. There has to be a balance, and the FO needs to adapt in order to maintain that equilibrium. I think that's laregely been a failure on the pitching front.