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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    Oakland is probably getting some great value too. Just imagine the outpouring of joy if the Twins went that route!
  2. KirbyDome89
    He was in the starting lineup from Day 1. That isn't a plan B... I'm not arguing whether he's worth $3. I'm arguing that shouldn't be the metric used based on the job he's been asked to do all year.
  3. KirbyDome89
    I can't stand Pagan throwing any sort of leverage inning but can they really carry 2 guys like that?
  4. KirbyDome89
    Regression concerns, especially when plan B is a question mark, seems pretty rationale to me when we're talking about a rotation spot over the course of an entire season, but hey, value.
  5. KirbyDome89
    You just watched Pagan melt down against Cleveland the other night, or perhaps you've repressed that memory.
  6. KirbyDome89
    EXACTLY. MY. POINT. He isn't a depth starter. He's been in the rotation from day 1. Cool, they paid him mop up money, but that isn't the job he's being asked to do is it? Maybe that's not "fair," to Archer, but who cares. The Twins are relying on him to solidify the rotation, and they'll continue to do so moving forward. That's concerning for reasons I've already touched on.
  7. KirbyDome89
    I'm not parring down some hypothetical. His inability to pitch beyond the 4th and his poor underlying numbers are a reality. The backup plan is? Hope Winder's shoulder stays healthy? Hope Balazovic gets it together in AAA? You see where this is going right? They paid for a starter; I'm far less worried about "getting your money's worth," at $3M than I am about the rotation spot. I could've made the same value argument about Pagan when he'd put up something like +2 WPA a month into the season. What are some of these metrics if not predictive? If we're outright dismissing regression then yeah we're
  8. KirbyDome89
    It's hard to maintain a solid sense of superiority without such exercises.... Or it could just be an acknowledgement that while getting to the end of June with a $3M starter who is still productive is great, he maxes at 4 IP, has underlying numbers that scream he's getting lucky, and "money's worth," is a poor judge of value relative to a spot in the rotation.
  9. KirbyDome89
    Yes. I think they've gotten their money's worth, sure. That's not a particularly high bar to clear though. Which direction the Twins go post effectiveness (if that occurs) plays a huge role in determining the value of the signing.
  10. KirbyDome89
    I wasn't debating that? I'm just not expecting his relative luck to continue.
  11. KirbyDome89
    That seems like an incredibly optimistic timeline.
  12. KirbyDome89
    No doubt he's worth the $3M or so they paid him and I honestly can't believe he's been the rotation stalwart as far as availability is concerned. The short starts have definitely contributed to the wobbling pen, and he seems ripe for regression. Ride him while you can, they certainly need it, but I'm not ready to reserve a seat on the bandwagon.
  13. KirbyDome89
    Expectations are the primary culprit, but I don't think they were unfairly set. Sano was a top prospect, and following his debut in '15 if you had told me that by June 27, 2022 he would've accumulated less than 6 bWAR I wouldn't have believed it. To an extent I think the angst over his strikeouts has more to do with displeasure about the direction the game has gone, but Sano has posted some truly atrocious K%s that even his solidly above average on base skills + power couldn't counter. All in all I think his Twins tenure ends up being a disappointment.
  14. KirbyDome89
    DRS and UZR have Urshela right at average with OAA a tick below. I'll cede that it's possible he's undervalued a little but this season isn't a a stark departure from his career numbers. Correa is another story. I think he's better than the numbers he has posted this year, but these same metrics loved him while he ascended towards the top of the SS mountain.
  15. KirbyDome89
    I think he's average. If DRS, UZR, and OAA told varying stories to one degree or another I'd be more inclined to rethink my stance.
  16. KirbyDome89
    They're certainly not gospel, but I find DRS or OAA helpful at least as far as dispelling the "Gio Urshela is a defensive stud," narrative that won't seem to die.
  17. KirbyDome89
    Better defenders make the "WOW," plays look routine. It's that simple.
  18. KirbyDome89
    -5 OAA and a DRS of 0 but we're giving him a Gold Glove...
  19. KirbyDome89
    Counting tonight he's played in 6 of 7 games since Kirilloff's return, but I guess I'm seeing things... Are they currently investing in Miranda or not? That was what I asked. Don't shift the goalposts to hypothetical future usage. The Twins don't need to lock in an inferior defender at 3B to get Miranda ABs.
  20. KirbyDome89
    You're not wrong about Urshela's value/contributions to the team moving forward, but Miranda hasn't exactly lit it up at 3B this year. Gio is probably at best an average defensive third basemen; Miranda is worse. I don't understand why the Twins need to downgrade defensively at 3B when they can keep Miranda's bat in the lineup without having to do so.
  21. KirbyDome89
    Martin? No clue. Based on the 5 mins I spent checking out his BR game logs, that SWR guy has though.
  22. KirbyDome89
    He has played 17 out of a possible 20 games so far this month but the Twins aren't investing in their future unless he's at 3B every single game? The Twins have a safety net, albeit a meh one, in place if Miranda regresses, and they have a real shot at the postseason, but let's put that in jeopardy for essentially no reason? The beautiful part about the stars aligning is that it's always next year...
  23. KirbyDome89
    To be clear, I'm not throwing in the towel on either of these guys. The slugging is, and looks to always be a concern for Martin if he's not to stick at a middle IF position. Recently he's looked a lot more like the guy in Toronto during his '21 season. He's gonna be 22 in a couple months, which is average for AA, and this is his second season at that level. Some inconsistency is absolutely to be expected. Sure, if I'm a Jays fan I wouldn't be thrilled with Berrios' performance to date, but I'd also be looking at Martin and SWR and think Toronto sold high, and if I'm betting on a rebound it's more likely to come from the guy with a solid major league track record.
  24. KirbyDome89
    He had a terrible first and last start. In between, including some clunkers, his numbers aren't all that far off from what we'd expect. He also, ya know, mowed this Twins team down in Toronto couple weeks ago. SSS stamp and move on, at least for right now. Martin's value is at an all time low, after a handful of great games to start the year SWR has been pretty bad, and the Twins' pitching staff as a whole is unsurprisingly struggling. If I'm a Jays fan I'm certainly not bemoaning the trade.
  25. KirbyDome89
    I don't think the answer is necessarily to throw cash at multiple high end guys either, but I've lost a lot of confidence in the "spin gold out of straw," approach. It wasn't just Colome that tanked last season, and even though the pen stabilized a bit, it wasn't enough. History is slowly repeating itself. I totally agree that having a solid 3-4 arms like you named would go a long way and make it possible to hide guys like Pagan & Thielbar, though if Canterino is now strictly a relief arm (not saying you're wrong) the SP pipeline is taking some early Ls. The Twins had success with the front heavy strategy in '19. Duffey, May, and Rogers all had career years and threw 50ish innings. People forget how meh the rest of that bullpen was (they DFA'd their closer at the deadline ffs.) Another issue that gets less attention, but has already been mentioned, is SPs going deeper into games. Even with a solid 3-4 arms, you can't have a rotation turning in short starts 2-3 times per turn.
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