KirbyDome89

Smeltzer, Dobnak, and Thorpe have about 100 IP and 13 total starts combined. I wouldn't call that battle tested. It's very possible they become the 18' versions of Gonsalves, Mejia, or Slegers. This team is ready in the sense that they have bodies to fill rotation spots, but that shouldn't the bar to clear for a group that's expected to actually compete in a postseason series. The cost of a SP isn't going to be more palatable at the deadline. Kicking the can down the road once again and waiting 3+ months to acquire the front end arm they so desperately need is less than ideal....

I don't understand this Seth. 1. Aside from Graterol, all of the depth is of the same talent level; 5 spot starter ceilings, with a decent chance they're AAAA and won't stick on a major league roster. There are questions about whether Graterol is even going to be a starter. I understand that almost no team has 6-8 solid starters rostered, and MN can probably get by rotating through Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe, and Graterol in that last rotation spot for a short while, but you said it yourself, they're depth. Ideally none of them are handed a rotation spot out of ST, and certainly guaranteeing them 2 spots plus a potential 3rd due to injury/ineffectiveness is far from ideal no? Depth is an asset when it stays as that, not when it's filling out nearly or more than half of your rotation early in the season. 2. The big league team in April isn't the place for tryouts. The huge lead the Twins built up through early June last year won them a division title. The games early in the season matter just as much as the ones in September. I'm not sure why anybody is endorsing the Twins "seeing what the have," by running a bunch of question marks through the last two spot in the rotation, especially considering the fact that the two pitchers they're counting on to return at midseason each have serious injury histories. I've beaten it to death in other threads, but again, if they roll into the season with the staff as currently constructed they're begging for trouble. One bout of ineffectiveness from Bailey, one minor injury or even some general soreness/fatigue for Odorizzi or Berrios, and the rotation starts to look like something resembling Rochester more than MN.

And only one of those 100 win teams failed to win a single playoff game. Shockingly enough it was the team that started Randy Dobnak in game 2 of the ALDS. MN feasted on a historically terrible division to win 100+ games. Win total is a hollow comparison amongst MN, Houston, and NY. The Twins were the only AL playoff team with a losing record against clubs over .500 last year if you want to dig a little further. I'm all for racking up easy Ws while the opportunity presents itself, but this rotation, as currently constructed, looks set up to repeat the postseason failure we've become all too familiar with.

Unequivocally yes, they need at least one other starter. They can probably mash their way to a division title in the weak Central but it'll be another disappointing postseason appearance if MN doesn't acquire somebody that'll slot into one of the top two spots in the rotation. Rich Hill is far from a guarantee to even pitch this year. Pineda has his own laundry list of past injuries. Homer Bailey was largely ineffective and/or injured for 4+ seasons before a "strong 2nd half," last year where he was essentially a league average pitcher. Relying on Smeltzer, Thorpe, Dobnak, and Graterol to fill 2 rotation spots for any length of time is negligent. As of right now, if Berrios or Odorizzi are forced to miss any time over the first couple months, or Bailey simply isn't effective, an extremely potent offense could be wasted.

That might simply be a product of an "ok," Sox teaming beating up on two awful division opponents. The AL East has two bad teams, but I'd take Boston over the ChiSox. The AL West is easily stronger top to bottom, same goes for the NL Central. The NL East is likely the best division in baseball. Maybe the NL west? Maybe. SD is in a similar spot as the Sox, and if SF and Colorado both implode, intentionally or not, I can see an argument for the Sox slotting in above them. That said it'll be hard for the bottom of that division to match how terrible both Detroit and KC will be this season. The Central will boast two of the 3-4 worst teams in baseball again.

The tweet is incredibly misleading. He'll play 81 games at home this year, and a vast majority of those ABs won't come against AAAA guys like the Twins were running out the years those Toronto teams would tee off at Target Field. I agree the Central is easily the worst division in baseball, and he'll see some subpar pitching, but it won't account for anywhere close to the percentage of poor pitching used to generate the stat lines in that tweet.

Those stats were amassed against a lot of really poor Twins pitching scattered across some terrible teams in the mid 2010s. I'm a big fan of the signing, but Donaldson isn't going to face Tommy Milone, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Correia, ect.

That feels a lot like the witch hunt mentioned earlier.

Both the Kepler and Polanco extensions were considered team friendly, even at the time of signing. Buxton and Berrios turned down those type of offers because they're betting on themselves (probably the right decision.) The extensions for Kepler and Polanco don't have any bearing on what will or won't happen with Buxton or Berrios.

They weren't the high bidder on a single one of those 5 pitchers. If the Twins didn't have a realistic shot at landing any of them, it's because they never game themselves one. This FO kicked the can down the road, all the way to this FA class. There shouldn't be any sympathy for a FO that is the victim of circumstances entirely of their own making.

This is about all that can be said for Bailey and most of the offseason.

I laughed too hard at this. Probably because it's true....

It's because he played well. Rest assured that the moment he hits a slight lull we'll hear the same tired stories.

Might want to check the reported offers.... As of today WSH is still the high offer at roughly 100M. There's nothing to suggest MN has extended a offer near what Donaldson wants, or that they're even willing to top what the Nationals have submitted.

"Hasn't enjoyed their pitch" = They're offering under other teams....

Not really disputing any of that, but if the Pohlads are truly the only reason the Twins haven't reached the level of spending that they should, then this FO has to be better about managing that reality. I believe ownership has a lot to do with it, but based on what we've heard from both Falvey and Levine it's hard not to see them as timid after their most recent bout of inactivity. I'd love to see MN spend north of 140M, and I think they owe it to the public after years of being terrible and keeping payroll in the bottom third of the league. I agree with a lot of what the FO says in regards to where this organization needs to go. The issue is that what they're saying and what they're doing don't align, at least in regards to the current team. The ambiguous buzzwords and catchphrases, the schilling by media to excuse the inactivity and lack of spending, and the rebranding of tired old habits as innovative has started to grind on me personally.

It's sarcasm

I agree that this team isn't anywhere close to significantly better than last year, but the bullpen moves the FO made this year aren't on par with Blake Parker. Both Romo and Clippard are a step above. Neither is a huge boost but they likely won't be DFA'd before the trade deadline.

My point is that both teams you're referencing as examples of why MN shouldn't push in, actually have more playoff success in 1-2 year spans than the Twins have in nearly 3 decades. I'm not sure why you've latched onto the win total debate when the idea of my OP was clear, but then yes, 2 wins > 1, and we're looking at nearly 30 years, not 17.

Toronto pushed KC to 6 games; MN lost in 5 games. Last I checked 2 wins is closer than 1..... The Twins were 0-7 in the postseason this decade. They were 6-18 in the previous decade with only one series victory. Is that "sustained contention?" Runs of contention are cyclical. What the Twins did, and continue to do, doesn't work. Teams that are in desperate need of a talent boost, and allow fear to hold them back from achieving said boost, lest they lose out on a potential early playoff exit down the road, is the epitome of shooting for mediocrity.

Perez didn't improve as the season went on. He had a couple career months and reverted right back to the same poor pitcher he was in 18'. If that's the "improvement," we're hoping to get from Bailey then MN is better off looking elsewhere.

Perez was a liability by the end of last season. I wouldn't count him as anything close to a success story for this FO. Has the bar for rotation spots really been lowered all the way to "hope he has a career 2 months that make his season look middling?"

To continue the analogy: We keep hearing "there's time left." What goes ignored is that poor past performance makes it exponentially more difficult to achieve a high mark. The Twins are the like the kid who gets a D and a C- on the first two exams but maintains he'll just ace the final. We might still be 7 weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting, but all passable FAs (the least painful route to adding a front end arm) are gone, which makes the task of landing a starter before spring more daunting. Teams like AZ (Ray) and NYM (Thor) look like they're going to at least start the season trying to win their respective divisions. How many other realistic targets do the Twins have? How many other teams also need/want pitching? Even if the Twins identify an arm to go after, what has this FO done to suggest they're willing to pay the necessary price? So sure, there's time, but that argument is closing in on itself.

The time to "see what you have," in regards to young players was when this club was losing 90+ games per season. There's no scenario where running out Dobnak, Smeltzer, and Graterol for 2-3 months is a good idea. The rotation isn't talented enough to carry that trio. Those early season games matter just as much as the ones in September. Ask Cleveland.....

They lost the ALCS in 6 games to the eventual WS champs. For reference, that Toronto team came closer to a WS than the Twins have been in almost 30 years. They also won more playoff games that postseason than MN has won this entire decade. I'd say the Jays are an argument for pushing in, rather than shooting for sustained mediocrity.