KirbyDome89
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Jose Berrios 2nd Half: 4.46 ERA, OPS against went from .671 to .755 and his SO/W went from 4.52 to 3.25 James Paxton 2nd Half: 3.63 ERA punctuated by a 1.05 ERA over 5 September starts Odorizzi has better numbers than Tanaka essentially all year, with each having their own rough patches so if you're a believer in him not giving up homers at Yankee Stadium that's your advantage. Severino is a no brainer over Dobnak. If Severino is healthy, and it appears he is, the lack of innings shouldn't matter. It seems silly to knock him for throwing only 12 innings when Dobnak has tossed 28 in his entire career. I'd take Rogers over any of the back end guys mentioned, but May and Duffey aren't on par with any of the 3 big arms at the back of the NY pen. May has turned it on this half and Duffey has been solid all year when given the opportunity and maybe this is their coming out party but IMO that's still advantage NY. As far as the rest of the bullpens go NY: Gearrin, Hale, Cessa, Kahnle, Green, ect... MN: Littell, Stashak, Romo, Graterol, Smeltzer, ect... That feels like a push. I won't feel particularly confident watching some of those guys take the mound for the first time, although NY fans probably feel the same after watching that series at Target Field. If the Twins have an advantage, it's that they have an offense capable of keeping them in every game. They've shown time and agin this season they're capable of whittling away leads or downright exploding to take over games. I'm excited to watch them swing the bats, i'm anxious about how the pitching staff will perform, especially in NY.
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- jose berrios
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I blame this on them pitching him immediately after getting off the plane following the trade....
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- sam dyson
- jaylin davis
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“Dyson, however, informed the Twins shortly after joining them on July 31 that he has been pitching with some discomfort, dating to a July 15-17 series against Colorado. He said he’s had aches before and ad pitched through them.” If Dyson sought treatment while with SF and it was omitted in his medical records the Twins have a case here. If he told the Giants staff about his soreness and that he was fine pitching through it as he had in the past, and treatment wasn't necessary, then the waters become murky. I suppose you could argue that morally the Giants are shady by not disclosing that Dyson had some discomfort but I'm not sure they're obligated to disclose that if Dyson himself isn't claiming any aliment.
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- sam dyson
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Perez has been worse over a longer stretch? Idk 6 locks plus 2 near locks along with Stashak & Littell means you're taking 2 of 3 from Graterol, Perez, and Thorpe. IMO it's pick your poison at that point.
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- cody stashak
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I wouldn't feel particularly good about anybody on the 1-10 list entering a playoff game. Half of the locks or near locks are hard to feel confident about. If they're going to carry Graterol and Thorpe then your 12th man as a LOOGY is a wasted roster spot. If they're planning on bullpen games they need somebody who can give them more than 1 out against a LHB. Perez looks awful; even as a LOOGY I don't want to see him.
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The Twins approached each of them and they both passed. I'd guess each could've had deals similar to what Polanco and Kepler accepted but they voted to gamble on themselves. It'll likely work out in Berrios' favor and possibly Rosario's as well. I doubt Polanco and Kepler signing deals pisses them off; the amount they were offered by MN on the other hand is another story.
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Or maybe Baldelli is shrugging it off publicly as to not make a scene while privately admonishing Rosario. It certainly wouldn't be the first time a coach falls on the sword publicly and honestly I don't have a problem with it.
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He's averaging a hair over 5 IPs during that stretch so setting the bar at 3 runs isn't terribly impressive. More encouraging is that he's pitched well against twice against Cleveland and once against Atlanta during that stretch.
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Berrios has had a tough 2nd half no matter which way you spin it. Perez has been "that bad," since June. Unless it's mop up duty I don't want to see him throwing pitches in the postseason.
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It shouldn't matter, but I'm pretty sure it's been implied 2x now. Stating for a friend of course.....
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They might not have a division lead without him pitching through July and August. He definitely screwed the team, but not in that way.
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So are we allowed to disagree entirely with this premise or do we have to play along? Asking for a friend.....
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That timeline doesn't make it any less suspicious. Whether he's taking the drug early season, mid season, or at the end, they all have benefits. Neither if more likely than the other because we've heard nothing about why the suspension was reduced. All the protocol in the world can't remove human error, and that assuming it was even human error and not an issue with the protocol itself. If he's masking, it'd be in his best interest not to reveal that the suspension was reduced due to a technical issue. It also wouldn't jive with the explanation he gave for the drug use, which lets be honest isn't the most sound or convincing story.
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Are we going to lump their April/May performance in with the rest of the season and pretend it's indicative of where they're at right now? They outperformed those two months. Martin Perez and Jake Odorizzi aren't those pitchers, and they aren't producing near that peak. The bullpen benefitted greatly from starters going deep into games and lots of days off early in the year; since then they've been exposed. They were able to hide and protect guys in the pen and I'm glad they were, because the Ws they banked are the difference between winning the division and playing in the wild card. How many solid bullpens could drop their 8th inning setup man and watch him go unclaimed? Parker still ranks 8th amongst all Twins pitchers for WAR, and hilariously he shares that spot with both Gibson and Perez. Look at the 1st and 2nd half splits. The staff ERA rose over a full run from May through August. They're league average in the 2nd half in terms of OPS+, and that's with the benefit of pitching in easily the worst division in baseball, and in the AL where nearly half the teams have a shot at losing 90 or more games. The disparity between playoff teams and non-contenders is vast. If the Twins rank near or at league average it tells me what I already know, they've got an offense that will carry them and a staff that's good enough to weather a poor division but won't stack up come October. If that was goal then mission accomplished I guess, but in 3+ years I was hoping for more significant change, especially when this FO was handed this core group of position players.
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It's hard to call it a complete turnaround when the most glaring issue that plagued the Twins prior to Falvey's arrival continues to haunt them this season. Look, I'm on board with a good amount of what this FO is doing and/or has done, but there is a constant rush to prematurely anoint this duo.
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I'm not sure how a complete lack of knowledge as to why an arbitrator would reduce the suspension is compelling evidence but the rationale offered by Pineda, the timing, and the drug he tested positive for all casting suspicion is tenuous. We're all speculating. The arbitrator's decision isn't direct or clear evidence of anything. We know Pineda tested positive in season. We know the statement he gave, and we know what the drug is used for. One explanation is much more simplistic than the other. Scenario 1: He took a prescription diuretic to mask PED use and was caught The only point of speculation is that the drug was masking PEDs Scenario 2: He decided he needed to lose weight a month before the postseason started An associate just so happened to have pills that would help him do that Despite pitching professionally for 12 seasons Pineda and fully understanding the implications of taking substances outside team approval he ingests the pills The pills either happened to be, or contain trace amounts of hydrocholorthiazide and Pineda was entirely unaware An arbitrator rules that Pineda couldn't have known he was taking a banned substance and reduces his suspension from 60 to 40 games. You're speculating that he didn't know what he was taking, that his decision not to involve the Twin's medical and training staffs was innocent negligence, and that a reduction to 40 games affirms each of the previous assumptions. I would say Occam's Razor actually supports my leaning. IMO the morality issue becomes blurry and extremely arbitrary when we start arguing over who is a "cheater," who is forgiven, whose success is suspicious, ect.
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It's always next year right?
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The fact that supplements aren't well regulated isn't news to me, but falling back on the "I took a supplement and didn't know it contained X," is equivalent to "I didn't hit send on that tweet, my account was hacked." If we agree that hydrochlorothiazide doesn't just appear in his system unless he's seeking out a diuretic, and we agree that he made the conscious decision not to go through the team, does his intent really matter? Like I said, he's been pitching professionally in the US since he was 18; he's 30 now. He absolutely knows the protocol. I'll do him the favor of assuming he was intelligent enough to understand what he was doing, and unlucky enough to get caught. Personally I think he was trying to mask something. As I said before, the timing, his story, and the drug all cast doubt on it being an innocent mistake.The real issue is that Pineda knowingly ingested a substance without team approval. IMO the level of anger shouldn't change based on whether you believe it was to mask PEDs or simply an extreme lapse in judgment.
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I can't imagine you believe that Pineda was trying to reduce his body weight per team instruction and a friend just so happened to have prescription diuretics on hand. You aren't running across this drug, or any analogues, unless you're looking for them. Whether he specifically sought out hydrochlorothiazide or would've taken any diuretic isn't particularly important, he made a conscious effort to obtain and ingest the drug. He purposefully forfeited the opportunity to utilize world class training facilities and medical attention in favor of taking pills a supposed associated handed him. You're right, we don't have all the pieces to the puzzle, but based on what Pineda said, and what's known about the drug he tested positive for, I think there's enough to get a sense of what was going on.
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Are we really supposed to believe that Pineda was so concerned about his weight in season that he reached the point of seeking out prescription medication but never once thought to bring his concerns to the team that employs him and has access to cutting edge fitness centers & consultants, or to physicians associated with the team that could easily and safely prescribe medication if it was a viable option? The drug he tested positive for has nothing to do with actual weight loss, and it's prescribed, not purchased over the counter. He's also been pitching professionally for the last 12 years. At age 30 did he suddenly forget that taking pills that an "acquittance," gives you isn't a wise decision? If the argument is negligence, then it wasn't just one bad decision, it was a slew of them, and if you buy into Occam's razor it seems to be an unlikely defense.
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They're going to need to score a ton to win a playoff series. The best route is getting the WC in the ALDS then NY in the ALCS. I like the Twins offense matching up against the Yankee's starting pitching. Since that won't happen, I hope Houston gets the WC and gets knocked off while MN gets NY in the ALDS. Houston is a nightmare matchup for the Twins.
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- houston astros
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He's also missed 3 entire seasons and a good chunk of a 4th due to serious arm injuries....
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The Twins should want Pineda back, but IMO it needs to be in the same role he has filled this season; back end starter with front end upside. If MN goes into next season with Pineda penciled in atop the rotation they're asking for trouble, and the hunt for offseason arms went horribly wrong. I'm fine with Pineda on a 2 year deal although I agree it seems unlikely he'd sign one in MN barring another IL stint to end the season. Between him, Odorizzi, and Gibson he certainly has the most upside, but he's by far the least durable. I'd hesitate on giving him 3 years, but I could be swayed if the numbers weren't crazy. There's no way I'm handing him 4 years.
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In other words, Martin Perez has been.....Martin Perez.....since the beginning of June.
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A three run lead and they only needed to get three outs against one of the worst offenses in baseball. I can't fault Rocco for trying to get by without using Rogers for a 3rd straight day.
