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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    I think there's an equal or greater chance that Bader continues his struggles, except there's no upside vs. RHP which he'll see at least 50% of the time. Larnach's career vs LHP is essentially 2ish months of PAs spread over 4 years. We're talking about less than 50 PAs per season. It's a moot point, because this organization is determined to never let these guys face LHP, but it borders on self fulling prophecy territory. Again, 300 PAs spread over a combined 6-7 seasons between the two. Isn't pretending exactly what we're doing with Bader? Is his role not being understated? Are we not advocating for a guy who was borderline replacement level last year to get a starter-esque workload into his 30s following three seasons of decline? I'm fine with Larnach sitting vs. LHP, but the alternative should be somebody who can actually hit. LF defense and baserunning take a back seat when we're talking about a .570 OPS vs. low .600s OPS. I couldn't cringe any harder thinking about Bader entering the game as a PH in the 5th, then coming up in the 8th vs. a RHP with RISP.
  2. KirbyDome89
    Larnach and Wallner (who each held their own against LHP in the minors) combined for 67 PAs vs LHP pitching last year. That's enough to sit them vs. LHP without a second thought, but notorious lefty killer Harrison Bader and his .612 OPS vs LHP in 153 PAs last year gets a pass? Odd. I'll gladly listen to a SSS argument, but I'll also direct you to the 67 combined PAs. Maybe you misread my post (such a "stupid," thought might not have come across clearly) but I'm not opposed to Bader as a short side OF, I just have zero faith that'll actually be his role. The number of options this team can shuffle through isn't what's in question. How they'll choose to invest that playing time is what we're discussing.
  3. KirbyDome89
    The "blocking," aspect is irrelevant, and it's being used as a strawman of sorts by other posters. Is Bader going to be used as a true short side platoon OF and late innings defensive replacement/pinch runner, or are we going to see him getting starts in the corner vs. RHP + CF on Buxton rest days as well as entering games early (5th inning on) as a PH? How long will the least be with that $7M price tag? Again, E-Rod or whoever aren't even part of this discussion. How many PAs will this team feed to a glove only OF in the name of "depth," or defensive flexibility? Is this team actually going to discard a vet they've spent that type of money on? Agreed, we should be fair, but the issue seems to be his idealized role vs. reality.
  4. KirbyDome89
    Usage and opportunity.
  5. KirbyDome89
    Those players also stick in the organization by playing in the minors. This deal is active roster or bust is it not?
  6. KirbyDome89
    No doubt there was a rhetorical element to the question as what anybody is willing to stomach is subjective. I'm unfamiliar with the field but going on title alone I'm assuming it has something to do with maximizing output within given constraints which is (unfortunately) very applicable to this team.
  7. KirbyDome89
    Appreciate the visualization. Idk if I necessarily agree with the "available players," qualifier when measuring Bader's efficiency, but FWIW I don't "hate," the signing so much as the presumed deployment. I actually agree Bader is probably the safest option, but I think he falls below the threshold based on offensive limitations and a lack of options alone; his salary is the cherry on top. Like I said in another post, in a vacuum the signing is certainly defensible, but the issue is twofold, the season doesn't happen in a vacuum, and once you start stacking guys like Bader, France, ect on the roster and vow to hold them in sickness and in health, the Tetris board starts to clog up pretty quickly.
  8. KirbyDome89
    Define "a lot more runs."
  9. KirbyDome89
    Concur, but the when/how/why needs to be part of the calculus here too.
  10. KirbyDome89
    Neither plays good enough defense to justify the number of PAs they'd get so whatever defensive edge either could provide is null. If you're insistent on having another black hole in the lineup, you can pay Keirsey league minimum, have solid if unspectacular CF defense, and throw the $6M+ in savings at somebody who can actually hit. If Keirsey doesn't float your boat you can sacrifice some defense, make Castro the Buxton insurance ergo upgrading your offense while still keeping the savings. If you think that (barring injury) giving 350-400 PAs, at least half of which will come against RHP, to a glove only OF is a good investment then we simply disagree with the resource allocation. It isn't "hating," it's just the reality of the situation. This team absolutely will not use Bader as only a 4th OF option/late innings pinch runner or defensive replacement.
  11. KirbyDome89
    You can find a .543 OPS + defense in house.
  12. KirbyDome89
    100% relevant if Martin can play 2B and you can sign or call up somebody for CF defense. That's Bader with some offensive upside + $6M. Instead they're clinging to washed, or semi washed guys who also might suck, but will occupy a roster spot infinitely longer and cost more.
  13. KirbyDome89
    Matt Wallner sat at AAA with an OPS near 1.000 while Gallo flailed away for nearly 3 months. Martin, as a rookie, at minimum matched Bader's offensive output last year. If defense was that important they could've found a glove only CF option for a lot less. If you want to argue that guys like Bader and France keep the bottom from falling out, I'd say you're patching the hole with paper mache. Nobody has said that France or Bader, in a vacuum, are unreasonable moves, but based on the Twins modus operandi their usage doesn't align with what some are suggesting their role will be. They're also unlikely to get a quick hook, and most importantly, neither moves the needle as far as collecting Ws is concerned.
  14. KirbyDome89
    Not even close.... Don't marry yourself to underperforming players you hope don't continue the trend because you're terrified that cheaper guys with options might underperform.
  15. KirbyDome89
    The sunk cost fallacy is real...
  16. KirbyDome89
    It's not, for the reason you cited in your last sentence. They can't stash him to start the season. This isn't a Tim Beckham break glass in case of emergency type deal.
  17. KirbyDome89
    I definitely have an issue with the organizational philosophy when it comes to player usage.
  18. KirbyDome89
    Gallo: .163/.288/.374 with a 45% K rate and a -1.5 WPA from May 1st onward. Pagan: 1.052 OPS against in high leverage, .850 OPS against with runners on base, -1 WPA as the designated closer Simmons: terrible offensively all season, cratered entirely in the 2nd half of 2021 when he posted a .488 OPS Blocking is irrelevant, continuing to sink innings into bad players is poor enough strategy to make these signings disasters.
  19. KirbyDome89
    I think the "blocking," angle with these signings is being overplayed and/or misrepresented (not by you) The larger issue is that Bader or France won't be given a roster spot to sit on the bench. You're locking yourself into a high risk, low reward player(s) who have no options, zero upside and no future with the club in the hopes they bounce back and outperform what's already in house.
  20. KirbyDome89
    Ditto, I think the only time I was in favor was during those dark mid 2010s years when fringe roster decisions were just shuffling deck chairs. It's kinda pathetic that a few weeks facing AAAA pitching might be enough for France to lock down a roster spot.
  21. KirbyDome89
    Joey Gallo? Emilio Pagan? Andrelton Simmons? This team has clung to at least one severely underperforming vet each of the last 4 years. Rodriguez is a strawman.
  22. KirbyDome89
    Or there's a minor injury, or Miranda has a slow ST, ect. My guess is we'll be beaten over the head with Santana comps if France makes the team and starts slow. The leash will be longer than it should be. This team hates giving up "depth," early in the season.
  23. KirbyDome89
    The greater concern is the opportunity cost. The Twins may part ways with France, but how long is the leash?
  24. KirbyDome89
    What is your case that he'll be used similarly in MN though, that's what I'm asking. Who have the Twins rostered to be a weak side platoon OF and strictly a 8th/9th inning defensive replacement 75% of the time?
  25. KirbyDome89
    He started one NLCS game and he was subbed out in the 6th inning. He appeared in 12 postseason games, started 2, completed one, and had a whopping 9 PAs with one hit. If you can make an actual case for the Twins using Bader in this way you'd ease a large chunk of the concern regarding his signing.
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