I disagree about the month to month swings. I think it provides a better picture for performance. If you want to argue that it's slicing the pie a different way I won't argue, but I'd point out that the pie wasn't all that great in totality.
I wouldn't bet on them either at this point, and my opinion of this team hasn't changed all that much based on their start, No, wining 89 games isn't outrageous. Again, this division is terrible, this team can abuse Chicago, and probably KC (for their remaining games) while holding water against Cleveland and Detroit and hit that mark if things break right.
I think this teams lacks the talent most lament isn't shining through. If they do win win the division I believe it'll be because the ALC is the same type of dumpster fire that it was in 2023.