Jamie Cameron

I'm glad you brought up the 123. They were 7-2 up, against a horrible team. Mind blowing treatment of a pitcher.

Just to be super clear and get ahead of this. I think there is exactly one guy (Skenes) the Twins would target at five. Maybe you could argue two (Dollander). I wrote about five guys because I figured y'all would like to read the profiles for the first round guys. Thomas White is the only guy I didn't write up who I think will go in the first for sure, although there are some fringy first round guys who might sneak in. Thanks all for reading and for the engagement on the Draft.

In the coming weeks, we’ll spend some time going in-depth on players who the Twins could target with the fifth pick. This week, we’re looking at pitchers. For these pieces, we’ll use the positions of players on the Consensus Board as a proxy for who they might take, as opposed to trying to predict what each team will actually do. The goal is to give a flavor of the kind of talent and options that might be around when that pick hits, as we all know trying to predict the draft is perilous at best. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp Paul Skenes Position: RHP, Age: 21, School: LSU, Height: 6’5, Weight: 235, B/T: R/R, Rank: 3 While Skenes being on the board for the Twins at five is unlikely, stranger things have happened in the MLB Draft. The LSU righty has had a record-breaking year, leading many to dub him the best college starting pitching prospect since Gerrit Cole (2011) or Stephen Strasburg (2009). High praise indeed. Let’s take a look at what has everyone so worked up. Skenes is a huge human, at 6’5, 235, he has a prototypical build for a starting pitcher built to throw a lot of innings. Originally a two-way player at Air Force, Skenes focused solely on pitching in 2023 under the tutelage of Wes Johnson, and boy has it paid off. Skenes throws from a three-quarter slot with a flat-angled approach and good carry on his fastball that helps it play up in the zone. He has cranked it up to 102 mph but it typically sits 96-98mph, velocity he can maintain deep into starts. It’s paired with a hellacious sweeper that has up to 13 inches of horizontal movement that he can land for strikes and generates an incredible amount of swing or miss. Skenes also has an average changeup. There’s not a fourth pitch yet although he has thrown a sinker as a second fastball. You might be inclined to think that an arm with that much raw stuff would have control or command issues. Nope. Through late May, Skenes has walked just 18 in 86 2/3 innings of work, to go along with 164 strikeouts (not a typo). There is ace upside to Skenes. Although I don’t love the idea of drafting a pitcher in the top five on principle, you do it for a special prospect, and Skenes fits that description. Chase Dollander Position: RHP, Age: 21, School: Tennessee, Height: 6’3, Weight: 195, B/T: R/R, Rank: 7 Dollander was a consensus top-three pick for the early part of the season. His fall down the rankings is due as much to the rise and dominance of Paul Skenes as it is due to his own uneven performance in 2023. So what does Dollander offer and what type of emphasis should we place on his 2023 performance? While Dollander’s production and stuff have taken a step back in 2023, he’s still an excellent/elite prospect with a ton to offer from a diverse, high-quality arsenal of pitches. His fastball sits 94-96 mph, although it’s hit 99 mph which is thrown from a low release in his three-quarters slot. It’s not an elite pitch but serves to set up his breaking pitches exceptionally well. Dollander has a curveball that is above average and has an excellent chase rate (and a pitch he can land for strikes). His best pitch is probably his slider, a nasty sweeper with a ton of horizontal movement that’s death on hitters. He also has a changeup which has a ton of fade and could be another plus pitch for him. The foundation of four pitches, three of which could be plus, is still incredibly exciting. Two challenges have plagued Dollander in 2023. He’s lost some control, walking almost double the amount of hitters than he did in 2022 at the time of writing. Additionally, his slider metrics have ticked back, resulting in him throwing the pitch less, and having to rely more heavily on his fastball. There have been a number of smart baseball folk suggesting Dollander’s challenges in 2023 are more mechanical than anything else. There’s a front of the rotation arm in there, that's already proved it over the course of the 2022 season. Hurston Waldrep Position: RHP, Age: 21, School: Florida, Height: 6’2, Weight: 205, B/T: R/R, Rank: 13 Waldrep has an argument for the best series of secondary pitches in the entire draft. Originally a relief pitcher for Southern Miss, he transferred to Florida after breaking out as a starter in 2022, amassing 140 strikeouts in just over 90 innings of work. His pitching arsenal is led by a fastball that sits 95-97 mph and has good carry to it, which helps it play up in the zone. The command of the fastball has been inconsistent and he’s been made to throw it far too much for the Gators. Waldrep has a great sweeping slider, which is a 70-grade pitch, and a whiff machine already. That’s paired with a curveball that has more 12-6 action to it. Finally, he throws a devastating split changeup that he’s been able to land for strikes at the bottom of the zone and has a whiff rate north of 60%. Waldrep’s control has been shaky (42 walks in 72 2/3 innings at the time of writing in 2023). He has a drop-and-drive approach on the mound and great arm speed but a noisy delivery. He might be the best argument there is for ignoring performance outcomes in college baseball. He has one of the most complete repertoires of any starter in the draft and a chance for three secondary pitches that are at least plus. I think he has the second most upside of a pitcher in the draft outside of Skenes. Noble Meyer Position: RHP, Age: 18, School: Jesuit HS, OR, Height: 6’5, Weight: 200, B/T: R/R, Rank: 14 Meyer has established himself as the top prep arm in the 2023 draft. Hailing from Jesuit High School in Oregon, which recently produced Mick Abel, Meyer has big projectability that will have organizations excited about what his future holds. Meyer broke out in the summer of 2022 on the showcase circuit, featuring a fastball that sat 95-97 mph, thrown from a slightly deceptive slot that gives hitters fits. He’s been up to triple digits with the pitch this year in shorter starts. He pairs it with a great slider that is generating a ton of swing and miss that he has impressive command over for a prep arm. Meyer also has a changeup that is more of a work in progress. His pitching motion is athletic and repeatable. There’s still a ton of projectability left for Meyer as he fills out more and adds strength. He has a great starter profile and teams with a track record of developing high school pitching should be incredibly excited about Meyer’s long term upside. Rhett Lowder Position: RHP, Age: 21, School: Wake Forest, Height: 6’2, Weight: 200, B/T: R/R, Rank: 15 Lowder qualifies as the highest floor, lowest ceiling member of the four top college pitchers available in July. There’s still plenty to like about Lowder’s profile however and he shined at Wake Forest in 2023, one of the college programs most noted for an analytical approach to player development. Lowder has three pitches he uses regularly. His fastball is a sinker, typically thrown in the 92-95 mph range, although he has reached back for 97 mph. He gets a ton of ground balls with it. He’s also thrown a more typical four seam fastball at the top of the zone to get hitters a different look. For secondary pitches he throws a slider, with more downward break than sweep. His best pitch is a changeup which has a ton of fade and is one of the better examples in the whole class. Lowder caps his profile off with good control and command of all of his pitches. In 2023 he walked just 17 batters in around 90 innings of work with 108 strikeouts at the time of writing. Lowder has a polished, middle of the rotation profile and is likely open to an analytically minded approach. Which of the players profiled do you like best as a fit for your team? Is there anyone you’ve read about or watched who you think is missing? Draft speculation is the best speculation, so join the discussion in the comments. View full article

Posting this for folks who are interested. Here's the Cubs version of this article (pick 13) and the Brewers version (pick 18). Some overlap of prospects written up, but this will get you through 6-8 more if you're looking for more info on potential first rounders. Really appreciate all the engagement from the 'Draft Nerds' lol. My favorite sub-community of Twins Daily

I have nothing against Wilson. I just personally feel that the Twins are in a unique position in a pretty unique draft talent wise with pretty unique financial muscle. Wilson has one skillset, elite bat to ball skills that drives the whole offensive profile. I'm sure he'll be a really good player and maybe I'm wrong and he develops power (he doesn't hit the ball that hard though), I'd just rather take a bigger swing on a potentially team altering prospect, as opposed to someone who might be a solid regular.

110 mph is his 90th percentile EV. Max is over 114, average is 90.1. All elite numbers.

Needed this this AM. Agree with all that, well, reasoned, makes a ton of sense. We haven't dug into this much yet, but as you point out, I could make a more compelling case for 3-5 college hitters slightly under slot at 5 than for Gonzalez or Wilson. I also think it's true that the Twins are usually pretty tight lipped about everything. Usually, in FA for example, when the news hits is when we know. It's so rare to have a clear top 5 like this. To illustrate the gap, Clark's average ranking on my board is 4.8, Gonzalez (who is currently consensus 5, is 9.5), that's a monumental difference that early on the board. Take any of those top five players and I'll be thrilled. No complaints.

In the coming weeks, we’ll spend some time going in-depth on players who the Twins could target with their first pick at number five. We’ll start by profiling some hitters, before looking at pitchers next week. For each installment, we’ll use the positions of players on the Consensus Board as a proxy for who they might take, as opposed to trying to predict what each team will actually do. The goal is to give a flavor of the kind of talent and options that might be around when that pick hits, as we all know trying to predict the draft is perilous at best. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp Wyatt Langford Position: OF, Age: 21, School: Florida, Height: 6’1, Weight: 225, B/T: R/R, Rank: 2 Why would I do this? Why even entertain the idea of a prospect who would ordinarily be under consideration for the number one overall pick being there at number five? Because stranger things have happened. What were the odds Kumar Rocker and Cade Horton were selected in the top seven in 2022? So, let’s complete our due diligence. Langford is an incredibly complete college hitter. His balanced offensive profile points to that of an elite hitter at the next level. Langford erupted out of nowhere at Florida for a then-record 26 home runs as a sophomore after not playing much his freshman year. Langford has a great approach at the plate and a smooth swing. In 2022, he put up a 90th percentile Average Exit Velocity of over 110mph, the best in the nation. This, combined with limited strikeouts, a great BB%, and some of the better contact rates in the class make him as safe a bat as there is not named Dylan Crews. Langford’s other tools can get lost in the shuffle with the noise his offensive profile created. It’s plus speed and at least above-average defense with an above-average arm. He should start his pro career in center field and although he might move to a corner eventually, he’ll likely be a plus defender there. At the time of writing, Langford owns a .395/.524/.814 line with 16 home runs in 49 games. If Langford is on the board at five, the Twins would be elated. Walker Jenkins Position: OF, Age: 18, School: South Brunswick HS, NC, Height: 6’3, Weight: 210, B/T: L/R, Rank: 4 Jenkins is now the top prep prospect in the draft and has been creeping up boards and mock drafts (futile though they are) all spring. Jenkins and Max Clark have similar overall ceilings but are a slightly different flavor of prospect, depending on your preference. Jenkins' carrying offensive tool is currently power, but the hit tool is at least average, maybe above, with a chance to be plus. He’s already showing plenty of in-game power, to both the pull side and opposite field, manufactured by an aesthetically pleasing, loft-heavy swing. Jenkins has posted plus run times but will likely slow some as he continues to fill out and access his power. Even so, he’ll be at least an average runner with a plus arm. Long term, he’s got a good chance to crush 30 home runs in a corner spot. Jenkins has earned rave reviews for his makeup and work ethic. He’s currently committed to North Carolina. Max Clark Position: OF, Age: 18, School: Franklin Community High School, IN, Height: 6’1, Weight: 190, B/T: L/L, Rank: 5 Clark has been a consensus top-five prospect wire to wire. While Indiana isn’t known for being a hotbed of prep talent, Clark is as toolsy as they come. A compact left-handed swing in which the barrel stays through the zone for a long time combined with excellent contact rates combines for an exciting all-around offensive profile. Prior to 2023, Clark was largely a line-drive hitter, spraying barrels all around the field. In the offseason, he tweaked his swing to add more loft and the results have been impressive. Clark should continue to unlock more in-game power as he has good rotation and bat speed to boot. Defensively, he’s a plus center fielder and will easily handle the position in pro ball, already taking effective routes to fly balls. Clark has a plus hit tool (tough for a prep prospect), plus arm, plus defense, and maybe double-plus speed. Combine that with an outstanding work ethic and there’s a Grady Sizemore-like upside. Clark is currently committed to Vanderbilt but will likely be among the first handful of picks in July. Jacob Gonzalez Position: SS, Age: 21, School: Ole Miss, Height: 6’2, Weight: 200, B/T: L/R, Rank: 6 Gonzalez was part of a core handful of players at the top of most draft boards at the beginning of the college season, before falling a little, mostly due to the ascension of other players. Gonzalez is also a storied college prospect, having earned National Freshman of the Year honors, before helping guide Ole Miss to the College World Series in 2022. At the plate, it’s an offensive profile carried by his hit tool. There are some similarities to Brooks Lee in that Gonzalez brings exceptional bat-to-ball skills to the table. Combine that with a strong approach at the plate and you have a plus hit tool. Gonzalez has average power that a team may be able to get him into more. Currently, it’s predominantly to the pull side. The two dings you can give his offense are a lack of loft generated on batted balls and a significant drop-off in Exit Velocity for batted ball events the other way. His combination of offensive profile is going to give a team a strong floor to work with and should move fast through the minor leagues. Defensively, I don’t think he’s a shortstop long-term. Although he has an above-average arm and good defensive actions, he’s not quick and may eventually move to second or third base. Gonzalez makes sense as a ‘Twins type’, a high-floored college hitter, he should move quickly but lacks the ceiling I’d want in a number five pick. At the time of writing, Gonzalez has put together a .327/.435/.564 line with 10 home runs. Kyle Teel Position: C, Age: 21, School: Virginia, Height: 6’1, Weight: 190, B/T: L/R, Rank: 10 A strategy I’m starting to entertain more for the Twins is they take a player outside the consensus top five with their first pick. There are a few compelling reasons they might do this, not least because of their preference for college bats with a high floor and their propensity to pick players who they think can move quickly through the minor leagues. Teel checks both of those boxes and then some. Few players have done more to help themselves in the 2023 college season than Kyle Teel. A dearth of catching talent (both college and prep) and Teel’s impressive offensive breakout have him primed to be a top 15 pick, possibly top 10. Offensively, Teel projects to have above-average hit and power tools, although the former is the carrying tool currently. He has good bat speed and plenty of analytically friendly outputs of his approach at the plate. His in zone contact rates are excellent, and despite some swing and miss, Teel spoils plenty of pitches outside the zone such that he’s a tough out. Defensively, there’s work to do but he should stick behind the plate. He’s one of the best athletes in the entire college class and his excellent movement skills should help him improve quickly defensively (in addition to the ‘at least’ plus arm). Teel has put up a monster 2023. At the time of writing, he owns a .414/.480/.668 line with 11 home runs in 55 games. Also considered: Enrique Bradfield, OF (8), Arjen Nimmala, SS (9), Jacob Wilson (11), Tommy Troy, 2B (12), Chase Davis, OF (26) Which of the players profiled do you like best as a fit for the Twins? Is there anyone you’ve read about or watched who you think is missing? Draft speculation is the best speculation, so join the discussion in the comments. View full article

That board hasn't been updated since March-ish (maybe some guys have been added). Almost every other board has moved Taylor down (regression of in-zone contact numbers). Still think he has a really good profile to succeed.

Thanks for the kind words. I also, have no clue who is going to go where lol. I DO think though, given the list of names you mentioned, that someone of really good value will likely be around at 34.

Horvath is so interesting to me. Consistently rated outside top 100 but produced like a top 50 guy.

Seen quite a few threads on Dollander that suggest his issues are more mechanical than anything else. I'm anti-pitching with a top 5 pick in general unless it's a truly outstanding prospect, and i think only Skenes fits that bill.

Great point about the comp pick and I love the targets you picked out. I think Davis will be a top 15 pick but the ones you mention are great 'Twinsy' profiles.

I think Teel is going to make it a top 6 when it's all said and done. The bar for producing value is so much lower there and the fact that he can run too (doesn't steal a lot but is fast) adds more. I'm expecting chaos when we finally get to July. This time last year, we were all talking about how one of the consensus top 6 wouldn't get to the Twins and they ended up with a choice of Lee, Parada, or Collier lol

Northside Baseball, Cubs!

The Twins are in a great position ahead of the 2023 MLB Draft. They hold four top 100 picks (5, 34, 49, and 82) and have the fourth most money to spend ($14,345,600) despite having the thirteenth worst record in MLB in 2022. Plus, 2023 is one of the deeper draft classes in recent years. Let's take a look at some of the prospects available to teams in July. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp How to Use This Tool This is hopefully easy to navigate. For a full explainer on the what, why, and how, here’s the explainer for V1. For each ranked player, you’ll see position, age, ranking, school, first name, last name, height, weight, handedness (S=switch), future value (not yet), and writeup. Every top 100 player has a writeup, if you hover over the report icon for that player, it’ll give you notes on players tools, strengths, areas of growth, and recent performance. What’s New for V2? Here’s some brief notes about V2 of the Consensus Board: The rankings are based on a consensus from 10 draft boards that provide a range of evaluations from well-known industry standard boards, to more data-driven boards. I DID NOT update writeups for the players who remained in the top 100 from the beginning of May. I’ll update them a final time on a rolling basis between June and July. I added ten more writeups for prospects who moved into the consensus top 100 since the beginning of May. If you see a prospect outside the top 100 with a writeup, it means they’ve fallen out (I’m not adding new reports outside the top 100). Finally, I color coded the top 75 players to track risers and fallers between V1 and V2. Specifically: Light green - moved up 5-9 spots Dark green - moved up 10+ spots Light red - moved down 5-9 spots Dark red - moved down 10+ spots What’s Next? The Consensus Board will get one more big update, to be published at the beginning of July. Additionally, there will be updates to the notes of the most significant prospects, accounting for their end of season performance (particularly for college players), in addition to future value grades added for prospects in the final version of the board. The final rankings will also be published as articles at all three sites. I recognize that some folks may prefer to consume rankings as an article, so I’ll publish them with write ups as part of a 2 or 3 part series in the final week leading up to the draft, working to get players highlights added to those pieces. If you have questions or feedback about the process or generation of the board, please use the comments. I want readers at all three sites to feel well-informed and excited about the draft and the influx of talent to their favorite teams. Whether it's an idea to make the rankings better, catching a mistake (I’m sure there are some), or a comment on who you want your team to draft, we’d love to hear from you. Jeremy Nygaard and I will be working to provide y’all with comprehensive draft coverage as July gets closer, so let’s chop it up! 2023 Consensus MLB Draft Board V2 View full article

Good Q and thanks for reading, Cory. Don't know that there a ton of candidates that fit the bill for a move like that so far, kinda depends on how later versions of the board shake out, maybe Eldridge, but he's getting top 12 buzz now. Tbh, a lot of the prospects I'm most interested in who fit in the top 50 are college bats. My best case scenario as currently constructed would be Clark or Jenkins, followed by two college bats or college bat and best arm you like. I don't think Teel is going to go that much under slot as he's starting to get 'third best college bat' behind Crews and Langford type of descriptors thrown around. Overall, too early to say.

Typo. Thanks so much for catching that. Fixed on the board.

He's listed as an outfielder by SDSU. Additionally, most national outlets position him as a SS or OF. Maybe a team drafts him with a view to him being a C but that's certainly not how the majority of evaluators seems to see him currently.

Wilson is an interesting one. Agree the hit tool is amazing. The main reason I think he's dinged is he's not going to be a shortstop long term. He might play there, but he first step is too slow imo. If he's not a SS, I wonder where his defensive home is and where ever that might be (3B?) his power-lacking offensive profile doesn't really match.

Thanks for the kind words. Been working on it since February lol. Agree with pretty much everything you said. I think you can include Langford as a top 3 lock. I prefer Jenkins to Clark but I like both. Wouldn't b a huge fan of a Jacob Gonzalez pick, just a little safe and vanilla for me but seen him linked a lot. Teel has a good shot at a top 10 pick. Tommy Troy is Brian Dozier 2.0 so I think those are both good shouts for under slot guys if they decide to go that route.