Jamie Cameron

Luke Keaschall has hit everywhere he’s gone is his brief MiLB career. Can he impact the Twins this season? Where might he fit in defensively? How do projection systems like him for 2025? View full video

A new blog post from Tom Tango illustrated that bat speed falls precipitously after age 31. Does 31-year-old Byron Buxton have anything to worry about? Let's dig in. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images We’re a full year into bat speed metrics being publicly available via Baseball Savant. Prior to a second full year of data, now seems like a logical time to take stock of what to expect from Twins hitters in 2025. Recently, MLB’s Tom Tango released a blog post describing the relationship between aging and bat speed. While this is grounded in only one full season of data, there are some cromulent TwinsCentric conclusions to draw that may be relevant in 2025. Here’s the headline: between ages 22-31, bat the aging curve of bat speed is very flat (dropping ~0.02 mph per year). From age 31 onwards, it decreases sharply (0.31 mph per year). Which Twin just turned 31? Byron Buxton. How could his bat speed be impacted by his age? In turn, could his overall offensive production be hurt by an age-related decrease in bat speed? Let’s dig in. Before getting player specific, let’s reground in some league-wide bat speed context. League average bat speed is 72 mph. ‘A fast swing’ is 75 mph. Why is the 75 mph threshold important? 75 mph of swing speed is where you see per-swing offensive production reach league average. The drop off in per-swing production below 75 mph is considerable. In other words, swing hard, ball go far. How does Byron Buxton fit into all these bat speed metrics? Pretty dang well, thank you very much. Buxton ranked third on the Twins in average swing speed (74.3 mph), coming in only behind Carlos Correa (74.5 mph) and Matt Wallner, who is in a league of his own (77.3 mph). How about fast swing rate? Same story. Buxton ranked third on the Twins, with 41.8% of his swings exceeding the 75 mph threshold (league average 22.6%). Place that in league wide context, and Buxton looks good, ranking 43rd out of 268 major league hitters in fast swing rate (minimum 500 swings in 2024). If a typical player loses about 1 mph of bat speed every three years after age 31, we might look at Buxton’s average swing speed (2.3 mph above league average) and make the argument that this is an open and shut case of something we shouldn’t be too worried about. Buxton has some cushion with how fast his swing is, sure, but is there anything else to consider here? As is the case with most baseball questions, the answer is, ‘maybe’? Let’s throw some other variables in the mix. Starting with a visual of where Buxton does the majority of his damage. We can see that Buxton squares up the majority of his batted balls on pitches on the outer third of the plate. It’s also worth noting Buxton’s swing length, here. At 8.1 feet, it’s a long swing, significantly longer than league average (7.3 feet). It’s worth wondering what the impact of declining bat speed would be for Buxton, given the context of a long swing which thrives on the outer third of the plate? Buxton is also a hitter whose swing is rather stiff and whose output heavily relies on power, so is it possible the swing speed aging curve impacts a profile like his more acutely than a player with a more balanced offensive profile? Given Buxton’s swing speed and fast swing percentage cushion (compared to league average), it seems unlikely his offensive production is in immediate danger. Still, Buxton will be an interesting profile to track as he ages given his combination of swing length, the part of the plate he does damage in, and the lack of malleability of his swing. View full article

Draft tandem Jeremy Nygaard and JD Cameron team up for a podcast to discuss prospects on their way to the big leagues and the MLB draft, produced by Theo Tollefson. Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo In episode 65 of Destination: The Show, Jeremy and Jamie work through news and notes from the offseason. They start by digging into the Jays signing Anthony Santander, asking if that is enough, or if more moves are on the way for Toronto. The guys dig into the Cubs missing out on Tanner Scott and whether that might be a blessing in disguise given the terms of his contract with the Dodgers. They provide updates on the Twins ownership situation with Justin Ishbia said to be a ‘very, very serious’ potential option. The guys then dig into dueling top ten Brewers prospect lists. Who do they have as number one on their list? Who rounds out the top ten after the four clear cut top prospects are ranked? Finally, they end with a mailbag question on Twins left-handed pitching prospect Michael Carpenter. 0:00 Intro 2:00 Baseball! 2:25 Roki Sasaki 5:25 Sasaki Fallout 8:04 Tanner Scott to the Dodgers 13:18 Twins Ownership Updates 16:15 Brewers Top 10 Prospects 1:03:15 Listener Question 1:07:30 Housekeeping You can support the show by downloading it from wherever you get your podcasts, including iTunes and Spotify. If you enjoy the content, consider leaving us a five-star rating and review in addition to sharing or retweeting DTS-related content. You can follow us on Twitter @DTS_POD1, @Jeremynygaard, @J_D_Cameron, and @TheodoreTollef1. We’re now on Bluesky @destinationtheshow.bsky.social. You can also find full episodes and clips of our shows on our YouTube page @DestinationTheShow. View full article

There's always a new frontier in pitching stats. This one happens to be pretty flattering for your friendly neighborhood sophomore starter. Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images Last week, Baseball Prospectus released a slew of new arsenal metrics to add to their suite of pitching numbers. The aim of arsenal-based metrics, in general, is to overcome the limitations of pitch models, which largely measure the effect of each pitch in isolation. The advantages of having a diverse arsenal that Stephen Sutton Brown and BP focused on are twofold: Having more pitches one throws fairly regularly reduces the likelihood that a batter will become familiar with a particular offering from a pitcher Having pitches that appear similar in flight (before spin- and seam-induced movement take hold) increases the difficulty of judging where and when a pitch will cross home plate, increasing the challenge of making effective swing decisions. BP’s model identifies four new metrics, which require a rudimentary summary before we apply them to help contextualize the Twins pitching staff. For each, there’s a high-level definition, along with some general takeaways for their application. Pitch Type Probability: The likelihood a batter can identify the pitch type given the release point and trajectory, until a swing decision is made and given the count it was thrown in. Headlines: Not only is having a wide array of pitches useful, this helps us understand that consistent vertical and horizontal release points, arm angles etc. can be advantageous to pitchers. Pitchers can create maximum confusion for hitters by combining clustered release points with varied ranges of movement and velocity. Movement Spread: The size of the variation in possible pitch movement, assuming the probability the pitch is any of those in the pitcher’s repertoire and considering the movement profiles of those pitches. Headlines: More obvious, perhaps, than Pitch Type Probability. A greater movement spread increases the pitcher’s ability to deceive a hitter. Velocity Spread: As above, for velocity instead of movement. Headlines: As above for Movement Spread. Surprise Factor: How unexpected the pitch movement was based on the distribution of possible pitch movements via the Movement Spread. Headlines: Essentially, this is a measure of the density of distributions for a given pitch's observed movement. To distill this down. How confident can a batter be that the pitch they think is coming, is in fact coming? The higher the surprise factor, the tougher time they will have guessing what pitch is coming and where it will cross the plate. As with any new metrics or models, the fun comes from working to contextualize them within your team of interest. In this case, that’s the Twins, and specifically the back end of the rotation. We know the heart of the Twins’ rotation is strong. Anchored by Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober, ZiPS projects that trio to accumulate roughly 9 fWAR in 2025. But what of the back end of the rotation? There are a number of candidates for consideration, all with their own strengths and limitations. Can these new arsenal metrics help us understand who is best positioned to start 2025 in the rotation? Who needs work at Triple A? Who shouldn’t be part of the picture at all? View full article

Not saying you're wrong, but I'd not rely too heavily on ANY biographical information from any website.

Great suggestion. I'm not sure. FWIW, while I think it's worth monitoring, there's no explicit signs he's been flipped somewhere else, all his SM is still connected to the Twins

A few people have asked that. Class wise, I think it's about typical. I think we're doing a bit better of a job of telling the stories of the prospects now. Pitching wise, usually don't hear much about them as they are smaller bonus guys. Hear you on the catchers. Pay attention to Salazar, he's a guy worth monitoring from this class.

Thanks for reading it!

The Twins were active and aggressive early in the international free agent signing period, flipping two prospects from other organizations. Read up on their class with bonus news, scouting reports, and thoughts on their approach. Image courtesy of Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) on X/Twitter The signing period for International Free Agency opened on January 15th, 2025. The Twins are one of eight teams that will have the joint largest bonus pool of $7,555,500. Now that we’re a couple of days in, it’s time for a more full-throated roundup of the Twins class. This update is especially relevant since Minnesota’s class has been added to since our preview article a week or so ago. Listed below, you’ll find the players in the class (to date), followed by their position and country of origin (if known). If they have a bonus reported, that’s listed in parentheses too. I’d take these with a grain of salt. You can find an approximate ‘total pool spent’ figure at the bottom of the player pool. Daniel De La Valle, C, Colombia Aaron Salazar, C, Venezuela Pablo Castillo, C Santiago Castellanos, RHP, Venezuela Juan Quiñones, LHP, Venezuela Eliezer Lucena, RHP, Venezuela Rainer Marin, RHP, Venezuela Eli Urena, RHP, Dominican Republic Angel Castillo, P Juan Figaro, P Brandy Ceballos, P Jensi Infante, P Carlos Taveras, OF, Dominican Republic ($1,200,000), signing reported by Francys Romero on 02.11.25 Teilon Serrano, OF, Dominican Republic ($1,000,000) Joyner Perez, OF, Dominican Republic Jhomnardo Reyes, OF, Dominican Republic Cristian Bonifacio, OF, Dominican Republic Yovani Duran, OF Christian Bonifacio, OF Santiago Leon, SS, Venezuela ($1,000,000) Haritzon Castillo, SS, Venezuela ($950,000) Jose Barrios, SS, Venezuela ($850,000) Dencer Diaz, IF, Dominican Republic ($400,000) Darwin Almanzar, SS, Dominican Republic ($200,000) Jamesson Val, 3B, Haiti Confirmed Bonus Total Spent: ~$5,600,000 As alluded earlier, there has been significant movement in the Twins class since last week. They’ve flipped two prospects from other organizations, one due to the fallout from the Roki Sasaki waiting game. The Twins added OF Teilon Serrano out of the DR, stacking a few hundred thousand atop his previous bonus from the LA Dodgers, who remain in Roki limbo. The Twins also flipped IF Dencer Diaz from Atlanta for a $400,000 bonus. You can find more in depth scouting reports for the Twins major signings at the bottom of this article. Other Notes From the Class Santiago Castellanos is the prospect easiest to get excited about in this class. The Venezuelan right-handed pitcher has popped in recent months, and has been up to 97 mph with his fastball, with a feel for spin. Jose Barrios (not to be confused with Berríos) is another top one hundred bonus prospect, a solid all around skillset at shortstop with line drive power. If he makes the majors, Jamesson Val would make history. He’d be the first baseball player from Haiti ever to make the majors, so he’ll be a prospect who's easy to root for. Joyner Perez is a stocky right-handed outfielder who shows an ability to hit the ball hard with consistency, despite a lack of premium athleticism. Jhomnardo Reyes is the opposite, already 6’1 with a ton of power from the left side of the plate. Look out for Venezuelan catcher Aaron Salazar and Dominican shortstop Darwin Almanzar as two dark horse prospects to click this summer. Teilon Serrano, OF, Dominican Republic Serrano was previously set to sign with the Dodgers, who seem to be attempting to convince their prospects to wait to sign, or to sign next year. Serrano opted not to wait. A left-handed hitter who currently stands at 6’1, Serrano has good athleticism and a well-rounded offensive profile. The hit tool overshadows power currently, with excellent bat-to-ball skills headlining the skill set. Serrano was previously a shortstop who recently switched to the outfield. That will undoubtedly be a learning curve, but plus speed gives him a chance to stick in centerfield. Dencer Diaz, IF, Dominican Republic I haven’t been able to find good reports on Diaz yet, but he’s another flip for the Twins. Originally, he had a deal with the Braves, but he reentered the market after they signed Raudy Reyez (a 16-year-old pitcher who has allegedly been up to 100 mph). Diaz will sign with the Twins for $400,000. Santiago Leon, SS, Venezuela The Twins boast a strong Venezuelan class in 2025, headlined by Santiago Leon, a 16-year old shortstop and son of longtime Twins scout Jose Leon. Santiago is a right-handed hitting prospect already standing 6’1 with an offensive skill set headlined by a patient approach at the plate. Scouts are complimentary of both Leon’s bat-to-ball skills, in addition to his selectivity at the plate. While Leon doesn’t have explosive athleticism, he has good hands and moves well defensively, which, combined with an above average arm, gives him a chance to stick at shortstop. Leon is expected to sign the 20th-largest bonus for an international prospect in the 2025 signing period, per Baseball America. He signed for ~$1 million. Carlos Taveras, OF, Dominican Republic Carlos Taveras, a 16-year old outfielder out of the DR, is already an imposing physical presence and an impressive athlete. Standing at 6’1, he’s a left-handed hitter with good bat speed and the potential to boast serious raw power as he develops. There’s some swing and miss to his offensive game, but there’s plenty of other tools to like, too. Taveras is an above average runner with an above average arm, a combination that should allow him to play centerfield, at least early in his professional career. He’s one of the youngest players in the international class this year. Taveras is expected to sign the 39th-largest bonus for an international prospect in the 2025 signing period, per Baseball America. His expected signing bonus is ~$1.2 million. After a delay of almost a month, Francys Romero is reporting that Taveras signed for the Twins on 02.11.25, shortly after turning 16. Haritzon Castillo, SS, Venezuela Haritzon Castillo is a switch hitting 16-year-old shortstop prospect out of Venezuela. Castillo doesn’t have a standout tool, and offensively, it’s a profile more similar to Leon’s, than Taveras’. Castillo is currently a hit-over-power offensive profile, with a good approach and direct swings from both sides of the plate. Defensively, Castillo might profile as a prospect who moves around the infield, with the versatility to become a positionally flexible infielder. Castillo is expected to sign the 47th largest bonus for an international prospect in the 2025 signing period, per Baseball America. He signed for ~$950,000 How do we tie all of this in a bow? This is a fun class. It’s balanced, both geographically, positionally, and in terms of skill-sets acquired. The Twins were aggressive in the market, flipping two prospects who had deals in place with other, high performing organizations. The reality is, many of these deals were made by the Fred Guerrero led Twins international scouting department, rather than current leadership. Still, as always, this class will be a fun follow in summer ball. View full article

Draft tandem Jeremy Nygaard and JD Cameron team up for a podcast to discuss prospects on their way to the big leagues and the MLB draft, produced by Theo Tollefson. Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo In episode 64 of Destination: The Show, Jeremy and Jamie work through news and notes from the offseason. They start by digging into the Roki Sasaki finalists and ask if the Cubs were the team that needed to add Sasaki the most, before touching on their signing of Colin Rea. The guys dig into the Twins flipping a Dodgers international free agent prospect and their trade for former top catching prospect Diego Cartaya. They go in depth on the Twins ZiPS projections in which one of the best bullpens in baseball and a top ten starting rotation badly need to be supplemented by some more offense. The guys then dig into a listener mailbag, talking through which Twins prospects are most likely to feature at Cedar Rapids in 2025, asking how the Twins will reintroduce Luke Keaschall to baseball this spring, and naming some Twins pitching prospects most likely to leap multiple levels this summer. 0:00 Intro 2:58 Cubs sign Colin Rea 5:00 Roki Sasaki 16:00 Twins Flip Dodgers Int'l Prospect 22:15 Twins Add Diego Cartaya 29:52 Twins Notes 32:53 Twins ZiPS 46:28 Listener Questions 1:02:13 Outro You can support the show by downloading it from wherever you get your podcasts, including iTunes and Spotify. If you enjoy the content, consider leaving us a five-star rating and review in addition to sharing or retweeting DTS-related content. You can follow us on Twitter @DTS_POD1, @Jeremynygaard, @J_D_Cameron, and @TheodoreTollef1. We’re now on Bluesky @destinationtheshow.bsky.social. You can also find full episodes and clips of our shows on our YouTube page @DestinationTheShow. View full article

MLB dot com recently released it's annual survey of MLB executives and front office staff. For the Twins, there should be plenty of future optimism despite a slow offseason. Let's dig into the important takeaways and perceptions of the Twins from inside the industry. Image courtesy of © Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News/USA Today Network The offseason has been slow and cold for Twins fans. Budget limitations and ownership uncertainty have handcuffed a front office who usually move deliberately through winter. Despite the inevitable frustration, there is plenty to be optimistic about regarding the future of the Twins organization, highlighted by MLB dot com’s recent executive survey. The survey anonymously polls front office executives, scouting directors and personnel, player development staff and analytics departments on a wide variety of topics from pre-season awards favorites to which teams draft and develop the most effectively. The survey received responses from all 30 MLB organizations. Here’s the most important Twins takeaways. The Twins are Flush with High Impact Prospects Would you rather have a farm system headlined by depth or impact talent? The Twins have the latter, and Walker Jenkins received plenty of plaudits in the survey. He was ranked as the third best prospect overall (6.1% of the vote), the fourth best hitter (11.1%), as having the best hit tool (11.1%), and the 7th best usable power (6.5%). Cut it any way you want; there’s industry belief that Walker Jenkins is the real deal. He’ll start 2025 at AA as a 19-year-old, so it’s easy to see why. Perhaps surprisingly, Emmanuel Rodriguez didn’t receive any attention in the survey, but he is now a consensus top 20 global prospect on the cusp of the majors with a tantalizing combination of power and swing decisions. Luke Keaschall did come up, tying for first place (6.4%) as the most underrated prospect in baseball. He’s catapulted himself to top 75 global prospect status, too, and should start the year healthy at AA after TJ surgery cut short his 2024 season. The Twins are One of the Better Drafting Organizations in Baseball Until the ownership situation is resolved, the Twins are more reliant than ever on drafting and developing MLB contributors in house. Looking at their 40 man roster, 23 players were drafted (or signed on the international market) by Minnesota. The Twins were votes tied fifth for the organization who drafts the best. Looking beyond their current MLB roster, there’s 3 more prospects in top 100 lists (Jenkins, Rodriguez, Keaschall), and many more intriguing arms and bats throughout the system. While you might argue the Twins have found more success in the middle rounds of the draft than at the top, their track record is strong in the Falvey regime. Notably, there was no mention of the Twins in questions surrounding performance on the international market. Emmanuel Rodriguez could alter that perception, but the Twins have had a disappointing run in recent seasons of their top international prospects ‘popping’. There were a number of standout performers in 2024, including Daiber De Los Santos, Eduardo Beltre, and Yasser Mercedes, with Danny De Andrade and Ricardo Olivar also noteworthy on slightly higher organizational rungs. Prospect Turnover Masks the Strength of the Twins Young Core The Twins didn’t receive any votes for best farm system despite finishing third overall in MLB Pipeline’s midseason update. So what gives? Turnover. The Twins graduated Brooks Lee and David Festa from their farm system (with Zebby Matthews soon to follow). This is why I much prefer a ‘pre-arb talent ranking’, or ‘young talent ranking’. Organizations like the Twins are not only reliant on drafting and developing their own contributors, but they need to produce those contributors in relatively short order. The Twins have a ton of young talent. The organization also received votes for the best at developing pitching and was graded out as fourth best for finding and developing sleeper prospects (hello Payton Eeles). One barometer of their player development for me in 2025? Can they add another name to global top one hundred prospect lists who's not currently featured on them? Aside from any offseason frustration, what do you make of the health of the Twins organization? Who or what are you high or low on entering 2025? View full article

JD Cameron gives a breakdown of Haritzon Castillo, one of the headliners of the Twins forthcoming international prospect class View full video

Draft tandem Jeremy Nygaard and JD Cameron team up for a podcast to discuss prospects on their way to the big leagues and the MLB draft, produced by Theo Tollefson. Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo In episode 63 of Destination: The Show, Jeremy and Jamie work through news and notes from the mid-offseason freeze in activity. They break down the Micky Gaspar for Jovani Moran trade, talk through the Cubs incredibly aggressive ZiPS projections, dive into Brent Rooker’s extension to remain an A and speculate about the possibility of the Twins having a new ownership group by Opening Day. The guys then preview the forthcoming international window, which opens on January 15th. The guys talk through the bonus pool system, the complications of the Roki Sasaki signing, and why pitchers don’t typically sign for large bonuses. They walk through the headliners of the Brewers, Cubs, and Twins classes and reflect on the approach of each organization to acquiring and leveraging international talent. Finally, they finish with a mailbag question on potential breakout prospects for the Twins. 0:00 Intro 4:00 News Whip Around 27:00 International Signing Window 34:30 Brewers Preview 45:25 Cubs Preview 49:42 Twins Preview 1:02:00 Outro You can support the show by downloading it from wherever you get your podcasts, including iTunes and Spotify. If you enjoy the content, consider leaving us a five-star rating and review in addition to sharing or retweeting DTS-related content. You can follow us on Twitter @DTS_POD1, @Jeremynygaard, @J_D_Cameron, and @TheodoreTollef1. We’re now on Bluesky @destinationtheshow.bsky.social. You can also find full episodes and clips of our shows on our YouTube page @DestinationTheShow. View full article

With the international signing window set to open on Jan. 15, let’s take a look at some of the Twins’ best international prospect signings in modern history and examine how they’ve performed on the international market in recent seasons. Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-Imagn Images 4. Miguel Sanó 8.1 fWAR (1 fWAR average) over 8 seasons, peak 2.7 fWAR Sanó was the most famous international prospect signed by the Twins in recent history, commanding a then-record $3.15-million bonus in 2009. Sanó put together some outstanding offensive spurts for the Twins, including a memorable 18-home run, 149 wRC+ 80-game debut in 2015. He never surpassed his 2.7 fWAR peak, however, and limited defensive value and off-the-field controversy colored his time with the organization. 3. Luis Arraez 6.6 fWAR (1.65 fWAR average) over 4 seasons, peak 2.7 fWAR Arraez signed out of Venezuela for a mere $40,000 in 2013. From a simple return-on-investment perspective, he’s close to the top of the list. A fan favorite who averaged a 119 wRC+ in four seasons in Minnesota, Arraez remains one of the best pure hitters in MLB. In addition to his contributions to wins through his play, he netted the organization a significant asset in Pablo López, who has already accrued 7.8 fWAR for the Twins and will be going into his third season anchoring the rotation in 2025. 2. Jorge Polanco 15.4 fWAR (1.54 fWAR average) over 10 seasons, peak 4.0 fWAR Polanco garnered a $700,000 bonus out of the DR in 2009. Polanco logged 832 games in a Twins uniform over 10 seasons. In only two of those seasons was he a below-average hitter. He cranked 112 home runs, added 181 doubles and carried a 109 wRC+ in nine full seasons with the Twins. A fan favorite, Polanco was undoubtedly one of the best international prospect signings in recent Twins history. 1. Max Kepler 18.6 fWAR (1.86 fWAR average) over 10 seasons, peak 3.9 fWAR Kepler was signed for $750,000 out of Germany in the 2009 international signing window. Despite being a league-average hitter, he brought a ton of value on defense, logging 1,072 starts for the Twins, mostly in right field. He hit 161 home runs and belted 205 doubles in a Twins uniform. While he was offensively mercurial, he’s probably the most valuable international prospect investment the Twins have made in the last 20 years. While Minnesota has added value through other international prospects, including those not signed by the organization (such as Jhoan Durán), it’s been a while since a home-grown international prospect was an everyday player for the organization. The Twins will be hoping that changes soon, with Emmanuel Rodriguez likely to debut in 2025. View full article