Jamie Cameron

Carson McCusker is another hidden gem unearthed by the Twins putting up production in 2024 that's hard to ignore. What are his strengths, opportunities, and has he made his way into the Twins roster plans for 2025 and beyond? View full video

Since his call-up to the Majors, Brooks Lee has seen many more times of struggles over success, but is this just a sign of how hard the Major Leagues are, especially when debuting with an injury? Jamie and Jeremy break down if this is a rookie slump or a long-term concern. View full video

Draft tandem Jeremy Nygaard and JD Cameron team up for a podcast to discuss prospects on their way to the big leagues and the MLB draft, produced by Theo Tollefson. Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo In episode 50 of Destination: The Show, Jeremy and Jamie start a marathon review of what's been a great year for the Twins farm system. They focus on six players at the top of the system (Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Brooks Lee, Luke Keaschall, Zebby Matthews and David Festa) and walk through an overview of their respective seasons. Jeremy and Jamie dig into some of their data and ask if it's 'stock up, stock down, or stock neutral' for each prospect. The guys dig into how to parse injury/end of season wear and tear with performance and try and put the ups and downs of rookie starting pitchers into big picture perspective. There's also some great listener questions, banter about the fancy seats at Target Field, and a preview of an exciting guest joining the show next week. 0:00 Intro 3:51 Jamie's New Gig 6:05 How to support the show 8:30 Walker Jenkins 16:18 E-Rod 30:19 Brooks Lee 38:14 Luke Keaschall 45:23 Zebby Matthews 51:05 David Festa You can support the show by downloading it from wherever you get your podcasts, including iTunes and Spotify. If you enjoy the content, consider leaving us a five-star rating and review in addition to sharing or retweeting DTS-related content. You can follow us on Twitter @DTS_POD1, @Jeremynygaard, @J_D_Cameron, and @TheodoreTollef1. You can also find full episodes and clips of our shows on our YouTube page @DestinationTheShow. View full article

Entering the 2024 season, Brooks Lee was a consensus global top-35 prospect. He's been poor offensively in his limited playing time in the big leagues, though. What's at the heart of his struggles at the plate? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports (photo of Brooks Lee) It hasn’t been a smooth rookie season for Brooks Lee. A highly-ranked prospect entering 2024, Lee caught the eye in Spring Training, to the tune of a .963 OPS. Shortly after being assigned to minor-league camp, though, Lee was shut down in late March with what was described as back spasms. Those turned out to be a herniated disc that required two months of rehab, with Lee eventually starting a Complex League rehab assignment in late May. Lee debuted with the Twins on Jul. 4, before cranking a two-run home run against the Astros on Jul. 6. In early August, The Athletic reported Lee was dealing with shoulder soreness that ultimately resulted in an IL stint starting on Aug. 9, due to bicep tendonitis. Lee completed a brief rehab stint in St Paul, before returning to MLB action in early September. Lee has largely struggled during his inaugural big-league campaign. Through Wednesday, he’s hitting .222/.267/.319, with 7 extra-base hits in 37 MLB games. Why include such a tedious overview of Lee’s health challenges to open this piece? Because I don’t want to preclude the possibility that Lee is playing hurt, is incredibly worn down, or both. Any conjecture on his current physical condition on my part would be irresponsible speculation, so let’s focus on the data behind some of Lee’s 2024 struggles. What is going on under the hood here? Coming into 2024, it was clear Lee had challenges with his right-handed swing. Indeed, it was reported widely earlier this season that Lee had worked feverishly throughout the offseason to correct his poor output as a right-handed hitter in MiLB in 2023. So what has been the fruit of his labor? He’s crushed as a right-handed hitter in Triple-A in 2024. At the major-league level, it’s all been a struggle, with a slightly better performance from the right side. The dark humor shouldn’t be lost here. Lee worked extensively on his swing against left-handed pitching, which he’s seen in 48 MLB plate appearances, and now looks destitute against right-handed pitching (98 plate appearances). Can you go back to what you were doing in 2023, Brooks? What about those swings, though? Are they tangibly different in how they are impacting the baseball? Thanks to Baseball Savant’s impeccable timing, we can now answer that question. A quick primer on Statcast’s relatively new swing metrics: This season, Baseball Savant made swing data public. Here’s some important nuggets before we discuss Brooks Lee. A ‘fast swing’ is defined as a swing at 75 mph or greater. In the first month of the 2024 season, ~25% of swings were classified as ‘fast’. In very general terms, players who swing ‘fast’ more frequently outproduce those who don’t. Swing length is another metric we’ll use here. Simply, this measures in feet, the distance from the start of the swing to the point the bat impacts the baseball. Again, generally, longer swings produce more power, and often more miss. An average MLB swing is 7.3 feet. So, how do Brooks Lee’s swings plug into all this new fancy mumbo jumbo? Well, it might not surprise you to learn that Brooks Lee’s swings are shortish (6.9 feet on average) and slow (69.1 mph average). What might surprise you more is how different they are from each other. Lee’s left-handed swing (the one lauded throughout his career) is the slower of the two (68.7 mph vs 69.9 mph on average). Only 2.7% of Lee’s left-handed swings meet the ‘fast swing’ threshold of 75 mph+, compared to 8.6% of his right-handed swings. Lee’s left-handed swing is also a little shorter (6.8 feet vs 7.0 feet). It came as a surprise to me that Lee’s erstwhile stronger side per scouting reports (left-handed) is the slower, shorter swing currently. My question is whether there’s a mechanical issue with his swing from the left-side currently, whether technical or injury-related. It’s also worth noting that Lee’s bat speed is significantly below average. That’s not a death knell by any means, but it’s a challenge he has to navigate with a strong approach at the plate. So, what are some of Lee’s outputs that might be impacted by his swings? It’s worth noting here that Lee hasn’t been particularly good from the left or the right side in his limited MLB playing time, but the right-handed swing is the one currently set up to produce consistently better outcomes. Avg Swing Speed Avg Swing Length 90th Percentile EV LA Hit95+% OPS As LHH 68.7 mph 6.8 feet 99.8 mph 11.8 23% .562 As RHH 69.9 mph 7.0 feet 102.4 mph 14.2 30.6% .618 Any player’s swing metrics are an important piece of the puzzle, but not the only one. It’s important to dig into other data, as our notion of what Lee is as a hitter (currently) is belied by some other intriguing numbers. What of Lee’s approach, though? Lee talked prior to Wednesday’s series finale against the Angles about how his approach had been ‘in the dumps’. How is this reflection born out, or not, in his data? Well, he’s right. Lee chases, and I mean a ton. He’s currently chasing at a 34.3% clip, that’s ~15th percentile in MLB and way higher than average (28.3%). Lee chases, and it’s important to note how and where he chases. It’s everywhere. As you can see from the figure below, Lee chases to all compass points, giving pitchers a significant margin for error in devising a plan of attack to induce non-competitive swings. Additionally, Lee has become a more aggressive swinger, in general. He swung at 47.2% of pitches in July, 54.5% in August, and is up to 57.1% thus far in September. His in-zone swing percentage has fluctuated around its average for the season and he hasn’t seen improved outcomes from swinging more, making me question whether it’s part of a proactive approach, or he’s pressing at the plate. It’s tough to tie all of this in a bow. Lee has battled through a long season, he’s had two injuries that have impacted and interrupted his playing time. There’s certainly a strong enough minor-league track record to not be overly concerned, long-term. If Lee is going to become a consistent, high-quality MLB regular, he’ll need to improve his swing decisions to raise the lower ceilings his swings currently offer. 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The Twins leaned into a strong crop of college hitters in the 2024 MLB Draft, selecting Kaelen Culpepper, Kyle DeBarge, and Billy Amick with their first three picks. How have they started off in their professional careers? Let's dig into their data from A-ball. Image courtesy of © Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images It’s hard to believe, but we’re already two months down the road from the 2024 MLB Draft. With the minor-league season in its final stretch, it’s time to take a look at how the Twins' top 2024 draftees are doing. Immediately after the draft, Sean Johnson intimated that the Twins were surprised by how many hitters held up on their draft board. Thankfully for us, the vast majority of them are at Fort Myers, where we have access to robust data on their first few weeks of professional baseball. For the purposes of this article, I’ve pulled some key metrics for each prospect to allow for some apples-to-apples comparison, and provided a little analysis for each to place their performance in context. It’s worth remembering that these are all still small sample sizes, so take them with a large grain of salt. Numbers were pulled prior to games on Sept. 3. NOTE: Kaelen Culpepper’s contact, in-zone whiff, chase, and exit velocity only take into account his time at Fort Myers. The rest of his numbers are cumulative across both levels he’s played at in 2024. Kaelen Culpepper, 1st Round, 21st Overall Selection Slash line: .241/.326/.405 (.731) 12.4 K%, 9 BB% 82.1% Contact% 0% InZoneWhiff% 33% Chase% 102.6 mph 90th percentile EV The first-round pick got off to as good a start as you could hope for, making short work of Low A in a nine-game sample. Of particular note were his 82% contact rate, and the fact that he didn’t swing and miss at a pitch in the strike zone once while at Fort Myers. Since moving to Cedar Rapids, Culpepper has slowed down, to the tune of just a .578 OPS in his first 12 games. He hit his first home run at High A on Aug. 31, though, so he might be starting to find his groove. Kyle DeBarge, Comp A, 33rd Overall Selection Slash line: .195/.311/.293 (.584) 25.6 K%, 13.3 BB% 79.1% Contact% 15.2% InZoneWhiff% 21.2% Chase% 102.7 mph 90th percentile EV 57.4% Ground% 1.8 LaunchAng For me, Kyle DeBarge will always be known as "the Sonny Gray pick". The 33rd overall selection was conferred upon the Twins as compensation, after Gray turned down the qualifying offer and signed with the Cardinals. The scouting reports on DeBarge coming out of college were of a hitter who controls the strike zone incredibly well, and had some of the best bat-to-ball skills of any college hitter in the class. DeBarge has posted some impressive numbers relating to his approach at Fort Myers. Through 20 games, he’s walking 13.3% of the time, sporting a contact rate around 80%, and a 15.2% InZoneWhiff%. DeBarge’s average and 90th percentile exit velocity are right around average for the level, too. So why has his raw production (.584) been so poor? DeBarge has run into a major ground-ball problem thus far as a pro. He’s running a 57% ground-ball rate, and an average launch angle of just 1.8 degrees. As soon as he’s able to generate more consistent loft, his production will quickly improve. Nothing to worry about here, yet. Billy Amick, Round 2, 60th Overall Pick Slash line: .222/.351/.413 (.763) 19.5 K%, 15.6 BB% 70.1% Contact% 18% InZoneWhiff% 25% Chase% 104 mph 90th percentile EV 55% Ground% Amick was a player connected with the Twins at 21st overall, which was a little rich for me. They were surely delighted he was still on the board at 60, though. The Twins don’t shy away from high chase rates when drafting (or trading for) hitters. Amick came with the added challenge of a slightly concerning contact rate in college. After a slow start, he turned it around in late August, getting on base plenty thanks to a 15.6 BB%. While the bat-to-ball skills and the chase rate are worth monitoring, Amick’s numbers have improved significantly in the last few weeks. Around 43% of Amick’s batted-balls have been hit 95 mph or harder, close to 10% above average for A ball. The easy power is certainly present. What are your thoughts on the Twins 2024 draft class thus far? Who has stood out to you? Research assistance provided by TruMedia Sports View full article

Connor Prielipp's early career was derailed by injuries. Now pitching at A+, he's showing nasty stuff and dominating hitters. We dig into some of the data from his return to action. View full video

Walker Jenkins 2024 season was slowed by a hamstring injury on opening day. Now at A+ Cedar Rapids, Jenkins is getting to more extra base impact. We dig into the numbers from his recent hot streak. View full video

Draft tandem Jeremy Nygaard and JD Cameron team up for a podcast to discuss prospects on their way to the big leagues and the MLB draft, produced by Theo Tollefson. Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo In episode 49 of Destination: The Show, Jeremy and Jamie bemoan the struggles of the Twins major league bullpen and ask if a new approach is needed to ensure success in 2025 and beyond. Next, they catch up on news and notes from around the MiLB system, including Luke Keaschall, Andrew Morris, and Emmanuel Rodriguez. The guys dig into some of the initial data on the Twins 2024 draftees, specifically bats. They talk through the first few weeks of professional baseball for Kaelen Culpepper, Kyle DeBarge, Billy Amick and others. Finally, they answer some listener questions on shortstop depth in the farm system and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. 0:00 Intro - Jamie went to Europe, Jeremy started school 5:45 - Twins Baseball! and how bad the relief pitchers are 20:28 - Twitter, Email, Reviews... how to support the show 21:30 - News and Notes (Keaschall, E Rod, Morris, Zebby, Festa, SWR) 34:00 - Kaelen Culpepper 42:29 - Kyle DeBarge and Khadim Diaw 47:00 - Billy Amick 51:10 - Other guys 52:00 - Listener Questions 56:11 - DaShawn Keirsey You can support the show by downloading it from wherever you get your podcasts, including iTunes and Spotify. If you enjoy the content, consider leaving us a five-star rating and review in addition to sharing or retweeting DTS-related content. You can follow us on Twitter @DTS_POD1, @Jeremynygaard, @J_D_Cameron, and @TheodoreTollef1. You can also find full episodes and clips of our shows on our YouTube page @DestinationTheShow. View full article

Kaelen Culpepper has only had one month in pro ball. He crushed his way through Low-A but has had some time to adjust to High-A Cedar Rapids. Is this slow start a concern or just a part of the growing pains a draft pick goes through only a month and a half after the draft? View full video

There's been a little-noticed but noteworthy silence, since the end of last season, about the contract statuses of the Minnesota Twins' top front-office executives. What should fans make of it? Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports The Twins are struggling. In the last week, they’ve lost three games in which their win probability was 85% or higher at some point. The team seems to be running into a confluence of challenges at the worst possible time. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton remain sidelined, with the trio of Correa, Buxton, and Royce Lewis having only played 17 games together all season. The back half of the rotation is comprised of three rookies. The bullpen looks thin and exposed, with Brock Stewart’s season-ending injury leaving the Twins short of high-leverage arms and Jhoan Durán proving, shockingly, to be human. Despite all that, the resilient Twins are still roughly 86% likely to make the playoffs, and 23% likely to win the AL Central, per FanGraphs. Impressive fortitude, indeed. Amid that state of affairs, especially given that they're coming off an AL Central championship and a very important playoff breakthrough, it's peculiar that we have no official news of an extension with either of their top baseball executives, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. It’s possible that the Twins have engaged Falvey and Levine in contract talks already. In May 2023, Ken Rosenthal reported that the organization ‘quietly’ extended Rocco Baldelli until at least the end of the 2025 season. Regardless of which Pohlad is running the show, the Twins organization has typically been one that prizes consistency and continuity, if we’re to judge by the tenures of previous managers and front office staff. Furthermore, as best Twins Daily has been able to discern in discussions with several sources around and within the team, Falvey is happy with his situation in Minnesota, and the Pohlads are happy with the way Falvey and Levine have done their jobs of late. Asked for an official comment, the Twins declined. "A few years back as a matter of policy, we decided not to comment on contract specifics during the season for any of our staff, including Rocco, the coaching staff, or our executive leadership," said a spokesperson. That jibes with the lack of an announcement from the team when Baldelli signed his aforementioned extension, and it leaves wide open the possibility that Falvey and Levine have already agreed to deals to stick around beyond 2024. By all indications, both executives would be welcomed back, and a significant change in leadership is unlikely. If that's how it plays out, we should regard it as very good news. Since 2019, the Twins have won the AL Central in three out of five seasons. They’re on track to make the playoffs for the fourth time in six seasons. In 2023, they broke a playoff drought of over 20 years by sweeping the Wild Card series against the Toronto Blue Jays, before eventually crashing out to the Houston Astros. All you can do is get there as close to every year as possible. The last five years on the field have been good for the Twins. In Falvey’s initial remarks on taking the job in Minnesota, he stated a desire to build a team that could win sustainably. For a mid-market team like the Twins, that means drafting and development. Things could hardly be going better in that arena. Entering the season, the Twins had three consensus top-100 prospects (Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez). Lee and Jenkins were high draft picks; they began their professional careers with the top prospect label. This season, the organization has added three more premium dudes: David Festa (13th round), Zebby Matthews (8th round), and Luke Keaschall (2nd round) all now appear on top-100 prospect lists. None of them were ranked entering 2024. This speaks to the systems and structures the Twins have built around player development. The organization knows what it does well, whether that’s improving swing decisions or adding velocity to a fastball. Increasingly, the developmental leaps taken by drafted prospects are becoming more pronounced. It’s not difficult to imagine a future in 2025 wherein the likes of Kaelen Culpepper or Charlee Soto enter top-100 consideration. At various points this season, the Twins have used four homegrown starting pitchers in their rotation (Ober, Varland, Festa, Matthews). I don’t think the front office is above criticism. There have been poor free-agent signings, trades that didn’t work out (Tyler Mahle, Jorge López), and underwhelming trade deadline returns (2023, 2024). That’s not exclusive to this front office, though, and to me, it’s clear that they have gotten more of the big decisions and tests right than wrong. Whether it’s the Pablo López trade, re-signing Carlos Correa, or extending Byron Buxton, the front office has usually nailed the big moments. Too often, organizational weaknesses are foisted on the front office. Whether it’s broadcast access or diminishing payroll, let’s not conflate the front office with ownership just because they are the mouthpiece of the organization. That brings us back around to the real question about retaining Falvey and Levine, which seems to be less about whether the Twins would want them than about whether they would want to stay. To reiterate, we have some reason to believe the answer to both questions is yes, but we must take note of the lack of an announcement of extensions for either last fall. That wouldn't have violated their convenient organizational policy, after all. It also would have forestalled a lot of potential speculation and uncertainty, including and especially for fans--who already must contend with a lack of clarity about the team's commitment to winning (in the form of spending on payroll) and about the future of access to the team via TV broadcasts. It does seem safe to assume that, as of the start of spring training, both Falvey and Levine were de facto impending free agents. Even if both, or just Falvey, have reupped since, the diminished transparency here--the twin extensions the two signed after 2019 were made public in short order--invites some unease that feels unnecessary, except as a means of preserving a policy they instituted both silently and voluntarily. On balance, it’s clear that the Twins should extend Falvey and Levine immediately--if not sooner, as is actually possible in this case. They’ve restored consistent competitiveness to the Twin Cities, and spearheaded the development of a top-five farm system in baseball. There’s a young, exciting core in place who, despite the miserliness of the ownership group, gives the team a chance to win sustainably for the next half-decade. A bit more clarity about the situation would probably do more good than harm, but while the team remains mum, it sounds like both sides are interested in keeping the Falvey Pipeline flowing for years to come. What is your assessment of the Twins front office pair of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine? Should they be extended? What stand out as the successes and challenges of their tenure in Minnesota? View full article

Brandon Winokur was labeled a raw hitter coming out of the 2023 draft, with plenty of power but some swing and miss in his profile. In August, he's begun to make strides in his approach at the plate, and it's increased his impact significantly. View full video