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Jamie Cameron

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Everything posted by Jamie Cameron

  1. The MLB draft is a vastly different experience from all of the other four major men's sports. Jeremy and Jamie break it down into simpler terms and share what fans of the MLB draft can expect to see on Day One of the Draft.
  2. The 2024 MLB Draft may still be three months away, but Jamie is the guy to ensure all Twins Daily, Brewer Fanatic, Northside Baseball, and Fish on First readers are up to date with the consensus board. See how this year's board is the best put together on Twins Daily and our sister sites, plus how frequently you can expect updates as the draft draws closer. View the draft board: https://twinsdaily.com/mlb-baseball-mock-draft-order-2024/
  3. The 2024 MLB Draft may still be three months away, but Jamie is the guy to ensure all Twins Daily, Brewer Fanatic, Northside Baseball, and Fish on First readers are up to date with the consensus board. See how this year's board is the best put together on Twins Daily and our sister sites, plus how frequently you can expect updates as the draft draws closer. View the draft board: https://twinsdaily.com/mlb-baseball-mock-draft-order-2024/ View full video
  4. In episode 31 of Destination: The Show, baseball is back! Jeremy and JD talk through the opening few games of the new MLB season and spend time ruing injuries. They touch on the complexity of the prospect promotion incentive draft picks and introduce the new Consensus MLB Draft Board. The guys then talk about Brewers and Twins MiLB rosters and discuss the players and teams they’re most excited to see in action this season. Finally, they walk through three risers on the latest version of the draft board in Kellon Lindsey, Billy Amick, and Luke Holman. 0:00 Intro - MLB Highlights, Injuries and PPI 15:07 Draft slots and bonus pools 16:19 Consensus Board 23:09 MiLB Rosters - Brewers and Twins 50:00 Draft Stuff 1:01:50 Listener Question You can support the show by downloading it from wherever you get your podcasts, including iTunes and Spotify. If you enjoy the content, consider leaving us a five-star rating and review in addition to sharing or retweeting DTS-related content. You can follow us on Twitter @DTS_POD1, @Jeremynygaard, @J_D_Cameron, and @TheodoreTollef1. You can also find full episodes and clips of our shows on our YouTube page @DestinationTheShow.
  5. Draft tandem Jeremy Nygaard and JD Cameron team up for a podcast to discuss prospects on their way to the big leagues and the MLB Draft, produced by Theo Tollefson. Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo In episode 31 of Destination: The Show, baseball is back! Jeremy and JD talk through the opening few games of the new MLB season and spend time ruing injuries. They touch on the complexity of the prospect promotion incentive draft picks and introduce the new Consensus MLB Draft Board. The guys then talk about Brewers and Twins MiLB rosters and discuss the players and teams they’re most excited to see in action this season. Finally, they walk through three risers on the latest version of the draft board in Kellon Lindsey, Billy Amick, and Luke Holman. 0:00 Intro - MLB Highlights, Injuries and PPI 15:07 Draft slots and bonus pools 16:19 Consensus Board 23:09 MiLB Rosters - Brewers and Twins 50:00 Draft Stuff 1:01:50 Listener Question You can support the show by downloading it from wherever you get your podcasts, including iTunes and Spotify. If you enjoy the content, consider leaving us a five-star rating and review in addition to sharing or retweeting DTS-related content. You can follow us on Twitter @DTS_POD1, @Jeremynygaard, @J_D_Cameron, and @TheodoreTollef1. You can also find full episodes and clips of our shows on our YouTube page @DestinationTheShow. View full article
  6. MLB today announced the 2024 MLB Draft and 2025 international signing period bonus pools. Read to find out where the Twins rank financially against other MLB organizations. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp Today, MLB released bonus pool allocations and pick values for the 2024 MLB Draft. Additionally, MLB released international signing bonus pools for the 2025 signing period. Despite making the divisional round of the playoffs and only picking 21st in the first round, the Twins find themselves in a favorable position for the 2024 draft. They have the 11th largest bonus pool overall, at $12,209,600. This is primarily a function of the compensation pick they landed for Sonny Gray signing with the Cardinals, which landed them an extra $2.75 million in draft capital. The Twins top 100 picks and slot values are as follows: Slot value for pick 21: $3,934,400 (Round 1) Slot value for pick 33: $2,766,100 (compensation for Sonny Gray rejecting QO) Slot value for pick 60: $1,453,700 (Round 2) Slot value for pick 69: $1,168,000 (Competitive Balance Round B) Slot value for pick 96: $759,700 (Round 3) This combination of financial and pick flexibility puts the Twins in a strong position ahead of a draft class shaping up to be much weaker than 2023, but with a strong and deep crop of college players. Reminders on Draft Financials Organizations are allowed to spend up to 5% more than their total pool without incurring a penalty, a choice many teams take advantage of. The Twins and the Rockies are the only MLB teams who have never spent any overage on their bonus pool. Any amount up to 5% over the pool is met with a 75% tax on the overage. If a team spends between 5-10% more than their pool, the penalty is 75% tax on the overage and loss of a future first rounder. Any team who exceeds their bonus pool by more than 10% up to 15% pays 100% tax on the overage and will lose a first and second round future pick. Any team who exceeds their bonus pool by more than 15% loses two future first round picks in addition to paying 100% tax on the overage. Rounds 11-20 work differently to the first half of the draft. These picks do not come with an assigned slot value. Teams can spend up to $150,000 per pick without that spending coming out of their bonus pool. If they spend over that amount, any overage will be deducted from their bonus pool. For example, an 11th round pick signing for $250,000 will result in $100,000 being subtracted from that teams’ bonus pool. MLB Announces 2025 International Bonus Pools MLB announced bonus pools for the 2025 international signing period today. The 2025 signing window opens on January 15th, 2025 and runs through December 15th, 2025. The Twins are in a group of eight teams (which also includes the Tigers) who have the joint largest bonus pools. The Twins can spend $7,555,500 in the 2025 international signing window. View full article
  7. Today, MLB released bonus pool allocations and pick values for the 2024 MLB Draft. Additionally, MLB released international signing bonus pools for the 2025 signing period. Despite making the divisional round of the playoffs and only picking 21st in the first round, the Twins find themselves in a favorable position for the 2024 draft. They have the 11th largest bonus pool overall, at $12,209,600. This is primarily a function of the compensation pick they landed for Sonny Gray signing with the Cardinals, which landed them an extra $2.75 million in draft capital. The Twins top 100 picks and slot values are as follows: Slot value for pick 21: $3,934,400 (Round 1) Slot value for pick 33: $2,766,100 (compensation for Sonny Gray rejecting QO) Slot value for pick 60: $1,453,700 (Round 2) Slot value for pick 69: $1,168,000 (Competitive Balance Round B) Slot value for pick 96: $759,700 (Round 3) This combination of financial and pick flexibility puts the Twins in a strong position ahead of a draft class shaping up to be much weaker than 2023, but with a strong and deep crop of college players. Reminders on Draft Financials Organizations are allowed to spend up to 5% more than their total pool without incurring a penalty, a choice many teams take advantage of. The Twins and the Rockies are the only MLB teams who have never spent any overage on their bonus pool. Any amount up to 5% over the pool is met with a 75% tax on the overage. If a team spends between 5-10% more than their pool, the penalty is 75% tax on the overage and loss of a future first rounder. Any team who exceeds their bonus pool by more than 10% up to 15% pays 100% tax on the overage and will lose a first and second round future pick. Any team who exceeds their bonus pool by more than 15% loses two future first round picks in addition to paying 100% tax on the overage. Rounds 11-20 work differently to the first half of the draft. These picks do not come with an assigned slot value. Teams can spend up to $150,000 per pick without that spending coming out of their bonus pool. If they spend over that amount, any overage will be deducted from their bonus pool. For example, an 11th round pick signing for $250,000 will result in $100,000 being subtracted from that teams’ bonus pool. MLB Announces 2025 International Bonus Pools MLB announced bonus pools for the 2025 international signing period today. The 2025 signing window opens on January 15th, 2025 and runs through December 15th, 2025. The Twins are in a group of eight teams (which also includes the Tigers) who have the joint largest bonus pools. The Twins can spend $7,555,500 in the 2025 international signing window.
  8. It's hard to compare everyone as we don't have a full body of work from anyone in this class, however, imo, no one in this years' class is cracking the top 5 last year. Crews and Langford are/were a cut above Bazzana and Condon. Might we feel differently in July? Possibly but I doubt it. Same goes for Skenes versus Burns and Smith. The two from this years' class have amazing stuff, but as a draft prospect, Skenes was above both imo. Let's revisit this in July, though.
  9. Thanks for this. I'll work on getting this cleaned up on an update, hopefully overnight. Appreciate the feedback
  10. Much better class of college catchers this year. I think last I counted I have 7 legit catcher profiles in the current top 100 (last year it was 3). I like Lomavita and Cozart both, and Walker Janek is another guy to look out for in the 50-75 range currently.
  11. Thanks for reading and commenting, as always, I appreciate it. So, I'd tweak your language slightly. This impact is light on impact talent, especially at the top, but I think the college position player demo is really solid, especially through about 60 picks. College pitching is trending towards being stronger than last season also (which is a low bar to clear). It's really too early to say on strategy. I think this FO has shown that they believe they can find arms with unique traits later in the draft and trust their development staff to go to work (Ober, Varland etc are good examples). If I were guessing today, I'd think college hitter first as that's the strength of the first round, There is ample time for things to change thought, and this initial top 50 is still a little noisy with folks updating their draft boards around now (I'd expect a pretty decent shake up in the next two weeks throughout the top 50 or so picks.).
  12. 21, 33, 60, 69, 96 in the top 100. There'll be a ton of content that covers the draft bonus pools, picks Twins have etc. down the road. Also, if you click into the board, Brock added the team logo in each slot where the Twins pick (you should see a little TC next to pick 21, for example).
  13. Welcome to the 2024 MLB Consensus Draft Board! What is the Consensus MLB Draft Board? This is the third draft cycle for which I’m co-authoring content, alongside @Jeremy Nygaard, who has probably forgotten more about the draft process than I’ll ever know. When I first started, I found I was craving a tool that cut through some of the noise and variance of different draft rankings and industry boards, so I decided to create a consensus board. Following Arif Hasan’s original NFL consensus board format, the premise is simple; the board combines all industry boards I can find into a composite ranking for each player. The final number of ‘input’ boards is impossible to know at this early date, but it will likely be in the 8-12 range by the time we get to July. The rationale is that there’s value in consensus, particularly to more casual fans of the MLB Draft. How is the Board Organized? It should be relatively easy to orient yourself to the board. For each player, you’ll find their current consensus ranking, position, name, age, height, weight, handedness, and school. Additionally, you’ll find a write-up of 150-200 words per player in the top 50, which I have been working on since February. One note regarding rankings on this board: Most industry boards make major updates on a monthly basis, typically toward the end of the month. As such, there’s some ‘lag time’ between other boards you read and those rankings being reflected in the consensus. Simply put, it takes a little time to process major updates, and they usually come in clusters. What’s Coming Next? One of the biggest advantages of having the board as a page, as opposed to a Google Sheet, is the possibility of real-time updates. Last year, I published three versions of the consensus board. This approach allows daily updates, if and when we want to publish them. Early in the draft cycle, you can expect an update every week or two. We’re also thinking through possibilities that would make the write-ups collapsible, and allow us to track movement of players up and down the board, as I did in previous cycles. For now, it’s a simply organized top 50, which you can expect us to expand upon more frequently than in 2023. When the board is final, I expect there will be 150-200 write-ups of players and a total of around 300 players listed. What You Can Do to Support This Project The publication of this board at Twins Daily, Brewer Fanatic, and North Side Baseball is the culmination of a ton of work, with the aim being to create a draft board that casual and hardcore MLB Draft fans can find useful. I’d like to share some public appreciation for Brock Beauchamp, who helps turn ideas into real-life projects at all three of these sites. This wouldn’t be possible without him. If you enjoy this resource, I’d appreciate it if you'd consider sharing it, retweeting it, and passing it along to others. In order to grow the board, add features, increase the time I can put into it, and so on, I need to show that folks find it useful. Anything anyone reading this can do to support that, I’ll be truly grateful for. There’s much more to come as the draft cycle really gets going. For now, I hope folks enjoy this first top 50. If you have feedback, thoughts, or comments, we’d love to hear them, to help us improve the board. View the Draft Board
  14. For the third consecutive draft cycle, I'm releasing the Consensus MLB Draft Board, combining rankings from as many public boards as we can find to help you navigate the 2024 MLB Draft. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp Welcome to the 2024 MLB Consensus Draft Board! What is the Consensus MLB Draft Board? This is the third draft cycle for which I’m co-authoring content, alongside @Jeremy Nygaard, who has probably forgotten more about the draft process than I’ll ever know. When I first started, I found I was craving a tool that cut through some of the noise and variance of different draft rankings and industry boards, so I decided to create a consensus board. Following Arif Hasan’s original NFL consensus board format, the premise is simple; the board combines all industry boards I can find into a composite ranking for each player. The final number of ‘input’ boards is impossible to know at this early date, but it will likely be in the 8-12 range by the time we get to July. The rationale is that there’s value in consensus, particularly to more casual fans of the MLB Draft. How is the Board Organized? It should be relatively easy to orient yourself to the board. For each player, you’ll find their current consensus ranking, position, name, age, height, weight, handedness, and school. Additionally, you’ll find a write-up of 150-200 words per player in the top 50, which I have been working on since February. One note regarding rankings on this board: Most industry boards make major updates on a monthly basis, typically toward the end of the month. As such, there’s some ‘lag time’ between other boards you read and those rankings being reflected in the consensus. Simply put, it takes a little time to process major updates, and they usually come in clusters. What’s Coming Next? One of the biggest advantages of having the board as a page, as opposed to a Google Sheet, is the possibility of real-time updates. Last year, I published three versions of the consensus board. This approach allows daily updates, if and when we want to publish them. Early in the draft cycle, you can expect an update every week or two. We’re also thinking through possibilities that would make the write-ups collapsible, and allow us to track movement of players up and down the board, as I did in previous cycles. For now, it’s a simply organized top 50, which you can expect us to expand upon more frequently than in 2023. When the board is final, I expect there will be 150-200 write-ups of players and a total of around 300 players listed. What You Can Do to Support This Project The publication of this board at Twins Daily, Brewer Fanatic, and North Side Baseball is the culmination of a ton of work, with the aim being to create a draft board that casual and hardcore MLB Draft fans can find useful. I’d like to share some public appreciation for Brock Beauchamp, who helps turn ideas into real-life projects at all three of these sites. This wouldn’t be possible without him. If you enjoy this resource, I’d appreciate it if you'd consider sharing it, retweeting it, and passing it along to others. In order to grow the board, add features, increase the time I can put into it, and so on, I need to show that folks find it useful. Anything anyone reading this can do to support that, I’ll be truly grateful for. There’s much more to come as the draft cycle really gets going. For now, I hope folks enjoy this first top 50. If you have feedback, thoughts, or comments, we’d love to hear them, to help us improve the board. View the Draft Board View full article
  15. The Twins prospects made their mark in the inaugural spring breakout game and J.D. and Jeremy break down the highlights and what they liked and didn't like from the future Minnesota Twins.
  16. The Twins prospects made their mark in the inaugural spring breakout game and J.D. and Jeremy break down the highlights and what they liked and didn't like from the future Minnesota Twins. View full video
  17. Draft tandem Jeremy Nygaard and JD Cameron team up for a podcast to discuss prospects on their way to the big leagues and the MLB draft, produced by Theo Tollefson. Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo In episode 29 of Destination: The Show, Jeremy and JD review the inaugural spring breakout games for the Twins and Brewers. The guys then complete a 16 pick mock MLB draft, alternating picks to help listeners get familiar with the top of the class before ending with listener questions. 0:00 Intro 3:30 Spring Breakout - Twins 14:20 Spring Breakout - Brewers 20:40 Mini-Mock Jamie and Jeremy take turns selecting players. Jamie goes first and they alternate for 16 picks. The only rules are each team must have a prep and college player and a hitter and a pitcher. Who's team do you like more? 1:01:49 Listener Question - Benn Hess versus Drew Beam You can support the show by downloading it from wherever you get your podcasts, including iTunes and Spotify. If you enjoy the content, consider leaving us a five-star rating and review in addition to sharing or retweeting DTS-related content. You can follow us on Twitter @DTS_POD1, @Jeremynygaard, @J_D_Cameron, and @TheodoreTollef1. You can also find full episodes and clips of our shows on our YouTube page @DestinationTheShow. View full article
  18. In episode 29 of Destination: The Show, Jeremy and JD review the inaugural spring breakout games for the Twins and Brewers. The guys then complete a 16 pick mock MLB draft, alternating picks to help listeners get familiar with the top of the class before ending with listener questions. 0:00 Intro 3:30 Spring Breakout - Twins 14:20 Spring Breakout - Brewers 20:40 Mini-Mock Jamie and Jeremy take turns selecting players. Jamie goes first and they alternate for 16 picks. The only rules are each team must have a prep and college player and a hitter and a pitcher. Who's team do you like more? 1:01:49 Listener Question - Benn Hess versus Drew Beam You can support the show by downloading it from wherever you get your podcasts, including iTunes and Spotify. If you enjoy the content, consider leaving us a five-star rating and review in addition to sharing or retweeting DTS-related content. You can follow us on Twitter @DTS_POD1, @Jeremynygaard, @J_D_Cameron, and @TheodoreTollef1. You can also find full episodes and clips of our shows on our YouTube page @DestinationTheShow.
  19. Brooks Lee dominated on the left-side of the plate at Triple-A but was well below the Mendoza line as a right-handed hitter. Will Lee's numbers outgrow the small sample size he had in St. Paul in 2024?
  20. Brooks Lee dominated on the left-side of the plate at Triple-A but was well below the Mendoza line as a right-handed hitter. Will Lee's numbers outgrow the small sample size he had in St. Paul in 2024? View full video
  21. On episode 27 of Destination: The Show, Jeremy and JD are joined by Theo Tollefson to talk Twins top prospects. The trio compare their top 20 prospect lists. Who is the low man on Charlee Soto? Will is Emmanuel Rodriguez' ceiling? Who is the most likely pitcher from the 2023 draft class to become a starting pitcher at the major league level? The fellas also get a chance to watch some footage of Jeremy displaying surprising speed and athleticism (at the expense of Twins Geek), before previewing what draft content and coverage will look like starting next week. 5:37 Drunken race chat on Gleeman and the Geek 12:00 Twins Top 20 13:31 Walker Jenkins 19:14 Brooks Lee 27:39 Emmanuel Rodriguez 33:07 Prospects 4-6 38:13 Prospects 7-10 49:50 Prospect 11: Culpepper vs someone else 53:28 Prospects 12-13 56:27 Prospects 14-16 58:58 Prospect 17 1:03:15 Prospects 18 1:09:52 Prospects 19-20 1:10:30 Under the Radar Prospect You can support the show by downloading it from wherever you get your podcasts, including iTunes and Spotify. If you enjoy the content, consider leaving us a five-star rating and review in addition to sharing or retweeting DTS-related content. You can follow us on Twitter @DTS_POD1, @Jeremynygaard, @J_D_Cameron, and @TheodoreTollef1. You can also find full episodes and clips of our shows on our YouTube page @DestinationTheShow.
  22. Draft tandem Jeremy Nygaard and JD Cameron team up for a podcast to discuss prospects on their way to the big leagues and the MLB draft, produced by Theo Tollefson. Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo On episode 27 of Destination: The Show, Jeremy and JD are joined by Theo Tollefson to talk Twins top prospects. The trio compare their top 20 prospect lists. Who is the low man on Charlee Soto? Will is Emmanuel Rodriguez' ceiling? Who is the most likely pitcher from the 2023 draft class to become a starting pitcher at the major league level? The fellas also get a chance to watch some footage of Jeremy displaying surprising speed and athleticism (at the expense of Twins Geek), before previewing what draft content and coverage will look like starting next week. 5:37 Drunken race chat on Gleeman and the Geek 12:00 Twins Top 20 13:31 Walker Jenkins 19:14 Brooks Lee 27:39 Emmanuel Rodriguez 33:07 Prospects 4-6 38:13 Prospects 7-10 49:50 Prospect 11: Culpepper vs someone else 53:28 Prospects 12-13 56:27 Prospects 14-16 58:58 Prospect 17 1:03:15 Prospects 18 1:09:52 Prospects 19-20 1:10:30 Under the Radar Prospect You can support the show by downloading it from wherever you get your podcasts, including iTunes and Spotify. If you enjoy the content, consider leaving us a five-star rating and review in addition to sharing or retweeting DTS-related content. You can follow us on Twitter @DTS_POD1, @Jeremynygaard, @J_D_Cameron, and @TheodoreTollef1. You can also find full episodes and clips of our shows on our YouTube page @DestinationTheShow. View full article
  23. Brooks Lee has faithfully traversed the path the Twins laid out before him when he was selected eighth overall in the 2022 MLB Draft. His ready-made professional skill set (with few unique strengths and few real weaknesses) has guided him to the doorstep of the majors in two short professional seasons. To assess what an impactful 2024 Brooks Lee looks like, digging into his minor-league numbers, his scouting report, and skill set is a great jumping-off point. Lee is a switch-hitting shortstop whose swing looks more polished from the left side of the plate (more on this later). In a roughly 40-game sample at Triple A in 2023, Lee demonstrated many of the strengths that made him such a highly regarded prospect in his class. He managed a 76.3% contact rate (3.1% above league average), a 90.6 mph average exit velocity (3.2 mph above league average), and hit the ball at or above 95 mph 48% of the time (league average 36.2%). That’s a promising platform of bat-to-ball skills and quality of contact. There are some critical and inextricably linked questions that need answering when prognosticating Lee’s 2024 impact. Where is his playing time going to come from? What position will he play defensively? The answers will govern the magnitude of the value he can produce. Let’s start with playing time. There are two variables that will impact Lee’s 2024 playing time; injuries on the MLB roster, and his performance at Triple A. Lee had an uneven start to his time at St. Paul, but he had enough playing time at the level to see better stuff, get a clear understanding of adjustments that need to be made before working on them in the offseason. In a recent radio interview for MLB Network Radio, Thad Levine stated that ‘when he (Lee) tells us he’s ready to go, we’re going to get him up to the big leagues’. One possibility is Lee is crushing it at one end of the Green Line and forcing his way to the other. Another, more likely possibility is that Lee is given his first shot at the big leagues because of an injury. The 2023 Twins were infinitely more lucky than the 2022 team health-wise. Lee could follow the path of Edouard Julien and get short stints throughout the first half of the season, allowing for an adjustment period until his performance dictates he is in Minneapolis to stay. Defensively, it’s unlikely Lee plays shortstop for the Twins, barring an even more serious injury to Carlos Correa than the one that spoiled his 2023 campaign. Even then, Royce Lewis may slide over from third base. 'Yeah all over...he's gonna play short and second or third', relayed Twins manager Rocco Baldelli to reporters of Lee's defensive position this spring. While Lee has good instincts and defensive actions at the position, second or third base seem the likely fit. With the Twins seemingly keen on giving Lee a run at some defensive consistency, playing the majority of his defensive innings at second base (either via a Julien injury or a transition to first base for the Quebecois) seems the most likely. The good news is that Lee has the defensive profile (actions, quickness, arm) to be an upgrade at the position--at worst, above average. So what does Lee need to accomplish offensively to be deemed ‘ready’? Lee struck out at a 16.7% clip in Triple A (level average 22.4%), which is great, but he walked just 8.9% of the time (level average 12%; the automated strike zone was tiny). These rates help us arrive at our first area that needs polishing for Lee: his chase rate. Lee expanded the zone too much, chasing at a 34.7% rate (level average 27.1%). Despite Lee’s strong exit velocity and hard-hit numbers, he underperformed his expected rate stats at Triple A (.428 SLG, .468 xSLG). Lee will have to limit the amount he chases, particularly north and south in the strike zone, to prevent better pitchers from getting him into leveraged counts too easily. It’s also worth digging into Lee’s splits batting left versus right handed, with the caveat that his sample as a right-handed hitter at Triple A is too small to draw meaningful conclusions. EV Hit95+% Contact% Chase% xAVG xSLG as LHH 91.3 mph 52.9% 78.2% 33.8% .310 .531 as RHH 87.4 mph 26.1% 68.7% 38.2% .178 .203 Whew! Parsing Lee’s split down further to how he performed versus fastballs against left-handed and right-handed pitching is similarly illuminating. Lee received a steady diet of fastballs outside the strike zone as a right-handed hitter, which he went after, and often missed. He chased fastballs from right-handed pitchers at a 55% clip. This is where a high chase rate and good bat-to-ball skills coinciding can be dangerous. Lee chased and made poor quality contact against left-handers all too often in 2023. Improved selectivity as a right-handed hitter is an important developmental next step in 2024. The 95th-percentile impact for Lee in 2024 is a regular MLB starter who competes for AL Rookie of the Year. That outcome would reverberate beyond the Twins 2024 season, as he’d net the Twins a PPI draft pick right after the first round in 2025. While that outcome may seem unlikely, you could say the same about a thousand other player development stories. I think it’s fair to say that his progress through the minors has been slightly overlooked due to his perception as a ‘high-floor’ prospect, while his potential impact is overlooked due to a perceived lack of ceiling. Don’t overlook the value Brooks Lee can bring to the 2024 Twins; it’s significant.
  24. Brooks Lee is knocking on the door of the majors. What does a version of the 2024 season in which he makes a difference for a contending Twins team look like? Where is his defensive home? What's needed to round out his offensive profile? Let's dig in. Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports Brooks Lee has faithfully traversed the path the Twins laid out before him when he was selected eighth overall in the 2022 MLB Draft. His ready-made professional skill set (with few unique strengths and few real weaknesses) has guided him to the doorstep of the majors in two short professional seasons. To assess what an impactful 2024 Brooks Lee looks like, digging into his minor-league numbers, his scouting report, and skill set is a great jumping-off point. Lee is a switch-hitting shortstop whose swing looks more polished from the left side of the plate (more on this later). In a roughly 40-game sample at Triple A in 2023, Lee demonstrated many of the strengths that made him such a highly regarded prospect in his class. He managed a 76.3% contact rate (3.1% above league average), a 90.6 mph average exit velocity (3.2 mph above league average), and hit the ball at or above 95 mph 48% of the time (league average 36.2%). That’s a promising platform of bat-to-ball skills and quality of contact. There are some critical and inextricably linked questions that need answering when prognosticating Lee’s 2024 impact. Where is his playing time going to come from? What position will he play defensively? The answers will govern the magnitude of the value he can produce. Let’s start with playing time. There are two variables that will impact Lee’s 2024 playing time; injuries on the MLB roster, and his performance at Triple A. Lee had an uneven start to his time at St. Paul, but he had enough playing time at the level to see better stuff, get a clear understanding of adjustments that need to be made before working on them in the offseason. In a recent radio interview for MLB Network Radio, Thad Levine stated that ‘when he (Lee) tells us he’s ready to go, we’re going to get him up to the big leagues’. One possibility is Lee is crushing it at one end of the Green Line and forcing his way to the other. Another, more likely possibility is that Lee is given his first shot at the big leagues because of an injury. The 2023 Twins were infinitely more lucky than the 2022 team health-wise. Lee could follow the path of Edouard Julien and get short stints throughout the first half of the season, allowing for an adjustment period until his performance dictates he is in Minneapolis to stay. Defensively, it’s unlikely Lee plays shortstop for the Twins, barring an even more serious injury to Carlos Correa than the one that spoiled his 2023 campaign. Even then, Royce Lewis may slide over from third base. 'Yeah all over...he's gonna play short and second or third', relayed Twins manager Rocco Baldelli to reporters of Lee's defensive position this spring. While Lee has good instincts and defensive actions at the position, second or third base seem the likely fit. With the Twins seemingly keen on giving Lee a run at some defensive consistency, playing the majority of his defensive innings at second base (either via a Julien injury or a transition to first base for the Quebecois) seems the most likely. The good news is that Lee has the defensive profile (actions, quickness, arm) to be an upgrade at the position--at worst, above average. So what does Lee need to accomplish offensively to be deemed ‘ready’? Lee struck out at a 16.7% clip in Triple A (level average 22.4%), which is great, but he walked just 8.9% of the time (level average 12%; the automated strike zone was tiny). These rates help us arrive at our first area that needs polishing for Lee: his chase rate. Lee expanded the zone too much, chasing at a 34.7% rate (level average 27.1%). Despite Lee’s strong exit velocity and hard-hit numbers, he underperformed his expected rate stats at Triple A (.428 SLG, .468 xSLG). Lee will have to limit the amount he chases, particularly north and south in the strike zone, to prevent better pitchers from getting him into leveraged counts too easily. It’s also worth digging into Lee’s splits batting left versus right handed, with the caveat that his sample as a right-handed hitter at Triple A is too small to draw meaningful conclusions. EV Hit95+% Contact% Chase% xAVG xSLG as LHH 91.3 mph 52.9% 78.2% 33.8% .310 .531 as RHH 87.4 mph 26.1% 68.7% 38.2% .178 .203 Whew! Parsing Lee’s split down further to how he performed versus fastballs against left-handed and right-handed pitching is similarly illuminating. Lee received a steady diet of fastballs outside the strike zone as a right-handed hitter, which he went after, and often missed. He chased fastballs from right-handed pitchers at a 55% clip. This is where a high chase rate and good bat-to-ball skills coinciding can be dangerous. Lee chased and made poor quality contact against left-handers all too often in 2023. Improved selectivity as a right-handed hitter is an important developmental next step in 2024. The 95th-percentile impact for Lee in 2024 is a regular MLB starter who competes for AL Rookie of the Year. That outcome would reverberate beyond the Twins 2024 season, as he’d net the Twins a PPI draft pick right after the first round in 2025. While that outcome may seem unlikely, you could say the same about a thousand other player development stories. I think it’s fair to say that his progress through the minors has been slightly overlooked due to his perception as a ‘high-floor’ prospect, while his potential impact is overlooked due to a perceived lack of ceiling. Don’t overlook the value Brooks Lee can bring to the 2024 Twins; it’s significant. View full article
  25. The Twins drafted collegiate right-handed pitcher Tanner Hall in the 4th round in 2023. Hall was ranked as the 98th overall prospect in the draft class, on our Consensus Draft Board. What can Twins fans expect from him in 2024? Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo The Twins leaned into one of the strengths of the 2023 class with their first crop of picks, taking prep players Walker Jenkins, Charlee Soto, and Brandon Winokur with three of their first four selections. With their fourth round selection, they continued the Southern Miss-to-Minneapolis pipeline by selecting an incredibly productive college pitcher. Tanner Hall signed for $510,000, $76,000 under slot. Minnesota has grown a reputation for successfully developing mid- to late-round college arms in recent seasons, through a combination of adding velocity, tweaking pitch mixes, and other small but important upgrades. Hall bucks the trend slightly, as he was an incredibly successful pitcher in college, such that he was a consensus All-American who also happened to win a Gold Glove at his position. A converted reliever, Hall pitched 112 innings in 2023, managing a 2.48 ERA, striking out 124 and walking just 33. A 27% strikeout rate combined with a 7.3% walk rate. He was 10th among all Div. I pitchers in strikeouts. Yet, the Twins will probably feel there is ample fruit left on the tree, so to speak. Why? Let’s dig into what Hall offers on the mound. Hall’s primary offerings in college were a fastball (88-91 mph) with a ton of sink and a devastating changeup (low 80s), one of the best in the entire draft class, with a ton of tumbling action. Hall also throws a sweeping slider (low 80s) which he leaned on less in college. That pitch has plenty of promise when it’s on, but can definitely use refinement if he’s going to stick as a starter. Despite not being a prototypical starter’s build (6-foot-1, 190 pounds), Hall has an efficient, repeatable delivery with a loose, quick arm from a three-quarter slot. It’s efficient and repeatable. The consistency of Hall’s performance in 2022 and 2023 at one of the more consistent programs in the country speaks for itself. Like many of the Twins pitchers drafted in 2023, Hall didn’t make his debut right away, instead spending time at instructs with other pitching prospects. Like Soto, Dylan Questad, and others, 2024 will be our first extended look at what the Twins have been able to accomplish with an initial developmental focus. There will be plenty to monitor in 2024. Can the Twins add a little velocity to take his fastball from the 89-91 mph range to the 92-94 mph range? I’d bet on the affirmative. I’d also imagine the shape and consistency of Hall’s sweeper will be another area of focus right off the bat. Hall has a great developmental platform with such pinpoint command and control. I’d expect him to find some early success in the lower levels of the minors. This entire crop of new Twins pitching prospects ought to be fun to follow in 2024. What are your thoughts on Tanner Hall? Which Twins draftees are you most excited to follow in 2024? View full article
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