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dbminn

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Everything posted by dbminn

  1. dbminn
    Great points. I've been very happy with Neil Allen's emphasis on having a change-up or a wipeout pitch. I hope this can be done without significantly increasing walks. Gibson's K rate went up significantly towards the end of the year. Unfortunately, he didn't command his pitches as well as early in the season. Duffey's curve is an obvious strikeout pitch but I think he's going to have to improve his changeup to continue to have success. Velo is great but a starter still needs complementary stuff to be a complete pitcher.
  2. dbminn
    Thankfully, I've never seen Terry Ryan "thump his chest".
  3. dbminn
    I guess instead of "correcting" reality at every possible point, I looked at which teams were successful (RA9-WAR). http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,4,5,11,7,8,13,-1,36,37,40,43,44,48,51,-1,6,45,62,-1,59,212,76&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d I especially have a problem with people's use of FIP to determine the "best" pitcher. Of course FIP is correlated to K. That is what Fangraphs deems important. But FIP is not a complete measure of performance. It is basically a predictive value that gives very little consideration to control pitchers. Strikeouts, walks and HR. That is not the entire game. Maybe we should have a sequencing "myth" page too. A chunk of baseball is always going to be random variability - that's what makes it fun. But elite command pitchers can control more than K/BB/HR, and they can lead the league. Greinke didn't top the league in FIP, but I'd take his RA-9 WAR. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-three-keys-to-zack-greinkes-scoreless-streak/ A power pitcher that Ks a lot but doesn't have a ton of command may groove fastballs once behind in the count. A good hitter will get a lot more base hits in that case. (See Corey Kluber this year) "But his FIP was so solid!"
  4. dbminn
    As for teams in the playoffs... The Astros, Cubs, Blue Jays and Rangers all rank between 24th and 30th in starters' fastball velocity. The Royals starters throw hard, but their fWAR and RA9-WAR (what really happened) was lower than the Twins starters. Here are the top K/9 for starters in MLB: Indians, Cubs, Nationals, Padres, Rays, White Sox. K/9 and velocity are not the most important factors for a rotation. Same holds true for bullpens (BB/9 seems to be a better indicator). That said, it's great to have an elite starter who has everything working: velo, stuff and command. But you don't need all three to be at the top of the leaderboard. Greinke, Kuechel, King Felix, Hamels, Cueto... there are a lot of front-line pitchers who aren't throwing 94+
  5. dbminn
    Trade Mauer to Houston, along with $20-24 million. Get back a young prospect or two. Why would Houston and Mauer want to make this trade? The Astros don't consistently get on base and can't manufacture runs. When they hit less than two home runs, they lose.Minute Maid Park is a lot more Mauer-friendly than Target Field. Left field fence is 20 feet closer and the Astros plan to move it in even further this offseason. Fly balls become doubles.Mauer could bat second, between Altuve and Correa, with Springer in the cleanup spot.Mauer would replace Carter at 1st base, a maximum no-hit, home run only player.Yes, it seems an unlikely trade but it makes more sense than turning Joe into a "super utility" player.
  6. dbminn
    The Astros are not a fair comparison to the Twins. Their young starters have 2-3 years experience, except for Correa and McCullers. McHugh and Kuechel are entering their late 20s. The Cubs are a year ahead of the Twins. They added two key components in the last year - Lester and Russell. Schwarber developed as a hitter. They have outpaced all of the experts' expectations and have had an incredible year, improving by 24 wins. The Twins added three positional rookies this year and two played well. Two rookie pitchers (Duffey and May) showed promise. Torii Hunter served his purpose. Santana missed 80 games and Hughes pitched with back problems most of the year. The team won 13 more games, or better than most expected. For 2016, the Twins have several prospects that could help: Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios and perhaps one of the young relievers. A full year of Santana and, hopefully, a healthier Hughes. I'm looking forward to the coming season and not shedding any tears that the Twins only improved by 13 games.
  7. dbminn
    Nunez should and will be offered a contract. Solid across the board with limited duty. That type of player is valuable to a team that's looking to make the playoffs, especially at $1.5 million. I expect all of the other arb-eligible players to be offered a contract as well. Robinson is cheap and can be traded at the end of spring training if all of the Twins OF are healthy and major-league ready. I would let all of the FA walk, although I could see the Twins signing Cotts or Boyer. I agree that there are several players who could be DFA'd, including a couple of catchers and several pitchers. I would like to see Darnell stay on the roster but won't lose any sleep over the final decision.
  8. dbminn
    After watching Gibson the past two years, I think he has trouble keeping his pitches down in the zone when he's in the stretch. Could be mechanics as much as nerves. He's a 3 WAR pitcher under team control with some upside left in him. Not too shabby.
  9. dbminn
    Cowboy Joe West as an umpire.
  10. dbminn
    There has been no meltdown or implosion with Perkins. He was guilty of pitching through back/neck injuries for six weeks. I trust both Perkins and Jepsen. Still, they're human, so they might blow a save sometime between now and the end of the season. Oh - when Perkins is healthy, he's elite.
  11. dbminn
    Plenty of closers have been rock solid into their mid-30s.
  12. dbminn
    Let Santana pitch on his regular rotation days. He would be the first "all hands on deck" reliever in Game 162 - if it matters. That would be his bullpen day anyway.
  13. dbminn
    I too am concerned about his lack of BB. I think he will get closer to 6% as he gains experience. He has plenty of bat speed and quickness, just needs to let the pitcher come to him. Rosario has made it through the first adjustment period. He did not have a good August. Now he's back better than before. His slash line is up in September, even with a near league average BABIP, and his strikeout rate is down. A good sign for the future. Of course, nothing is guaranteed. RE Marijuana: I've heard that MLB doesn't emphasize THC testing, even though it is listed in the drug policy as a "substance of abuse". Anyone know the particulars?
  14. dbminn
    His intro is full of what are called "glittering generalities". Plenty of rhetorical pomp as well. Can't tell the basis for his argument without a subscription. Please give us a general review of the rest of the article.
  15. dbminn
    Try it at the number of sets, reps and intervals in the article and report back.
  16. dbminn
    Nice to see the Lookouts playing so well after a tough second half of the season. They lost Sano, Buxton and Berrios but have come together in the playoffs. It looked like everyone pitched around Kepler the last few weeks of the regular season. He probably won't see many good pitches the rest of this series if the opponents are smart.
  17. dbminn
    As others have said, Hughes and Nolasco were signed because the Twins needed veteran pitchers. No ace was going to sign with the Twins in 2014. The deal for Hughes was very reasonable. The Twins had to overpay for Nolasco and the deal hasn't worked out due mainly to injury. The curse of Carl Pavano, I guess. I was against signing Santana. The Twins needed slots for prospects this year and to get an ace in 2016 or 2017. That being said, I also didn't think the Twins would compete this year. To those that have wanted "all in this year", Santana could prove to be the key to winning the wild card... at the expense of future years.
  18. dbminn
    Garza spits a lot more than May.
  19. dbminn
    On the upside, the three young Twins outfielders have potential to dominate the game as a group. They could easily combine for 60HR / 60SB per year while playing well above average defense. Not many outfields have that kind of production. In reality, they may not all develop like we hope. Kepler adds depth to the OF for the future. I really don't want the Twins to trade any of the four this offseason. If they make a deal that includes an OF, I would trade Rosario. I prefer Kepler's K/BB ratio. You don't have to lead the league in offense if the other parts of the game are very good. According to FanGraphs, the Pirates, Cardinals and the Cubs(!) - are ranked high in pitching and defense and are middle of the pack offensively. The Royals are the only team ranked high in every category. Granted, the Astros, Blue Jays and Yankees are slugging. But you don't have to hit home runs: the Pirates, Cardinals and Royals are all ranked 20th or lower. This year's Twins are ranked 17th in HR.
  20. dbminn
    Thought they might pick Levi Michael. I don't watch many MiLB games, so I'm going by stats only. He seems to have finally stayed free of injuries long enough to start hitting. He's only had 230 PAs this year and could use some more. Any comments on Michael from those who have seen him play this year?
  21. dbminn
    Ryan made four obvious and intelligent selections for the first round of call-ups. All have some MLB experience and all have been playing well at AAA. The three hitters add to other bench players who have had solid years: Robinson and Nunez. Robinson is an very good defender (7.3 UZR/150) and baserunner. Nunez has been a league average hitter (101 WRC+) while getting only 170 PA across the entire season. I would love to see Berrios and I think he could add to the team. I hope Kepler gets called up at the end of the MiLB season, just to get an idea about what could be in front of him. In any case, the Twins are playing decent baseball and the four additions are good bets to help the team in the next month.
  22. dbminn
    Great discussion of stats and comps, especially by Brock. Next year: I'd be very happy with .260/.345/.500 - and as others have said, could be less. Isolated Power: I think his ISO will continue to freakishly good because he's freakishly powerful. He has already hit home runs off the trademark and the end of the bat. Same with some of his line drive base hits. His ISO hasn't been below .263 since 2010. His BABIP will come down a lot. The key will be his K rate. Frank Thomas? We can only hope...
  23. dbminn
    Nice summary. I expect Robinson will be back in 2016, at least in spring training. Relatively high value for his salary. The Twins will want to make sure that all of their young outfielders are healthy and mentally prepared for the season before Robinson is moved. The FO may want to see Kepler at AAA for the first month to make sure he get's off to a good start before making the show. Arcia will stay on the 40-man roster. Spring training will be huge for him. It's possible he could be included in a multiple player trade in the offseason. Such high potential - it's a shame he can't improve his approach at the plate (or in the field).
  24. dbminn
    Please reread my initial post. "The Kaiser" is what Kaiser Wilhelm was known by in the U.S. Of course I know that Kaiser means Caesar. And of course, "Fuhrer" means leader... http://i.ebayimg.com/00/s/NzUzWDUwMA==/z/-0cAAOxyA4ZRUgiK/$T2eC16VHJHYE9nzpeCjkBRUgiJsCG!~~60_35.JPG
  25. dbminn
    Great article. Please don't call him "Kaiser". I don't want to use a politically correct card, but in this case, it's warranted. Kaiser Wilhelm was known as "the Kaiser" in the US. He was war mongering, anti-Semitic and incompetent. A big reason WWI happened. The Kaiser also had a lame left arm from birth (seriously). Shane makes a good argument why Berrios should be available for the MLB playoffs. Kepler can be a September call-up after the AA playoffs. Also - what is the MLB rule regarding additions to the playoff roster if someone is placed on the DL?
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