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Everything posted by dbminn
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A great day for the Twins' top pitching prospects. Hopefully, Berrios is up by the end of July. What is the expected innings limit for Jay this year?
- 8 replies
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- kohl stewart
- jose berrios
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Good for Rosario. Worked hard and is now rewarded. I think they will rotate all four OF, with Grossman getting ABs against LHP. He's still the team's top hitter (by FanGraphs WRC+), 26 years old and has a .400 OBP. He's earned his ups, especially from the right side of the plate.
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In the words of Captain Obvious, the 2016 edition of the Minnesota Twins have been awful. Thousands of words have been dedicated to the top reasons for their demise: An incompetent front office. From a lack of off-season trades to poor roster management, the FO has failed to commit to either "win now" or "bring up the kids". (TD members have provided a thousand other examples of FO foibles that don't need to be mentioned here) The prospects and second-year players have yet to develop into solid major leaguers. Rosario, Buxton, Duffey, Murphy and, I would argue, even Sano have had a bumpy ride this year. Okay performance, at best, by the team's veterans. Nunez has been a pleasant surprise and Dozier has recently turned red hot. But Plouffe and Mauer haven't set the world on fire and Jepsen has been a total disaster. A terrible bullpen. By whatever measure, the relievers have melted down.These flaws have conspired to bring the Twins from a winning record in 2015 to the bottom of the barrel in 2016. But there is a fifth element that, IMO, has been overlooked: the sheer magnitude of time lost to injuries. Starting Pitching The Twins entered spring training with hopes that the starters would be league average, with veterans at the top of the rotation, Duffey in support and Berrios soon to arrive. Instead, Duffey started in the minors and has struggled with the Twins. Berrios has had only four starts. And, of course, Nolasco is now a reignited dumpster fire. Still, injuries have played an important role: Phil Hughes was put on the disabled list on June 10th and will be lost for the season. I argue he pitched injured from April until he was placed on the DL.Ervin Santana was on the DL from April 20th to May 6th.Kyle Gibson was on the DL from April 23rd to June 10th. He has been ineffective both before and after the DL, at least until his most recent start.The three veteran starters have spent about 180 days either on the DL or pitching injured. Most teams would suffer from losing the top of their rotation for any length of time. For the Twins, it has been a disaster. Relief Pitching Again, Jepsen has been awful. He was expected to pitch either the 7th and 8th inning. May was slated to be the second RP and Perkins was to close the game. Unfortunately, Perkins will miss almost the entire year and May has been on the DL since June 10th. Two-thirds of the back end of the bullpen has missed time in 2016 due to injury. Not inconsequential. Position Players The impact of injuries to position players is not as drastic. Still, Plouffe and Escobar were each lost for 15 days and Sano spent a month on the DL. (Santana and Mastroianni have also visited the list) In 2015, the Twins had the fourth lowest amount of time lost to the DL (about 500 days). One could argue that the only impactful injury was the loss of Perkins during the second half. In 2016, my rough math shows that the Twins have already lost about 350 days from front-line players. Injuries are not the main reason the 2016 Twins are awful, but IMO they have had a serious impact. Looking forward, we can only hope that the pitching stays healthy. A better rotation will move the team to mediocre from unbearable and provide a more positive situation as the youngsters develop.
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Depends what you mean by "electrifying". Kershaw is the best pitcher. He brings great stuff almost every time he takes the mound. But IMHO, Scherzer has the most electrifying array of pitches, combining deception, movement and velo. Arrieta is my favorite, with command, control and power.
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Eddie Rosario has found his inner Joe Mauer - 4 BB in 5 games! Seriously, looks like he's putting in his work.
- 17 replies
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- kennys vargas
- felix jorge
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Eddie Rosario Is Raking In Rochester
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You forgot one thing - they did a lousy job of selecting/signing players the last 10 years, at least until they moved to the top of the draft order (and Smith signed some decent international players). I think that's been even a bigger problem. There are more than enough reasons to complain about the Twins. I just don't think the development of the position prospects has been unusual given their age, injuries and experience. It just hurts more when the team has been awful. -
Eddie Rosario Is Raking In Rochester
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I looked at current age on FanGraphs and how many relatively young players are on the leaderboard. Didn't want to get into how many players per year make it, just the most recent ones. Checked those who are peers or just ahead of the current crop of Twins. I should've used the word "recent" in my original comment. The argument still holds - most players need a significant number of PA at AA or above (including MLB) to get to their potential. Nearly all of the time, that means they're at least 24. Stanton is showing he still has growing pains. He hasn't hit a lick: .194/.303/.418. Probably has some residual fear from his terrible injury. -
Eddie Rosario Is Raking In Rochester
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Please reread the post - I said "position players". The thread is about Rosario and if he should be starting with the Twins. And yes, Bryant should be included. Now we're at 5 in 400. Doesn't change much. Franco is playing well in Philly but he had about 1000 AA/AAA PA too. Cherry picking? Provide some real support for your argument. Buxton missed a year of playing time and is 22 years old. He will develop to be at least a very good and probably an excellent ballplayer. He just needs some more experience. -
Eddie Rosario Is Raking In Rochester
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It is very rare that players hit well before 24 years old. Machado and Bogaerts stuck because of their gloves. It took them at least 1000 PA at high minors and MLB to start hitting. Harper, Trout and now Lindor and Betts are the exceptions. That's four out of out of 400 MLB position players. Kepler, Sano and Buxton have all missed more than a year of MiLB experience due to injuries. Sano has been fine, Buxton is taking the route of Machado and Bogaerts and Kepler needs time. Nothing unusual. -
Eddie Rosario Is Raking In Rochester
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Grossman has earned his starting role. He's 26 years old, has had more than 1500 PA at AAA and a .379 OBP throughout the minor league career. This year, he's successfully worked on increasing his power at both AAA and the majors. He should start unless he goes cold for a month. Buxton was sent back to the minors to work on his timing and aggressiveness. He showed progress and was recalled to the Twins. His OPS has been a tick over .700 since his return. He's made enough progress to keep his spot, at least for the next month. Kepler has shown flickers of what could be a bright future. He still looks outmanned at the plate and will be sent down to make room for Sano, at least until Plouffe is (hopefully) traded. I'm sure he'll be given specific tasks to work on at Rochester. He's 23 and has had less than 150 AAA PA. Rosario is 23 years old and has a ton of talent. He was sent back to AAA because MLB pitchers now realize he has no concept of the strike zone. Doesn't really matter what he hits at Rochester - he won't hit in the majors until he learns to lay off bad pitches. Give him time at AAA to figure it out. He's young and has a chance to be a big part of the future. Out of the four OF, Grossman is the only one with experience. The other three are more gifted but none are fully developed. It's going to take time and work but I'm confident all three will be fine major leaguers. For now, they are still prospects. -
How Aggressive Should The Twins Be About Trading Eduardo Nunez
dbminn replied to dwade's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Nunez has value - he's a professional hitter who plays multiple positions. As a part-time player for most of his time with the Twins, his stats are: 626 PA .287/.315/.447 29 SB/40 ATT 2.7 WAR For 2015-2016: 413 PA .307/.339/.482 13 HR 20 SB/28 ATT 2.6 WAR (or 3.8 WAR/600 PA) Nunez turns 29 next week, and he's playing for $1.5 million. I'd look to trade him near the deadline but I wouldn't give him away. I expect a contender with IF injury issues will be interested enough to send the Twins a low top-100 prospect or a very good minor league reliever. As a fan, I wouldn't sell his talent short - he's been getting better since he arrived. (Note: His BABIP is inflated this year but was well below what should be expected from a fast runner in 2014. Of course, maybe he's just made better contact the last two years) -
Klaus Kinski for GM
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Are The 2016 Twins A Young Team?
dbminn replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
By position player performance, the Twins are still a veteran team. Here are the slash lines by age grouping: 30+ .259/.330/.380 255 PA 26-29 .260/.320/.413 400 PA <=25 .204/.264/.330 455 PA The best hitters, by "weighted runs created" (WRC+, 100 = average) are: >26 Nunez (147), Park (132), Mauer (130), Plouffe (108) <=25 Arcia (118), Sano (98) The worst hitters are Suzuki, Escobar and every youngster not named Sano. The Twins aren't quite ready to be a "young team". I'd say the Twins are in transition, getting younger as the season progresses. The OF will get younger once Buxton and Kepler prove they're ready. Centeno's playing time will increase if he proves he can handle it. Nunez, Plouffe and Dozier should be on the trading block. They can be replaced by younger players (Sano, Polanco, Beresford). But trade them for a decent return. Dumping veterans under control would be incredibly stupid. Even with limited trades, the starting position players should be 26 by the end of the year. Duffey and Berrios should stay in the rotation. The weighted average age of the rotation will decline quite a bit with these two getting regular starts. Move Hughes to the bullpen once Gibson returns (or DL if he has a chronic injury). Let Nolasco continue to start. Someone will take him before the trading deadline. His contract isn't unreasonable if he can prove to be an innings eater. The average rotation age should be 27 or less by the end of the year. The bullpen is a disaster. May, Abad and Pressley will be okay. Maybe Rogers will work out. Hopefully, the Twins bring up some of the youngsters as the season progresses. This is the panic zone.- 31 replies
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- joe mauer
- byron buxton
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Twins Being Overwhelmed By Underperformance
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
IMO, the issues are with the youngsters: The prospects aren't ready to play in the majors (Buxton, Kepler, the relievers)Rosario and Murphy need more AAA at batsArcia and Sano are still learning the gamePolanco and Santana need experienceDuffey and Berrios are just beginning their MLB careersAll of these players need time. It sucks that they're not ready, but they are not flops or failures. Santana, Duffey, Arcia and Murphy are 25 years old. The rest are younger. They will all get better. Until that happens, the Twins will be bad. It will get a bit better when Gibson and Erv are healthy and the rust is knocked off. Also - Why no love for Nunez? He's been a bright spot. Hopefully, he continues to play well and is traded for a prospect. -
Blame Ryan and Molitor? Sure. Fire them? I won't be upset. Doesn't matter in 2016. The main problem is the young Twins players haven't yet reached their potential as MLB players. Buxton, Polanco and Kepler are where they should be: AAA. Murphy needs a trip to AAA. Arcia and Santana are still figuring it out. Sano is still learning to adjust. All of the relief prospects have suffered injuries at some point. Duffey and Berrios are ready for the big leagues but just starting their careers. I'm all for trading our veterans between now and next season. Plouffe, Dozier, Nunez, Gibson, Arcia and Nolasco all have or will have trade value. Just don't dump them because fans want to "freshen up" the team. The youth movement can't fully start until the youth are ready to win in the big leagues.
- 124 replies
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- paul molitor
- jim pohlad
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Joe Mauer Is Already A (Specific) Hall of Fame Catcher
dbminn replied to Bill Parker's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Sabernerds have been using two different WAR calculations as a first-cut for HOF status: Lifetime WAR and 7-Year WAR (seven best consecutive years). Mauer has the fifth largest 7-year WAR for catchers and has already accumulated a career catcher WAR that is comparable to the HOF class. Add in his batting titles, MVP and gold gloves and it looks like he should have a pretty good chance to get in. Not likely on the first ballot. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_C.shtml- 19 replies
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- joe mauer
- hall of fame
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OBP from someone other than Mauer and Sano (the top two last year). Quality starts
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Berardino: Nick Burdi Hits 99 MPH Four Times Yestersday
dbminn replied to East Coast Twin's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I saw the same improvement in Burdi's mechanics in the Arizona Fall League. Throwing hard is fine, as far as it goes. A good pitcher hitting 99 with a decent slider... That's what we're looking for. -
Park Set as Twins' Opening Day DH - Or Is He?
dbminn commented on Steven Buhr's blog entry in SD Buhr/Jim Crikket
Baseball Rebellion has posted a too-long video analysis of Park's swing. Looks pretty good when he's hitting KBO pitches. A fun video to skim through. (I agree with this author that it doesn't necessarily mean Park will be ready in April) http://baseballrebellion.com/gabedimock/swing-breakdown-byung-ho-park/ -
Entering 2016, the Twins have plenty of positions that need improvement. The rotation is average at best. There are too many players available for 3B and, at least to start the season, not enough competent OF. A veteran RP would be nice. The young players have yet to reach their prime or, in some cases, show their worth. There has been almost no attempt to improve the roster because Ryan doesn't wheel and deal. He has no desire to make big trades. I would like to see a different GM at the end of the season, someone who is willing and able to make the moves necessary to compete at the highest level. (Actually, I would've liked to have seen a new GM last year) But is the FO broke? Hardly. The Twins record improved by 13 wins last year. They have a top-five prospect list. There is system depth at almost every position. Ryan acquired a C, a position where depth was an issue. He convinced the Pohlads to take a flyer on a Korean power hitter. The greatest outrages are Sano's move to the OF (a legit argument, IMO) and the need for a fourth RP (a lot of angst for maybe 0.5 WAR improvement). The Twins are not a pile of disparate pieces. Like it or not, Ryan has a clear plan to build from within. Whether it will result in a World Series win is an open question. It will probably be one more year before the Twins are even ready to compete for the division. Under a best case, a different GM could have made a couple of moves to improve chances this year - at some risk. So what? It's time for Spring Training. We have an interesting roster taking to the fields. A time to set a little bit of cynicism aside and enjoy a young team with a lot of potential. We'll get the chance to see several young power arms arrive to help the bullpen this year. Berrios will arrive. Plenty of young position players will be worth watching as they develop in 2016. I'm excited for the season, the chance to see these youngsters take the field. Why? Because the FO is not broke. The Twins are a team on the rise. Let Cincinnati bring out the pitchforks for their FO.
- 119 replies
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- terry ryan
- aaron hicks
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Punto was the definition of a utility player. Uneven hitting, extreme baserunning (for better or worse) and an elite glove. Fangraphs ranks him as the fourth best fielder in baseball from 2005 to 2013. Not an easy job, but he was good at it.
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I agree that the slash line is optimistic. I think there's a chance at 1B and DH. Steamer projections are more optimistic than both of us. Here's their best guess for 2016 OPS: Mauer (.745), Park (.806), Arcia (.772), Vargas (.750). Wow - didn't expect that.
- 71 replies
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- miguel sano
- byungho park
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I'd take 170 HR... Just give me a .260/.325/.420 slash line.
- 71 replies
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- miguel sano
- byungho park
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What Must Happen For Twins In Florida?
dbminn commented on Ted Schwerzler 's blog entry in Off The Baggy
"Health above everything". Agreed. Especially the young players. Buxton looking comfortable at the plate is second biggest issue for me. -
Charting The Competition: Chicago White Sox
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins will have a better record than the White Sox in 2016. How much better will depend on the performance of the youngsters.

