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Vargas should be recalled if the Twins go back to 12 pitchers. Zack Granite is most likely the next Twins OF if one of the regulars gets hurt. I'm all for him coming up if he's needed. He has a lot of positive tools: defense, speed and contact. In the meantime, Granite has had only 100+ PA at AAA. Another month or two in at Rochester will probably help (yes, 25 year-olds continue to learn).

What's the report on Sean Poppen? His K rate looks good. Does he have any velocity/stuff or is he a Harvard kid outsmarting Class A hitters?

I'm not so worried about the Twins position players. Dozier will have a streak or two and I believe at least one of the youngsters other than Sano will take a step up. One point of optimism is the defense. All of the starting position players are at least competently fielding the ball. That hides a lot of pitching deficiencies. The back end of the rotation needs help but the biggest problem is the bullpen. Let's hope the prospects can finally stay healthy. IMO, there are four relievers to choose from as the year goes on: Burdi, Melotakis, Curtiss and Bard. Gotta hope two of these guys will be ready come July 1. Regardless of the results in 2017, the team looks like it's shaping up to be very competitive in 2018. Mejia, Berrios and the RP prospects will have more experience under their belts. Falvey will be able to sell FA pitchers on the team's defense. And maybe Lamonte Wade steals the LF position next year?

Hah! Class of 78. We're all scarred.

Seriously? Me too. Population slumped after the Great Otter Harvest of 1932.

If by "prospect", one means a player who could become above average over several years, I'd say 25 is the last year of prospect status if they have at least 500 PA in MLB. I'd say 26 for the rest. I wouldn't necessarily give up on other players who have physical talent and are committed to improvement until 28. I'd be very careful using Zimmerman's aging curves for prospects. His method addresses a very limited question and suffers from the different number of observations in each age cohort. There are far fewer 19-21 year olds playing ball than those in their mid-late 20s. There are a lot of players who make the show in their mid-20s who stay in the league a very short time. They are quite likely to show an immediate decline in performance. Anyone interested in aging curves should look at a series of articles by Brian Henry. In the last of his five-part series, he shows that above-average players - defined as those who make it 10 years in MLB - show a very shallow aging curve until about 32 years old for hitting. By that measure, a talented prospect can still give you six good years from the age of 26.

Too bad about Arraez. I was looking forward to following him this year. I wish him a complete recovery.

Any news on Arraez?

Nice write up. I was surprised how big he looked this spring. I was impressed with his ST too.

Gibson has a great sinker - if his back and shoulder are healthy. Sinker/Slider has been his most effective combo (2014 and 2015). Last year, he wasn't healthy - he lost a fair amount of horizontal movement on his FB, sinker and change up. HR went up and ground balls went down a lot. His 4-seam FB has never been great and last year it got hammered. I'm for an increased mix of pitches but his sinker will always be important. I hope you find a way to live with your sinkerball hatred, Nick. I have the same issue with mimes but I'm learning to deal with it.

Pressley being used in a role like Andrew Miller. He's been brought in twice with multiple runners on base. Successful both times. Looks like he's the "high leverage" pitcher while Kinzler is the closer.

Remarkable spring, almost like Greek tragedy. Falvey tries to exile two soldiers from the old regime. Surprisingly, Park and Wimmers not only clear waivers but each has an excellent spring. Falvey's hubris blinds him to their success and they are sent to the bush. Adrianze gets hurt, allowing his new favorite son DanSan to remain on the roster. Adrianze will be exiled for 30 days, after which Falvey may have him reinjured so that he remains in the bush. Falvey's lust requires a large harem of pitchers. Early on, Haley caught his eye. He paid a small price for him, though his previous owner required Falvey keep him nearby lest he be taken back. Usually, this means sending a different pitcher away. But Falvey loved pitchers, so he kept every one (except Berrios, the darling of the old regime and all the land). Field General Molitor is unhappy with the new regime. Falvey is aware of Molitor's anger but cannot remove him for one year. Instead, he hires his old friend, Lieutenant Gimenez, to guard the harem. But what will happen when the war begins? End of Act I Meanwhile at TD, the Greek chorus sings...

A LOOGY is a luxury that only a decent pitching staff can afford. The starting rotation has to eat innings and keep the score close. It all fits together - better defense and a better rotation will lead to a more efficient and specialized bullpen. Otherwise, it's "all hands on board", like the 2016 Twins.

Good job Teflon. IMO, you underestimate some areas where I expect more improvement: SP: Gibson pitched hurt for most of the year (after returning from DL). It was bad enough he fundamentally changed his mechanics for 2017. He's throwing well and 29 years old. I expect he'll return to 2014-2015 form (+10 to 15 runs).Duffey and Berrios should be better than last year. I predict that between them they will have more than 30 starts. (For stat nerds, Duffey's FIP-WAR was 15 runs lower than RA9-WAR last year. For Berrios, 12 runs lower).Mejia and Berrios provide better depth to start the season. Gonsalves may be ready after the all-star break.Hughes should be able to pitch better now that he can feel his fingers. For this guesstimate, I'll say he'll still be below average.The bar was set awfully low during 2016. Looking at FG, it's not hard to see +40 runs from SP, even if none have a great season. Hitting: Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Rosario will show more than a combined +15, just based on progression. They all have enough AB under their belt to begin showing real improvement. Buxton and Rosario made strides at the end of last year and have continued down the same path in ST. I'd say +35, then subtract 10 for Dozier for +25. Fielding: Fangraphs shows Plouffe was really bad at 3B last year. Much worse than Sano. -10 runs looks pessimistic but I won't make any changes for it. Could be as many as +6 runs for Twins D(!). (Polanco at SS will probably take away any gains at third anyway.) Net change from Teflon's prediction is +40 runs. That brings to the Twins closer to 75 wins, which is about what I expect. Injuries to key players could send the win total down quite a bit. Breakout seasons by any of the youngsters could put them closer to even. I'll live with a predicted 75.

From what I've seen, Mejia is a more polished pitcher than Berrios. Mejia has been locating his pitches and staying cool with runners on base. Berrios has remarkable stuff but still needs work in those areas. I'm optimistic about both of them but right now I'd lean toward Mejia as the 5th starter. From the TV games this last week, I thought Mejia looked a lot like a left-handed DeLeon.

Kepler could play some 1B as well if Stubbs is on the roster.

Agreed. I thought Rosario did a much better job with pitch selection after his trip to AAA last season. From September 1 to season's end, he increased his BB rate to 6.8% and with a slash of .268/.318/439. That's reasonable for a young OF with incredible range and a strong arm. IMO, he'll continue to get better although with a few more bumps in the road.

I'm very optimistic about Polanco's bat. He is definitely a candidate for the leadoff spot and I wouldn't complain if they put him there. I also like a scenario where Polanco protects Sano. He puts the ball in play a lot. That'll put pressure on the pitcher during Sano's AB if Mauer and/or Dozier have already reached base.

The Twins don't have an ideal leadoff hitter. Let Dozier lead off until somebody else steps up. He likes hitting leadoff and is an elite baserunner (8th best in the majors from 2014 to 2016, according to Fangraphs). Mauer prefers not to lead off and got on base only two more times per 100 PA last year. Not enough to make up for the base running difference. Maybe Buxton moves up by the middle of the season. The Indians and Cubs don't have an ideal leadoff hitter either. In a couple of ways, their choices are a lot like Dozier. Santana is a superior OBP guy and Schwarber will probably get on base a lot. They both hit for power. The only difference is that they won't run the bases nearly as well as Dozier.

Are the Twins going to be aggressive with international signings this year? I've read about the Marte rumors. Seems like this will be a good year to pounce with a lot of the big money teams out of the running.

Hopefully, the prospects pitch well enough to get a chance with the big league club. With a large pool of capable RP with options, the Twins can mirror the Yankees bullpen scheme. They run a shuttle between AAA and the MLB team. This strategy reduces the chance for too many appearances by any single reliever. IMO, the Twins are a prime candidate for this strategy since their SP rarely make it through the sixth inning. Just need to have available arms to make it work.

I predict I'll enjoy watching the Twins as much as I'm enjoying the Timberwolves this season. Except more, because baseball is my favorite sport. The Twins lack depth and there will be bouts of inconsistency. There are holes in the roster. But there is a lot of young talent that I expect, on the whole, will take a big step forward this year. That will make them worth my time.

Santana is the most likely to throw 200. Gibson has a chance if the nagging injuries have healed. Santiago has reached 180 each of the last two years (is that a good thing?). I'm more concerned with quality starts. The Twins had 59 in 2016 while league average was 76. To get to league average, the young pitchers are going to have to step up and Gibson has to return to form. May is going to be skipped sometimes and Hughes may not get many starts.

My dark horse for a Dozier trade is the New York Yankees. If they are playing well the first half and Castro is struggling, I could see Cashman kicking the tires. They have plenty of prospects to make a trade. Phenom Gleyber Torres hasn't played above A+ and is probably at least one more year away. This trade isn't likely but it's not completely out of the realm of possibility.

My bad on the citation. I took no sides on the articles.