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dbminn

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Everything posted by dbminn

  1. dbminn
    A lot of attention is given to the "JAWS" Leaders. It's a combination of a player's best seven years and career WAR. Mauer is ranked the 7th best catcher of all time. From Baseball Reference.
  2. dbminn
    Well played game. Gibson, Mauer(!), Grossman and Polanco all stepped up. Herrera's 98 is nothing compared to Belisle... Ha!
  3. dbminn
    Small ball rocks! (at least tonight)
  4. dbminn
    Watching Mauer during the 2014-16 seasons was miserable at times. Imagine how awful it must have been for him. I've noticed he's smiled more in the last month than he did the two previous years. Since May 1 - .319/.405/.447 2004-13 - .323/.405/.468 The league is much higher scoring now than it was early in his career. Still, he's had a nice run the past few months. I'm glad we're getting one more run of classic Joe.
  5. dbminn
    Ryan and staff (Smith) did their part for the current team. A very young, solid core that will compete until 2020. Glad it's in the hands of others (Falvey, et al) to take them the rest of the way.
  6. dbminn
    I pity Souhan. That's the most fearful, bitter rant I've read outside of conspiracy blogs.
  7. dbminn
    Wow. More Mauer glovework
  8. dbminn
    WHEW! Sorry to have put everyone in a lather...
  9. dbminn
    All true. Still, I made a prediction and now I have to live with it!
  10. dbminn
    Doesn't sound good for Buxton. Strib report says hamate bone. Awaiting MRI results.
  11. dbminn
    You're probably right but it wouldn't be any fun if I predicted 4.75. Also, his combined ERA was about that for his first two full years (4.17).
  12. dbminn
    I agree. I understand letting him go if he doesn't perform the rest of 2017. I just think pain and a restructuring of mechanics are the reasons he's been lousy. If Gibson is healthy, I'll take the "under" for a 4.25 ERA next season. Just my opinion but you can hold me to it.
  13. dbminn
    I hope Gibson is pain-free and has regained his rhythm. If he can give the Twins 2-3R in 6IP each time out the rest of this year, I'll be happy. It might be the difference between a WC game and an early offseason. Gibson's put in the work and the talent is there. He was solid in 2014, his first full season. Then, as Nick points out, he was very good in 2015 (3.84 ERA/ 3.96 FIP, 194.2 IP). If he doesn't perform now, he'll move on. Just don't be surprised if the 2015 Gibson reappears after he's gone.
  14. dbminn
    I like your response. Just one comment: Buxton may go back to a leg kick but it isn't necessary. Check out this link at 1:30 (Stanton's new closed stance). Kris Bryant is another with a quiet front foot. Like you said, Buxton is lanky, so less movement might be better for him.
  15. dbminn
    Sorry, the 22 hr was Cody. You were the one who cherry-picked clutch and RISP data in your last Dozier post. That's negativity bias as well. You're right to call out Souhan but I'm not a fan of that sort of thing in any case. I've given up on Souhan because he's totally awful. You, on the other hand, are usually a pleasure to read. But when it comes to Dozier...
  16. dbminn
    Thank goodness there's no negativity bias here! By the way Nick, I think Dozier passed your 22 HR prediction.
  17. dbminn
    Spotrac has the 2017 Twins payroll at $113M (less draft pick bonuses and a mistake on Garcia). In 2018, the Twins will drop payroll from: Santiago ($8M), Perkins ($6.5M option year, $700k buyout), Breslow ($1.25M), Gimenez ($1.0M) Nolasco commitment from trade ($4M), and Garcia's commitment from trade ($4.2M - not the $11.8M shown on Spotrac). That's $24.5M available before raises. Pressley, Gibson, Escobar, Grossman, Adrianza and May are arb-eligible. Dozier gets a $3M raise. The rest are under team control. A rough estimate would be a net drop of $15M. That brings to budget to $98M with no changes. This estimate assumes players already in the organization would fill the rotation and bullpen. Let's make it a $100M starting point. I think the Twins should spend $130M/yr. Once they're competitive, market size and attendance should easily justify that payroll. By my estimate, the Twins should have $30M to spend in 2018. Many of the Twins' core hit arbitration in 2018, but Mauer, Dozier and Santana (if less than 200 innings) come off the books. That's between $32M and $45M gone from the payroll in 2019. They'll add up to $20M back for the arbitrated contracts. Still, it's likely a net reduction of $25M they can spend in 2019. The Twins have some flexibility if they're willing to have an average payroll. They could trade Santana and Dozier if they want more available money in 2018. They have prospects to trade if they want to go that route. It's all open - as long as the Pohlads are willing to pay for a competitive team.
  18. dbminn
    The same people not wanting to extend Dozier "on the wrong side of 30" don't want to name the players they are going to acquire with the saved money. Which FA pitcher is going to put us over the top? The one that won't be signed through the wrong side of 30? Why not address the 2B I named as being good on the wrong side of 30 (you can add Murphy to that list as well). Why expect less from Dozier? I don't hear anyone explaining how we'll make up the HR and ISO that will go with Dozier. Removing him from the lineup puts the Twins near the bottom in both categories. A lot of people wanted to trade Dozier last off-season for a perennially injured AAA pitcher. I suspect the same folks are willing to go that route again (hence the "let the Twins win in 2018"). Some even want to risk losing him after next year without compensation (The QO system ain't what it used to be). Doesn't sound all that wise to me. And yes, I'm aware there are 25 players on a roster.
  19. dbminn
    Sign Dozier to an extension. Why? He's been a top-5 2B from 2014-2017 (third by Fangraphs)He's been relatively injury free, averaging more than 150 G/yr the past four years.Recent comparable 2B have aged reasonably well (see Kinsler, Cano and Pedroia in link above)The Twins have three more years to compete with their current core players (Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Rosario, Kepler). The young players have shown they are ready to compete now.Market demand for 2B is low right now. While that makes it difficult to trade Dozier, it also makes him cheaper to sign.The Twins don't have anyone as good to replace him. Gordon might be an average pro in 2018, his likely rookie season.The closest comp is Kinsler. He signed for 5 yr/$85M before the 2013 season, the year he would turn 31. Dozier will turn 31 next year and is signed for $9M. At least try to offer him 4 yr/$65M while market demand is low. Tear up next year's $9M deal and front-load the salary. Let's see the Twins try to win in 2018!
  20. dbminn
    Twins played nine games in eight days and the bullpen is still in good shape.
  21. dbminn
    Congratulations to Mitch Garver - well deserved!
  22. dbminn
    Garver and Granite seem like locks. Palka and/or Vielma are two players the FO could call up. They might be on the DFA bubble for next year. All are on the 40-man roster. Turley is the only SP on the roster that should get the call. Romero is almost to his innings limit - he has about 15 IP left in the tank - so I doubt he'll be here in September. Gonsalves deserves a chance and I deserve to see him pitch. Gotta think the FO will clear a roster spot for him (Monday?). There are some decent AAA RP but none are on the 40-man roster. Maybe they will add one of them. Bard or Curtiss maybe?
  23. dbminn
    Molitor has done a good job this year. The team is resilient, even with a shaky pitching staff. The young players have been given the chance to work out of slumps. When they haven't been able to turn it around, they've been given a few days off. Bullpen management has been fine. I wouldn't mind if he was given another couple of years. That being said, I think Molitor will be gone. It's Falvey's team and he will want to bring in his own manager. There will be plenty of interest in the job, considering the development of the young players. Five starters are 25 or younger and all will have had at least 700 PA by the end of the year (all but Polanco will be at 1,000+ PA). Two young SP will be in the rotation and we may finally see more young bullpen arms in 2018. I expect the FO will bring in help via trade and/or FA this offseason too. I am curious about the coaching staff. I think Rowson and Pickel are Falvine's people. Hard to argue with their efforts. I wonder if the FO will let them go too.
  24. dbminn
    streaking upward
  25. dbminn
    Since Rosario returned from AAA on July 3, 2016, his slash line looks like this: 631 PA, .299/.336/.493 with 23 HR After his return from AAA to the end of 2016, his BABIP was .387 and his BB and K rates were 3.9% and 25.8%, respectively. He had improved his slash line but the jury was still out due to poor pitch selection. Now in 2017, his BABIP sits at .332 (basically his career average) and he's upped his pitch selection, reflected by his 6.0% BB and 18.8% K rates. Rosario is a streaky hitter. He's going to have ups and downs. But he's become a productive ballplayer and he's still only 25. I'm optimistic he'll continue to be very good - with upside.
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