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dbminn

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Everything posted by dbminn

  1. dbminn
    If Hunter had not come back this year, I would've said no. Now, let's see what happens the next couple of years. If this team makes a World Series and the young OF are a big part of the success, Hunter might become part of a final Twins HOF-type story. Retire his number? Probably not.
  2. dbminn
    Would this have sounded better? "Sano definitely needs to play 3B, so we have to trade Plouffe" "Our starting outfield next year is already set. Rosario/Buxton/Hicks, no matter what!" "I'm going to fight for Berrios in the 2016 opening rotation" "We don't want Hunter, even if he's willing to be the 5th OF" Wouldn't make a lot of sense. Reading between the lines says you don't show your hand before anyone has anted up.
  3. dbminn
    I agree that Gibson is the most tradable pitching asset. Signing Ervin Santana last year gave the Twins depth but created a jam for developing young starters. None of the other veteran starters would be attractive to anyone this offseason. Gibson has shown he can dominate (eight starts with no earned runs, 18 with 2 ER or less). His upside is a bit more than other pitchers with the same record because his problem is solvable - pitching from the stretch. I wouldn't trade Gibson for the sake of opening up a rotation spot. He would have to be part of a trade involving a top-30 pitcher or a high-end young catcher that is MLB ready.
  4. dbminn
    Great points. I've been very happy with Neil Allen's emphasis on having a change-up or a wipeout pitch. I hope this can be done without significantly increasing walks. Gibson's K rate went up significantly towards the end of the year. Unfortunately, he didn't command his pitches as well as early in the season. Duffey's curve is an obvious strikeout pitch but I think he's going to have to improve his changeup to continue to have success. Velo is great but a starter still needs complementary stuff to be a complete pitcher.
  5. dbminn
    Thankfully, I've never seen Terry Ryan "thump his chest".
  6. dbminn
    I guess instead of "correcting" reality at every possible point, I looked at which teams were successful (RA9-WAR). http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,4,5,11,7,8,13,-1,36,37,40,43,44,48,51,-1,6,45,62,-1,59,212,76&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d I especially have a problem with people's use of FIP to determine the "best" pitcher. Of course FIP is correlated to K. That is what Fangraphs deems important. But FIP is not a complete measure of performance. It is basically a predictive value that gives very little consideration to control pitchers. Strikeouts, walks and HR. That is not the entire game. Maybe we should have a sequencing "myth" page too. A chunk of baseball is always going to be random variability - that's what makes it fun. But elite command pitchers can control more than K/BB/HR, and they can lead the league. Greinke didn't top the league in FIP, but I'd take his RA-9 WAR. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-three-keys-to-zack-greinkes-scoreless-streak/ A power pitcher that Ks a lot but doesn't have a ton of command may groove fastballs once behind in the count. A good hitter will get a lot more base hits in that case. (See Corey Kluber this year) "But his FIP was so solid!"
  7. dbminn
    As for teams in the playoffs... The Astros, Cubs, Blue Jays and Rangers all rank between 24th and 30th in starters' fastball velocity. The Royals starters throw hard, but their fWAR and RA9-WAR (what really happened) was lower than the Twins starters. Here are the top K/9 for starters in MLB: Indians, Cubs, Nationals, Padres, Rays, White Sox. K/9 and velocity are not the most important factors for a rotation. Same holds true for bullpens (BB/9 seems to be a better indicator). That said, it's great to have an elite starter who has everything working: velo, stuff and command. But you don't need all three to be at the top of the leaderboard. Greinke, Kuechel, King Felix, Hamels, Cueto... there are a lot of front-line pitchers who aren't throwing 94+
  8. dbminn
    There has been no meltdown or implosion with Perkins. He was guilty of pitching through back/neck injuries for six weeks. I trust both Perkins and Jepsen. Still, they're human, so they might blow a save sometime between now and the end of the season. Oh - when Perkins is healthy, he's elite.
  9. dbminn
    Nice to see the Lookouts playing so well after a tough second half of the season. They lost Sano, Buxton and Berrios but have come together in the playoffs. It looked like everyone pitched around Kepler the last few weeks of the regular season. He probably won't see many good pitches the rest of this series if the opponents are smart.
  10. dbminn
    On the upside, the three young Twins outfielders have potential to dominate the game as a group. They could easily combine for 60HR / 60SB per year while playing well above average defense. Not many outfields have that kind of production. In reality, they may not all develop like we hope. Kepler adds depth to the OF for the future. I really don't want the Twins to trade any of the four this offseason. If they make a deal that includes an OF, I would trade Rosario. I prefer Kepler's K/BB ratio. You don't have to lead the league in offense if the other parts of the game are very good. According to FanGraphs, the Pirates, Cardinals and the Cubs(!) - are ranked high in pitching and defense and are middle of the pack offensively. The Royals are the only team ranked high in every category. Granted, the Astros, Blue Jays and Yankees are slugging. But you don't have to hit home runs: the Pirates, Cardinals and Royals are all ranked 20th or lower. This year's Twins are ranked 17th in HR.
  11. dbminn
    Thought they might pick Levi Michael. I don't watch many MiLB games, so I'm going by stats only. He seems to have finally stayed free of injuries long enough to start hitting. He's only had 230 PAs this year and could use some more. Any comments on Michael from those who have seen him play this year?
  12. dbminn
    Nice summary. I expect Robinson will be back in 2016, at least in spring training. Relatively high value for his salary. The Twins will want to make sure that all of their young outfielders are healthy and mentally prepared for the season before Robinson is moved. The FO may want to see Kepler at AAA for the first month to make sure he get's off to a good start before making the show. Arcia will stay on the 40-man roster. Spring training will be huge for him. It's possible he could be included in a multiple player trade in the offseason. Such high potential - it's a shame he can't improve his approach at the plate (or in the field).
  13. dbminn
    Thanks for the response, Spycake. I agree that we shouldn't close the book on Turner and also that his hitting this year is nothing to get excited about. Still, I'd like to clarify a couple of things: The article is about the major league team. Turner was never expected to be a major leaguer this year. He has advanced from A+ to AA and will need one more year at this level before he even appears at the edge of the MLB radar. No reason to use the word "fail" in this context. Just say the young man is not close to the majors.I argued that he was a college catcher. Only one AA catcher from your Fangraphs link was as young as Turner and went to college: Kyle Schwarber, a hitter who has failed to develop as a catcher. The others have had 3-4 years in professional baseball. Turner was a part-time, aluminum bat wielding baseball player who was also a college student.I probably wasn't clear enough on how I view young catchers. IMO, defense and game calling are more important than hitting at this phase of a catcher's development (23, 2nd year in pro ball). Catchers are notorious for late development as hitters. Here's Kiley McDaniel's scouting report from FanGraphs: "Turner isn’t the guy you get excited about at first glance, but he might turn into a big league starter behind the plate. He’s an advanced catch-and-throw guy that gives pitchers a big target, he calls his own games and has the plus arm to shut down the running game." Sounds like he hasn't failed yet as a defensive catcher, which, to me, is more important at this point.
  14. dbminn
    Nick Gordon is slashing .333/.378/.449 in July. Nice to see.
  15. dbminn
    Stuart Turner has yet to "fail to develop". He's a 23-year old college catcher in his first year at AA ball. Catchers have a lot more responsibility than simply putting up a slash line. No one should expect him to be dominating AA at this point.
  16. dbminn
    A major league ready catcher would be my priority. Depending on the catcher, players to trade could include, as options, (not all) Arcia, Plouffe, Polanco or any from a list of the younger (2017 or later) prospects. Again, depends on the catcher. There are several teams with an established catcher and a younger second. Someone mentioned Cozart as a possible SS trade. Of course, he's rehabbing right now but I'd be willing to talk to Cincinnati about him in the offseason. I would not want to trade Buxton, Berrios, Sano or Kepler for either position. Rosario maybe for the right player.
  17. dbminn
    I hope the goal is to trade for younger players during the offseason. The Twins have several C prospects to pursue at that time. 30-year old free agents should not be the priority.
  18. dbminn
    Stick with internal options this year. Rollins and Segura are not upgrades.Tulo is too old for his contract and for a young Twins team. Cozart is injured and won't return until next year.The Twins can explore trades for a younger SS in the offseason, if the deal is right. Cozart would be a possibility at that time. I would like to see the Twins follow the model of teams that have been successful for a number of years. The Cardinals, Pirates, Nationals and Giants all have everyday lineups that are primarily homegrown*. Both the Cardinals (Pujols, Freese) and the Giants (Sandoval) have replaced established contributors with younger players, all while competing for championships. (*Some of the players were obtained while either in the minors or while under control.)
  19. dbminn
    The voters won't look at the team's record for the last four years. Mauer had very good years in 2012 and 2013. His struggles have only occurred in the last 18 months. Joe has looked like his old self the last three weeks. Hopefully that'll continue.
  20. dbminn
    A fine analysis of the first half, Brandon. It's great that the Twins have improved enough that this article was possible. While May has shown improvement all year, Hicks is the player that has shown the most surprising gains. He still has a lot of rough edges at the plate but the light has turned on. His continued solid play is needed if the Twins are going to make the playoffs.
  21. dbminn
    Congratulations to the Twins on a successful first half, from the field to the manager to the front office. Twins baseball has been fun again. I expected the starting rotation to be fairly consistent this year but I didn't see more than .500 by the all-star break. Until the last 10 days, the veteran hitters had provided most of the run production. Somehow, adding Sano has energized the other young hitters; Rosario, Santana and (wow) Hicks. They give me a bit more optimism about the second half.
  22. dbminn
    I believe we'll see Arcia again this year. He just turned 24 years old and still has tremendous potential as a hitter. My hope is he comes up and subs more than occasionally for Hunter, who is beginning to look like a tired hitter. Give the old man a few more breaks! I wouldn't trade him until he has greater value.
  23. dbminn
    Pelfrey to the pen.
  24. dbminn
    The key thought from ttreadway, "My opinion is that the twins FO is doing things right, and I hope and pray that they don't trade away any valuable future prospects this month in an attempt to win 4 or 5 more games." I agree. My lineup would resemble the one put together by blairpaul715, except I would have a 25-man roster (not 24 - am I counting ok?). I would add Arcia, so we have a left-handed power hitter. 12 pitchers are enough. Since this is an ideal roster, I would have Berrios in the rotation as well. Realistically, I would keep Milone until Berrios is ready.
  25. dbminn
    Congratulations to Brandon Peterson. Glad to see Luke Bard pitching again and performing well. He's pitched the same number of innings this year that he had pitched in his entire career through 2014.
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