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dbminn

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Everything posted by dbminn

  1. dbminn
    Good post. Just for discussion - I think Upton will be more valuable than 0.5 WAR and I don't use WAR for relievers. Finally, we have to look at who the Twins have as replacements. I wouldn't make this trade if we were short at 3B or middle infield. Still, you make a good point.
  2. dbminn
    Plouffe, Polanco and Nolasco for Shields, Pomeranz and Melvin Upton. Payroll Change (Shields + Upton) - (Plouffe + Nolasco) 2016 - ($21M + $15.4M) - ($7.7M + $11M) = $17.7M 2017 - ($21M + $16.4M) - ($13M? + $12M) = $12.4M 2018 - $23M = $23.0M TOTAL PADRES SAVINGS/TWINS COST = $53.1M or $17.7M per year Twins get a LHRP, a 3.0 WAR starter and a veteran OF.Padres get salary relief, a solid middle infield prospect, a 2.0+ WAR 3B/1B and a questionable starter. (Plouffe could be spun at some point for a couple of prospects)I'm more bullish on Melvin Upton than Fangraphs and probably everyone on this site. I expect him to repeat 2015. Twins get 1 yr Shields, 2yr Upton and a LHRP for $9.1M if Shields opts out. Not saying I'm all for this trade. Just trying to be creative.
  3. dbminn
    I think the Twins need to sign or trade for better than a backup OF. I believe Plouffe will be traded. That leaves Rosario as the only established OF and he has only one year of experience. What are the odds that one of Rosario, Kepler and Buxton are either not MLB-ready or get injured? There is no harm having four good OF in the best case. Beats the current risk of ending up with less than three good OF. Three Winter Meeting Options: Option 1 - Easy Span - 2 yr/$28M (Fangraphs says 3/$36. At today's prices, still not so bad) Option 2 - Youth Ozuna - Trade Duffey, Jake Reed and a third player to Miami. (3rd player depends on what you think Ozuna is worth) Option 3 - Never Gonna Happen but would be Fun Heyward - 9 yr/$207M with a 4-year player option. What if Kepler, Buxton and Rosario all turn out perfectly wonderful? Trade either Ozuna/Span, Rosario or Kepler next year. What if Plouffe isn't traded? Well, just sign Gentry or some other 4th OF and see what happens, I guess.
  4. dbminn
    Signing Nunez is perfectly fine. Reserve utility infielders who hit league average with some power are worth at least what he'll be paid. He can be traded later in the year if the Twins think they have a better option for his role. I'm surprised they tendered Fien. I would've let him leave.
  5. dbminn
    Great reporting, Parker. A lot of fragments from the past put into context. Watching the three Valencia swings, it seems that he finishes on his heel in the first two and more on the flat/ball of the foot in the Toronto video. Seems he's in better balance now.
  6. dbminn
    I still think the Twins need to add a late inning LHRP. Otherwise, the youngsters are the best hope for elite bullpen depth. Here's a link to a new MLB article that provides some data to support Nick about bullpen use: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/157383440/starting-pitchers-should-throw-fewer-innings
  7. dbminn
    Great Hot Stove article! You have forgotten two Twins teams that were pretty incredible: 1969 (97 wins) and 1970 (98 wins). Unfortunately, this was the era of Orioles pitching. Here's the lineup and ages in 1970: C George Mitterwald 25 2 1B Rich Reese 28 3 2B Rod Carew 24 (hitting .366 before knee injury) and Danny Thompson 23 4 SS Leo Cardenas 31 5 3B Harmon Killebrew 34 6 LF Brant Alyea 29 7 CF Cesar Tovar 29 8 RF Tony Oliva 31 Starting rotation included Blyleven (19), Kaat (31), Tiant (29 but seemed a lot older), Perry (34) and Tommie Hall (22). Old-timers Perranoski and Williams in bullpen with Dave Boswell (25). One of my favorite Twins teams. Probably because I was 9 years old and they were winning a lot of games.
  8. dbminn
    SDBuhr, I like the idea of Berrios starting the season in the bullpen. I also agree that a good team has pitching depth at both the MLB and MiLB levels. I would not sign Fister. He's had two years of decline in his underlying stats (fastball velo <87 mph, ground balls, Ks). My preference is to trade for one RP and sign or trade for a 4th OF. I'd take a chance with the other nine available starters. I would trade Plouffe if the deal is right but I have no problem keeping him in Minnesota if there are no decent offers.
  9. dbminn
    1. The sum better than the whole. 2. Miguel Sano 3. Tyler Duffey 4. Eddie Rosario 5. Trevor May/Kevin Jepsen in the bullpen
  10. dbminn
    Completely agree that in-house prospects and trades are the best choices.
  11. dbminn
    Because of the SP logjam, the best way for the Twins to improve this year is to upgrade the bullpen. They'll be pitching about 40 percent of the time and are cheaper than starters. We've got room to add at least a couple of quality RP. IMO, relievers are nearly as valuable as starters if you have quality depth. Compare Win Probability Added (WPA) for some of last year's top teams. The Pirates, Royals, Cardinals, Yankees, Rangers and Cubs heavily relied on their RP to win games. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=2,d The Twins need two more things to happen for this strategy to work: The hitters will have to keep the game close .Buxton and Kepler need to quickly progress so there's enough defense to support the pitchers.
  12. dbminn
    I agree 100 percent - Yuck!
  13. dbminn
    There are a many more high-leverage situations as you enter the late innings. Bullpen depth is a better solution than simply using the closer in the 6th, IMO. Specialists or very good set-up RP would be a better bet. If all the team has is a good closer, I would agree with you.
  14. dbminn
    Twins need a power LH RP. There isn't much in the MiLB cupboard, even when you include back of the rotation types. IMO, a trade would be best.
  15. dbminn
    I don't think this has been added yet... JR Murphy calling out Carlos Gomez. Things don't become clear until the last minute. Just for fun... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEtOPFbxVgE
  16. dbminn
    Second column from the right. I would also use the pergame data because there are a lot of catchers listed who caught 0-1,000 pitches. Total strikes doesn't make for good ranking, IMO. Suzuki is not a great catcher. I just noted my surprise that his 2015 strikes added/lost per game is essentially zero, considering how bad the data looked for 2014.
  17. dbminn
    PerGame column. At least read the comment. Suzuki saw three times as many pitches. I also linked to statcorner and noted it in my original comment.
  18. dbminn
    I was looking at the PerGame column. Suzuki saw a lot more pitches than Murphy. totals were -0.01/-0.07 extra strikes per game. That is neutral. Where are you getting 90th place? That must be for 2014. In 2015, he's ranked right behind Murphy. (That may be my fault, if I linked to 2014 instead of last year)
  19. dbminn
    According to BP (by way of FanGraphs), he's supposed to be an above average pitch framer. By last year's StatCorner data, he's neutral. RE: Suzuki and pitch framing. In 2014, he was bad. By 2015 data, he was neutral. http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php
  20. dbminn
    I was hoping for a multiplayer deal that brought a C with higher upside. Not a bad trade but not what I wanted to see. Hicks probably has more upside than Murphy. We needed a solid defensive catcher who can hit better than Suzuki and that's what we've gotten. I expect a Suzuki/Murphy platoon, at least to start the year.
  21. dbminn
    I agree with others who wouldn't look to trade Rosario but would listen if the price is right. He's 24 years old. His main problem is plate discipline, which can be solved by patience and experience. I'll take the bet that we haven't seen his best. Yes, he could slump next year if he doesn't make adjustments. Long-term, he'll figure it out. I'd prefer to trade Plouffe and/or Hicks as part of deals for a good C and RP. But I'd rather keep the current roster if Ryan can't find a reasonable deal during the winter. None of these players should be traded just to remove the perceived logjam.
  22. dbminn
    I would prefer a deal with the Padres for a catcher. If the Padres are interested in Plouffe, that would signal they are going for the playoffs next year. In that case, wouldn't they be more likely to trade their catching prospect than Norris?
  23. dbminn
    No. It's a seller's market for FA catchers and the risk isn't worth the cost of Weiters. Instead of clogging the budget, we can spend some prospect capital on a young catcher. Plawecki, Norris and Hedges have already been mentioned. I'd include Hector Sanchez (Giants) and Austin Barnes (Dodgers) as well. Both the Giants and the Dodgers need pitching, so Gibson might be a good piece to offer as part of a package. He would play well at both home stadiums. These guys will cost good players, but we need a quality catcher that can grow with the current crop of Twins prospects.
  24. dbminn
    Watching the Royals just magnifies the reasons why Arcia isn't an answer in the outfield. Poor defense and massive strikeout rate for a team that already strikes out too much compared to power output. And, as much as I would like to see Trevor May start, I think he's more valuable in the bullpen, given the existing starting rotation and lack of ready relief pitching. Hopefully, some of the young bullpen arms will be ready by mid-year, putting May back in the rotation by 2017.
  25. dbminn
    I have to disagree with you about Blyleven. He was a dominant pitcher throughout his early twenties. He just didn't get much support. He had a 47.1 fWAR in his first seven years (6.7 WAR/yr), then returned to help win a World Series. His fWAR was second in MLB to Tom Seaver in his first Twins stint.
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