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I pity Souhan. That's the most fearful, bitter rant I've read outside of conspiracy blogs.

Wow. More Mauer glovework

WHEW! Sorry to have put everyone in a lather...

All true. Still, I made a prediction and now I have to live with it!

Doesn't sound good for Buxton. Strib report says hamate bone. Awaiting MRI results.

You're probably right but it wouldn't be any fun if I predicted 4.75. Also, his combined ERA was about that for his first two full years (4.17).

I agree. I understand letting him go if he doesn't perform the rest of 2017. I just think pain and a restructuring of mechanics are the reasons he's been lousy. If Gibson is healthy, I'll take the "under" for a 4.25 ERA next season. Just my opinion but you can hold me to it.

I hope Gibson is pain-free and has regained his rhythm. If he can give the Twins 2-3R in 6IP each time out the rest of this year, I'll be happy. It might be the difference between a WC game and an early offseason. Gibson's put in the work and the talent is there. He was solid in 2014, his first full season. Then, as Nick points out, he was very good in 2015 (3.84 ERA/ 3.96 FIP, 194.2 IP). If he doesn't perform now, he'll move on. Just don't be surprised if the 2015 Gibson reappears after he's gone.

I like your response. Just one comment: Buxton may go back to a leg kick but it isn't necessary. Check out this link at 1:30 (Stanton's new closed stance). Kris Bryant is another with a quiet front foot. Like you said, Buxton is lanky, so less movement might be better for him.

Sorry, the 22 hr was Cody. You were the one who cherry-picked clutch and RISP data in your last Dozier post. That's negativity bias as well. You're right to call out Souhan but I'm not a fan of that sort of thing in any case. I've given up on Souhan because he's totally awful. You, on the other hand, are usually a pleasure to read. But when it comes to Dozier...

Thank goodness there's no negativity bias here! By the way Nick, I think Dozier passed your 22 HR prediction.

Spotrac has the 2017 Twins payroll at $113M (less draft pick bonuses and a mistake on Garcia). In 2018, the Twins will drop payroll from: Santiago ($8M), Perkins ($6.5M option year, $700k buyout), Breslow ($1.25M), Gimenez ($1.0M) Nolasco commitment from trade ($4M), and Garcia's commitment from trade ($4.2M - not the $11.8M shown on Spotrac). That's $24.5M available before raises. Pressley, Gibson, Escobar, Grossman, Adrianza and May are arb-eligible. Dozier gets a $3M raise. The rest are under team control. A rough estimate would be a net drop of $15M. That brings to budget to $98M with no changes. This estimate assumes players already in the organization would fill the rotation and bullpen. Let's make it a $100M starting point. I think the Twins should spend $130M/yr. Once they're competitive, market size and attendance should easily justify that payroll. By my estimate, the Twins should have $30M to spend in 2018. Many of the Twins' core hit arbitration in 2018, but Mauer, Dozier and Santana (if less than 200 innings) come off the books. That's between $32M and $45M gone from the payroll in 2019. They'll add up to $20M back for the arbitrated contracts. Still, it's likely a net reduction of $25M they can spend in 2019. The Twins have some flexibility if they're willing to have an average payroll. They could trade Santana and Dozier if they want more available money in 2018. They have prospects to trade if they want to go that route. It's all open - as long as the Pohlads are willing to pay for a competitive team.

Twins played nine games in eight days and the bullpen is still in good shape.

Molitor has done a good job this year. The team is resilient, even with a shaky pitching staff. The young players have been given the chance to work out of slumps. When they haven't been able to turn it around, they've been given a few days off. Bullpen management has been fine. I wouldn't mind if he was given another couple of years. That being said, I think Molitor will be gone. It's Falvey's team and he will want to bring in his own manager. There will be plenty of interest in the job, considering the development of the young players. Five starters are 25 or younger and all will have had at least 700 PA by the end of the year (all but Polanco will be at 1,000+ PA). Two young SP will be in the rotation and we may finally see more young bullpen arms in 2018. I expect the FO will bring in help via trade and/or FA this offseason too. I am curious about the coaching staff. I think Rowson and Pickel are Falvine's people. Hard to argue with their efforts. I wonder if the FO will let them go too.

streaking upward

Since Rosario returned from AAA on July 3, 2016, his slash line looks like this: 631 PA, .299/.336/.493 with 23 HR After his return from AAA to the end of 2016, his BABIP was .387 and his BB and K rates were 3.9% and 25.8%, respectively. He had improved his slash line but the jury was still out due to poor pitch selection. Now in 2017, his BABIP sits at .332 (basically his career average) and he's upped his pitch selection, reflected by his 6.0% BB and 18.8% K rates. Rosario is a streaky hitter. He's going to have ups and downs. But he's become a productive ballplayer and he's still only 25. I'm optimistic he'll continue to be very good - with upside.

Matt Belisle serves up 3K in the 9th after Bartolo deals seven scoreless. Hah! A little bit surreal.

It doesn't matter that a couple of non-prospects had a good July. What matters is that the prospects are all making progress. And they are. It isn't just the college ballplayers that are having a good start, it's the teenagers as well. Seth could've moved Badoo, Lewis and Javier ahead of Park on the list. What would "not bode well" is if these guys were scuffling at their respective levels. RE: Prospects being 2-2.5 years younger than league average... The average age in Appy is 20.3. The teenagers are doing fine. MWL - Average age is 21.2. There are only three teenage hitters in the top 50. Palacios is 20 and was ranked 11th before moving up to FTM. Diaz, Blankenhorn and Whitefield are all 20 and only slightly above average. Maybe that doesn't bode well but I'm at least going to give the softball player some credit. (16 teams in the league means only 1 out of 5 teams has a teenager in the top 50) FSL - Average age is 22.8. There are only three hitters 20 or younger in the top 50 (WRC+, 50 PA). Definitely a lack of Twins hitting prospects except for Palacios. Rooker is scuffling but he's entering his 2nd month of pro ball.(12 teams, only 1 out of 4 teams have a "prospect") Southern - Average age is 24.1. There are 5 hitters 21 or younger in the top 50, including Gordon. Another 5 are 22. Wade is 23 years old and in the top 50. He's in his 2nd full season of pro ball. I consider him a "prospect" but he's no sure bet. (10 teams, 10 players 22 or younger on the list) As I said, I think the players that are in the system "look pretty good" considering how few players actually meet your 2-2.5 year threshold for prospects.

I'm happy that Garver had a good month in AAA. Hard to be upset that the Twins have a catcher ready to move to MLB. That's how prospects are supposed to progress. I'm also not concerned that a couple of non-prospects had great months. Congratulations to Park and Rodriguez - they deserve their rankings because they raked. All of the healthy MLB Top 30 hitting prospects are showing progress except for Rortvedt, who's a 19 year-old catcher in a league where the average player is 21. You could argue that Blankenhorn has some work to do but he's shown some power and patience. Palacios could've been on the HM list this month after advancing to A+. The young prospects are showing promise. The list shows Badoo, Miranda, Javier and Lewis all doing well as teenagers. Gore and Rooker have moved up after less than 100 AB and Bechtold should follow if there is room at Cedar Rapids. I think this group's performance bodes well for the Twins. We'd all like the Twins to have a couple more hitters at AA and AAA who are top-100 prospects. But the stats for the players who are in the organization look pretty good.

Might be time for Bechtold to move up - he's hitting .365/.443/.568. Cedar Rapids already has Blankenhorn and Cabbage. Maybe to Fort Myers? Any opinions from those who have seen him play?

Best wishes to Brandon Kintzler... Thanks for the saves!

They might be more interested in Escobar to fill in at 2B and SS.

My guess is that he's AAA insurance for a Garver callup. There is an outside chance the Twins are putting together another trade that involves Garver but I'd be surprised if that happened.

Whitefield is pretty good for a softball player. Seriously, he looks really athletic and his stats are solid. A dark-horse prospect?

Nice to see a big debate about going after a very good/excellent SP with top prospects. The team is finally getting better. Gordon has to be on the table to get the talent and control the Twins need in a SP. The bigger question is: Are the Twins willing to include Kepler and Gordon (+ others) in a trade to get one of the top four mentioned? I'd say yes to Archer, who is under control through 2021. I've been assuming in previous TD posts that the Twins won't go that big - but I'd like to see them try.