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dbminn

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Everything posted by dbminn

  1. dbminn
    My dark horse for a Dozier trade is the New York Yankees. If they are playing well the first half and Castro is struggling, I could see Cashman kicking the tires. They have plenty of prospects to make a trade. Phenom Gleyber Torres hasn't played above A+ and is probably at least one more year away. This trade isn't likely but it's not completely out of the realm of possibility.
  2. dbminn
    My bad on the citation. I took no sides on the articles.
  3. dbminn
    Dave Cameron of FanGraphs has now published a piece that counters the "Forsythe is basically Dozier" article by Zimmerman. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-dodgers-decision-to-be-intentionally-inefficient/
  4. dbminn
    There is risk to keeping Dozier but not near as much as putting all of his value on a single prospect. I'd still rather trade Dozier if the price is right. But all is not lost if the Twins walk away from a poor deal.
  5. dbminn
    A lot of good comments re: development, pitching, big moves etc... Another way to emulate the WS teams is to improve the defense. The Cubs were the best defensive team in the majors this year. Cleveland was the best defensive team in the AL (9th overall).They graded out at 175 and 85 runs better than the Twins. Upgrading defense will immediately improve the team and give needed support to the pitching staff. At SS, the Cubs and Cleveland graded between 30 and 40 runs better than the Twins on defense. I'd like to see the Twins get a solid defensive SS to bridge the gap until Gordon arrives. (Trade Dozier, Polanco to 2nd base) In the OF, the Twins were -30 runs to Cleveland and -80 to the Cubs. In this case, improve the defense by subtraction. Grossman caused the most damage (-20 in 99 games). Release him and pick up a defensively competent 4th OF to fill the gap until the next prospect arrives. Otherwise, let the youngsters play. Finally, acquire a veteran defensive catcher. Garver, Centeno and Murphy can battle for the backup (or co-starter) spot to start the season.
  6. dbminn
    Fine article, Thrylos. I would disagree on only a few moves, mostly based on maximizing value. I wouldn't move Gibson at his point of lowest value. There is little risk to keeping him until at least mid-season, especially since you have opened 16(!) spots on the 40-man roster. Trading Santana would depend on a premium return. I think there is value to keeping a solid veteran pitcher while the youngsters develop. Vargas or Walker could be included in a trade package to improve the return. Same for Duffey or Mejia, if the trade package brought the Twins a high-ceiling starter.
  7. dbminn
    His peak seven years were as a catcher, as is 90+% of his total WAR. Is that enough to define him as a catcher? I think so but others may agree with you.
  8. dbminn
    One method used to determine if a player is HOF-worthy is the "JAWS" system created by Jay Jaffe. It looks at both career WAR and 7-Year Peak WAR. There are 14 catchers in the HOF. Mauer is ranked 11th all-time in career bWAR and 5th all-time in 7-year peak bWAR. (JAWS uses Baseball Reference, not Fangraphs) By these numbers, Mauer should get into the Hall. Arguments against him include lack of championships, down years late in the career, and not playing in New York, LA or Boston. I'd vote for him.
  9. dbminn
    It's great to see the prospects starting to reach their potential. I'm optimistic Sano will report a different player next year, partially because some of his peers have (temporarily) passed him by. There will still be some ups and downs, but the bottom has been left behind as far as hitting is concerned. Hopefully, the starting pitchers will start to catch up with the position players in the next year. At least they will have some options: Santana, Gibson, Berrios and Rodriguez likely make up the front four. Mejia, Duffey, Wheeler or May could be fifth to start the season. I wouldn't rule out Gonsalves after the all-star break. I don't think the pitching outlook is as bleak as most think. Of course, a big trade for a high-upside SP wouldn't hurt. The Twins have enough depth to trade position players from either the MLB club or the farm system. Along with pitching, I'd like to see them pick up a SS who plays excellent defense.
  10. dbminn
    Gonsalves must've had an incredible day charting pitches
  11. dbminn
    There is still a lot to like with the Twins MiLB prospects.
  12. dbminn
    I've said for the past year, the team will be good once the prospects figure it out. They're closer now and they're still young. There's depth at every position except C,SS and SP. If you don't want to enjoy the ups and downs with this team from here on out, it's your problem.
  13. dbminn
    True, spycake. Having Susac also gives the Brewers negotiating flexibility and leverage with any potential Lucroy trade partners right now. They don't look nearly as desperate, now that they have a mlb-ready C. They also don't need to get a C in return - should open up negotiations.
  14. dbminn
    Nice article, Thrylos. Pretty clear the Twins had drafts somewhere between bad and horrible in 2008, 2010 and 2011. (Rosario still has a chance to make the 2010 draft look a bit better). I don't think WAR is a good evaluator from 2012-present. By WAR, only 9% of the cumulative average value in Thrylos' chart has come from players drafted beginning in 2012. The Twins will soon have five players from the 2012 draft on their roster (Chargois being the last of the five). All have a chance to contribute in the coming years. We can't say either way at this point whether that draft was a failure.
  15. dbminn
    I was talking shutdowns to meltdowns (percentage), which does not depend on number of opportunities. My observation stands on that metric. Yes, WPA depends on opportunity and leverage. He still doesn't match up to Britton and others over the last two seasons. The original comment was meant to tweak folks about the myth of the closer. Chapman has great stuff and the Cubs need that to win this year. And he's a proven closer. I just had to respond to righteous indignance.
  16. dbminn
    Yeah, he strikes out a lot of people. He's up on the list but others have been more dominant. Britton, Jansen, Familia, Harris, Davis have all had better SD/MD ratios and WPA this year. Over the past two years, add Ziegler, Cody Allen and Kimbrel to the others. If you want to say all of these relievers are dominant, fine. He's currently at the end of the list. Even Hector Rondon of the Cubs ranks higher in these categories over the last two seasons. Chapman is more proven and will close. As for Chapman, I think he throws hard and he's an established closer. He also has shot more holes in the roof of his garage than any other reliever on this list.
  17. dbminn
    Chapman could become one of the most dominating RP in the game. He hasn't yet, not by any metric either last year or this year: ERA, FIP, WAR, WPA, Shutdown/Meltdown %. As of now, he's a proven closer - not the most dominant.
  18. dbminn
    Seems the Cubs believe in the myth of a "proven closer".
  19. dbminn
    Ryan left some other parting gifts that have to be intriguing (I liked the earlier use of this word) to any prospective GM: A young, talented OF that's ready to stick in the majorsA bunch of power hittersSome veteran pieces to trade, more than a few still under controlA budget that will have increased flexibility each year moving forwardMinor league talent and depth, both for trades and developmentThe problem is, the Pohlads have been left to deliver the parting gifts. Otherwise, I think anyone in the potential GM pool would be excited to take the job.
  20. dbminn
    To me, tanking means dumping productive veterans to ensure draft picks. There is no reason to "tank'. I would only trade/DFA players that are unproductive and/or blocking prospects (Nolasco, Plouffe, Millone, D. Santana). There are only three players who could legitimately be on the Twins roster right now: Berrios, Chargois and Polanco. There's room for the pitchers without dumping productive players. Polanco can be called up in September. Be patient trading productive veterans and get good value for them (E. Santana, Dozier, Nunez/Escobar, Suzuki, Grossman). There is no catcher to replace Suzuki this year and Grossman is a better fit for part-time OF than any prospect. Dozier is the team leader, a productive player and he has a reasonable contract. All of these players require some value in return. They can remain at least until the offseason. Santana and Nunez are the best options for a meaningful deadline trade. The current starting OF averages 23 years old. Add Sano (23), Vargas (25) and Escobar (27) and you already have a really young lineup. Baseball is more craft than art. I'd rather see a few productive veterans on the club while these youngsters develop. Polanco, Palka, Hildenberger, Wheeler and Beresford can all get some MLB time in September.
  21. dbminn
    Some of the younger hitters are putting up nice stats. Lamonte Wade looks really good at the plate from the video I've seen of him. Kirilloff and Jaylin Davis seem to be taking to pro ball. And what's the word on Arraez? Is he a serious prospect?
  22. dbminn
    Great article, Seth. "It's Time!" is a fitting title for both the minor league prospects and also for the young players settling in with the Twins. Amidst all the woulda/coulda/shoulda of the past and speculation about the future, there are some good things happening right now. The Twins hit rock bottom on June 25th at 23-51. Since then, they've managed a reasonable 12-8 record. They're winning with better pitching as well as hot hitting by Suzuki and Dozier. But the best thing happening is the performance of the youngsters. Since returning to the bigs: Vargas .344/.462/.813 (recalled July 4th) Kepler .232/.306/.483 (recalled June 1st) Rosario .357/.364/.571 (recalled July 3rd) Sano .268/.359/.482 (returned from DL July 1st) Small sample size, but it looks like it's time for them to get established. I've really enjoyed watching them develop since their return. I'm ready for Berrios and Chargois to join them in the very near future.
  23. dbminn
    Radke as a development model ended 3-4 years ago. Twins have plenty of strikeout pitchers moving through the system, both as relievers and starters. Berrios, Jay and Gonzalez are all younger than the average starter in their respective leagues. Each has given up plenty of walks along the way. Duffey is in the rotation while learning how to control his fastball. He keeps his spot because he has a bona fide strikeout pitch. I believe he will improve but there will be some more ugly starts before he settles in. Meyer has been stuck in AAA because his control has been awful. There is a point where control has to be the focus. He was much better in limited time this year at AAA. Too bad he's injured again. Berrios and Chargois got a cup of coffee with the Twins. They looked like deer in headlights. They're getting a bit more seasoning in AAA but both will be back in the near future. The Twins have some pitchers who still look like Radke. All MiLB organizations have them. They are not the top prospects because the Twins have moved their philosophy out of the stone age.
  24. dbminn
    Nice article. I would replace Clay with Palka. Let's see how he manages the off-speed stuff from AAAA-type pitchers.
  25. dbminn
    A great day for the Twins' top pitching prospects. Hopefully, Berrios is up by the end of July. What is the expected innings limit for Jay this year?
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