-
Posts
1,033 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
News
Minnesota Twins Videos
2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking
2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks
Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks
The Minnesota Twins Players Project
2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks
2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by dbminn
-
Eddie Rosario has found his inner Joe Mauer - 4 BB in 5 games! Seriously, looks like he's putting in his work.
- 17 replies
-
- kennys vargas
- felix jorge
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Article: Eddie Rosario Is Raking In Rochester
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You forgot one thing - they did a lousy job of selecting/signing players the last 10 years, at least until they moved to the top of the draft order (and Smith signed some decent international players). I think that's been even a bigger problem. There are more than enough reasons to complain about the Twins. I just don't think the development of the position prospects has been unusual given their age, injuries and experience. It just hurts more when the team has been awful. -
Article: Eddie Rosario Is Raking In Rochester
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I looked at current age on FanGraphs and how many relatively young players are on the leaderboard. Didn't want to get into how many players per year make it, just the most recent ones. Checked those who are peers or just ahead of the current crop of Twins. I should've used the word "recent" in my original comment. The argument still holds - most players need a significant number of PA at AA or above (including MLB) to get to their potential. Nearly all of the time, that means they're at least 24. Stanton is showing he still has growing pains. He hasn't hit a lick: .194/.303/.418. Probably has some residual fear from his terrible injury. -
Article: Eddie Rosario Is Raking In Rochester
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Please reread the post - I said "position players". The thread is about Rosario and if he should be starting with the Twins. And yes, Bryant should be included. Now we're at 5 in 400. Doesn't change much. Franco is playing well in Philly but he had about 1000 AA/AAA PA too. Cherry picking? Provide some real support for your argument. Buxton missed a year of playing time and is 22 years old. He will develop to be at least a very good and probably an excellent ballplayer. He just needs some more experience. -
Article: Eddie Rosario Is Raking In Rochester
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It is very rare that players hit well before 24 years old. Machado and Bogaerts stuck because of their gloves. It took them at least 1000 PA at high minors and MLB to start hitting. Harper, Trout and now Lindor and Betts are the exceptions. That's four out of out of 400 MLB position players. Kepler, Sano and Buxton have all missed more than a year of MiLB experience due to injuries. Sano has been fine, Buxton is taking the route of Machado and Bogaerts and Kepler needs time. Nothing unusual. -
Article: Eddie Rosario Is Raking In Rochester
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Grossman has earned his starting role. He's 26 years old, has had more than 1500 PA at AAA and a .379 OBP throughout the minor league career. This year, he's successfully worked on increasing his power at both AAA and the majors. He should start unless he goes cold for a month. Buxton was sent back to the minors to work on his timing and aggressiveness. He showed progress and was recalled to the Twins. His OPS has been a tick over .700 since his return. He's made enough progress to keep his spot, at least for the next month. Kepler has shown flickers of what could be a bright future. He still looks outmanned at the plate and will be sent down to make room for Sano, at least until Plouffe is (hopefully) traded. I'm sure he'll be given specific tasks to work on at Rochester. He's 23 and has had less than 150 AAA PA. Rosario is 23 years old and has a ton of talent. He was sent back to AAA because MLB pitchers now realize he has no concept of the strike zone. Doesn't really matter what he hits at Rochester - he won't hit in the majors until he learns to lay off bad pitches. Give him time at AAA to figure it out. He's young and has a chance to be a big part of the future. Out of the four OF, Grossman is the only one with experience. The other three are more gifted but none are fully developed. It's going to take time and work but I'm confident all three will be fine major leaguers. For now, they are still prospects. -
Nunez has value - he's a professional hitter who plays multiple positions. As a part-time player for most of his time with the Twins, his stats are: 626 PA .287/.315/.447 29 SB/40 ATT 2.7 WAR For 2015-2016: 413 PA .307/.339/.482 13 HR 20 SB/28 ATT 2.6 WAR (or 3.8 WAR/600 PA) Nunez turns 29 next week, and he's playing for $1.5 million. I'd look to trade him near the deadline but I wouldn't give him away. I expect a contender with IF injury issues will be interested enough to send the Twins a low top-100 prospect or a very good minor league reliever. As a fan, I wouldn't sell his talent short - he's been getting better since he arrived. (Note: His BABIP is inflated this year but was well below what should be expected from a fast runner in 2014. Of course, maybe he's just made better contact the last two years)
-
Article: Are The 2016 Twins A Young Team?
dbminn replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
By position player performance, the Twins are still a veteran team. Here are the slash lines by age grouping: 30+ .259/.330/.380 255 PA 26-29 .260/.320/.413 400 PA <=25 .204/.264/.330 455 PA The best hitters, by "weighted runs created" (WRC+, 100 = average) are: >26 Nunez (147), Park (132), Mauer (130), Plouffe (108) <=25 Arcia (118), Sano (98) The worst hitters are Suzuki, Escobar and every youngster not named Sano. The Twins aren't quite ready to be a "young team". I'd say the Twins are in transition, getting younger as the season progresses. The OF will get younger once Buxton and Kepler prove they're ready. Centeno's playing time will increase if he proves he can handle it. Nunez, Plouffe and Dozier should be on the trading block. They can be replaced by younger players (Sano, Polanco, Beresford). But trade them for a decent return. Dumping veterans under control would be incredibly stupid. Even with limited trades, the starting position players should be 26 by the end of the year. Duffey and Berrios should stay in the rotation. The weighted average age of the rotation will decline quite a bit with these two getting regular starts. Move Hughes to the bullpen once Gibson returns (or DL if he has a chronic injury). Let Nolasco continue to start. Someone will take him before the trading deadline. His contract isn't unreasonable if he can prove to be an innings eater. The average rotation age should be 27 or less by the end of the year. The bullpen is a disaster. May, Abad and Pressley will be okay. Maybe Rogers will work out. Hopefully, the Twins bring up some of the youngsters as the season progresses. This is the panic zone.- 31 replies
-
- joe mauer
- byron buxton
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Article: Twins Being Overwhelmed By Underperformance
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
IMO, the issues are with the youngsters: The prospects aren't ready to play in the majors (Buxton, Kepler, the relievers)Rosario and Murphy need more AAA at batsArcia and Sano are still learning the gamePolanco and Santana need experienceDuffey and Berrios are just beginning their MLB careersAll of these players need time. It sucks that they're not ready, but they are not flops or failures. Santana, Duffey, Arcia and Murphy are 25 years old. The rest are younger. They will all get better. Until that happens, the Twins will be bad. It will get a bit better when Gibson and Erv are healthy and the rust is knocked off. Also - Why no love for Nunez? He's been a bright spot. Hopefully, he continues to play well and is traded for a prospect. -
Blame Ryan and Molitor? Sure. Fire them? I won't be upset. Doesn't matter in 2016. The main problem is the young Twins players haven't yet reached their potential as MLB players. Buxton, Polanco and Kepler are where they should be: AAA. Murphy needs a trip to AAA. Arcia and Santana are still figuring it out. Sano is still learning to adjust. All of the relief prospects have suffered injuries at some point. Duffey and Berrios are ready for the big leagues but just starting their careers. I'm all for trading our veterans between now and next season. Plouffe, Dozier, Nunez, Gibson, Arcia and Nolasco all have or will have trade value. Just don't dump them because fans want to "freshen up" the team. The youth movement can't fully start until the youth are ready to win in the big leagues.
- 124 replies
-
- paul molitor
- jim pohlad
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
Sabernerds have been using two different WAR calculations as a first-cut for HOF status: Lifetime WAR and 7-Year WAR (seven best consecutive years). Mauer has the fifth largest 7-year WAR for catchers and has already accumulated a career catcher WAR that is comparable to the HOF class. Add in his batting titles, MVP and gold gloves and it looks like he should have a pretty good chance to get in. Not likely on the first ballot. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_C.shtml
-
Park Set as Twins' Opening Day DH - Or Is He?
dbminn commented on Steven Buhr's blog entry in SD Buhr/Jim Crikket
Baseball Rebellion has posted a too-long video analysis of Park's swing. Looks pretty good when he's hitting KBO pitches. A fun video to skim through. (I agree with this author that it doesn't necessarily mean Park will be ready in April) http://baseballrebellion.com/gabedimock/swing-breakdown-byung-ho-park/ -
Article: Is The Twins System Broken?
dbminn replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Entering 2016, the Twins have plenty of positions that need improvement. The rotation is average at best. There are too many players available for 3B and, at least to start the season, not enough competent OF. A veteran RP would be nice. The young players have yet to reach their prime or, in some cases, show their worth. There has been almost no attempt to improve the roster because Ryan doesn't wheel and deal. He has no desire to make big trades. I would like to see a different GM at the end of the season, someone who is willing and able to make the moves necessary to compete at the highest level. (Actually, I would've liked to have seen a new GM last year) But is the FO broke? Hardly. The Twins record improved by 13 wins last year. They have a top-five prospect list. There is system depth at almost every position. Ryan acquired a C, a position where depth was an issue. He convinced the Pohlads to take a flyer on a Korean power hitter. The greatest outrages are Sano's move to the OF (a legit argument, IMO) and the need for a fourth RP (a lot of angst for maybe 0.5 WAR improvement). The Twins are not a pile of disparate pieces. Like it or not, Ryan has a clear plan to build from within. Whether it will result in a World Series win is an open question. It will probably be one more year before the Twins are even ready to compete for the division. Under a best case, a different GM could have made a couple of moves to improve chances this year - at some risk. So what? It's time for Spring Training. We have an interesting roster taking to the fields. A time to set a little bit of cynicism aside and enjoy a young team with a lot of potential. We'll get the chance to see several young power arms arrive to help the bullpen this year. Berrios will arrive. Plenty of young position players will be worth watching as they develop in 2016. I'm excited for the season, the chance to see these youngsters take the field. Why? Because the FO is not broke. The Twins are a team on the rise. Let Cincinnati bring out the pitchforks for their FO.- 119 replies
-
- terry ryan
- aaron hicks
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Article: Dreaming Of 200 Home Runs
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree that the slash line is optimistic. I think there's a chance at 1B and DH. Steamer projections are more optimistic than both of us. Here's their best guess for 2016 OPS: Mauer (.745), Park (.806), Arcia (.772), Vargas (.750). Wow - didn't expect that.- 71 replies
-
- miguel sano
- byungho park
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
Article: Dreaming Of 200 Home Runs
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'd take 170 HR... Just give me a .260/.325/.420 slash line.- 71 replies
-
- miguel sano
- byungho park
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
What Must Happen For Twins In Florida?
dbminn commented on Ted Schwerzler 's blog entry in Off The Baggy
"Health above everything". Agreed. Especially the young players. Buxton looking comfortable at the plate is second biggest issue for me. -
Article: Charting The Competition: Chicago White Sox
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins will have a better record than the White Sox in 2016. How much better will depend on the performance of the youngsters. -
Article: Charting The Competition: Chicago White Sox
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
White Sox roster still has a lot of holes: Cabrera, LaRoche, whoever they put at shortstop, back end of the rotation, front end of the bullpen. I'll take the Twins moving forward without a second thought. The depth and upside of their system is far superior to both the Sox and the Tigers. The only problem is, it may be 2017 before we see the difference. -
Article: Position Battle: The Bullpen
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The back end of the bullpen will be decent. Perkins, Fien and Jepsen all have a solid history of Shutdowns to Meltdowns. The rest of the pen looks better than the beginning of last season. Sadly, "better" won't be enough for a postseason run. To truly compete, at least one prospect will have to perform at a high level. The Twins have plenty of prospects and I expect we will see several of them this year. Hopefully, one comes through. Like with the everyday lineup, the Twins are committed to the long term. I would've traded Plouffe in a deal that included a LHRP to give them a better chance this year. TR didn't listen. Too bad, because all of my imaginary deals outperform the Twins FO.- 93 replies
-
- fernando abad
- ricky nolasco
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
Article: Position Battle: 4th & 5th Starters
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins have more rotation depth than every team in the AL Central. Steamer projections at Fangraphs show seven pitchers with the potential to be at least "average" (2 WAR) with 200 IP, not including Trevor May. While the Indians and White Sox each have a front three that blow the Twins away in terms of projections, they have no depth. They will be more vulnerable to injuries than the Twins and both will have to scramble to win two of every five games. I'd love to have a Sale or Kluber at the front of the Twins rotation. Still, the Twins SP looks a lot better than a couple of years ago because of their depth. I believe Milone will be #4 and the last spot will be a Spring Training fight between Nolasco and Duffey. Nolasco will get the benefit of the doubt but it is not guaranteed. Berrios will not break camp with the Twins unless there are injuries. An extra year at age 28 is much more valuable than a few weeks this season by any measure of risk you want to use given the number of young players that will be on the team.- 101 replies
-
- ervin santana
- phil hughes
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
Article: 5 Reasons To Be Excited About 2016
dbminn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
One reason to be excited about Twins Daily in 2016: Spring Training is going to be incredibly controversial. Bullpen prospects will get a good look, the Arcia/Vargas competition, a clogged rotation, Sano in the OF, Joe Mauer... Should make for a lot of commentary.- 32 replies
-
- byungho park
- miguel sano
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Finding 2016's Twins Breakout Prospect
dbminn commented on Cody Christie's blog entry in North Dakota Twins Fan
Cody, I like your list. I would probably rank Kohl Stewart lower than all of the others listed. ExpectMore, I hope you're right about ABW II. I will contribute two names: Nick Burdi and Mitch Garver. I think Burdi has a good chance of reaching the majors this year based on his improved mechanics in the AFL. Garver is my long-odds choice for a breakout season with the bat. -
Article: Five Hitters Deserving Of Your Attention
dbminn replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The hitch in Arcia's swing is monumental. His head moves all over the place. I don't even love to hate to love that swing anymore. I hope all of Wade's swings look so good. And Kepler... wow.- 23 replies
-
- minnesota twins
- max kepler
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Article: Drafting College Relievers
dbminn replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
About 70 percent of pitchers who ranked as Top 50-100 Prospects gave their major league teams less than 3.0 WAR total during their 6 years under control according to this research: http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/how-much-an-mlb-prospect-is-worth-updated-trade-surplus-values/ Gibson and Duffey have been reasonably successful and should end up contributing well above average WAR while under control. Too early to tell about Burdi, Reed, Cederoth, Williams, Jay and others drafted in recent years. RE: RP and aging. I have a real problem with the aging curves put together by FanGraphs. A lot of RP have one good year in middle relief, get a couple more years to prove themselves but can't continue to develop. Instead, look at last year's top 30 RP, either by WAR or WPA (preferred, IMO). Average age was 28.6 years old. Only Ken Giles was under 25 for WPA. Add Osuna at 20 years old if you prefer WAR. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=c,4,5,11,7,8,13,-1,36,37,40,43,44,48,51,-1,6,45,62,-1,59,63,3&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d- 57 replies
-
- tyler duffey
- tyler jay
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Article: Shields For Nolasco: Would You Do It?
dbminn replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You pose a fine alternative. I would actually rather see the Twins move in your direction (I would add Span to the list of possible OF). I posted this scenario just to get some discussion other than Nolasco for Shields, which is a non-starter. But to further the debate, I don't think it's such a crazy trade. First, I agree the Twins would be taking a risk, just not as doom and gloom as your assessment. Upton was a 110 WRC+ last year and he's a good defender (1.6 WAR in 228 PA - equals a little less than 4 WAR for 600 PA). Shields is a risk but I see a pitcher who tried to do too much last year (High BB, K and HR). FanGraphs has him for 3 WAR this year. The Twins have players well above replacement value to play 3B and middle infield. They don't have a full OF unless everything turns up roses.- 108 replies
-
- ricky nolasco
- james shields
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:

