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dbminn

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Everything posted by dbminn

  1. dbminn
    "For both Vargas and the Twins, salvaging whatever is possible in the shortest timeline has to be the goal." I completely disagree. This is exactly not the goal. Vargas is 24 years old and, as Hosken says, could still have a long major league career ahead of him. Let him work through his issues until he's ready to consistently hit major league pitching. In the meantime, Sano gets an opportunity. Arcia is 10 months younger than Vargas. We need to be patient with him as well. I am optimistic about Arcia's future with the bat but he needs to get better in the field. Rosario is a better fit right now, with Torii in RF. There is good news to the situation: Vargas and Arcia have been replaced by prospects. The next year will bring more shuffling between the show and the minors as all of the young players get a chance.
  2. dbminn
    Consistently decent starting pitching has made the Twins fun to watch. Most games are competitive. Prospects are starting to appear. They even have a chance at a wild card entry into the playoffs. It's good to be a Twins fan again. I agree with the poster: The Twins are in the middle of rebuilding and moves should not sacrifice the future. Given the quality of available prospects, they could win a WC slot through call-ups. OTOH, I would be willing to trade veterans like Plouffe, Nunez, Escobar or Pelfrey at the deadline, even if the Twins are in the WC hunt. Plouffe or Pelfrey should only be traded if the Twins get substantial long-term value in return (using the stern vernacular of others at this site: "AND IT'S A BIG IF!") . Substantial includes a near-ready MLB catcher. Some argue that we have to do what's necessary to slip into a wild card slot this year. "You never know when you'll get another chance" is the mantra. I don't agree. Teams that build a strong core from within get multiple chances and they don't settle for the wild card.
  3. dbminn
    Fine article. Not mentioned are a few points I consider key parts of Molitor's success: Teaching situational awareness (base running, hitting the cutoff man, shifting, etc) as much as implementing the system. Raising young players' confidence. In just the past week, Molitor has sat down with Vargas and told him not to worry about getting sent down. He also moved Buxton to leadoff even as Buxton looked overmatched in his first eight games. I don't think Gardenhire would've done the same. Hiring a fine pitching coach. Neil Allen has stressed the development and use of off-speed pitches. As with Molitor, Allen seems to be a teacher as much as a coach.
  4. dbminn
    K-rates pretty much lines up with age/experience.
  5. dbminn
    The next couple of years are going to be interesting, to say the least. I like the idea that no one will be given a position in the outfield - they'll have to earn it! As of right now, looks like a 2016 outfield of Rosario in LF/Buxton in CF. Kepler could be the one to move Hicks from RF to 4th OF. Arcia is still an option for RF, for the same reasons given by others: young, powerful, and left-handed. And ABW will eventually be in the mix... I hope TR is patient and doesn't trade any of the prospects until the picture gets a bit clearer.
  6. dbminn
    Seems like single inning set-up reliever should be Meyer's first job in the majors. I don't mind that they are giving him extended relief innings in AAA. Forces him to use all of his pitches. There shouldn't be any transition problems between long relief in AAA and short relief in the majors. Still needs to get his BB rate down.
  7. dbminn
    "It was fun to watch Santana's performance last season but his time might have already be run out in Minnesota." Cody, I agree that Polanco looks like he's moved up the pecking order. I would not say the Santana's time in Minnesota has run out. He's 24 years old. He was improving defensively as the season wore on. He doesn't look like the long-term solution right now but he has time to improve.
  8. dbminn
    Re: contact management skills. Great article by Jesse Lund on Pelfrey's improved performance: http://www.twinkietown.com/2015/6/11/8768669/charting-the-improvements-of-mike-palfrey
  9. dbminn
    Great article. The Twins starters are better this year as a group. Hughes has scuffled a bit but is picking it up. May is learning each time out. Pelfrey and Gibson have been very good. xFIP is not a good measurement for ground ball pitchers like Gibson and Pelfrey. For example, xFIP believes that Ricky Nolasco and Trevor May are the best Twins starters this year. Debatable. Ground balls are associated with a much lower OPS than fly balls and line drives. A higher ground ball percentage should also result in more double plays. Gibson and Pelfrey have induced 27 DP, while the other four starters have 12. Not a coincidence. Pitching performance is affected by how hard balls are hit and by ground ball percentage. Tony Blengino at Fangraphs has been running a series on "contact quality" this year. He says, "Contact management is really, really important. To be a truly great starter in the big leagues today, it’s not enough to simply miss a ton of bats and minimize walks. Unless one does both to a prodigious extent, like [David] Price, at least one core contact-management skill is required to propel you to the elite level." http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/contact-quality-just-a-part-of-the-puzzle-2014-al-pitchers/
  10. dbminn
    Nice article. I too am not "buying" the Twins to make the playoffs this year - at least at retail prices. Still, there are many things about the Twins I am buying: Four major league pitchers who provide quality startsA second baseman emerging as an All-Star caliber playerAn aging outfielder lighting a fire under the rest of the teamA lockdown closerA boatload of talented young players who will progress to the majors this year and nextFor these reasons, the Twins are worth watching now, with hope for better years ahead. And here's the kicker: The Twins still have a 23.5% chance of making the playoffs this year (according to the all-knowing FanGraphs). At 4 to 1 odds? I'm buying. And who would've thought that at start of the year?
  11. dbminn
    I would like to see the Twins add a catcher, but I'd rather spend prospects to get Susac from the Giants.
  12. dbminn
    What is the scouting report on Danny Ortiz? He's never mentioned in any prospect evaluations but seems to be progressing through the system. Does he have a chance to make a big league club at some point?
  13. dbminn
    Kepler has kept his strikeouts very low. A refreshing concept.
  14. dbminn
    The relievers who appear when the Twins are in a close game have been excellent by the "one true outcome" - team wins. I believe that last night's loss to Toronto was the second time the Twins failed to hold a lead after the 6th inning. As long as they win, the top of the bullpen will stay the same. Can the relievers who have appeared in close games sustain their excellence? Other than Perkins, probably not.The Twins will adjust as the season progresses and Boyer and Thompson falter. As it should be. Many of the current crop of "mop-up" relievers will be the first to go. I would have no problem moving Stauffer and Duensing right now and bringing up some younger blood.
  15. dbminn
    Sabermetrics can be very powerful when properly applied to the analysis. The most common tools are averaged outcomes for discrete at-bats, such as OBP and SLG. As shown above, these tools indicate that the Twins are "playing above their heads". In this case, a couple of particular average outcomes are not the best analytical tools because the data is too stratified. Here are two examples that skew the averaged data: The Twins were outscored 45-16 in the first seven games of the season. The average runs per game is still skewed by this incredibly horrible start.Duensing and Stauffer have been responsible for 19 runs in 19 innings. In every case (except for the first week), they have pitched when the Twins are far ahead or behind. I don't have the time to grind out the numbers, but refining the dataset for these two issues reduces the differential between game outcomes and play-by-play performance: The underlying runs per game averages are not so different from performance after the first week.Our top-line relievers are performing well and in accordance with the team's record.The end of our bullpen is awful.I do agree that the aggregate individual performances indicate that: Team hitting has been unsustainably "clutch". Ricky Nolasco has been unsustainably "lucky". I fully agree that the Twins are not a 93-win team but they are sustainably average or a little better.
  16. dbminn
    After four years of home-team horrors, it is fun to watch the Twins again. Three keys: The starting rotation has provided a decent proportion of quality starts. I no longer cringe when our outfielders have to make a play.Generally smart, aggressive base running.This is a flawed team with a bright future. Prospects at nearly every position, potential trade chips and a solid corps at the major league level. There will be another year of growing pains as the youngsters gain experience, but from here on out, I'm going to enjoy the ride.
  17. dbminn
    Max Kepler is off to an amazing start at AA, hitting for power and average. He hasn't walked very much (6.5% of PA) but has struck out at a very low rate (8.3%). Must be seeing the ball awfully well. Would like to hear from those who watch the Lookouts play on a regular basis. What has caused all of the success? Has he changed his approach or is he just maturing?
  18. dbminn
    I agree with Shane - let Polanco climb through all of the minor league levels. He can fight for SS with Santana next year. I'd rather see the Twins let players develop where they have the luxury of multiple players at a position (absent an injury).
  19. dbminn
    Aaron Hicks is only 25 years old, young enough to learn to be a decent major league hitter. He has shown he can hit AAA pitching. Hicks now needs at-bats to prove his worth in the majors, for better or worse. Where I disagree is the fielding ability of Hicks. He has been awful during his first to attempts at the major league level. On the other hand, Robinson has been excellent in the field. Hicks should not get at-bats if he can't field any better than his last two tries with the Twins. Developing players at the major-league level has to be done in the context of the team. Our young pitchers (starters and relievers) are all affected by defense. Let's give them a chance to succeed as well. With Arcia and Hunter at the corners, it's critical that the CF be able to field his position with range and consistency. If Hicks plays poor defense, DFA him and let Rosario have a spot on the roster. If his defense is solid the first few weeks, give him time to develop his offense.
  20. dbminn
    I fully agree that 24 innings are not enough to know if Pelfrey is going to be an effective starter throughout the year. That said, there are a couple of statistics that I will be watching in his next outings: Pitch Performance (f/x data) Fastball vs. Sinker and Splitter %: 49.8/29.2 (Career) vs. 23.1/56.0 (Current) Splitter Velocity: 84.4/81.8 mph Pelf is using his 4-seam fastball less, relying more on pitches kept down in the zone. He's also added 3 mph of difference between FB and SF velocity. That may not sound like a big change but I suspect the stat has had an effect on recent results: Outcomes (Current/Career) Line Drive Percentage (LD%): 12.7% / 20.2% Ground Ball Percentage (GB%): 57.7% / 47.9% GB% is a rough indicator of effectiveness for pitchers who work down in the zone. Fangraphs always cautions that ball-in-play data contains a lot of "noise". However, they also state that BIP noise is not all "luck", especially for control pitchers. Finally, Pelfrey has changed both pitch selection and velocity difference. I'm interested to see if he "regresses to the mean" or if he has made actual improvements.
  21. dbminn
    Put a short leash on bullpen depth. We have AAA relievers who are ready to go. Hicks is no solution in CF, at least until he proves he can field the position. He's been as bad in the field as he's been at the plate the past two years. We probably have to let Shafer play until Rosario or Buxton is ready to take the spot. Let the current rotation pitch for a while. Only Pelfrey should have a short leash. The problem here is long term. Two aging starters, mediocre at best, clogging the rotation for years to come. Otherwise, we're stuck until the AA prospects are ready. They should not be brought up before their time. Some may arrive in the next two months, some late in the season. Fan anguish on April 16th isn't a good reason to bring them up now. I'm more interested in the next few months: We have too many good hit / no field players in the pipeline (Sano, Walker, Harrison). Trade either Vargas or Pinto if the price is right. Trade Suzuki as contending teams inevitably lose their starting catchers. Let Fryer, a good defensive catcher, have a chance to start. Let's pray that Nolasco comes back and pitches well enough to be traded, even if the Twins have to eat a chunk of the contract and get nothing in return. Put Hunter on the bench if and when Rosario and Buxton arrive. Or, move Danny Santana back to the outfield if Polanco keeps lighting up AA.
  22. dbminn
    Chattanooga has an incredible AA roster and Rochester has fine AAA pitching staff. That being said, don't confuse potential with current ability. The combined team would be soundly defeated by the Twins...right now. Next year at this time, it should be a different story. This is the year when prospects separate from suspects, when call-ups will bring a bit of fun to a fifth year of 90 losses. The young guys will get their feet wet, ready to compete next year. You can say they're a year behind the Astros with call-ups but they are not a year behind in performance (the Astros won only 70 games as well). I say they are a year behind the Cubs. I expect spring training next year to have several dogfights for roster positions, just like happened in Chicago this year. And, like in Chicago, we will again find some hope for the future. So here's to a successful first half to Chattanooga's season. And a hopeful second half to all the players that move to AAA and the majors!
  23. dbminn
    Two issues: Platoon, the problem is not the Twins players who are dependable, it is those who are not. We were three starting pitchers short of a dependable rotation and two or three outfielders short of a dependable defense. That is why the Twins lost 90 games last year. The bigger concern for me is Ryan's vision of the team: Does he see a competitive team this year or one that is building for the near future? Moving Danny Santana to short looks to the future. Not acquiring a solid defensive centerfielder seems to be part of a long-term plan. Signing Ervin Santana, Duensing and Stauffer looks like a short-term program. PS - I actually view the one-year Hunter contract as part of the long-term plan because he can mentor two outfielders that don't play consistent defense and do not have enough quality at-bats. (Obviously, Arcia is farther along than Hicks but he still gives away too many swings, especially against quality pitching). Unlike Santana and Nolasco, Hunter will be done by the time the prospects are ready.
  24. dbminn
    A team needs players that can play multiple positions to compete. Polanco will add to the Twins positional flexibility, taking either 2B or SS . Santana should be used the same way. Here are a couple of lineups showing possible flexibility: Start of This Year: OF - Arcia, Santana/Hicks, Hunter IF - Plouffe, Escobar/Santana, Dozier, Mauer By Middle of Next Year: OF - Rosario/Santana, Buxton/Santana, Arcia IF - Plouffe/Sano, Polanco/Santana, Dozier/Polanco, Mauer Someone will either get injured, traded or not pan out as an everyday player. Letting Polanco and Santana play multiple positions will give the Twins needed depth and flexibility until everything is settled.
  25. dbminn
    Back spasms early in the season. Oblique injury early in July. It's no wonder Mauer had trouble pulling the ball. Mauer hit much better after he healed (125 WRC+ during the second half). Mauer had good seasons in 2012 and 2013. It's all a matter of health.
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