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dbminn

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Everything posted by dbminn

  1. dbminn
    Lynn would be #2 on my FA list. A very good SP with a solid resume. He was worked hard in 2017, the first year after TJ surgery. I'd be a nervous about more than four years. Spotrac estimates Lynn's worth at 4 yr/ $65M. That sounds too reasonable. IMO, someone will offer him a 5-year deal closer to $90M.
  2. dbminn
    My priorities would be Buxton and Rosario. They are my "best bets" for long and successful careers. I love Berrios but the injury risk for SP is pretty high. I'd give Buxton guaranteed money over a long-term contract. Load it with incentives for MVP, AS, GG, SS. Say, 6 yrs / $62 million, with a $2M buyout before FA (4 yr / $32 mil guaranteed at that point). I'll take the injury risk and put up with the coulda/woulda/shouldas if he misses a year. I want to see more consistent defense and base running with Rosario but his upside is extremely high. He's shown the desire to work on his game. I'd ask for the same contract structure as Buxton. Spotrac has Rosario as a 4-year Arb guy, so 7 years takes him through two years as FA: 7 yrs / $48M, $1M buyout before FA (5/$21M guaranteed). It's risky but the Twins need to take a few chances to build a long-term winner. Approach Berrios, Sano, Kepler and Polanco after the 2018 season. Health with Sano and injury risk for Berrios are the issues. There are other 2B/SS moving through the system so Polanco isn't a priority right now. Kepler still has to prove he can be an everyday player. These are difficult calls. IMO, sign them all over the next two years. Odds are good that 4 of 6 will be above-average to elite ballplayers. Better to spread the risk than try to pick the optimal signings. No FA years, less money. No team option, a lot less money.
  3. dbminn
    The coaching staff will be an interesting mix after they replace Allen. I'm not sure, but I think you can separate the coaches into separate camps: Strategy/Teaching - Falvine's group: Rowson, Pickler, New Pitching Coach In-Game/Relationships - Old School Twins: Molitor, Smith, Glynn, Guardado, Hernandez Other - Vavra Now that Allen is gone, the FO will control hitting/pitching philosophy throughout the organization. They will rely on Molitor to manage the players, media and relationships at the MLB level. All of this is speculation. Glynn and Smith provide help with defensive technique, so it's not a perfect fit. And I don't even know what role Vavra plays. Still, it makes sense that Allen's replacement was non-negotiable for Molitor.
  4. dbminn
    Congratulations to Molitor - he earned a new contract.
  5. dbminn
    I think the Twins need to trade for a #2 SP. They will have to give up Gonsalves or Romero as part of a trade. I would look at Tyler Chatwood to replace the traded prospect. He was really good outside of Coors Field (3.49 ERA). I don't have a strong opinion - just seems like an interesting option. Maybe trade for Gerrit Cole? Still has two years left before he's a free agent.
  6. dbminn
    What did you expect, a four run homer with no one on?
  7. dbminn
    Lame
  8. dbminn
    Thanks Twins!!
  9. dbminn
    MI: Rosario Rookie: Hildenberger POY: Santana MVP: Dozier Best left-handed hitting old guy who also fields really well: Joe Mauer Best player without a vote but is really amazing: Byron Buxton Twins Manager of the Year: Paul Molitor
  10. dbminn
    I have to add a shout-out to my #6 MVP not listed earlier: Eddie Rosario. Turned the corner at the plate. Someone could've made a lot of money betting he would strike out less than 20% this season. With power and speed, he's one of the most exciting hitters on the team. Not clutch and very inconsistent on the bases and in the field. All solvable problems. One of my favorite Twins.
  11. dbminn
    I'm limiting my MVP rankings to position players, partially because there are a lot of hitters to mention. One could argue that the Twins would've been below .500 without any of the five listed players. They all contributed to a fun summer of baseball: Brian Dozier - Leader of the position players, he set the tone for confidence and aggressiveness. Highest fWAR on the team (my preferred WAR stat for hitters). Byron Buxton - IMO, the best defensive CF ever to play for the Twins. More range than either Hunter or Puckett. Didn't let a terrible first half with the bat affect his fielding. Hit well after the break. MVP of the second half and will probably win this award the next three years. Joe Mauer - Welcome Back! Mauer was the most clutch hitter on the team as measured by performance with runners on base (RE24), where it wasn't even close, and by WRC+ in high leverage situations (173, tied with Grossman). His high leverage slash = .405/.540/.459, 50 PA. Consistent from May to October. GG defense. Miguel Sano - The Twins had no chance for the wild card without Miguel's April and May. Jorge Polanco - I was surprised by his terrible hitting slump. I was even more surprised by his power burst in the 2nd half (.297/.360/.518). He was incredible in high leverage situations after the break (.538/.586/.769, 32 PA). Played SS better than most expected.
  12. dbminn
    He took the first pitch, then hit a dribbler. Ran well to first. Looked like he limped a very little bit walking back to the dugout. All good. We were sitting behind home looking up the first base line.
  13. dbminn
    ​ With Gardenhire as Lovullo's bench coach
  14. dbminn
    Thanks for including the Molitor interview. I missed the post-game show.
  15. dbminn
    The Twins started the year with a few proven veterans and a lot of talented youngsters. By the time they start the 2018 season, they are going to have a team full of veterans with playoff experience. Nothing has come easy - several times they've looked down for the count. Each time, they've clawed their way back into contention. Twice, they've been roughed up at home by the Indians. They were routed by the Astros and Dodgers. But they've also swept the Indians, the D-Backs and the Brewers. The Twins have proven their resilience. Each of the core youngsters has been beat up along the way. Buxton, Polanco and now Kepler have endured horrible slumps. Berrios has been up and down. Sano hasn't been a factor in the stretch - first a slump and then an injury. Rosario has been the most consistent of them all (surprise!). They've experienced a lot in a single season. Yet they're still in the race. Now, they need to push ahead one more time. The veterans will keep the team focused. They will hit against Detroit. I think they will get just enough pitching to make it into the playoffs. Based on what's already happened, my scenario is plausible. So, yes I think they are a playoff team. Beginning next year, the Twins will be led by the youngsters. I'm optimistic. Let's hope the FO finds the front-line SP and veteran RP needed to become a WS contender in 2018 and beyond.
  16. dbminn
    I like your optimism! Trout has been a generational player and Buxton won't ever catch him in career stats. But I believe Buxton has a chance to challenge Trout in WAR in any given year. The talent is there and he's two wins per year better than Trout in the field. The guy is 23 years old so he's certainly not a finished product. Why not be optimistic?
  17. dbminn
    Well, Gibson gave the Twins 6 innings of 3-hit ball. What more could you want?
  18. dbminn
    JOE!!! That pitch was a half foot inside.
  19. dbminn
    The key players on the 87 Twins were a bit older than the current version. Gagne was the youngest at 25 while the others were hitting their prime. Bruno was 26; Hrbek, Puck and Bush 27; Gaetti 28 and Gladden 29. At SP, Viola and Straker were 27. They were ready to take the opportunities the playoff opponents gave them. IMHO, the current crop of youngsters are going to be better at the same ages. Of the core 7, Rosario is the oldest at 25. Buxton, Berrios and Polanco are 23. Even if they collapse this year, I'm really optimistic moving forward. A couple of acquisitions and good health are going to be key the next few years. As for 2017, I'm going to hope for "dumb" luck (or even smart luck) to carry a young and incomplete roster to the playoffs.
  20. dbminn
    And congratulations to Mitch Garver on a fine season!
  21. dbminn
    Just glanced at Wade's stats on FanGraphs. He's hits a lot of line drives and doesn't rely on ground balls to get hits. All good. The negative stat that stood out is infield fly ball rate (IFFB%). According to FG, 21.4% of his total fly balls in 2017 were pop-ups, which is way above average (about 11% in MLB). He had the same issue at Cedar Rapids (20.2%). At Ft. Myers, he had an average IFFB rate and his slugging percentage rose to a fat .518. Pop-ups seem like a problem that can be solved. I think I'll stay optimistic about his chance to be a solid MLB player.
  22. dbminn
    I agree they were excellent athletes, although I bet none of them could field a bunt like Miguel!
  23. dbminn
    Sano is a big guy. Charging bunts, scooping them barehanded and rotating the body to make an accurate throw to first would be unexpected at 260 pounds with six-pack abs. He's pretty darn nimble. I think Molitor tried to keep Sano fresh this year while playing to the needs of his team. Sano at DH gave him the chance to put either Escobar or Adrianza on the field, keeping them sharp. Sano at 1B let Mauer rest his weary 34 year-old bilateral legs once in a while. I don't see any reason why he won't start at 3B again next year under a similar scenario.
  24. dbminn
    Congratulations to Gabriel Moya on his first inning in the big leagues and to chalking up his first K. Wait... I am on the Moya forum, right?
  25. dbminn
    So... if Molitor goes, does the whole coaching staff go? Rowson and Rodriguez have done a fine job. Guardado and Allen seem like they have done well too. Glynn has gotten kudos for his fielding lessons. Seems like a Catch-22 for the FO. After all, the team is going to finish 20-25 games better than last year. I suppose it could be Pickel or Mauer or Mientkewicz.
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