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dbminn

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Everything posted by dbminn

  1. dbminn
    That's what happens when a person just jumps to the table. I'm guilty.
  2. dbminn
    Agreed, Mike. Here's a link to Chris Mitchell's "KATOH Primer", which people should read before slamming the rankings: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-primer-on-a-new-and-improved-katoh/ I can't remember who said this... and I paraphrase: Scouting and stats are like beer and tacos. Both are great on their own but they are better enjoyed together.
  3. dbminn
    I was quoting Dave Cameron of FanGraphs for the Freese contract. I agree the actual terms of his new contract could vary from either estimate.
  4. dbminn
    Here's a little math for the conversation. Data from FanGraphs. Plouffe: Has been estimated by MLBTR to cost 2yr/$18M. Freese estimated at 3yr/$33M.Has outperformed Freese the last two years (6.1 to 4.3 fWAR).Is 3 years younger than Freese.With 3 years of Freese and 2 years of Plouffe, assume total WAR will be similar. That means the difference is $15M. If you believe aging curves, Plouffe's relative value increases. (If you don't believe in WAR or WAR dollar value, I'm sympathetic.) Plouffe should be worth about $15M of baseball player value compared to Freese. That would be a good reliever under team control for a few years. At a minimum. I would want an additional prospect as well.
  5. dbminn
    The Twins should be able to get a mid-level prospect with a solid RP if multiple teams are interested. It all depends on the RP acquired. Years of control, current value and upside will affect the final trade.
  6. dbminn
    Great Hot Stove article! You have forgotten two Twins teams that were pretty incredible: 1969 (97 wins) and 1970 (98 wins). Unfortunately, this was the era of Orioles pitching. Here's the lineup and ages in 1970: C George Mitterwald 25 2 1B Rich Reese 28 3 2B Rod Carew 24 (hitting .366 before knee injury) and Danny Thompson 23 4 SS Leo Cardenas 31 5 3B Harmon Killebrew 34 6 LF Brant Alyea 29 7 CF Cesar Tovar 29 8 RF Tony Oliva 31 Starting rotation included Blyleven (19), Kaat (31), Tiant (29 but seemed a lot older), Perry (34) and Tommie Hall (22). Old-timers Perranoski and Williams in bullpen with Dave Boswell (25). One of my favorite Twins teams. Probably because I was 9 years old and they were winning a lot of games.
  7. dbminn
    The Twins could really use an OBP threat at lead-off. There are too many questions about the three young OF sustaining good seasons at the same time (Kepler, Rosario, Buxton). Odds are that at least one of the three either isn't ready or gets injured. A few things would have to happen to make this a real possibility: •Plouffe traded, giving Sano 3B and opening another OF spot •Span willing to play LF/RF when Buxton is ready. •Twins FO believes Kepler not ready for full-time gig until 2017 •Span willing to sign 2-year contract Probably not going to happen.
  8. dbminn
    Any insights on Arraez? I don't think he shows up on anyone's prospect list.
  9. dbminn
    SDBuhr, I like the idea of Berrios starting the season in the bullpen. I also agree that a good team has pitching depth at both the MLB and MiLB levels. I would not sign Fister. He's had two years of decline in his underlying stats (fastball velo <87 mph, ground balls, Ks). My preference is to trade for one RP and sign or trade for a 4th OF. I'd take a chance with the other nine available starters. I would trade Plouffe if the deal is right but I have no problem keeping him in Minnesota if there are no decent offers.
  10. dbminn
    Nolasco was an above-average SP for six years until the injury bug hit him in 2014-15 (3+WAR). Melvin Upton was an above-average OF until he forgot how to hit (3+WAR). We're talking about trading bad contracts, not finding a SP without moving Upton. Not off-base at all.
  11. dbminn
    Kennedy is a FA and the Padres are supposedly shopping a Tyson Ross/Matt Kemp package. They will need another SP if this happens. Nolasco would be a backend starter during the rebuild. The Pads OF will be Myers, Venable and Renfroe. Not saying it's likely but it's a halfway reasonable scenario. Depends if they get OF or SP for Ross/Kemp. http://timesofsandiego.com/sports/2015/11/16/matt-kemp-and-tyson-ross-reportedly-on-trading-block/ If you think the trade is uneven, it could be worked out without touching serious prospects. No big deal either way.
  12. dbminn
    I wouldn't mind if the Twins made the trade. Nolasco, when healthy, is no better than most of the rotation.Plenty of rotation depth (Gibson, Hughes, Milone, Duffey, Santana, Berrios, May).Three Twins OF may need more MiLB time: Rosario, Buxton and Kepler. Arcia is the 4th OF and he can't defend. Upton is a solid defender.Santana's OF defense is unproven.Finally, Upton would be fresh fodder for complaints. We've run out of things to say about Nolasco.
  13. dbminn
    1. The sum better than the whole. 2. Miguel Sano 3. Tyler Duffey 4. Eddie Rosario 5. Trevor May/Kevin Jepsen in the bullpen
  14. dbminn
    Completely agree that in-house prospects and trades are the best choices.
  15. dbminn
    Because of the SP logjam, the best way for the Twins to improve this year is to upgrade the bullpen. They'll be pitching about 40 percent of the time and are cheaper than starters. We've got room to add at least a couple of quality RP. IMO, relievers are nearly as valuable as starters if you have quality depth. Compare Win Probability Added (WPA) for some of last year's top teams. The Pirates, Royals, Cardinals, Yankees, Rangers and Cubs heavily relied on their RP to win games. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=2,d The Twins need two more things to happen for this strategy to work: The hitters will have to keep the game close .Buxton and Kepler need to quickly progress so there's enough defense to support the pitchers.
  16. dbminn
    I agree 100 percent - Yuck!
  17. dbminn
    There are a many more high-leverage situations as you enter the late innings. Bullpen depth is a better solution than simply using the closer in the 6th, IMO. Specialists or very good set-up RP would be a better bet. If all the team has is a good closer, I would agree with you.
  18. dbminn
    Twins need a power LH RP. There isn't much in the MiLB cupboard, even when you include back of the rotation types. IMO, a trade would be best.
  19. dbminn
    You're right, it would need to be a good prospect. Would be nice if you would tell me who it would be.
  20. dbminn
    Agreed. I should've said that Ryan would trade a top RP prospect and a 2nd prospect for Smith. Arcia would be added as a flier for the Brewers. Just needed to take a sideways jab at Oswaldo compared to his brother.
  21. dbminn
    I think the Twins would have to give them the better prospects. Not often I'd say the RP trumps the solid position player but Miller is special. Three more years of control at $9M/yr. Too bad... can't see TR making this one work.
  22. dbminn
    Oswaldo Arcia and a top RP prospect to the Brewers for Will Smith. Brewers will hope Arcia can learn hitting discipline from his little brother. RP prospect would have to be pretty substantial - one of the "big three". Twins get a LRP they don't have in their system. Twins may have to include a very young prospect as well.
  23. dbminn
    I don't think this has been added yet... JR Murphy calling out Carlos Gomez. Things don't become clear until the last minute. Just for fun... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEtOPFbxVgE
  24. dbminn
    Second column from the right. I would also use the pergame data because there are a lot of catchers listed who caught 0-1,000 pitches. Total strikes doesn't make for good ranking, IMO. Suzuki is not a great catcher. I just noted my surprise that his 2015 strikes added/lost per game is essentially zero, considering how bad the data looked for 2014.
  25. dbminn
    PerGame column. At least read the comment. Suzuki saw three times as many pitches. I also linked to statcorner and noted it in my original comment.
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