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dbminn

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  1. dbminn
    Sano 2015 OPS at AA: .848 (2015 only) Bryant 2014 AA: 1.160 Pederson 2014 AAA : 1.017 (AA in 2013 was .870 or so) Correa 2015 AA: 1.285 (Didn't reach AA to this year) Gallo 2015 AA: 1.061 (AA in 2014 was .858) Each of these players dominated before getting called up. The numbers are not close. Sano is a fine player and he may become great. Just a little patience.
  2. dbminn
    Yes, Sano will probably move to AAA after the Southern League All-Star Game. He may even be ready for the majors by August. Just seems that Sano hasn't had either the at-bats or the performance of the others during 2014-2015. Pederson, Bryant and Gallo had more than 500 PA in 2014. Sano had zero PA in 2014. A year off makes a difference. Each of these players also put up better numbers than Sano at AA. And no, Bryant didn't spend 2014 in the minors because of budget concerns. Just two weeks this year. If Sano puts up Bryant-like numbers in June and early July, maybe he's ready to come to the majors. That would be great. Until then, I don't see any reason to rush him to the Twins.
  3. dbminn
    Here are the 2014-15 stats of hot prospects brought to the majors this year. Each had many more plate appearances than Buxton or Sano prior to reaching the majors. They also have had success at each level. If you want to rush Sano and Buxton, that's fine. It just seems MLB management teams think it's better for development if they spend a bit of time at AA/AAA. Joc Pederson 2014: AAA 553 PA .303/.435/.582 MLB 38 PA .143/.351/.143 2015: MLB 240 PA .253/.377/.566 Kris Bryant 2014: AA 297 PA .355/.458/.702 AAA 297 PA .295/.418/.619 2015: AAA 33 PA .321/.364/.679 MLB 208 PA .282/.389/.471 Carlos Correa 2014: A+ 293 PA .325/.416/.510 2015: AA 133 PA .385/.459/.726 AAA 113 PA .276/.345/.449 (Also, Joey Gallo had 437 PA at AA before being called up.)
  4. dbminn
    Nice article. I too am not "buying" the Twins to make the playoffs this year - at least at retail prices. Still, there are many things about the Twins I am buying: Four major league pitchers who provide quality startsA second baseman emerging as an All-Star caliber playerAn aging outfielder lighting a fire under the rest of the teamA lockdown closerA boatload of talented young players who will progress to the majors this year and nextFor these reasons, the Twins are worth watching now, with hope for better years ahead. And here's the kicker: The Twins still have a 23.5% chance of making the playoffs this year (according to the all-knowing FanGraphs). At 4 to 1 odds? I'm buying. And who would've thought that at start of the year?
  5. dbminn
    2016 Holdovers SP: Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, May, Hughes RP: Perkins, Pressley, Graham C: Suzuki IF: Dozier, Mauer, Plouffe, Escobar OF: Rosario, Hicks, Arcia 2016 Maybes P: Fien, Thompson C: Hermann IF: Vargas, Santana OF:Hunter Deadline Trade Bait if Twins Fade in 2015 (In order of possibility) Pelfrey, Nunez, Fien, Plouffe, Hughes, Arcia, Suzuki The "trade bait" category probably won't be relevant for one of two reasons: Either 1) The Twins stay in the hunt; or 2) Ryan won't be able to pull the trigger.
  6. dbminn
    Vargas or Arcia will be up soon. It's a long season and we'll get by until one or both of them are ready.
  7. dbminn
    I would like to see the Twins add a catcher, but I'd rather spend prospects to get Susac from the Giants.
  8. dbminn
    Call up Polanco and send Santana to AAA. Polanco's bat might help the Twins right now.There would be long-term benefits as well: Santana needs to work on his hitting at AAA. Polanco is ready for a taste of the majors as part of his development. Santana can come back once he's regained confidence. Polanco can then return to the minors with a tangible understanding of what needs improvement. Vargas should be called up to DH as soon as the Twins can drop a reliever. Arcia needs to find his stroke before being recalled. I prefer Rosario in LF anyway - he's saved several runs with his defense and he's beginning to hit with a little authority. Pinto had an awful month of May and he is not a major league catcher. No chance he gets a call right now. The Twins have been winning because of their veterans. Vargas hadn't contributed anything before he was sent down. Arcia was just as bad at the plate for most of the season. He started to hit better the week before his injury but he still plays lousy defense. Throwing prospects onto the roster is not a magic bullet. They can only help when they're properly prepared. I respect Molitor and Ryan for keeping with this philosophy. But please, make Stauffer go away.
  9. dbminn
    What is the scouting report on Danny Ortiz? He's never mentioned in any prospect evaluations but seems to be progressing through the system. Does he have a chance to make a big league club at some point?
  10. dbminn
    Kepler has kept his strikeouts very low. A refreshing concept.
  11. dbminn
    Wow! A lot of venom, considering the team is playing well. I suspect TR and Molitor are aware of the issues and they are certainly not idiots. The Twins have a lot of promising players between 22 and 25 years old. Like it or not, the organization's priority is that the young players properly approach their jobs. Vargas was sent down for this reason (see Phil Miller's 6/2 Strib article). Arcia's been injured and they won't bring him back until he's shaken the rust off his swing. They are staying patient with Santana, likely because his defensive is progressing at this point. Not a bad philosophy if you are developing the team for the long run, even if you disagree with some of their ideas. I don't necessarily agree with keeping Santana in the major leagues right now. I would rather see Polanco at SS while Santana works on his game. I'm also anxious to see Arcia fully rehabbed and back in the lineup as DH. He was beginning to hit right before he went down. And yes, let's DFA Staufer. Finally, to save a lot of breath on this site... TRADE PINTO! He's not a major league catcher. We have plenty of DH types coming through the system.
  12. dbminn
    Arcia or Walker and Burdi for Chapman. Our starting pitchers are consistently giving us 6+ innings, so a second shutdown reliever would be nice. I'd take Chapman for this price, although I would prefer a lower cost right-handed reliever. RE: Kepler. I wouldn't trade him yet. Too much potential compared to his current value, IMO.
  13. dbminn
    Because the Twins are winning, our prospects are not being rushed to the majors. Better yet, fewer people are screaming for prospects to be rushed to the majors.
  14. dbminn
    The relievers who appear when the Twins are in a close game have been excellent by the "one true outcome" - team wins. I believe that last night's loss to Toronto was the second time the Twins failed to hold a lead after the 6th inning. As long as they win, the top of the bullpen will stay the same. Can the relievers who have appeared in close games sustain their excellence? Other than Perkins, probably not.The Twins will adjust as the season progresses and Boyer and Thompson falter. As it should be. Many of the current crop of "mop-up" relievers will be the first to go. I would have no problem moving Stauffer and Duensing right now and bringing up some younger blood.
  15. dbminn
    Next Moves: Stauffer DFA'd / Fien to the bullpen.Tonkin or Pressley to AAA / Vargas to DH.Extended AAA for Arcia.Santana stays with Twins for now.Shafer DFA'd when healthy.As long as the Twins are a contender: Robinson stays until Buxton proves he's major-league ready. Better to have a very good veteran defender as your outfield reserve.Nunez stays as pinch hitter, second utility man. Nunez can hit and he fills a role not suited to a prospect.Polanco to Twins if Santana continues to struggle at the end of June.
  16. dbminn
    Kepler is not walking much (6.0%) but he isn't striking out either (7.7%), which means he's seeing pitches. His isolated power is .209, which puts him in 6th place in the Southern League (100 PA min). I agree with Seth. Kepler is already on the 40-man roster. If he keeps raking, he'll probably get a cup of coffee with the Twins this year. I think Kepler's future is bright. He is barely 22 years old. At 6'4" and 210 pounds, he's sure to add, as Torii Hunter calls them, "man muscles" as he gets older.
  17. dbminn
    Sabermetrics can be very powerful when properly applied to the analysis. The most common tools are averaged outcomes for discrete at-bats, such as OBP and SLG. As shown above, these tools indicate that the Twins are "playing above their heads". In this case, a couple of particular average outcomes are not the best analytical tools because the data is too stratified. Here are two examples that skew the averaged data: The Twins were outscored 45-16 in the first seven games of the season. The average runs per game is still skewed by this incredibly horrible start.Duensing and Stauffer have been responsible for 19 runs in 19 innings. In every case (except for the first week), they have pitched when the Twins are far ahead or behind. I don't have the time to grind out the numbers, but refining the dataset for these two issues reduces the differential between game outcomes and play-by-play performance: The underlying runs per game averages are not so different from performance after the first week.Our top-line relievers are performing well and in accordance with the team's record.The end of our bullpen is awful.I do agree that the aggregate individual performances indicate that: Team hitting has been unsustainably "clutch". Ricky Nolasco has been unsustainably "lucky". I fully agree that the Twins are not a 93-win team but they are sustainably average or a little better.
  18. dbminn
    Teams that win over many seasons build from within the organization. Once they are contending, they add free agents or trade prospects to fill specific needs. The Twins are still in the construction phase. From the past six weeks, we can see the start of a solid foundation. It's an exciting change from recent years. Still, it's only six weeks! How about a little patience while the next building blocks sort themselves out? By mid-July, we'll know if this team can contend. Until then, we can watch the Twins try to solve some fun problems: Who will win the DH and SS positions: Arcia or Vargas and Santana or Polanco?Will Sano and/or Buxton deserve an opportunity by the All-Star Break?Between Rosario and Kepler - who is the better long-term prospect?Will the rotation stay healthy and in form?We'll have better information about both the major league team and the prospects by the trading deadline. We could easily become sellers instead of buyers - or maybe a bit of both. In any case, I'd rather not spend like a drunken sailor on old men making $20+ million per year based on one month of success.
  19. dbminn
    After four years of home-team horrors, it is fun to watch the Twins again. Three keys: The starting rotation has provided a decent proportion of quality starts. I no longer cringe when our outfielders have to make a play.Generally smart, aggressive base running.This is a flawed team with a bright future. Prospects at nearly every position, potential trade chips and a solid corps at the major league level. There will be another year of growing pains as the youngsters gain experience, but from here on out, I'm going to enjoy the ride.
  20. dbminn
    Max Kepler is off to an amazing start at AA, hitting for power and average. He hasn't walked very much (6.5% of PA) but has struck out at a very low rate (8.3%). Must be seeing the ball awfully well. Would like to hear from those who watch the Lookouts play on a regular basis. What has caused all of the success? Has he changed his approach or is he just maturing?
  21. dbminn
    The best way to minimize Hunter's limited range is to have athletes play the other two outfield positions (some combination of Rosario, Hicks and Robinson). If Rosario can show some progress hitting and the team keeps winning (two BIG IFs), I think you'll see Arcia and Hunter rotate through the outfield and DH, keeping two OF spots open for better defenders. Of course, the more likely outcome is Rosario is sent down, Arcia takes over LF and Hunter's lack of range is exposed to the maximum extent. Maybe, after a couple of months of misery, Rosario will be back or Buxton will be ready.
  22. dbminn
    I agree with Shane - let Polanco climb through all of the minor league levels. He can fight for SS with Santana next year. I'd rather see the Twins let players develop where they have the luxury of multiple players at a position (absent an injury).
  23. dbminn
    Aaron Hicks is only 25 years old, young enough to learn to be a decent major league hitter. He has shown he can hit AAA pitching. Hicks now needs at-bats to prove his worth in the majors, for better or worse. Where I disagree is the fielding ability of Hicks. He has been awful during his first to attempts at the major league level. On the other hand, Robinson has been excellent in the field. Hicks should not get at-bats if he can't field any better than his last two tries with the Twins. Developing players at the major-league level has to be done in the context of the team. Our young pitchers (starters and relievers) are all affected by defense. Let's give them a chance to succeed as well. With Arcia and Hunter at the corners, it's critical that the CF be able to field his position with range and consistency. If Hicks plays poor defense, DFA him and let Rosario have a spot on the roster. If his defense is solid the first few weeks, give him time to develop his offense.
  24. dbminn
    I fully agree that 24 innings are not enough to know if Pelfrey is going to be an effective starter throughout the year. That said, there are a couple of statistics that I will be watching in his next outings: Pitch Performance (f/x data) Fastball vs. Sinker and Splitter %: 49.8/29.2 (Career) vs. 23.1/56.0 (Current) Splitter Velocity: 84.4/81.8 mph Pelf is using his 4-seam fastball less, relying more on pitches kept down in the zone. He's also added 3 mph of difference between FB and SF velocity. That may not sound like a big change but I suspect the stat has had an effect on recent results: Outcomes (Current/Career) Line Drive Percentage (LD%): 12.7% / 20.2% Ground Ball Percentage (GB%): 57.7% / 47.9% GB% is a rough indicator of effectiveness for pitchers who work down in the zone. Fangraphs always cautions that ball-in-play data contains a lot of "noise". However, they also state that BIP noise is not all "luck", especially for control pitchers. Finally, Pelfrey has changed both pitch selection and velocity difference. I'm interested to see if he "regresses to the mean" or if he has made actual improvements.
  25. dbminn
    Put a short leash on bullpen depth. We have AAA relievers who are ready to go. Hicks is no solution in CF, at least until he proves he can field the position. He's been as bad in the field as he's been at the plate the past two years. We probably have to let Shafer play until Rosario or Buxton is ready to take the spot. Let the current rotation pitch for a while. Only Pelfrey should have a short leash. The problem here is long term. Two aging starters, mediocre at best, clogging the rotation for years to come. Otherwise, we're stuck until the AA prospects are ready. They should not be brought up before their time. Some may arrive in the next two months, some late in the season. Fan anguish on April 16th isn't a good reason to bring them up now. I'm more interested in the next few months: We have too many good hit / no field players in the pipeline (Sano, Walker, Harrison). Trade either Vargas or Pinto if the price is right. Trade Suzuki as contending teams inevitably lose their starting catchers. Let Fryer, a good defensive catcher, have a chance to start. Let's pray that Nolasco comes back and pitches well enough to be traded, even if the Twins have to eat a chunk of the contract and get nothing in return. Put Hunter on the bench if and when Rosario and Buxton arrive. Or, move Danny Santana back to the outfield if Polanco keeps lighting up AA.
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