Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

dbminn

Verified Member
  • Posts

    1,033
  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by dbminn

  1. I'm sure the Pirates are thrilled about losing Miguel Sano.
  2. I believe we'll see Arcia again this year. He just turned 24 years old and still has tremendous potential as a hitter. My hope is he comes up and subs more than occasionally for Hunter, who is beginning to look like a tired hitter. Give the old man a few more breaks! I wouldn't trade him until he has greater value.
  3. For fun and discussion: Twins trade some combination of Plouffe/Pelfrey/Polanco to get Austin Hedges from San Diego (could be others included from both sides). Twins make the trade because: They need a young catcher to grow with the other prospects. Plouffe is blocking Sano from 3B and taking a roster spot from Arcia or Buxton. (I really like Plouffe but he is probably our most valuable non-prospect trading chip) They have reservations about Polanco playing SS. Dozier is blocking 2B.Padres make the trade because: They are still trying to win this year. The back end of their rotation is awful. They are getting zero production at 3B and 2B.Any takers? Is Plouffe too important to this year's possible wild-card team to better the team next year?
  4. The key thought from ttreadway, "My opinion is that the twins FO is doing things right, and I hope and pray that they don't trade away any valuable future prospects this month in an attempt to win 4 or 5 more games." I agree. My lineup would resemble the one put together by blairpaul715, except I would have a 25-man roster (not 24 - am I counting ok?). I would add Arcia, so we have a left-handed power hitter. 12 pitchers are enough. Since this is an ideal roster, I would have Berrios in the rotation as well. Realistically, I would keep Milone until Berrios is ready.
  5. Here's one for you - May 1964 Minnesota Twins: Killebrew 1.041 Oliva 1.136 Allison 1.000 Although I was alive at the time, I don't remember 1964. I was hoping my childhood-favorite Twins trio had performed the feat. The 1977 Twins had three hitters that stood out, although none were pure power hitters. They didn't manage to have a single epic month but they rocked for the year. Here's their OPS for the 1977 season: Carew: .388/.449/.570 (1.019) Hisle: .302/.369/.533 ( .902) Bostock: .336/.389/.508 ( .897) I would be very happy if the three Lookouts put up these MLB lines in the future!
  6. Congratulations to Brandon Peterson. Glad to see Luke Bard pitching again and performing well. He's pitched the same number of innings this year that he had pitched in his entire career through 2014.
  7. "For both Vargas and the Twins, salvaging whatever is possible in the shortest timeline has to be the goal." I completely disagree. This is exactly not the goal. Vargas is 24 years old and, as Hosken says, could still have a long major league career ahead of him. Let him work through his issues until he's ready to consistently hit major league pitching. In the meantime, Sano gets an opportunity. Arcia is 10 months younger than Vargas. We need to be patient with him as well. I am optimistic about Arcia's future with the bat but he needs to get better in the field. Rosario is a better fit right now, with Torii in RF. There is good news to the situation: Vargas and Arcia have been replaced by prospects. The next year will bring more shuffling between the show and the minors as all of the young players get a chance.
  8. Cody Anderson is almost 25 years old.
  9. Good for Berrios! I wonder... the Twins philosophy has been to hold winning minor league teammates together. Maybe Sano, Polanco and Kepler will be elevated to AAA in the next month. There will certainly be enough pitching at AAA to be competitive and no one is blocking their positions. Of course, Sano could be called up to the show.
  10. We got Sano for two reasons: The Pirates' failure and Joe Mauer, Sano's favorite player.
  11. Sano is the most ready to get the call. I suspect he'll be with the Twins for the July 6th series against the Orioles. They may wait until after the All-Star Break so he doesn't sit around for four days. Walker needs to work on his %k rate. Kepler would be fun to see while Buxton and Hicks are on the shelf. He should at least move to AAA very soon. It's hard to argue with Kepler's performance this year. He's been consistent and dominant. He almost needs to be called up to find out what he needs to work on at the plate.
  12. WAR is fine if it is viewed as a rough summary. It's like reading the Cliff Notes version of "Macbeth". The full text has a richer meaning than the summary. Seeing the performance is the greatest experience. For baseball, detailed statistical data brings out more about each particular player than WAR. Seeing the actual players is what makes it all worth the debate. The problems are bigger for defensive and pitching than for offensive WAR: Pitching WAR varies quite a bit based on underlying assumptions. FIP WAR (fielding-independent pitching) is a popular model. Historically, stats people have been unable to separate talent from variability (luck) on balls in play. FIP WAR simply ignores BIP. RA9 WAR is based on what has actually happened on the field but doesn't account for their fielding support (or lack of). For now, it's better to look at both calculations. Defensive WAR is pretty much irrelevant over the short term. Even the developers of dWAR suggest it takes three years of data before there's much confidence in the specific value. The reason? Most plays are routine. Only a few plays in the field are difference makers in a given year. IMO, dWAR is better viewed separately and in clumps: High dWAR players are the best fielders but differences of 10 or 20 percent are not significant. dWAR is going to get much better with more quantified data (route efficiency, jump, ground covered) once Statcast data is fully available. I suspect managers and coaches use underlying performance data to make decisions, especially with prospects and young players. Contact rates for batters, pitch values (velocity differences between pitches, e.g.) for pitchers. Outcome data like WAR are for fans.
  13. Consistently decent starting pitching has made the Twins fun to watch. Most games are competitive. Prospects are starting to appear. They even have a chance at a wild card entry into the playoffs. It's good to be a Twins fan again. I agree with the poster: The Twins are in the middle of rebuilding and moves should not sacrifice the future. Given the quality of available prospects, they could win a WC slot through call-ups. OTOH, I would be willing to trade veterans like Plouffe, Nunez, Escobar or Pelfrey at the deadline, even if the Twins are in the WC hunt. Plouffe or Pelfrey should only be traded if the Twins get substantial long-term value in return (using the stern vernacular of others at this site: "AND IT'S A BIG IF!") . Substantial includes a near-ready MLB catcher. Some argue that we have to do what's necessary to slip into a wild card slot this year. "You never know when you'll get another chance" is the mantra. I don't agree. Teams that build a strong core from within get multiple chances and they don't settle for the wild card.
  14. Fine article. Not mentioned are a few points I consider key parts of Molitor's success: Teaching situational awareness (base running, hitting the cutoff man, shifting, etc) as much as implementing the system. Raising young players' confidence. In just the past week, Molitor has sat down with Vargas and told him not to worry about getting sent down. He also moved Buxton to leadoff even as Buxton looked overmatched in his first eight games. I don't think Gardenhire would've done the same. Hiring a fine pitching coach. Neil Allen has stressed the development and use of off-speed pitches. As with Molitor, Allen seems to be a teacher as much as a coach.
  15. K-rates pretty much lines up with age/experience.
  16. The next couple of years are going to be interesting, to say the least. I like the idea that no one will be given a position in the outfield - they'll have to earn it! As of right now, looks like a 2016 outfield of Rosario in LF/Buxton in CF. Kepler could be the one to move Hicks from RF to 4th OF. Arcia is still an option for RF, for the same reasons given by others: young, powerful, and left-handed. And ABW will eventually be in the mix... I hope TR is patient and doesn't trade any of the prospects until the picture gets a bit clearer.
  17. Seems like single inning set-up reliever should be Meyer's first job in the majors. I don't mind that they are giving him extended relief innings in AAA. Forces him to use all of his pitches. There shouldn't be any transition problems between long relief in AAA and short relief in the majors. Still needs to get his BB rate down.
  18. I agree that ticket sales are not the only thing but, as I commented above, they are incredibly important. I just made my best guess as to when Sano would arrive. Seems to me there's a confluence of events that will make sometime between July 2 and July 6 the best bet. It's also important that Sano has continued to improve at AA and nobody else has stepped up at DH.
  19. Baseball is an entertainment business. Ticket revenues and TV are what keep the Twins solvent. It also allows them to invest in the team. The StarTribune has already ran a bunch of positive articles about Buxton. And Buxton is selling tickets: http://www.startribune.com/buxton-buzz-helps-fuel-target-field-ticket-sales/307752671/ Here's a quote for you: "The Twins arguably haven’t had such a highly anticipated debut since Joe Mauer in 2004, Justin Morneau in 2003, or even as far back as Kirby Puckett in 1984. St. Peter expects this excitement to fuel sales around the stadium, especially if Buxton can prove himself quickly. Buxton apparel will arrive at Target Field early Wednesday." (Honestly, I didn't see this article prior to writing my first comment) PS - I stand corrected on the schedule.
  20. My bet is that Sano will be called up before July 6, when the Twins face Baltimore at home: The games this weekend will probably sell out, with Buxton and all of the young Cub talent. No need to increase sales this week.No DH required between June 22 and July 1, when the Twins travel to NL ballparks.The Twins finish their road trip with KC, beginning July 2. They may bring up Sano for KC, as kind of a tease to promote ticket purchases for the last homestand before the All-Star Game.I could see the Twins elevating Polanco in the third phase of this project. Might as well see if he can play a little SS in the big leagues. The rebuilding begins in earnest.
  21. I'm with most of the commenters. Arcia should stay in the minors, at least until he finds his swing and maybe longer. Still, I wouldn't give up on him just yet. He's young and has the potential to be a left-handed power threat in the future.
  22. "It was fun to watch Santana's performance last season but his time might have already be run out in Minnesota." Cody, I agree that Polanco looks like he's moved up the pecking order. I would not say the Santana's time in Minnesota has run out. He's 24 years old. He was improving defensively as the season wore on. He doesn't look like the long-term solution right now but he has time to improve.
  23. Re: contact management skills. Great article by Jesse Lund on Pelfrey's improved performance: http://www.twinkietown.com/2015/6/11/8768669/charting-the-improvements-of-mike-palfrey
  24. Great article. The Twins starters are better this year as a group. Hughes has scuffled a bit but is picking it up. May is learning each time out. Pelfrey and Gibson have been very good. xFIP is not a good measurement for ground ball pitchers like Gibson and Pelfrey. For example, xFIP believes that Ricky Nolasco and Trevor May are the best Twins starters this year. Debatable. Ground balls are associated with a much lower OPS than fly balls and line drives. A higher ground ball percentage should also result in more double plays. Gibson and Pelfrey have induced 27 DP, while the other four starters have 12. Not a coincidence. Pitching performance is affected by how hard balls are hit and by ground ball percentage. Tony Blengino at Fangraphs has been running a series on "contact quality" this year. He says, "Contact management is really, really important. To be a truly great starter in the big leagues today, it’s not enough to simply miss a ton of bats and minimize walks. Unless one does both to a prodigious extent, like [David] Price, at least one core contact-management skill is required to propel you to the elite level." http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/contact-quality-just-a-part-of-the-puzzle-2014-al-pitchers/
×
×
  • Create New...