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dbminn

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Everything posted by dbminn

  1. dbminn
    I was looking at the PerGame column. Suzuki saw a lot more pitches than Murphy. totals were -0.01/-0.07 extra strikes per game. That is neutral. Where are you getting 90th place? That must be for 2014. In 2015, he's ranked right behind Murphy. (That may be my fault, if I linked to 2014 instead of last year)
  2. dbminn
    According to BP (by way of FanGraphs), he's supposed to be an above average pitch framer. By last year's StatCorner data, he's neutral. RE: Suzuki and pitch framing. In 2014, he was bad. By 2015 data, he was neutral. http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php
  3. dbminn
    I was hoping for a multiplayer deal that brought a C with higher upside. Not a bad trade but not what I wanted to see. Hicks probably has more upside than Murphy. We needed a solid defensive catcher who can hit better than Suzuki and that's what we've gotten. I expect a Suzuki/Murphy platoon, at least to start the year.
  4. dbminn
    I'm not that far off from you. I think it would be $15M/yr, but that's just quibbling. I'm more concerned that we'd have to give FAs 3-yr deals. Anyway, here's what FanGraphs thinks, for what it's worth. It's a nice reference for conversation: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-top-50-free-agent-predictions/
  5. dbminn
    I agree with all you listed except Broxton. Sipp would be fine too. My priority would be Kelley/Madson/Sipp. Problem is that there are a lot of teams looking for RP this offseason, so they will be expensive (Dodgers, Cubs, Astros, for example). Might be better to trade for a RP like Storen.
  6. dbminn
    It does seem like a lopsided trade. The only caveat on Palka is his age - just turned 24 and was in High-A last year. Well done, TR!
  7. dbminn
    Ryan is not trying to "trick" GMs. Like others here have said, it's a message that he's willing to walk away from lousy trades. It also is a sign of respect for Plouffe - not hanging him out to dry when there is no reason. Try to imagine your boss wandering around the office, talking about demoting or getting rid of you for a couple of months without taking any action. Not a great way to build office morale.
  8. dbminn
    I agree with others who wouldn't look to trade Rosario but would listen if the price is right. He's 24 years old. His main problem is plate discipline, which can be solved by patience and experience. I'll take the bet that we haven't seen his best. Yes, he could slump next year if he doesn't make adjustments. Long-term, he'll figure it out. I'd prefer to trade Plouffe and/or Hicks as part of deals for a good C and RP. But I'd rather keep the current roster if Ryan can't find a reasonable deal during the winter. None of these players should be traded just to remove the perceived logjam.
  9. dbminn
    It's a long-term deal. I said, "the start of the season (and/or the first season)". Two different things.
  10. dbminn
    I didn't say he'd be sent to Rochester. Just might not begin the year as a starter. Kang didn't start for the Pirates for the first half last year. That does make sense. He's moving from a completely different culture for both baseball and life. Might take some adjustment. You also have to keep in mind the theme of my comment: You don't have to trade Plouffe at bargain prices. And the conclusion: I think the Twins are going to make a bigger, multiplayer trade. But the Twins have to be willing to make things work rather than dumping a 3WAR player who's under control.
  11. dbminn
    The Twins have no reason to trade Plouffe at bargain prices. First, there is no guarantee that Park will be able to start in his first year. Second, Sano or Plouffe may end up in the outfield the first part of the year (not my preference but possible). Third, someone could get injured early on. Still, I think the Twins are setting up for a big multi-player trade, even multiple teams. They have a lot of player combinations to offer.
  12. dbminn
    Update - From KBS Sports in Korea - Twins win bid: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/twins-win-byung-ho-park-bid.html
  13. dbminn
    From mlbtraderumors.com, November 9: 8:52am: Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that the White Sox aren’t the winner, either. That leaves the Brewers and Twins in addition to the Cubs and Reds, though the latter duo doesn’t have much of a spot for Park to play... http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/latest-byung-ho-park-winning-bid.html
  14. dbminn
    I would prefer a deal with the Padres for a catcher. If the Padres are interested in Plouffe, that would signal they are going for the playoffs next year. In that case, wouldn't they be more likely to trade their catching prospect than Norris?
  15. dbminn
    No. It's a seller's market for FA catchers and the risk isn't worth the cost of Weiters. Instead of clogging the budget, we can spend some prospect capital on a young catcher. Plawecki, Norris and Hedges have already been mentioned. I'd include Hector Sanchez (Giants) and Austin Barnes (Dodgers) as well. Both the Giants and the Dodgers need pitching, so Gibson might be a good piece to offer as part of a package. He would play well at both home stadiums. These guys will cost good players, but we need a quality catcher that can grow with the current crop of Twins prospects.
  16. dbminn
    Watching the Royals just magnifies the reasons why Arcia isn't an answer in the outfield. Poor defense and massive strikeout rate for a team that already strikes out too much compared to power output. And, as much as I would like to see Trevor May start, I think he's more valuable in the bullpen, given the existing starting rotation and lack of ready relief pitching. Hopefully, some of the young bullpen arms will be ready by mid-year, putting May back in the rotation by 2017.
  17. dbminn
    If another team was looking at a trade involving Walker, they'd classify him as "high power upside/high risk". MLB has Walker as the Twins' 10th best prospect and here at TD he's ranked 8th. Seems reasonable to me. At this point, he's shown no indication that he will perform like Miguel Sano or Kris Bryant. Question is, do we wait around to see how he develops or do we include him in a trade to improve the current MLB team? I have no problems trading him for the right deal (C or SS, not a RP). Fine with me if he turns out great for another team as long as the Twins get what they need.
  18. dbminn
    I have to disagree with you about Blyleven. He was a dominant pitcher throughout his early twenties. He just didn't get much support. He had a 47.1 fWAR in his first seven years (6.7 WAR/yr), then returned to help win a World Series. His fWAR was second in MLB to Tom Seaver in his first Twins stint.
  19. dbminn
    If Hunter had not come back this year, I would've said no. Now, let's see what happens the next couple of years. If this team makes a World Series and the young OF are a big part of the success, Hunter might become part of a final Twins HOF-type story. Retire his number? Probably not.
  20. dbminn
    From 2012-2014, Lucroy was a 13 WAR player. He was good the last two months of the 2015 season after he came back from a broken toe. He did play a short time after the concussion, although he didn't catch. He's under control the next two years for a combined $9.2 million. That's a pittance. Lucroy is going to cost at least three very good prospects. Polanco, Stewart and Arcia are not going to be nearly enough. Reed (or May)/Kepler/Polanco is probably in the range of what they'll ask. They are going to want the same future WAR back for what they trade, at a similar value. Since prospects haven't proven anything, they'll want upside. I wouldn't make the trade, primarily because of the concussion.
  21. dbminn
    Converting relievers to starters, if only for a short while, has its benefits: The reliever learns to throw three pitches. They also learn how to pitch (location, pitch sequence) instead of blowing fastballs by everybody.
  22. dbminn
    Would this have sounded better? "Sano definitely needs to play 3B, so we have to trade Plouffe" "Our starting outfield next year is already set. Rosario/Buxton/Hicks, no matter what!" "I'm going to fight for Berrios in the 2016 opening rotation" "We don't want Hunter, even if he's willing to be the 5th OF" Wouldn't make a lot of sense. Reading between the lines says you don't show your hand before anyone has anted up.
  23. dbminn
    After six straight losing years, the New York Mets have punched their ticket to the World Series. The Mets GM, Sandy Alderson, built the team by drafting and acquiring key prospects. He kept the team's budget near or under $100 million for several years, waiting for the prospects to arrive. New York Times reporter Tyler Kepner has posted an interesting article about the progression from the Bernie Madoff scandal and bloated budgets to the World Series: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/23/sports/baseball/after-madoff-fraud-mets-altered-approach-for-pennant.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=mini-moth&region=top-stories-below&WT.nav=top-stories-below The Twins are at a crossroads this Winter: Do we trade established players like Gibson, Dozier and Plouffe, fortifying our stable of young players? This strategy might delay the Twins competitive rise but create a better chance at a World Series title. Do the Twins trade or sign older, established veterans? We might improve at a quicker pace, with the risk of being saddled with a high payroll and a rapidly declining roster. What do you think? However the Twins proceed, nothing is guaranteed. As Alderson says about putting together a team: “Process is designed to enhance probabilities,” Alderson said. “It’s not designed to insure anything. So a lot of things have to go right. There’s a lot of luck involved.”
  24. dbminn
    I agree that Gibson is the most tradable pitching asset. Signing Ervin Santana last year gave the Twins depth but created a jam for developing young starters. None of the other veteran starters would be attractive to anyone this offseason. Gibson has shown he can dominate (eight starts with no earned runs, 18 with 2 ER or less). His upside is a bit more than other pitchers with the same record because his problem is solvable - pitching from the stretch. I wouldn't trade Gibson for the sake of opening up a rotation spot. He would have to be part of a trade involving a top-30 pitcher or a high-end young catcher that is MLB ready.
  25. dbminn
    Kiley definitely has knowledge and experience. Played it pretty safe with prospect predictions - definitely went with athletic talent - as a good scout should. Never really understood his general hate for Eddie Rosario. I think a lot has to do with the marijuana test, which was not a big deal for me in terms of "makeup". (It was a big deal in terms of the suspension.) Still kept him at "45" on his FV scale, even through this year.
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