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dbminn

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Everything posted by dbminn

  1. dbminn
    Great article, Nick. IMO, you're on spot re: free agents and trades. This group isn't set up for 2019. Doesn't mean they can't win this year, just not the priority. With all the youth on the staff, the FO still salted in Diaz and Watkins - a couple of "been there/done that" guys - for position players (and for Sp. speakers). The surprise hire for me was Hefner. I thought they might add an experienced bullpen coach too. Not against the idea, but coaching a staff through a 162-game season is different from college. It's going to be interesting.
  2. dbminn
    Totally agree it's going to take a year to see how this works. It's an interesting group.
  3. dbminn
    IMO, the FO picked this group for the long term. They aren't writing off 2019 but it's not their priority. This is the year to find out if: Sano and Buxton can develop into everyday, above-average players; andThe new coaches can help the young starters reach their full potential (Romero, Stewart, Mejia, Gonsalves, Littell, DeJong).By the end of next season, the FO will know if they're shooting for 2020 or 2022 to compete in (not just make) the playoffs. OTOH, I don't expect the FO is going to sign a bunch of 30+ yr old FA this year to play for this young management team. Just the opposite - I'm curious how long they keep Gibson, Odo, Castro and Pineda. I hope they sign Gibson. If they don't, they need to trade him before the season. The others will probably go depending on health and how the team plays in the first half.
  4. dbminn
    Interesting he was selected for pitching coach. With his background, I could see the FO hiring him to be minor league pitching coordinator. He has some new challenges ahead - an MLB season is a lot different than college. Congratulations to Wes Johnson and hope it all works out for the best!
  5. dbminn
    Big effort - really liked it! Sign me up for Eovaldi.Replace Lowrie with Marwin Gonzalez (flexibility, longer term).Two relievers are needed and there are plenty available. My choices would be different but I back the intent. I'm a big No on Goldschmidt. Too much for one year when there's a lot of uncertainty around Sano and Buxton. I could see a trade for Belt. He'd be around for 3 years and can play a little OF. He was hurt after June last season, so the FO would need to know he's healthy.IMO, even with these changes, the Twins need good seasons from Buxton and Sano. I'd like to see moves that will impact the team the next three years. (PS - Trevor May is not on your final roster)
  6. dbminn
    Sad to say, I think this will be the type of roster to start the season. More likely the FO trades veterans for young players than they sign long-term free agents. I don't see the veterans traded until mid-season, except Gibson. I hope they can agree to a reasonable extension with Gibby in the offseason.
  7. dbminn
    Thanks for the response. I should have added that I think the team can compete in 2020 and be very good in 2021. Without Gibson, the Twins will have only Berrios as an established SP. The upside of any SP in the Twins system that could pitch in 2020 is no greater than what Gibson is right now (including Romero). I'd give him 3/$40M for 2019-21, maybe adding a team option w/buyout for 2022. That's a lot of guaranteed money to turn down. If he doesn't want it, I'd trade him this offseason too.
  8. dbminn
    Good, aggressive article, Tom. I think you're right about FO intentions. The Twins could be under $30M in annual salaries by September 2019. My issue with your trade suggestions is the lack of SP coming in return. My idea is Kepler to the Braves for Touki Toussaint and a RP. I'd also extend Gibson through 2021. Twins have plenty of position players coming through the system, except for the noticeable hole at 3B. Odorizzi or one of the deadline trades could fill that gap in the system.
  9. dbminn
    Thanks for the timely article, Seth. As others have said, there's a logjam for the 40-man. The FO is going to need to make some good decisions, especially with pitchers. A question and a comment about position players: OF - Assume Wade is protected. Field and Granite are the same age and both on the 40-man roster. Do the Twins drop one of them? I'd lean towards keeping Granite. Wiel and Arraez. I'm not sure they would be taken in the Rule V, but I'd hate to lose either of them. Both players manage the K zone and hit the ball. Sometimes, it's easier to teach power than to unlearn a grooved swing (like Austin). I'd like to hear opinions from those who have seen these two play in the past year. PS - For Wiel, HR power. For Arraez, more extra base hits.
  10. dbminn
    From 2017 to 2018, 4 players - Sano, Buxton, Polanco and Castro - combined to log 1,145 fewer plate appearances and netted -8.4 fWAR (9.1 WAR in 2017, 0.7 WAR in 2018). All due to injury and PEDs. Add Santana with 184 less IP and a net fWAR of -2.9. That's 11 fewer wins due to circumstances beyond Molitor's control. Rocco is moving into a great spot. He'll get plenty of slack the first year. At least one of Buxton and Sano will have a productive year. Polanco will be very good with the bat all season. The Twins have found catchers to replace Castro. Cave has proved he can be the 4th OF. And if Rocco is lucky, Pineda will be healthy. The bullpen will be miserable and there are gaps in the IF, but that'll be on Falvey to solve.
  11. dbminn
    Congratulations to Rocco. He's young, smart and has MLB cred. That's a good start. I'm curious to see if they keep any of the coaches. Maybe Pickler and Shelton? It seemed to me those two were FO picks.
  12. dbminn
    IMO, the FO believes that 2019 is a "wait-and-see" year. Pressly would not have been traded if they were serious about next season. They might pick up two RP on one-year contracts, like Clippard, Norris or Warren. Any interesting RP will come - if at all - via trade, with several years of control.
  13. dbminn
    I'm a big fan too. They both have such great balance and hands at the plate - beyond what can be taught. Neither has reached their upside.
  14. dbminn
    Too easy!!!
  15. dbminn
    Re: New manager... Six of the nine coaches are FO hires. This leads me to believe that they will hire an inexperienced manager, where they can choose which coaches stay with the team. Or they hire from the inside, like Shelton. Just a guess. If the FO goes with an inexperienced manager, does that mean they are looking to 2020 and later to compete? If so, Gibson and either Kepler or Rosario may be on the trade block before the 2019 season. My suspicion began with the Pressly trade. He had another year left and had already made strides with the Twins. Another wild-ass guess but it kind of fits together. And thanks to Paul Molitor for his tenure with the Twins. Best wishes moving forward.
  16. dbminn
    I agree with the rankings. Of course, a shout out to Astudillo. Less than 100 PA but he had an impact with both stats and stature. Finally, a thumbs-up to Kohl Stewart. He improved a lot from his first few appearances to his last. Don't know how good he'll be in the long run but he showed a decent FB and a really nice sinker.
  17. dbminn
    Gibson had a solid 2018 after a strong ending to last season. Let's hope Garver and Rogers do the same in 2019. Both were really good after the break this year.
  18. dbminn
    I think other 40-man roster candidates are Zander Weil, Tyler Jay and Jaylin Davis. I'm never sure about this issue, so correct me if I have the wrong group. Romero will be in the running for 5th starter, along with Mejia (who is out of options). Lot of moving parts going into 2019 - Health, SP contracts, Mauer, free agency. It's going to be interesting.
  19. dbminn
    Stewart has thrown 145 innings in 2018, after only 82 IP in 2017. The FO probably doesn't want him to have a high pitch count this late in the season.
  20. dbminn
    A fine article, Nick. Between your ideas and Sixel's comments, you have covered a lot of good ground. One opinion on SP - I think Mejia still has a chance to become a very good #3 SP. He should definitely remain on the 40-man roster.
  21. dbminn
    Fernando Romero needs to be added to the list
  22. dbminn
    Also, happy birthday to Brusdar Graterol. Maybe the Twins need to look at birthdays when they draft pitchers!
  23. dbminn
    Good question. I went to the new Fangraphs seasonal value table and looked at 2005-2010. I downloaded the info and found totals for all players (for some reason, FG doesn't have a "total" column). Mauer had the fifth highest value of all position players, after: Pujols / Utley / A-Rod / D Wright I didn't use 2004 because Mauer got hurt after 122 PA (1.2 WAR). Doesn't really answer your question about players in their first six years but it was the best I could do. He's 79th from 2011-Present.
  24. dbminn
    Going to be a busy transaction day for Cedar Rapids tomorrow.
  25. dbminn
    I totally understand why the Twins traded Eduardo. Seems like a decent return. I'm still sad about it. Bollinger reports Sano is on his way to Boston.
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