chpettit19

Take the Yankees 11-1 against the Twins and White Sox away and they're an 83 win team last year and don't make the playoffs. Yeah, if you take double digit wins away from any team their record gets much worse. Crazy. My goodness, the Dodgers went 13-3 against Colorado and Chicago. Take those 13 wins away. Clearly they were actually an 85 win team. Dang, now neither World Series team made the playoffs. As it turns out, every team plays bad teams and most of them dominate those bad teams. It's why those bad teams have so many loses. Because they lose to everyone. Not just the Twins.

I treated the question as if being competitive meant both Rocco and Falvey were guaranteed to keep their jobs. I don't know if that's how it was meant, but I thought that made it a more difficult question. Still voted for option 2. Give me a competitive summer of Twins baseball over this disaster every time. Now I watch the rest of the league and the Twins minor league affiliates (and a couple other minor league games here and there, too) so I get plenty of good baseball all summer anyways, but an entire season of this kind of Twins baseball is just awful. I also don't think the Twins being at or just about .500 should (would?) lock Rocco and Falvey into their jobs, either. So, it's possible, or at least should be, to have options 1 and 2. And if ownership does change then it's all on the table. Ideally, I'd take option 3. All of the above. But if I can only pick 1, I'll take competitive Twins baseball any time that's an option.

Not a good defender. Certainly not better than average. Never say never when it comes to a guy improving as you never know what kind of work a guy will put in, but he doesn't look like a guy who's ever going to have defensive value over there. His bat is going to have to carry him. In my opinion. And most of his scouting reports have pretty negative opinions about his defense as well. But the Twins believe he can stick at third and be at least average there. Take that as you will.

And that's why I said I wouldn't bet on them doing it. I don't care about their best month, though. The first half of the season they were 54-42. They were 9-13 after their first 22 games last year and had just that best month of May where they were 4 games over .500 yet they managed to be 12 games over .500 at the halfway point of the season. That month of May being their best doesn't seem to be telling much of the story. Again, I wouldn't have bet on them winning 87 games before the season, and I wouldn't bet on them doing it now. But winning at an 89-win pace isn't outrageous. They have 140 games left. I'm not going to let 22 games make a drastic change to my opinions at the start of the season just like I wouldn't in the middle of the season. Baseball is a long season. Carlos Santana was hitting .133, Matt Wallner was in AAA, and Alex Kirilloff was hitting .279 on this date a year ago. I'm just saying that I'm going to stick to my guess of the Twins being about a .500 club at this point and not let even this horrid start have me jumping off the cliff just because others are. I still think this team has the pitching to go on a run, but the lack of offense will keep them from being all that great. The horrible run happening at the beginning of the year doesn't change my opinion. Yet.

So, let hitters crush the pitch you throw 40% of the time so they fail against the pitch you throw 27% of the time and the vast majority of that 27% is against lefties only? Solid strategy. I can see why his fastball getting smoked isn't a problem now. The pitch he throws the most getting blasted is a problem. I don't get why that's controversial. I've met Eno Sarris. Super nice guy. Not even he would tell you it's a good strategy to have your most often used pitch get mashed because it's Stuff+ is good. You're misusing Stuff+ to try to explain away a very real problem.

77-63 doesn't sound all that hard at all, actually. This gave me more hope than I had when I woke up today. That's a 55% winning percentage. Just win series. That's all it is. 2 out of 3. 3 out of 4. Mix in a sweep or 2 of the White Sox to make up for the series you don't win (obviously aren't going to win every series). I was expecting to need closer to a 100-win pace. This is an 89-win pace. I still wouldn't bet on it, but I didn't expect them to win 87 games before the season started so I already wasn't betting on that. It's so early still. And 89-win pace is not a crazy ask. They were on a much better pace most of last year. I wouldn't bet on them getting to 87 wins, but it's not the craziest thing ever.

A pitch can be the nastiest in the world but if hitters hit it well it doesn't matter. Hitters see Festa's fastball well. They hit it hard. And they put up big numbers against it. As the article said, that's not a huge deal if he has a bunch of offerings, but Festa is a 3-pitch pitcher (for now). And, really, he's closer to a 2-pitch pitcher because his change and slider usage are pretty platoon heavy. So, the hitter really only needs to worry about 2 pitches coming at him since he knows if he's a lefty it's most likely a fastball or change (82% chance) and if he's a righty it's most likely a fastball or slider (71% chance, so more balanced here). Stuff+ can rank his fastball however it wants. But, so far, his fastball has been hit hard and it's a problem because he doesn't have a deep repertoire. He throws his fastball 40% of the time so it's not a crazy high percentage, but it's enough that the numbers he's giving up are concerning for his ability to reach his ceiling. He has time to adjust and he's already working on that with adding the sinker. His book isn't written. He just got to the bigs. But the fastball numbers are definitely a concern at this point. And it has been a known concern. It's why he's been working on adding other pitches since he got into pro ball.

Gave up a .304 BA against his fastball last year. .544 slugging against it.

I much prefer them taking chances on being competitive and trying to improve the team over doing essentially nothing like they have the last 2 deadlines. And, as is usually the case, the prospects they gave up haven't turned into much of anything (in the long run). Hajjar and CES aren't missed in the least, and Steer would be fitting right in with the current Twins lineup right now. It's quite possible the Twins didn't trade a single MLB starting quality player in this deal, and only 1 guy worthy of even being on an MLB roster as whatever "bad everywhere, but you can move him around" utility guy Steer is. Steer likely is about an MLB average bat with negative defensive value which is a solid enough 10th through 13th guy on a playoff roster, but not somebody you're overly upset over trading away. It was a solid trade, in theory. Just didn't work out because the raised injury concerns ended up being how things played out and they got nothing out of Mahle. The Reds got a really nice rookie season out of Steer and now he's struggling. I don't think this is a trade either team is losing sleep over or hanging their hat on. Pretty run of the mill in the end.

They hire and continue to employ the people who run the team. If you don't think Falvey is doing/has done a good job you have 1 person/family to blame. Ownership is vital to professional sports teams. Glen Taylor was the reason the Wolves were the worst franchise in major North American sports history just a few short years ago. Dan Snyder was the reason the Washington professional football franchise of many names was a laughingstock. The Steinbrenner family is the reason the Yankees are always competitive. The Wilfs are the reason the Vikings never blow it up (for better and worse). There's no brushing ownership off as just the guys who cut the checks. In any sport. Teams reflect the folks at the top. Dysfunctional franchises are dysfunctional because of ownership. Perennial losers are perennial losers because of ownership. It all starts at the top. Always.

I don't care if they fire Rocco. I didn't think there was anything crazy with Rocco's management last night. The Twins only scored 3 runs. If you don't score 5 runs in an MLB game you should expect to lose. If you score 3 or fewer you should really expect to lose. If you think there's a manager out there who's going to consistently win you games where your offense is only scoring you 3 runs, more power to you. I won't lose sleep over them firing Rocco. I don't care about managers. They don't make much difference to me. Talent wins. This offense isn't talented enough. But there sure do seem to be a lot of you who think a different manager could get this pitching staff to have a sub-3 ERA. That sure would be impressive.

You didn't say "three or more bad appearances by Jax." You said "If you have seen Jax last three or so appearances, you would have to admit he is struggling." And I just gave you his last 6 appearances. 4 appearances of dominance followed by 2 complete blowups. Your statement about his last 3 appearances was wrong. Before last night he'd been dominant until his appearance Wednesday. But since you don't actually know what his appearances look like individually you made assumptions and guessed at his "last three or so appearances." 7 ER runs came in his last 2 appearances. You were attempting to claim it was clear Jax has been struggling and Rocco should be demoting him. I gave you what his previous 4 appearances had been since he gave up that 2 run homer to Alvarez (which now covers 9 of those 10 ER in 3 of those 9 appearances). He wasn't struggling at all until Wednesday. He'd been dominant. 2 base runners in 4 innings pitched before Wednesday. Was Rocco supposed to demote him because of his blowup Wednesday? 4 dominant appearances followed by a blowup and Rocco needs to send him to the bottom of the pecking order? Or was it the run he gave up opening day that should have lead to his demotion? Cuz that's the other run. His stats before Wednesday were 6.2 innings, 3 earned, 10 Ks. These last 2 appearances added 1.1 innings and 7 earned. 6.2 innings with 3 earned and 10 Ks and a run of 4 innings with no earned and 4 Ks was what he was coming off before these last 2 outings. Suggesting he was struggling before these last 2 appearances is an emotional response and not based on the actual reality of the situation.

It's been his last 2, including last night. So before that it was just his last one appearance. Because his 4 appearances before that he had 4 innings with 2 base runners allowed, 4 Ks, and 0 earned runs. So, yes, many people do appear to be being quite emotional about things. Back to back blowup appearances should absolutely get Rocco's attention. But the fact that you are just randomly guessing "three or so appearances" shows that you're being emotional about it because you don't even know what his appearances have actually been and are just going off what it feels like. One of the best hitters on the planet (Yordan Alvarez) popped him for a 2 run shot in an earlier appearance so his ERA is astronomical, and with the Twins offense being what it is these days any runs given up by the pen means Ws turn to Ls and people lose their minds. Jax hasn't been the Jax we were all expecting after the last couple years. Hasn't been automatic. His last 2 appearances have been absolutely abysmal. But pretending like it's been appearance after appearance after appearance and it's crazy that Rocco hasn't demoted him is the emotional response right now. Because it's been 2 appearances, including last night. There's still nearly 90% of the season left, folks. Buckle in. As it turns out, baseball is a long season.

I wouldn't say "nothing" like those teams, but this is the key difference, in my opinion. They are similar to those teams in many on-field strategies, and the pitching development strategy is essentially exactly the same as Falvey helped develop in Cleveland, but the Twins don't replenish their farm with trades like those other teams do. It's a little complicated, though. Because the Twins shouldn't trade as many guys as those teams do because they spend more. Part of why those guys don't win championships is because they trade the Lindors, Burnes, and Snells of the world. The Twins can afford to keep more of them. And Kepler isn't them. He's not bringing back the kind of prospect return those guys do. So, the equation is, or should be, a little different. But I fully agree that they aren't the same because they so frequently let guys go for nothing in return instead of trusting younger players like those teams do and moving vets for more shots at prospects to fill their farm. They also simply don't develop position players like Milwaukee and Tampa do. And to be fair, they did trade Cruz for Ryan, so they traded one veteran, technically.

The claim for Miranda isn't that he was hurt during his time with the Twins. It's that he hurt his hand while shopping at Target on Monday. Nobody is blaming his poor play on injury.

This offense lacks talent. That shouldn't be super surprising to anyone. When Buxton and Correa faceplant out of the gate and Lewis is on the IL they're going to struggle to score runs more often than not. This is worse than it should be, but not by much. Isn't this what many of us spent the whole offseason saying? They didn't add any real offensive upgrades. Bader was brought in to be more than just a platoon bat and isn't worthy of being an essentially everyday corner bat. France has been as good as anybody could've hoped. Gasper has been a 29-year-old rookie. The rest of the lineup is what it is. Wallner has been short on HRs but has been as expected. Miranda, Castro, Larnach, Jeffers, Julien have been inconsistent with some towards the bad end of their inconsistency to start the year and some towards the good. Vazquez has been awful. Keirsey hasn't played. Lee just got here. If Rocco thought he was going to have this particular lever to pull, him and Falvey were fooling themselves. This is who this team always was from a talent standpoint. This team isn't young. They shouldn't need this "earn their spot" strategy (at least in the way I'm reading it). Jose Miranda is 26 years old and turns 27 during the season. Julien is 26. Wallner is 27. Larnach is 28. Keirsey is almost 28. Jeffers is almost 28. Castro is 28. Lewis is touching 26. Martin is 26. These guys are in their primes. They should be established by now. This is part of the problem with the combination of giving average at best vets so much run over actually young players and injuries to your young players. You're still trying to decide if guys in their primes are worthy of everyday jobs. If you weren't/aren't sold on these guys by now you should've been doing way more to replace them than you did. You should've done way more to reform this roster.

The not playing full games and DHing every other game was their way of extending spring training for a couple weeks for him. As I said, they said on the broadcast yesterday the plan is to take those handcuffs off this week. Take that however you want.

Martin is hurt so Emma better be better than Martin on 1 hammy or he's really not their second best prospect!

Who says the reason he isn't playing OF is because of the TJS? He's thrown the ball max effort in games multiple times and has likely been throwing max effort in rehab for months. The Twins use their guys in positional ways many people disagree with. Like I disagree with them using Mike Ford at 1B to start nearly every game which pushes Yunior Severino to the OF where he has no business being which plays a role in somebody like Keaschall not being out there. I don't see a lot of people on this particular thread saying he should be promoted yesterday. And if they disagree with him not being promoted yet I'm pretty sure they could also disagree with him being used for only 7 innings per game.

I'd be surprised to see Rocco fired this early in the season, but I don't think a list of candidates for replacement is necessary to come up with because they wouldn't hire an outside person to replace him. It'd be an internal promotion and there wouldn't be any added staff. With that being said, it'd be an interesting (to me, at least) thought exercise on how much credit you'd give to Tingler or whoever replaced him internally if they fired Rocco. If the Twins ended up winning 90 games, 80 games, 70 games, whatever the total ended up being at the end of the year what amount of credit do you give to a guy who was already part of the original staff? Would likely depend on how noticeable of a shift there is in on field strategies. But I don't see them firing Rocco this early, and really don't see them bringing in someone from the outside. As someone who believes talent wins and managers have a pretty minor impact on team win-loss records I'm not surprised that there aren't a lot of examples of teams that fired their managers early and saw drastic turn arounds.

They said on the broadcast yesterday that the plan is that the playing time handcuffs are coming off this week. And the Julien/Buxton comps are pretty over the top. He had Tommy John. Buxton's durability? Really? Come on. And he's a much better defender than Julien. It takes 1 game of watching him in the field to see that. You don't have to be a professional scout to watch the 2 of them field and see that they're very different defenders.

His swing looks better as he's flattened his VBA so he has a fighting chance against non-fastballs. And we're seeing that in his contact quality against breaking stuff. Now he needs to get back to being patient. I don't expect him to OPS .840 again, but I don't think .775-.800 is an outrageous expectation for him. He's working on adjustments. If it takes him an offseason to make them every time he's doomed, but he failed significantly for the first time in his life last year. He got his offseason reset and now he's working on combining everything. From there it's about making little adjustments over and over for the rest of his career. Eddie is a talented guy. He needed to revamp his swing, and he did. Now he needs to find the balance in his approach. He's gotten too aggressive. They don't want to take away his incredible eye, they want to dial it in. Attack pitches over the heart of the plate early, but not every strike is worth swinging at. I've had my doubts about Eddie since 2023 and advocated for him to be traded after that season because of his swing (and defense). Overhauling a swing is hard. But he's adjusted it. His approach was never his major problem, his swing was. He's given himself a chance now with his swing changes. Now we see if he can dial it all in. Going to take way more than 30 trips to the plate to figure that out. Things look pretty promising so far, though.

Kyle Teel for Walker Jenkins?! Come on now. This wasn't a 17 vs 25 situation in the draft and they aren't "virtually identically rated" now. Teel went 14th in the draft but the Twins should've taken him 5th over one of the 5 consensus elite prospects just because he was a catcher? That's an awful draft strategy. Fangraphs is the lowest (to my knowledge) on Jenkins. They have him at 16th. They have Teel at 50. Their FV on Jenkins is 55. Teel is 50. Teel is the 9th highest rated catcher on their board. They have 15 catchers in their top 100. Jenkins is #3 on MLB's list. Teel is 30. Overall grades of 60 and 55. Teel is their 3rd catcher, but they have 14 catchers in their top 100. Keith Law has Jenkins 4th, Teel 37. He has 15 catchers in his top 100. Teel is 6th on his catcher list. Baseball America has Jenkins 5, Teel 52. Baseball Prospectus has Jenkins 5 and Teel 45. These guys are not the same and catchers are not that scarce. Jenkins was an elite draft prospect and is a top 5 global prospect on every list but 1. Teel is a good prospect. They are not the same and drafting Teel over Jenkins or trading Jenkins for Teel would be an absolutely mind-boggling move.

Fair enough. But I don't think he's a bad fielder. Not a gold glover, but he's an upgrade over Julien and Gasper, in my opinion. He's about average from what I've seen of him. Nothing special, but certainly not embarrassing.

FYI, Keaschall has been playing 2B every other game to start the season for the Saints. He's playing the field.