chpettit19

Defense absolutely matters. I agree with your stance there, but I think Kepler straight up for either of them is pretty reasonable.

So you want the young pitchers to come up and have bad defenders in both corners of the OF and a bad defender in CF if Buxton gets hurt during a time when 90% of hitters are trying to lift the ball and hit it to the OF? Bold strategy. I think you're drastically underestimating the importance of defense. The '03 Marlins, '04 Sox, '09 Yanks, and '11 Cards are the only teams since '03 to win the world series with negative defensive runs saved. Starting the youth movement is 1 thing, but setting up your young staff for failure by backing them with negative defensive assets all over the field is dooming the youth movement before it even starts. Defense matters. A lot.

What's the alternative to waiting for 1 of those guys to take his job? Isn't it handing the job to a lesser player? And that's not even mentioning that you really need 2 of those guys to eclipse Kepler since LF is currently wide open. So 1 of those guys first needs to prove they're capable of taking the wide open corner out field spot and then you need a second guy to come up and be a 2 WAR player from the jump. Larnach is the only one with a real shot of out hitting Kepler right now. Lewis, Martin, and Celestino are the only ones with a shot of even being an average fielder let alone a gold glove caliber guy like Kepler.

The expanded rosters in April may be a natural timeline for a really poor performance from any of the pitchers. Anyone who has a terrible April should be worried about being on the chopping block come May 1 when rosters go back down to 26. If nobody has a bad April we'll all be very happy and 2 guys with options will be very sad they have to go over to St Paul.

The philosophy change has already taken place. The question now is whether or not they've been successful in implementing the change. The current FO set up new technology and coaching throughout the system to implement a new strategy for developing pitching. The arms are now arriving and we get to see how well they did implementing their plan. Ober was a good first sign, but the real test is if they've produced someone for the top of a rotation and then if they can develop multiple guys for the top of the rotation. The change has been made and this year we start seeing if it's been well executed.

I'm with @jmlease1. If this wave of prospects produces 5 starting pitchers out of Ober, Ryan, Canterino, Winder, SWR, Balazavic, Sands, Strotman, Enlow, Dobnak, Duran, Henriquez, Jax, and Vallimont they are in amazing position. They'd have all of those guys on league minimum type deals for 3 years plus arb for 3 more. That gives you 6 years to replenish the system. I'm not predicting they're going to get 5 good starters out of that group so nobody tell me all the problems with each guy and how they're doomed. Just saying that's the wave approaching the majors at the same time and if you produce 5 homegrown arms from 1 wave you're the envy of the league and you have years of cushion before you need to worry about the next wave arriving. If you get 3 out of that you're still in great shape. If you end up with 1 you're pretty well screwed. If Jeffers, Miranda, Kirilloff, Martin, and Lewis take the C, 3B, 1B, LF, and SS spots for the next 5/6 years to go along with Buxton in center and Polanco at 2B (for most of that time) you have a ton of time to replenish the position player prospect pool. If you end up with just Kirilloff, Buxton, and Polanco you're in a far tougher spot. The Twins have done well timing a wave all at roughly the same time. That's the goal with every major league team. Produce the core of your team through your system and have them all arrive at the same time. That gives you a cheap core and you can plug the holes with veteran MLB players. The question isn't at all whether or not the system will be depleted from 2023-2028 it's whether the major league team will be. If the major league team flops because they developed no core players they're doomed. If the major league team is good because they developed their own core players the system doesn't matter for a handful more years.

Colome really did a number on the psyche of Twins fans.

At this point I wouldn't expect them to pick up his option, no, but I guarantee you part of their evaluation of Kepler is WAR. It's their internal version of WAR, but it's absolutely part of the equation, and a big part at that. Even in his down year last year Kepler was a league average hitter while providing elite defense in RF (95% in outs above average) with the ability to cover CF as well. He's not a top of the lineup hitter, and Rocco has done him no favors by continuing to force him into those spots, but he is absolutely a bargain on the deal he's on.

I'd be incredibly pissed if the Twins did that deal. Where does this improve the Twins at all? You're basically suggesting trading Kepler, Arraez, and a prospect for Paddock. Sanchez and Caratini are a wash. Sanchez has drastically higher upside with the bat while Caratini is solid, but unspectacular defensively compared to Sanchez being a complete disaster behind the plate. And at this point the Padres are going to have to pay (in both money and prospects most likely) to get rid of Hosmer's contract. I wouldn't trade Kepler or Arraez straight up for Paddock let alone both of them. If they're trading Kepler and Arraez and a prospect for an arm it better be significantly better than someone who had an ERA over 5 in 108.1 innings last year.

Think you're selling Kepler short here. He's been a 2 win player each of the last 2 years even with his poor hitting those seasons. With 1 win generally being viewed as worth $8M he's been worth $16M each of the last 2 years while being paid $6.25M (I'm extending his 48 game numbers over the full 162 for 2020) and $6.5M during those seasons. He's set to make $6.75M this year and $8.5M next year. Even if the Twins pick up his $10M option in 2024 he'd be on a discount even if he simply maintains his performance from the last 2 years.

Michael Conforto.

That was a sarcastic response based on a lot of back and forth earlier, not an actual thought.

Faria being out of options makes his path harder. Stashak, Jax, and Romero all have options left so he'd have to be seen as a long-term piece for the season as a whole and not just an extra long man for April. Unless the Twins are ready to lose one of the other 3 on waivers now plus Faria at the end of the month. Seems like poor asset management to me so I'd think he's a long shot. I'd take Garlick over Rooker as well. At least Garlick can mash lefties and he's not good defensively, but not as embarrassing as Rooker out there. I just don't see the fit on the roster for a player like Rooker. I don't know that I'd even be all that scared that he'd be claimed on waivers. Somebody would have to see an elite bat in him and I just don't get how anyone sees that. But I've been wrong before. I'm not as animated about Cave as others, but I don't ever want to see him in a Twins jersey again. He doesn't bring anything that Gordon doesn't and I'd rather have Gordon's speed and ability to play the IF as well as OF. I'm clearly not a Rooker fan either, but I'd even be mad losing Rooker for Cave. There's no position players left to DFA to get Cave on the roster. His only hope should be a 60-day stint from multiple other OFers.

I went 80 to 89, but wouldn't be totally shocked by something in the 70s. I think they'll get creative with pitcher usage and the offense should be able to carry them a little while they should be average to plus defensively at C, 1B, 2B, SS, CF, and RF when Jeffers catches and Kirilloff plays first which I think will help the young arms. I'd guess in the 82-85 range, but there's a whole lot of variability so who knows.

Yeah, I stated that in a small sample size it'd be considered bad luck but he's done it for so long that it's now who he is. I'm not attempting to claim he's likely to see a drastic jump in his BA (until next year maybe). But a player who is above average in literally every batted ball offensive category should be impactful. I think you're really underselling what it means to even be "pink" in every category while mixing it with "deep red" defensive ratings. If you showed someone his baseball savant page and asked them to predict what sort of slash line they have they'd guess much better than Kepler. It's what makes him so interesting, and disappointing. I'm not a Rooker or Wallner believer. I'll take Wallner's glove over Rooker's, but to me he's just a left handed Rooker with the bat. Don't think either of them hit enough to be a DH or to make up for their lack of glove in the OF. I do hope they prove me wrong, though. Rosario is intriguing to me. I want Kirilloff at 1B full time starting in 2023 (if not part way through 2022). But overall the corner OF spots that were viewed as a real strength of this organization the last couple years are looking far more questionable now. But they're far easier spots to fill externally than SS or SP. I'd love to see them get crazy and go sign Conforto.

I've seen a few people post this idea, and openly admit I've put 0 effort whatsoever into trying to track down these rumors, but I don't get why the Yankees would have tendered Sanchez if the plan was to DFA him in the spring. I know 8M is basically nothing for them, but wouldn't they just have non-tendered him if they didn't have any plans to have him on the team? It's possible they'd already spoken with the Twins and/or other teams about dumping him in a deal to bring back a "bad" contract or salary dump from another team I guess. I just think they planned to have him on their team for 2022 or they wouldn't have tendered him an 8M arb deal. I'm guessing they planned to use him as their 2nd C behind Higashioka, but I just don't see the DFA angle.

He's one of the most interesting hitters in baseball. His batted ball data is all above average. His baseball savant page is full of red (good) numbers. But he gets no hits. It's quite interesting. In a small sample size (one season let's say) most front offices would view it as bad luck and see him as a buy low candidate due for positive regression to the mean, but he's done it for years so it just seems to be who he is. So your eyes really aren't lying to you about how he appears to be in at bats. Next year will be very interesting for him and I hope he's still on the Twins for it even if he's the 4th OFer because younger guys have come on the scene. As the left side of a platoon with no more shifts he could be quite good. But for now I want his glove in RF as much as possible with the question marks on the mound. Give them all the help we can.

That's pretty much where I'm at other than Moran instead of Winder. Wonder if they'd like to get Winder regular starts in AAA (not to mention suppressing his service time) and have a 3rd lefty in the pen to start the year.

He's been worth 2.4, 1.9, 3.5, 4.0, 1.1, and 2.1 bWAR since he came up for good in 2016. 1.3, 1.5, 2.7, 4.5, 1.0, 1.9 fWAR. Teams generally look to get 1 WAR for $8M. He's making 6.75 and 8.5 this year and next. He's been worth those numbers every year of his career (even the shortened 2020 season when he reached the 1.0 WAR plateau in just 48 games). I think people underestimate the impact he has on the game. I agree with others that the real problem is Rocco trying to force him into the leadoff spot or the heart of the order. If he's hitting 7-9 in the order fans would be less upset about his batting numbers since the expectation wouldn't be that he's one of the stars on the team. You can absolutely win with Max Kepler in right field. Especially if the no shift rule in 2023 results in a boost to his BA.

Baseball contracts are guaranteed so he most certainly won't be cut as the Twins would have to pay him anyways, and he'd have no reason to re-do it so the only option would be a salary dump trade.

I haven't said he should start in the bigs. I haven't said he should move positions yet. I haven't even predicted he would be up before September in this thread. You guys are all arguing against things I've literally not said. A poster said the only way Lewis is up before September is bad things have happened and he'd be playing above his level like Larnach and Celestino had to do last year. I am simply stating that it is entirely possible that a kid with his skill set and physical abilities could have made drastic changes to his game by doing something like changing his leg kick (news flash: HE DID!) during an entire season where he did nothing but work every day on his game with his coaches. I don't get why this is such a controversial thing to say. Jose Miranda had never done anything in the minors and changed his game over 1 offseason to have an incredible season last year that should've lead to his debut. Akil Baddoo had played 29 games in 2 years with a .683 OPS in high A before having a .766 OPS in the majors last year. All I'm saying is that it's entirely possible that a prospect of Lewis' level can make a jump and it's possible he reaches the majors before September of his own accord and not because the team has failed or injuries have ravaged the entire lineup. I seriously don't get why that is controversial. I'm not predicting it I'm saying it's possible. Seems pretty standard.

He will start the season at SS in St Paul is the latest I heard. He can 100% be a failed shortstop without ever playing a single inning of SS for the Minnesota Twins. I am neither calling for him to start in the majors or to move to RF right now. I'm literally just saying there's a reasonable chance that a kid with his physical gifts is able to make his way to the majors from AAA in less than a year. And a slugging percentage 40 points higher is not drastically better. It's better, but certainly not drastically. A guy slugging .550 would've been 9th qualified major leaguers last year. A guy slugging .590 would've been 5th. That doesn't make up for defense, base running, OBP, and every other part of the game. 40 points of slugging is not a lot.

If Buxton gets 5 runs for 40 HRs hitting behind Arraez and Polanco how many does Correa get for hitting 30 behind Arraez and Polanco? My quick math says it's about 4 runs. And you're suggesting Buxton can get 4-8 runs by hitting in front of Polanco and Correa. So to gain 1 extra run by Buxton being behind Arraez and Polanco instead of Correa being behind Arraez and Polanco you want to sacrifice 4-8 runs. This is my entire point. Buxton's HR's aren't that much more than Correa or Polanco's.

Is the rule about requiring 13 position players still there? To my knowledge it is so I don't think they even have the option to go to 12 position players. I think they'll carry 15 pitchers for the first month and then drop 2 of them while having the same 13 position players until injury and/or performance dictate a callup from the minors.

I notice that the stats for my side of things equal "potential" but you're guaranteeing 5 more runs for the stats on your side. Both are just percentage chances. But 1 is the potential for 7-8 runs and the other is potential for 5 more runs. I am reducing the runner on base rate for Buxton, yes. But you're ignoring that the 59% chance just switches to Correa instead if Arraez and Polanco are hitting in front of him so his 30 HRs compared to Buxton's 40 get the boost while also having the boost of having Buxton on base during some of the ABs that Correa doesn't hit a HR. So you're really looking to boost Buxton's 10 extra HRs. That's my point. You're all amped up about Buxton's HRs as if he's the only power hitter on the team. That's my entire point. The Twins have 4 or 5 other guys who are all expected to hit at least 30 HRs if healthy. Buxton's HR advantage over his teammates isn't as big as his speed advantage. If the Twins lacked for other power hitters I'd move him down. They don't. The entire team is built to slug outside of Arraez and Gordon. You're hoping for the right timing on those 10 extra HRs to gain 5 more runs on them. I'm hoping for every ball put in play while Buxton is on base to lead to extra bases and runs. Even if it's only your 5 verse my 7-8 I'll take my 7-8.