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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Love it.
  2. chpettit19
    This is different. That's why there's so many complaints. This is using brain instead of tradition. Which is why there's so many complaints. Teams have more data now than ever before and they've adjusted based on it. There are subtle differences with how each team deploys their pitching staffs. Some like a traditional closer who always throws the 9th if the lead is 3 or less. Some like matchup based usage. But they all use "brain" to determine how they want to use their staff. The complaints come from people who don't understand the "brain" usage or just don't like how the came is played now. There's a difference between not having a brain and backbone and not doing what certain segments of the fanbase want you to do. Believe me, the Twins have far more "brain" than all of Twins Daily combined.
  3. chpettit19
    That's just the challenge of competitive sports, though, isn't it? Just like shooting 3s is an NBA-wide model now. It's the best way to score, but the challenge of team building is getting enough guys who can do it. The Twins challenge is to get enough bullpen arms to make the model work. I'm certainly not predicting a great bullpen this year, but the FO and Rocco have shown they can get very good production out of their pens and staff in general. The good pens the Twins had weren't exactly littered with top end, highly paid players that everyone was excited about before those 2019 and 2020 seasons, but they were top 5 pens those years anyways. It'll be interesting to see what they can do with them this year. Last year the pen was great after Rogers went down. Pens are weird that way.
  4. chpettit19
    They've actually had very good bullpens, and pitching results in general, under Rocco and Wes. First half of last year obviously wasn't good, but the pen was top 10 after June. 2019-2020 combined they were 2nd in all of baseball in fWAR for pitchers. Even with last year's disaster they're 9th in baseball in pitcher fWAR during Rocco's tenure. 12th in baseball in FIP under Rocco. 15th in ERA (were 7th in 2019 and 2020 combined). They're 14th in baseball in starters innings since 2019. 12th in bullpen ERA (were 9th in 19 and 20). 8th in bullpen FIP (were 4th in 19 and 20). The Twins pitching has been top half of the league without a doubt, and mostly top 10 in baseball since Rocco took over.
  5. chpettit19
    The average start for American League teams last year was exactly 5.0 innings. The National League didn't have the DH then so it's a different situation and I won't use their stats. You're literally arguing against the entire baseball industry. Every team is expecting 4 innings out of their pen every single game (on average). This is how baseball is played now. This is not just a Rocco thing. It's not just a Rocco and Roberts thing. This is how baseball is played now. Not saying anyone has to like it (I don't). But people need to stop complaining about Rocco when it comes to the length of starts. Every team in major league baseball does the exact same stuff. Every. Single. One.
  6. chpettit19
    It's interesting that people still say pulling starters early is a Rocco thing. You literally just watched the best organization in baseball pull a future HOFer 6 outs from a perfect game after 80 pitches. This isn't a Rocco thing, it's a baseball thing.
  7. chpettit19
    He's pretty clearly done for the day. High fives all around in the dugout and your best reliever warm in the pen generally means the end of your day.
  8. chpettit19
    The FO is absolutely a large part of the decision making on these things. Winder not being good last night changed some plans would be my guess. The Correa/Buxton situation is something I hope was not a pre-planned situation. If they plan to take them both off the field defensively in more games this year by choice I'm going to be pretty upset about that. Doesn't make any sense to me. But that then gets me wondering why Correa was taken out last night and isn't in tonight. Hopefully he's back Friday and we all forget about these awful, rainy games the last 2 days.
  9. chpettit19
    Why? Why would David Popkins have been coaching somewhere other than A ball? Maybe he didn't want to be coaching in AAA and preferred working with more raw prospects even if he had the ability to coach the more refined players. How many games had Baldelli managed before the Twins signed him and won 2 straight division titles with him while he maintained a .547 win percentage through his first 3 seasons? What's the "typical" path of a major league hitting coach? Why was James Rowson a minor league hitting coordinator and not a AAA hitting coach before the Twins hired him? (he had been the hitting coach for the Cubs briefly, but was also hired after being a minor league hitting coordinator) If he'd have been a AA hitting coach before this year would you blame the early ABs on that?
  10. chpettit19
    Is the argument that him coming from college caused him to be ineffective in his 3rd year in the league, but not the first 2? The point is that the hitting coach coming from A ball likely has nothing to do with any hitter performances in the first 5+ games of the season.
  11. chpettit19
    They hired a guy from college ball to be their pitching coach and that's gone pretty well.
  12. chpettit19
    I'd honestly like a reporter to ask Rocco about it after the game and see what he says. They're all pro baseball players and on a competitive team you should be expected to win some games without your stars all on the field at once, but I really don't get why you'd take them all out at the same time. I was surprised they played Buxton in CF last night. I thought DHing him last night in the nasty weather would've made more sense. Then could've DHed Correa today and kept Buxton in CF today. Hope this isn't a sign of things to come and the weirdness of last night is what caused this and the plan isn't to regularly sit/DH them both in the same game.
  13. chpettit19
    I'd love to know the thought process behind taking out your best defensive catcher, platinum glove SS, and platinum glove CFer all in the same game. I get they want to rest people and last night got to be a late night, but I'd like to have kept an elite defender somewhere up the middle for Paddack today.
  14. chpettit19
    Sano is in the top 15-20% of major league players basically every year in walk percentage. He's not on Dunn's level, but he's taking a solid number of walks. I don't love him and wouldn't hesitate to trade him in the right package if I were the FO, but the talk of him being some black hole in the lineup is wrong. He's absolutely a weapon when he's hitting in the 6,7,8 range of a lineup.
  15. chpettit19
    You make it sound like guys who could hit 30+ bombs a year have never had careers until the nerds got on their computers and saved Sano's career. Harmon Killebrew wasn't exactly hitting .300 every year. Guys with power have been seen as valuable for the entire history of major league baseball. If going 0-fer for a 4 game stretch means someone is a bad hitter we're going to need new players every season because I'd guess every hitter in the history of baseball has gone 0-fer a 4 game series at 1 point or another. You don't have to like Sano. Not telling you you should. As I said before, I don't like 3 true outcome hitters. But not liking him or the style of hitter he is doesn't make him a bad hitter, and he'd remain in the league no matter what era he was playing in. Mark McGwire also debuted at the age of 22 and was a .247 hitter through his age 28 season. Sano was a .238 hitter through his age 28 season. McGwire slugged .503 and Sano has slugged .491. Players who hit for power have always been looked at fondly. Shoot, Adam Dunn had a 14 year career hitting .237 in the early 2000s before the "analytics" took over.
  16. chpettit19
    Baseball scouts and coaches most definitely care more about OPS than batting average and I'll bet any amount of money you'd like on that. There are definitely some takes on some of these threads that scouts and coaches would disagree with, though. That is for sure.
  17. chpettit19
    You're certainly welcome to your opinion and to use batting average as your main decision maker on such topics, but the baseball industry disagrees with you.
  18. chpettit19
    He's a prime example of expectations leading to skewed views of a player. Plus the challenge of watching 1 team the whole year and living on the highs and lows of those players without really comparing their full season performance against the full season performance of the rest of the league. Not to mention confirmation bias by those who don't like the strikeouts so remember all the strikeouts and view him negatively because they're constantly saying "see he always strikes out!" I don't like the strikeouts either, by the way. I'm not a fan of 3 true outcome players, but he's a better player than many think. Certainly has some places he could improve. He was expected to be a superstar so people are disappointed with an above average hitter instead.
  19. chpettit19
    He's actually a pretty darn disciplined hitter. His problem is missing balls in the zone, not chasing the ones out of the zone. Chase Rate percentile in the league by year: 2016- 86th percentile (higher the better as this is saying he was in the top 15% of all MLB hitters in chasing pitches in 2016) 2017- 58th percentile 2019- 69th percentile 2020- 44th percentile (not good) 2021- 55th percentile 2022- 66th percentile (obviously very small sample size) BB% percentile in the league by year: 2016- 83rd percentile 2017- 78th percentile 2019- 88th percentile 2020- 46th percentile (bad year) 2021- 78th percentile 2022- 85th percentile Whiff% percentile in the league by year: 2016- 2nd percentile 2017- 1st percentile 2019- 1st percentile 2020- 1st percentile 2021- 2nd percentile 2022- 2nd percentile So he is actually quite a disciplined hitter who takes a ton of walks, but swings and misses too much. But since he doesn't chase all that much the real culprit is his swings and misses in the zone. There's not enough data for this year yet, but last year he swung at 75% of pitches in the heart of the plate, 51% of the pitches on the corners, 19% on pitches clearly off the edge, and 2% on just horrible pitches. All of those numbers are better than league average (league average numbers were 74%, 53%, 22%, and 6%).
  20. chpettit19
    It's not broken down exactly like that, but they do measure how quick of a jump the player gets after contact, the distance covered on any individual play, the efficiency of the route they took, the percent chance that an average player would've caught the ball on an individual play, the number of times a player reaches 30 ft/sec sprinting on any play (base running or fielding), and a number of other things. It's not all available to the general public, but most of that stuff is and it all says Nick Gordon is fast enough to play the outfield and unquestionably faster than Max Kepler. His problem is he's new to the outfield and gets bad jumps and takes bad routes.
  21. chpettit19
    I believe Andrew Heaney is scheduled to start for the Dodgers tomorrow and I'd think it'd be a good time to get Celestino in there. Not sure if it'll be for Kepler or Kirilloff, but if Kirilloff has another 0-fer today I'd think Rocco would give him a day off to clear his head and let Celestino get those ABs.
  22. chpettit19
    Nick Gordon in 2021: 71st percentile in sprint speed in MLB. Max Kepler in 2021: 60th percentile in sprint speed in MLB. Celestino in 2021: 80th percentile in sprint speed in MLB. Garlick in 2021: 44th percentile in sprint speed in MLB. Gordon's problem is not his speed, it's that he'd never played OF before last year. He got bad jumps because it was all new to him. I'm not arguing he's a future gold glover in the OF, but his speed wasn't the problem, and he's significantly better than Kyle Garlick.
  23. chpettit19
    My problem with sending Kirilloff down after 3 games is that it's 3 games. If these 3 games happened in June and he was 0-12 from June 8th through 10th instead of April 8th through 10th would you be calling for him to be sent down to get ABs? Kirilloff is getting ABs in Minneapolis so I'm not sure why you'd have to send him down to get ABs in St Paul. He's also shown he's ready and capable of hitting major league pitching. His task is to adjust and get himself out of a cold streak at the major league level, not the minor league level. If he needs to be sent down every time he has an 0-12 streak he's not the player we need him to be. Everyone is dealing with the cold and he'll face lefties his whole career. The adjustment he has left to make is to be able to make adjustments to major league pitching and get himself back on track. The place to do that is the majors. He's in the 9 hole tonight which, I think, is a better place for him to get ABs and shake off some rust than St Paul. As for Buxton vs Cave glove wise, it's absurd to suggest they go from a .750 team to a .250 team based off center field defense. If that's the suggestion Sid was making in the article he was wrong and that was an article he should've known better than to write. Defense is absolutely important, but it's not 50 percentage points important.
  24. chpettit19
    Welcome! In a very basic sense I'd start with looking at runs, hits & walks, and strikeouts. I'd say 1.2 runs for every 3 innings pitched is a solid performance runs wise. 1 hit + walk per inning pitched, and at least 1 strikeout per inning pitched. So a 5 inning start (the average start in this era of baseball is about 5 innings) I'd want no more than 2 runs allowed, no more than 5 hits and walks combined, and at least 5 strikeouts to say they had a good start. But that is all just personal preferences for those numbers. As @Sconnie said, individual games are a bit tough to judge. Obviously there's some wiggle room on those numbers. Maybe there was a 3 run homer they gave up after a couple of broken bat singles and those were the only 3 guys to reach base in their 5 innings. So their WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) is under 1, but their runs allowed are over what I'd like. But generally speaking if you can get 5+ innings of 2 or 3 run ball with a strikeout an inning or so the pitcher had a pretty good day.
  25. chpettit19
    Yeah, Garlick was brutal during the spring. I'd be ok with either of them and would prefer either of them on the bench over Celestino since Celestino may have a future and is losing valuable development reps in St Paul to sit on the bench in Minneapolis. Guessing it's all a 40-man thing. They want some time to decide on some arms before they DFA someone. Wouldn't be surprised to see Garlick replace Celestino when they've decided on which pitcher to DFA.
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