chpettit19

While I hate the bad Sano we tend to see at the start of seasons, he's a career 119 OPS+ and 118 wRC+ hitter. So basically 20% above league average for his career. Even last year he was 112 and 110 on OPS+ and wRC+ despite his miserable start to the year. I'd prefer him hitting 6-9 in the lineup, but at this point he's certainly the best option for the 5 hole. And Sanchez was a 99 on both OPS+ and wRC+ during his down year last year so it's hard to put him behind Jeffers and his 83 or 82 OPS+ or wRC+ in his first extended exposure last year. I just wouldn't be interested in hoping Jeffers grows into it by putting him there before he's earned it. The other 2 have shown they can be above average ML hitters when they're going right. Would definitely like Miranda to put on a show again like last year and claim that spot for himself, though!

Jeffers in the 5 hole is a tough pill to swallow. I'd think he'd hit 9 in that order with Sano and Sanchez each moving up a right handed slot to 5 and 7 respectively. Jeffers has done nothing to earn a spot in the heart of a Major League lineup to this point in his career.

Agree with most of your points, except hitting Arraez in front of Buxton (you take away the speed side of Buxton's game by putting Arraez in front of him on base 40% of the time). And putting Miranda in LF. That's a very small disagreement, but Miranda isn't an OFer and isn't going to play there so it'd be Kirilloff in LF and Miranda at 1B. I love Buxton in the leadoff spot. Twins version of Ronald Acuna Jr. Nothing wrong with starting the game 1-0 with a leadoff bomb if he hits one. The more difficult decision for me is what to do with Arraez. I think I'd start the year with a Buxton-Arraez-Correa-Polanco top 4. Put the switch hitter at the back of the line so that I can still use the same top 4 against any pitcher (I trust Arraez against lefties more than Rocco seems to). Then it's mix and matching the 5-9 behind Polanco as you can go either Kirilloff against righties or Sano against lefties in the 5 spot for example. But Buxton followed by Arraez gives me happy thoughts about Arraez being patient enough to let Buxton steal some bags and doesn't put a slow runner on base in front of Buxton as frequently. Yes, the 9 hole hitter will likely be a slow runner as well, but they aren't getting on base at the same kind of clip Arraez is so they're not slowing Buxton down as frequently as Arraez would. I love the Buxton-Arraez 1-2 punch, but it also doesn't seem right to push Polanco to the 4 spot so that's where I have some doubt on what to do with Arraez. Cuz I also don't want to hit him 9 in front of Buxton in the 1 spot. But I think I'd start the year Buxton-Arraez-Correa-Polanco and go from there.

I love Buxton in the leadoff spot. Acuna Jr seems to be a pretty decent leadoff hitter. Buxton 1 and Arraez 2 is what I was thinking before the Correa deal. I much prefer Arraez behind Buck since Arraez is fine working deep counts and not afraid to hit with 2 strikes giving Buxton time to take a base if he wants. Buxton-Arraez-Correa-Polanco maybe? It'll be interesting to see what they do, but I like Buxton at the top.

How far down the roster are we talking here? Because of the 25 pitchers currently on the Twins 40 man roster the only guy that wasn't in at least AA last year was Enlow and he's on the 60-day. The majority of the arms the Twins are going to be throwing out there to start the year are guys who have already pitched in the majors. Winder and Duran look like the only 2 with a chance to make the majors for the first time on opening day. Otherwise Alcala, Bundy, Cotton, Duffey, Gray, Jax, Moran, Ober, Rogers, Romero, Ryan, Smith, Stashak, Thielbar, and Thorpe have all already debuted. That's 15 pitchers. Then you have Smeltzer, Chi Chi, Faria, Rodriguez, Gossett, Jurado, Coulombe, Megill, and Hamilton behind them who already have MLB service time. Most of those guys have pitched more than a year in the bigs already. So that's 24 arms in the org already with big league experience. The Balazovic, Enlow (hurt), Henriquez. Sands, Strotman, Vallimonts of the world have already been reassigned to the minors. So they're all still getting more seasoning to be called up later if they produce and jump someone in the first 24 (or 15) I named. The Rays roster doesn't look much different than that. If you add in injury guys the Twins have 26 guys with MLB experience in their org right now (according to Fangraphs RosterResource). The Rays have 30. Both team's #1s are recovering from TJ and likely out for the year. All teams had most of their prospects miss the entire year 2 seasons ago, and had many miss big chunks of last season due to arm issues. Those weren't Twins only problems. Not saying anyone should be overly thrilled about the Twins pitching situation, but the Twins have every opportunity to follow the Rays' blueprint on pitching this year. Just a matter of being able to execute that plan well. But they're not significantly less proven than the Rays.

The Rays throw out half a dozen unproven guys every year. Their staffs are built almost the exact same way the Twins are building theirs now. Waiver claims and unproven rookies. They've just been far better at getting the most out of the unproven guys than anyone else in baseball. Their 40-man roster is full of guys the average fan has never heard of or toss aways from multiple other clubs. Unfortunately they've taken some former Twins org guys and gotten way more out of them. But there's no reason the Twins, or any team, can't do what the Rays are doing. They're just the best at maximizing arms right now.

I'm guessing they carry 15 pitchers for the first month (as far as I know there's no rules on having to carry at least 14 position players of the 28 roster spots). I think we see a lot of multi-inning relief appearances from the likes of Cotton, Jax, and Thorpe at least. The Twins currently have 17 arms on the 40-man who haven't been optioned or placed on the 60-day. I'd guess Winder, Duran, and Romero are fighting over 2 spots. Or if none of them earn it Romero goes back on waivers and someone like Faria or Smeltzer takes that spot. But I'm guessing we see 15 pitchers come north to start the year and there's a lot of short starts backed by long relief outings for the first month of the season.

Oh I'd much rather have Correa, but they're not giving him a 6-10 year deal at 30-35 a year. Bogaerts is older so I'll hold out 1% hope that he only gets a 5 year deal and the Twins may be in on that. Or maybe Lindor has another bad year, Cohen agrees to eat half his money and trade him to MN for you and me and then he gets back to being classic Lindor? Lots of ways my imagination can go at this point.

Correa is going to get paid and leave. I may be mostly a Twins optimist, but I'm not crazy. Although, Bogaerts is going to get paid too so maybe I am crazy...

Rocco crushing my dreams with continuing to play them both at SS. My hope is now 2023 opens with a Martin-Buxton-Lewis OF and Bogaerts at SS. But I continue to hold out hope that we at least see 1 of Martin or Lewis in LF with Buxton and Kepler at some point this year. I'll keep speaking it into existence!

Kepler had 2.1 WAR last year according to B-R and 1.9 according to Fangraphs. He's certainly not the all-star we want him to be, but I think you're selling him quite short by focusing so much on the BA. Agree he shouldn't be blocking anyone who can put up more than 2 WAR, but I'm not sure I see that amongst anyone on your list for 2022 (Arraez isn't an OFer so I took him off the list since he'll never be the starting RFer for the Twins, same with Miranda by the way). With a wide open LF you need to actually find 2 players to cover the corners that will have better than 2 WAR in 2022 and I just don't see 2 guys on that list I'd bet on over Kepler this year. (Even if Arraez is playing LF and Kirilloff is in RF then Urshela is at 3B and he's not as good as Kepler so you still wouldn't supplant Kepler in that spot.) But I'll take Martin and Lewis in the corners for 2023 and beyond (maybe even by midseason 2022?). Although, Lewis has actually looked rather decent at SS in the games I've seen the last week so maybe he really can stick there? And Martin doesn't have the arm for RF so I have him penciled into LF for 2023. So really you're looking at Larnach, Rooker, Gordon, and Celestino. None of which I'm betting on to supplant Kepler anytime soon. Even if I'm a Larnach believer. At this point Kepler has earned his starting spot based on what the current roster includes. Whether you think 2 WAR is good enough from the starting RFer or not is a different question. But if you want to improve on that you have to look outside the org.

I haven't seen the details of the extended roster rule, but I'd bet that if there's no rule saying they can't carry 15 pitchers they're going to carry 15 pitchers and 13 position players. I'd guess opening day is 3 catchers (Jeffers, Sanchez, Godoy), 5 infielders (Correa, Polanco, Sano, Urshela, Arraez), 4 outfielders (Kirilloff, Buxton, Kepler, Rooker), 1 UTIL (Gordon). Wouldn't be shocked if they go Larnach instead of Godoy, but I think he could use a hot start in St Paul before a call up. Same with Celestino and Miranda. A lot can change over the next couple weeks, though, so who knows. But I'm guessing they go 15 arms if they can. Maybe meaning we see Winder on the opening day roster. Alcala, Bundy. Cotton, Duffey, Gray, Jax, Moran, Ober, Rogers, Ryan, Smith, Stashak, Thielbar, Thorpe then either Winder or Romero would be my guess.

Miranda isn't an outfielder and I don't think anyone should expect to see him out there. He has played a total of 3 games and 25 innings in his entire minor league career. He played all 3 of those games in August of last year and they didn't put him back out there for the last 34 games of the season. Miranda in LF and Kirilloff at 1B shouldn't be viewed as an overall upgrade on defense at all. Miranda can't play LF. So really your question is Gordon LF, Kirilloff 1B, Sano DH vs Kirilloff LF, Sano 1B, Sanchez or Rooker DH. I'd guess we see all those combinations, and many more, throughout the first month or 2 as Rocco cycles people and then it gets into whoever's playing best gets the ABs. But if Sano's bat is on it makes up for his defense.

Impressing Correa should have 0% impact on their moves. They could win the World Series and it wouldn't mean he'd pick up his option. He's opting out unless he gets hurt and won't have a shot at a huge payday. This is a 1 year deal and they should treat it as such unless they actually think they may give him a 6-10 year deal for 30M+ a year after this year. In which case they should've just done that now. That's why he's going to leave, not because of the Twins pitching. And FYI: Winder didn't pitch after 7/21 last year. Duran didn't pitch after 6/15. And Balazovic wasn't great down the stretch while pitching in AA, not AAA. Feels like some anger being directed in places that don't really call for such anger.

They're not going to have a ton of choice. Balazovic, Duran, Sands, Strotman, Vallimont, and Winder are already on the 40-man. DFAing and losing any of them without letting them debut would feel to me like awful management of the 40-man. So the only other option is to be claiming/signing players mid-season and dropping others from the 40-man (or adding to 60-day IL) or having other prospects jump those guys and DFAing others (or adding to 60-day IL). So they're in a spot where they're either going to lose their near or current MLB ready guys without actually giving them a shot or they're going to have to roll with them for better or worse for some chunk of the season. Now that doesn't mean we see them all, but it's going to be darn near impossible not to see a few of the guys who haven't debuted but are on the 40-man. I'd expect guys like Strotman and Vallimont get the first couple calls when they get to that point unless one of the bigger names is on fire. I'd think those 2 would be more expendable so would likely get some short stint shots in the majors before the other guys. Will be interesting to see what the 5 recalls rule does to how teams manage pitching. May make it harder to only use a couple of these guys since they can't be constantly moved up and down between Minneapolis and St Paul.

If we're looking at it as a "traditional" 5 man rotation and 8 man pen there's most definitely work to do. I think the FO is likely working down 2 paths simultaneously. I think they're looking for trades, but won't blow up the system for a 1 year window with the current roster. So they're also looking at ways to build an "out getter" staff. Jax and Thorpe types for 2-3 innings. Ober and Ryan for 4-5 innings. Gray for 6-7. Rogers for 1. Bundy for 3-4? Can Alcala do 2-3 innings? Whole stable of near MLB ready guys on inning limits who could do 3-5 inning stretches every 5ish days. I think we see a mix of the 2 plans as they continue to look for top end MLB pitchers, but even bringing in Montas doesn't get them to a great, or even all that good, traditional 5 man rotation, 8 man pen situation. But Winder, Balazovich, Duran, et al don't have to come up and be great starters if they only need to go 2-3 innings or once through an order. Moral of my story is there's certainly a lot to be desired with the Twins pitching when looking at it from a traditional view, but there's a little extra hope if they're only expecting guys to get through the order once instead of multiple times. How well they can execute either plan (bring in top MLB pitching or build an out-getter staff) remains to be seen, but at least there's a couple options and if you squint you can see a road to success.

If they trade Kirilloff for a pitcher with 1 (Manaea) or 2 (Montas) years of control left they should be fired on the spot.

I'm not a Rooker believer so it's hard for me to support putting him anywhere. Sano isn't good defensively, but at least he can be a difference maker with the bat. I don't think Rooker can hit and he's one of the worst defenders I've ever seen so I really don't want him out there. If I'm putting a no glove guy at 1B they better be able to do what a hot Sano can do with the bat. But Rooker will get more chances until someone claims that LF spot or he proves he really can't be an everyday DH. Certainly no sense in cutting him now. See what the kid can do and if he can prove me wrong. Just wouldn't block Miranda with him.

I'd think they go Miranda first (assuming he's in AAA at the time of the need and is doing anything similar to what he did last year). I think Miranda is plan B for any infield injury/bad performance. But they've surprised me before so maybe they try to force the square Rooker peg into the round 1B hole.

Billy Wagner style?

It's interesting to see Seager get the kind of deal Correa was expecting when he has the same, and maybe even more, concerns. Think Correa misplayed the market here. Maybe the Twins weren't the only ones surprised by the spending spree before the lockout!

I'm also confused by this take. So the Twins shouldn't sign great players? For what it's worth the analytics geniuses around the industry predict he'll be somewhere around the 5 or 6 WAR mark. So high end all star bordering on MVP level performance. And you're mad that they signed him because they drafted Royce Lewis then saw him lose 2 years to a pandemic and ACL injury? Are you suggesting the Twins should pass on signing someone like Correa to ensure they have room for a prospect who literally hasn't played a baseball game in 2 years?

Lewis claims to have run a sub-4.00 second home to first this spring which would put him as faster than Buxton. I'm not going to take that as 100% truth, but even if he's in the low 4s he's got elite speed and is touching Buxton speed. Just depends if you believe his claims. Hopefully we get a glimpse of it today as he's starting at SS and hitting leadoff!

He didn't look good.

Again, not saying Godoy is anything special or even useful. There isn't a scouting report I've seen or results I've seen that suggest Rortvedt is anything other than a glove only catcher with a below average bat. The numbers I provided were simply to show that Ben Rortvedt isn't some big time prospect or irreplaceable player. He's Drew Butera. Useful guy with a long career. I'm simply asking that people quit talking about Rortvedt like he's something he isn't. Godoy is what he is and that's a 3rd catcher who gets MLB time when someone gets hurt. Rortvedt can be slightly better than that, but we need to quit talking about him like he's some great prospect.