chpettit19

Because I don't think hitting leadoff is reducing the impact of his power the way you do in terms of maximizing the lineup. I mean you got all sarcastic about him hitting a grand slam today even though he hit it from the leadoff spot. But I don't see him hitting leadoff reducing his power impact because the difference between Buxton's power and the power of the other guys in the lineup is far, far, far smaller than the difference between his speed and the speed of the other guys in the lineup. Unless you disagree that 3Bs are more or less too random to really count on or that he's likely to hit mid-30s doubles and so are Correa and Polanco I don't see the huge difference in impact from the maybe 20 extra HRs he hits than them. How would you have set up the Braves lineup with Acuna, Albies, and Freeman? How much better do you think that 3 all-star lineup would've been if they'd put Acuna 3rd instead of leadoff considering he slugs better than both Freeman and Albies?

Crazy that it's even possible to have runners on base in front of the leadoff hitting Buxton...Should've had him 2 spots lower in the order so he didn't even get to hit that inning since Polanco got out in the next AB. That solo HR from the 3 spot would've been much better. Opportunity wasted.

Buxton being on 2nd doesn't change the fact that his speed is still a tool. I've compared their XBHs because that's been your argument for hitting Buxton lower. If his XBHs are the reason to hit him lower then the fact that even in an historic year him only getting 5 more a month should be weighted against the differences in the rest of the ABs if they're switched in the order. That's my point. Buxton needs to have one of the 20 greatest XBH seasons of all time to get even 5 more XBHs a month than those 2. But he can take advantage of everything else those guys do with the bat while they can't take advantage of the other things he does. You want to hit Buxton in front of the decline part of the order. That means fewer chances to take advantage of his speed to take advantage of 5 extra XBHs a month in the hope that he has what 5 extra runners on during those ABs? So they score an extra 5 runs a month from those 5 XBHs? I want him in front of the peak of the order so that any single to the OF scores a run with him on 2nd. He takes 3rd on almost any single to center or right and is able to score on the sac flies from the weaker part of the order. He scores on more doubles than anyone one else on the team that Polanco and Correa hit. He steals 2nd and puts himself in scoring position in front of Arraez, Polanco, or Correa (I'm intrigued by the Buxton-Polanco-Correa-Arraez lineup Rocco has been running out lately, even if it means nothing in terms of his regular season plans) so he's able to score on a single that basically nobody else on the team would score on because they'd still be on first. So, again, I'll go with maximizing the 150+ times he reaches base without hitting a HR over maximizing the 50 times he does hit a HR (I'm taking the under on him hitting 50 bombs, by the way). His speed changes things every time he's on base. His power changes things only when he hits a HR (since you've shown that his doubles and triples have minimal impact beyond anyone else's doubles and triples). And since there's no reason to think he'll hit drastically more 2Bs than Correa or Polanco the only real difference are HRs and 3Bs. I'm not taking 3Bs into consideration at all as they're mostly results of guys with Buxton's type speed (and that means he needs the guy in front of him to be fast enough to score if there was someone on 1st for that AB) or defenders misplaying balls. So really it's the HRs. So there's a 20 AB difference between peak Buxton and regular expectations for Correa and Polanco. I'd rather take advantage of the havoc Buxton can cause on the bases and the extra attention paid to him by pitchers while they're facing Correa and Polanco with him on base than try to add a few extra runners on base in front of his 20 extra HRs.

None of those guys got a single MVP vote simply for their power. That was your argument when you brought up Hamilton. You turned a reasonable claim of Buxton's speed being a good fit at the top of the lineup (by another poster, not me in this case) and turned it into a claim that the only tool that poster cared about was his speed and ignored the actual stats they put on their post and what they were trying to say by bringing up Hamilton. You created a strawman by claiming anyone on this entire thread has said the only tool they care about is Buxton's speed. Nobody has said that. In fact I've over and over again explained how I'm balancing his speed and power tools in where I want him in the lineup. But you chose to compare him to a bad baseball player who is only fast as if that's something anyone was saying about Buxton.

Who will be on first base after their AB more Arraez or Jeffers? You're changing between the stats you want to use regarding being on first. Earlier you said it'd be 5 ABs a month in Arraez's favor so that's what I've contended with. I've given you the breakdown in the difference of XBHs between Buxton, Correa, and Polanco. You've conveniently ignored all of that. I've given you a season in which Buxton hits 50 HRs, 35 2Bs, and 10 3Bs. That'd be 95 XBHs for Buxton. There have only been 15 instances in the entirety of baseball history where a guy had 100 XBHs in a season so I'm giving you quite the season for Buxton. And he's still only getting 3-5 more extra base hits a month than Correa or Polanco. I want to optimize the lineup, not just Buxton, for the entirety of the season. I will sacrifice those 3-5 extra base hit results each month in the name of the faster player being in front of multiple other players with the best chance to hit for extra base hits since he can do the most damage on their XBHs on the base paths. If the next best hitters on the team weren't Correa and Polanco I'd feel different. But if they're each getting 65 XBHs this year I'm taking Buxton in front of them over them in front of Buxton because he can take advantage of those better than they can take advantage of his 95 in his "one of the greatest seasons in the history of baseball" season I'm giving you. Or let's do it this way...you're trying to take advantage of his 95 XBHs and maximize those. I'm trying to take advantage of his 35 doubles plus his 10 triples plus the 100+ other times he reaches base. He had 42 extra base hits last year. His speed could be taken advantage of in 23 while the 19 HRs didn't matter how fast he was (although inside the park HRs are a thing with him...). I want to take advantage of 23 of his extra base hits plus the 49 times he reached base via 1B, BB, or HBP.

You said Hamilton would be fighting for MVPs if it was about speed. That's ignoring the entire rest of the player Hamilton was. Ichiro won an MVP with almost no power. Yes, there was less emphasis on power 20 years ago, but he was receiving MVP votes as recently as 2010 and he was a no power guy, but was a great overall player. Hamilton is a 2 tool player (glove and speed). It's 100% a strawman to bring him up in relation to MVPs. Kevin Kiermaier received MVP votes in 2015 with 10 HRs. Power was pretty important to teams then. Altuve had 13 HRs in 2018 and was receiving MVP votes. Andrelton freaking Simmons was 15th in MVP voting in 2018. Merrifield right behind them with 12 HRs. David Fletcher slugged .425 in 2020 and received MVP votes. Correa slugged .485 just last year and finished 5th in MVP voting. And those are just for AL MVP voting. Billy Hamilton in the same sentence as "MVP" is a strawman.

Archer has been throwing in Arizona and following a normal ST schedule so he is up to 60 pitches in a game already. Or at least that's what they're claiming. So he's on pace with the rest of the rotation, and perhaps even ahead of Gray in terms of pitch volume.

Miranda has not been seeing much time as a starter in spring from what I've noticed and it feels to me like he's already pegged for a St Paul start. If you were considering him for Minneapolis you'd want to be getting him many more ABs against the top arms and not having him be the late game replacement facing guys further down the other team's roster. Gordon is out of options so I'd be shocked if they kept Miranda and tried getting Gordon through waivers.

Very good article. I think the Twins are taking into account far more than just velocity and trying to take a "whole picture" approach to their pitchers. Ryan is a fastball specialist, but not for his velo. Gray relies on his fastball a lot (nearly 60% of his pitches thrown last year were fastballs), but not because of his velo. The smart front offices are looking for elite pitches, not simply velo. Velo can help make a pitch better, but even Ober throwing in the low 90s is deceiving in terms of velo because of his extension and how close he releases the ball. The biggest surprise in all their pitcher moves was actually not bringing Wisler back last year. I'm quite excited to see what the prospects turn into. That's the real test of their philosophy. Being able to develop guys on a consistent basis by maximizing their current repertoire while adding some velo through technology and mechanical tweaks. We'll finally see if they've created a pipeline and their refusal to pay big for pitching will pay off this year.

You didn't describe my way of thinking at all. In fact you described the opposite of what I was saying. I never said they should move Lewis off SS to a corner OF spot if he was capable of playing SS. My quote was "I have him pegged for RF IF HE CAN'T STICK AT SS." I also said he's best served playing an up the middle position if he reaches his ceiling as you get more out of him up the middle than on the corner. You're not even arguing against anything at all that I've said. My point about his slugging was that the other poster's stance of Lewis not hitting for enough power to play a corner was incorrect. Lewis is projected to hit for power. Miranda and Sabato are IFers and have no future as corner OFers so I'm not sure why you'd even bring them up beyond you arguing against something I wasn't even saying. Wallner is projected as a cOFer, but he will never have the speed or glove of Lewis so he'd need to hit drastically better than Lewis to earn a spot over him. Lewis is the best hope for a SS of the future who is close to MLB ready. Nobody is arguing that. That's why I said "if he can't stick at SS." If he can't stick at SS because of his glove, but still hits, he's more than capable of playing any OF spot because of his speed and athleticism. In fact we saw him play CF very well in the AFL. Correa is leaving after this season, but that doesn't mean Lewis is automatically the SS in 2023. I hope people are not so naïve to believe that you have to play Lewis at SS in 2023 just because Correa leaves and the team couldn't bring in a different SS if Lewis proves uncapable of sticking there.

The alternate site wasn't real games, but it was real baseball. If he spent the entire time there not working on things I'd think the Twins would've traded him knowing he's never going to turn out if he wasn't even willing to work on things there. He spent an entire year with coaches reworking his swing (as shown by his leg kick being far less pronounced this spring) and working on his fielding. If they watched him that entire season and saw no progress they should've traded him for anything they could get. And I didn't say, or suggest, that players simply improve just because time passed and they aged either. The original comment I responded to said the only reason he'd be up before September is if bad things were happening. Akil Baddoo hadn't played real ball in basically 2 years and was terrible in the last season he played before being claimed in the rule 5 last year and he was successful. I'm simply stating that it's entirely reasonable that a prospect of Lewis' caliber could progress during an entire year with professional coaches doing nothing but working with him every single day on the struggles he'd faced and could get his footing quite quickly in the minors this year and be up in a month or 2 because he's earned it.

You're the one who brought up Billy Hamilton in comparison to Buxton. I was just extending your strawman.

And Buxton is going to slug above league average. The point was that you picked 2 awful, 1 tool players to try to prove your point. Yes, power is more impactful. The point you're ignoring is that the Twins have power. In 8 of 9 lineup spots. They have speed in 1. Your complaint is that Buxton will hit without guys on base too often, but you think 9 Gallos wouldn't be hitting a ton of solo bombs?

I don't want Buxton hitting with the bases empty and I even mentioned the bonus of Jeffers being a power hitter who is likely to be on second and not first when he reaches. And mentioned Jeffers being in front of Buxton when he hits lowering his slugging, but not his ability to score from first on doubles. My example on Buxton's streaks weren't about getting on base they were about power. He's going to go on hot streaks where he's hitting a ton of HRs and "cold" streaks where he's still hitting, but isn't getting the HRs. You're misrepresenting what I said. I left out Trouts injury history, yes, but I'm pretty sure Buxton has a pretty sizable history of injuries as well which is why I used Trout as the example. And even if I add in triples for Buxton you're looking at a handful on the season, not 20 or something. They are far more random than the doubles and HRs so I ignored them. Like how he had 0 last year in his massive slugging campaign you want to use as his baseline. So I'll give you 20 more HRs than Correa or Polanco which means Buxton is hitting 50ish bombs this year. Plus 10 triples more than Correa or Polanco which is highly unlikely, but you can have it anyways. So he gets 30 extra XBHs compared to those guys (in fewer PAs than at least 1 of them who's hitting in front of him). The season is 6 months long and you told me he'd only get 5 extra PAs with nobody on first (I've never said I don't want guys on, I said I don't want a singles/OBP machine like Arraez in front of him on first at a .375 clip) during that time and that means it's a waste. Those 30 extra XBHs he'll get over Correa or Polanco give him 5 extra XBH a month. But leaves him behind slower runners (like Arraez) a higher percentage of the time with guys hitting behind him with lower chances of getting any sort of hit to take advantage of his speed. So our desired extras cancel out yet you've also canceled out the ability to use his speed more often by having the next 2 best hitters on the team behind him being able to take advantage of his speed. The point is that the difference between Buxton, Correa, and Polanco in terms of XBHs is not big enough to counter balance not being able to take advantage of the tool he has that nobody else on the team does. Unless you think he's hitting more than 50 bombs and 10 triples.

Yes, but I picked actual good power hitter while you're choosing terrible speed players. How about 9 Gallos vs 9 Whit Merrifields or any other actually good speed player?

And using those 560 PA in 2019 only assumes he made no progress in 2020. I'm simply stating that there's a reasonable chance that he's progressed and could progress more in the next couple months and surpass the current options in LF and RF without anything bad happening.

Why does Lewis debuting before September mean bad things happened and he's playing above his level? Why can't it be that he came out hitting like he did the last time he was on a professional field in the AFL and he overtook players on the Twins roster and earned his spot?

We're not reducing that tool. He can still hit for power in the leadoff spot. I expect Buxton to not be able to keep up a 50 HR pace. Which means he'll slug less. We need to go out of our way to ensure guys maximize their tools, like speed, because that's how you score runs and win games. The KAT comparison doesn't work. You can either shoot a shot from the post or a shot from 3. You can't do both. Buxton can both hit for power and use his speed at the same time. It's not an either or situation. There were absolutely times when he was on first for a double and didn't score. But he's still got the best chance to score from first on the team. It's interesting to me that you're good with him down in the order where he won't get as many PAs in general. I think a solo homer is worth more than not getting to hit at all. The stretches where he's on fire and hitting bombs once a game for a week will come and go with the stretches where he doesn't hit any for a week. His ability to run really fast around the bases won't go away all year. The expectation is that Buxton, Correa, and Polanco all hit for power and slug, is it not? Correa and Polanco around 30 HRs and Buxton around 40 sounds realistic to me. Doubles all relatively close to the same number (mid-30s). Trout has maxed out at 75 combined HRs and doubles so I'm not going to bet on Buxton going more than 75 combined HRs and 2Bs this year, which means he is slugging less than he did last year when he was on pace to blow that out of the water over a full season. If he hits at the pace he was last year for a full year it doesn't matter where he is in the lineup cuz he's having a literally historic season. So we can more or less expect generally the same number of doubles out of the 3 hole no matter which one of those 3 are hitting there. Buxton gets an extra 10 HRs on the year. So you want him hitting lower to take advantage of 10 PAs over the course of the season. Shoot, I'll give you 20 extra homers in which case you're worried about those 20 extra PAs over the course of the season (3.3 per month) while you question me caring about not just the 5 extra a month with 1B clear for him, but every time he's on base with the team still having the same chance of a double being hit by the guys after him as if he were hitting and they were on base instead. If you accept that all 3 of those guys are going to hit mid-30s doubles (assuming health and all that) then the only real difference between which one is hitting 3rd is who is on base in front of them to take advantage of those doubles. I'd prefer Buxton be the one in front of those 35 doubles to score as many runs as possible on them. Not to mention him being on 2B after his doubles to score on their singles.

Then Martin being pegged in LF should be far more upsetting than Lewis. Martin is far less likely to hit for power than Lewis. The hope with Lewis is a 5-tool player in the mold of Byron Buxton. That projects anywhere on the field, but you prefer them up the middle to fully take advantage. Now if you don't think Lewis hits his ceiling it's a different conversation. But the type of prospect Lewis is and the kind of player the Twins are hoping he becomes is one that profiles anywhere on the field. They hope he's AFL MVP Lewis that slugged .565 with 12 XBH in 22 games.

If simply hitting for power makes someone an MVP Joey Gallo and Miguel Sano would be in the conversation every year. Ronald Acuna is in the discussion for MVP every year and he was hitting lead off in the NL behind pitchers. I think it's hard to argue his talents weren't being fully utilized. At the end of the day, though, the Twins top 4 or 5 will be quite good no matter what order you put them in (assuming they're healthy and producing as expected).

I don't expect Buxton to lead the league in slugging over 500+ plate appearances. I do expect Buxton to be in the top 5% of fastest guys in baseball for 500+ plate appearances. As they say, speed doesn't slump. The Twins were 9th in all of baseball in slugging last year. Their entire lineup (outside of Arraez) is built to slug. The one everyday player they have with big time speed is Buxton. I'm going to emphasize the skill that isn't replicated by the rest of the lineup. He may be the best slugger on the team, but his advantage over Correa, Polanco, Sano, etc. in his slugging is far smaller than his advantage over them in speed. Not to mention part of his slugging being built on his speed. Turning singles into doubles is part of what boosts his slugging. Buxton can take advantage of the slugging in the rest of the lineup better than anyone else so I want him in front of all the other sluggers. Especially the really good ones. I'll go back to Buxton scoring on a Polanco double is better than Polanco being on 3rd on a Buxton double. So it's not just having the bases clear in front of him to take extra bases on his hits or steal bags, but to score on plays nobody else would even if there was a guy in front of him. Jeffers on second and Buxton on 1st for a Polanco double scores 2. Jeffers on second and Polanco on first scores 1 run on a Buxton double. I'll take the 2 runs over the 1. And, yes, if clear bases in front of him an extra 5 times a month leads to the team scoring even 1 more run that month then I want that.

I have him pegged for RF if he can't stick at SS. Not sure why his value and bat in LF is not very high, though? You'd prefer him as a 5-tool, up the middle player, but a 5-tool corner OFer is still awfully valuable.

Why are we listing Rooker with the infielders? Have I missed a statement where they intend to make him a 1B? He's still listed as an OF on the Twins site and I don't remember seeing him play any 1B yet this spring, but I certainly could have missed that.

How many of those 2Bs were singles for 99% of other hitters? How many bases did he steal (9) vs could he have stolen (because there was nobody on 2nd) after those 49 single, walk, or HBP appearances at 1B? How many times did he have to stop at 2nd on a ball in play he could've gone 1st to 3rd on because the guy who was on 2nd couldn't score ahead of him? How many of those doubles could've been triples had a guy not had to stop at 3rd in front of him (likely 0 or 1, maybe 2, but still)? I wouldn't be upset with an Arraez-Polanco-Buxton-Correa-Kirilloff top 5 (or any order of those 5 guys), but I think simply looking at times he ended up at first after an AB vs 2nd or further is missing a lot of base running opportunities where his speed could be used to gain extra bases, and extra runs, by not being slowed by Arraez (or another high OBP, slow guy) being in front of him on the bases. If they didn't have anyone else who could slug it'd make more sense to me to drop him, but slugging hasn't been the Twins problem under Falvine, manufacturing runs has. Buxton without a base clogger in front of him is their best option to manufacture runs. And I think hitting him leadoff gives you the best opportunity to have him with freedom on the bases. To me the Twins have a lot of guys who can slug and very few who can run so I'd do what I can to free up the guys who can run to actually be able to take advantage of that skill. Hitting behind guys who are unlikely to be only 1 base ahead of Buxton gives the Twins the biggest chance to take advantage of his speed. And since Correa and Polanco (and I think Kirilloff) are more than capable as 3-4-5 hitters for driving in runs I think you gain more advantage by having Buxton free to take advantage of their extra base hits. Basically Buxton gets further along the bases on a Polanco (or Correa) double (or single) than Polanco (or Correa) does on a Buxton double (or single) so I'd put him ahead of those guys to take advantage of those extra bases he can take. Polanco on 3rd with Buxton on 2nd after a Buxton double isn't as good as Buxton scoring and Polanco on 2nd after a Polanco double. But at the end of the day if those 5 guys are hitting the way we all hope, and expect, them to they should be able to produce a lot of runs no matter what order you put them in.

I don't think the 9th hole hitter's speed is as important if it's not someone like Arraez. I don't want Buxton hitting directly behind Arraez who gets on base at a .375 clip while hitting for minimum power so is mostly on first when he reaches as opposed to someone like Jeffers who gets on base at a .285 clip but hits for more power so is less likely to be on first really slowing Buck down. There's always going to be someone slower than Buck in front of him, but I'd rather have that slow guy on first less often. I think Arraez after Buxton frees up Buxton to do a lot more with his speed while the Twins have Polanco and Correa to be the XBH guys driving in Buxton and Arraez. If the Twins didn't have Polanco and Correa it'd be a different story (and the offense would be so incredibly bad), but with those 2 (and Kirilloff who I think will end up in the 5 spot for most of the year) behind Buxton and Arraez I think it produces more runs. If Buxton reaches and Arraez doesn't Buxton is still scoring from first on a double from Correa or Polanco. If Buxton doesn't reach, but Arraez does you're not really keeping Correa or Polanco from turning a single into a double or a double into a triple as they aren't that kind of fast, but you still have a guy on if one of them pops one into the seats.