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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    I have very little doubt that Ryan is a major leaguer, but I'm not sure he's a long-term starter. He feels like a righthanded Josh Hader to me. I see him coming out of the bullpen and being able to throw multiple innings or coming in and getting an important K when needed. No reason to make any kind of move to the pen yet, but that's where I see him ending up in the long run. Just think multiple times through the order and guys will get on top of that FB better and balls will be leaving the park too much to be a sustained starter for his career. But he deserves every chance to prove me wrong!
  2. chpettit19
    I'm confused by this idea that signing Story likely means a JD trade. There's no financial reason why the Twins would have to trade JD if they sign Story. There's nobody left on the pitching market who's going to cost massive amounts of money and they have plenty of payroll left before they even get close to what the payrolls have been the last few years. I actually agree with how you list their future positions, but I don't get why that'd mean they need to trade JD. He plays 3B and DHs this year as Miranda gets his feet wet at some point. Sano leaves after this season and JD is primary DH with some stints at 3B to give Miranda a day off here and there throughout 2023.
  3. chpettit19
    If the Twins trade the guy who may have the most upside of any of their pitching prospects and a guy who's probably top 3 in ceiling for their position player prospects for Taylor Walls I'll never watch another Twins game in my life. That would be an epic overpay.
  4. chpettit19
    It's been proven time and time again that home road splits for Colorado players don't mean anything. Arenado had some gnarly home road splits too, but I'm pretty sure St Louis is more than happy with his gold glove, 121 OPS+ performance for them last year. The home/road splits for Colorado players can basically be completely thrown out. It's easier to find hits in Colorado because there's so much extra OF grass, but it's harder to hit on the road when breaking balls move different. There's plenty of data to show that the first 3 games after playing in Colorado leads to worse hitting for every team (so teams who play a series in Col and then go to another place to play also hit worse the first few games as they adjust). Story is by no means a sure thing, but his home/road splits aren't the concern.
  5. chpettit19
    Why would anyone think the Twins would extend any pitcher they traded for? Unless that pitcher is willing to take a very team friendly deal I just don't see how anyone could think the Twins would extend them. They didn't extend Berrios and they didn't just pay for a FA. Why would we think they're going to trade legit prospects and then pay money to extend them when they wouldn't do it for Berrios or any of the FAs? There are no pitchers worthy of big money left on the market. Not signing Story more than likely means they just aren't going to spend to the same place they have been the last few years. They don't have enough openings to sign a bunch of guys and add them to the 40-man. The White Sox wouldn't risk Rodon accepting a 1 year, 18.4M qualifying offer so I don't know why other teams would be thinking he's worth that, or more, when the team who knows him the best and is trying to win a World Series wasn't willing to even give him the QA. Story is the only player left on the market that would make sense to spend on and is even remotely possible.
  6. chpettit19
    It wasn't a mistake at all. As bean points out it wasn't much of an extension at all really. What it was was cost certainty. They didn't have to play the guessing game with arbitration from year to year and knew exactly what his payroll number was going to be. Every team wants that, even if they end up spending a little more than arbitration would've cost them. There was (and oddly still is) hope that he'd be a higher average player than he is and if that'd have happened the deal would have been a steal. This is how it works. There's a risk/reward balance to all contracts. He's maybe underperformed his deal slightly, but it's not like he's making $20M a year or anything. I don't like judging contracts in hindsight. The thought process at the time was sound and the contract was more than reasonable. It's a good deal I'm sure many here complaining about it wish they would've been able to do with Berrios. They reached agreements with Polanco, Kepler, and Sano at roughly the same time. That group of deals has been very good for the team. They get 3 legit major league players for a more than reasonable cost with certainty that allowed them to spend more on someone like JD since they knew any of those 3 guys blowing up would've caused skyrocketing arbitration prices. That was good asset management.
  7. chpettit19
    Canterino looks like a top of the rotation guy if he can stay healthy. He's the guy I have the most hope for from a pitching ability view, but there's concern with every Rice pitcher who played for Wayne Graham. To the point that I question how he was ever able to get top arms to go there (to be fair he developed a large number of not highly recruited guys). He retired in 2018 so we can have hope that Canterino was saved from the full force of the Rice pitcher abuse, but who knows. Kid is legit if he stays healthy.
  8. chpettit19
    I know this is the time of year for these types of articles (Gleeman and Hayes just did one on The Athletic, too), but I don't get the point. The offseason isn't just not over, it's not even happening right now. There's a 0% chance this is the opening day roster.
  9. chpettit19
    Kepler has a career 18.4% K rate. League average is 22%. He was in the 62nd percentile for K rate last year. Ks aren't really his problem. Career 10.2% BB rate. League average is 8.4%. His problem is his BABIP. He doesn't get hits because he hits balls on the ground into the shift too often.
  10. chpettit19
    Agreed the Twins need to do everything they can to see if Duran can stick as a starter, but he feels like a reliever to me. And I don't see that as a bad thing. If he can go 2 innings at a time with his 100 MPH fastball and low 80s "splinker" he'd be a great weapon out of the bullpen. Teams are moving more and more towards building staffs of "out getters." The ideal is still having a staff full of deGrom, Scherzer, Bieber, and Buehler types, but those guys are special and not growing on trees. For teams who can't (won't?) spend 25+ million on a starter the strategy is to get a collection of guys who can get outs and figure out how many outs they can get on a regular basis. Is it once through the order? Twice? 1 inning? 100 pitches? what is their ability and what can their arm handle. It feels like the Twins will go this way a little more this year as they have so many arms on the 40-man who have no MLB experience and don't have great innings numbers after the last 2 years. The playoffs last year will give teams even more hope in this strategy. The 2 teams in the World Series both went pretty hard on the "out getters" strategy in the postseason (for various reasons).
  11. chpettit19
    I'd be more than happy with Royce taking the SS spot in Minneapolis for the next 10 years, but I have these images in my head of a Martin-Buxton-Lewis OF on opening day 2023 that takes away extra base hits all day, every day and I think I'd prefer a Story-Polanco MIF with that OF if signing Story is a real possibility. With the league going more and more to lifting the ball and looking for extra base hits I'd love an OF featuring 2 of the fastest guys in the game and another incredible athlete in LF. But those are all hopes and dreams at this point.
  12. chpettit19
    I think he was terribly mismanaged last year. First by the Blue Jays and then by whoever let him go to the Olympics and not throw a single pitch. After not throwing a competitive pitch in 2020 he should've started at high-A for the Blue Jays and taking 6 weeks off in the middle of the season to throw 0 competitive pitches and not even be around his developmental coaches was terrible. I look at him as basically a brand new prospect after these last 2 years. I don't know that I'd rank him significantly higher or lower than this on my list, but I'd view him as basically a new draftee/signee. His track record is completely wiped out for me after the last 2 years. Fresh start and let's see what he looks like this year.
  13. chpettit19
    This year's Akil Baddoo. Except he'll actually be in a Twins uniform.
  14. chpettit19
    Have to disagree with the premise here. The concern of high-effort delivery and head violence is repeatability of delivery and we have decades worth of data on that being a real concern. It doesn't mean nobody can make it (Scherzer is a great example), or that a team should try to make any massive changes to a pitcher's motion because of it, but it's important information when discussing possible pitfalls a prospect may face and what their future holds. The Twins didn't draft Petty in the first round with the plan of completely reworking his mechanics, but they know it's harder to maintain command and control when your head flies out (I don't see as much of that with Petty as guys like Keith Law seem to) and/or you're throwing max effort every pitch. Petty looks to be a very good athlete and he seems to work very hard at his craft. He doesn't need to throw 100 on every pitch and that'll be something the Twins work with him on to increase his chances of him staying a starter. High-effort deliveries make it much harder to get your plant foot in the same spot, your arm in the same slot, and keep your hand where it needs to be in relation to the ball (among many other things) on every single pitch. And that's what makes the great pitchers great. Repeatability. He may be a Scherzer-esque guy who can go all out every pitch and maintain command and control, but it took Scherzer a long time to finally lock that in and become the guy he is now. High-effort delivery and head violence are absolutely things that should be noted in scouting reports and can be real problems. Doesn't mean they have any intention of blowing up his delivery or changing anything at all, but it's things every scout and coach in pro baseball looks at and something they'll look to tweak if he starts to struggle.
  15. chpettit19
    I'm yet to see any scouting report that doesn't think he has the arm, range, or hands to stay at short. The question is his bat. His upside is tied to his ability to stay at short because people don't think he'll have the bat to profile at a corner spot. But at this point I don't see anyone suggesting he's likely to outgrow the position or have to move off SS for his glove or arm. My understanding of Owen is that he could play SS (but would be slightly stretched there), but Cleveland had just traded Lindor for 2 young shortstops and have a number of other young short stops as well so they don't feel the need to play him there. He was a 3rd round pick out of college while Noah is a first round comp pick out of HS. People feel Noah has the higher upside.
  16. chpettit19
    You're sort of making my point here. You suggested age was important and provided a chart to explain why. I said there's more factors, but obviously the younger the better. I then provided examples as to why just going off the age of prospects is leaving a lot out. Now you're doing what I suggested in the beginning and using more factors to explain why age is important, but not all that important since there's all these other factors. I don't get why age is a "huge difference," but then suddenly it isn't for Lewis, or Torkelson, or Rutschman, or any of 100 other guys I could list if I wanted to take the time. My point is that it's better to have guys reach the majors at a young age, but to simply say "this prospect is too old so he should be dropped in rankings" is leaving a lot out of the equation. And you've provided many other factors as to why you can't simply look at Torkelson, Rutschman, and Lewis' ages and compare them. Which has been my point from the beginning. Plus the fact that we're currently looking at a list of prospects that we should be happy if they even make the majors which means their ages matter even less. I mean just comparing Rutschman and Torkelson you can make the argument that their ages don't matter. I think Detroit would trade Torkelson for Rutschman straight up right now, but Adley is a year and a half older, and been in the minors longer. So age is a factor, but not much beyond the idea that it's better to have them there sooner. Enjoy your weekend as well!
  17. chpettit19
    But if we're talking ages then their draft year doesn't really matter, right? So Torkelson will debut at 22. If Royce Lewis debuts before June he'd debut at the same age, but people view him very differently since he was drafted well before Spencer. Time in the minors vs age are 2 very different things to me. That's why age isn't that huge to me. And that's why I keep saying there are far more variables and rankings are more complex. And the Rutschman vs Wallner comparison was one I was never trying to make. The Rutschman example was simply a response to the idea that the age of a prospect is uber important. Wallner is not the same kind of prospect. Never was. That's a comparison of the #1 prospect in baseball who was drafted 1.1 vs the guy TD ranks #13 in the Twins system. The expectations for them are very different. That's why I keep bringing up the fact that we're talking about the #11-15 prospects in the Twins system. These rankings are literally saying the TD writers don't have great hope in Wallner. They're saying they'll be happy if he makes the majors and has any sort of positive impact at all.
  18. chpettit19
    I'm not a Wallner believer so I don't disagree with your stance on him. But there are a lot more factors that go into these things. And to me its more about us currently looking at prospects #11-15. Top 5 system prospects fail more than they succeed so #11-15 should really not be expected to do much. If anyone on this list (Miller excluded as he was just drafted out of high school) becomes a legit ML contributor to a contender we should be very impressed. Celestino as a 4th OFer would be a very nice result. Sands and Louie turning into solid relievers would be a win. But there's just so many factors. Louie was drafted in the 15th round in 2019 out of the same college where I played, and I'm no major leaguer. Him even being mentioned as a possible major leaguer is a win already. He was drafted, missed the entire covid year and saw himself rocket into prospect rankings in his first professional year. I don't care if he's 35, that's a good enough track record to get him to #15 in a system for me.
  19. chpettit19
    For sure. The true stars of the game tend to make themselves known early in the minors and burst onto the scene quick. I'm by no means arguing that age means nothing, but Torkelson and Rutschman are big time prospects that people expect to be elite players and one turns 23 this season and the other is already 24. I think those are 2 great examples of the covid year playing a role. I'd love to see the Twins turn some of their recent international signings into young stars. The trick is balancing the high risk, high reward with the more "sure thing" guys. The Twins have tried to recently, but the high reward guys haven't looked good recently (I have hopes for Lewis this year, though). And I agree much of this is more on the position player side than pitchers. I'm not concerned about the age of any of our arms. They're a different kind of beast.
  20. chpettit19
    I wasn't comparing him to anyone or saying we should view the Twins prospects in this post the same way. Simply an example of age not meaning as much as we sometimes think. Spencer Torkelson is turning 23 this season and I don't think anyone is concerned about his age either. That's why I brought up the covid year. They were both effected by that. I think the bigger thing is how you view the guys we're talking about in this specific post and range of prospects. We're not talking about the top 5 prospects in the system we're talking about 11-15. They're guys you hope make the majors and can provide some sort of productive performance. Or if they're young like Miller you hope they work their way up the rankings. Nobody is building a team around the idea that their #11-15 prospects are their core and will be all stars. If your "excitement" (for lack of better word) about any of the guys on this list is based on them being a future all star you'd obviously be very disappointed. That's not who we're looking at here. Especially with the older guys.
  21. chpettit19
    Wonder what covid year will do to those numbers over the next 5 to 10 years or whatever. It is interesting to think about how we view prospects. We certainly all want everyone in the Twins top 20 to turn into All Stars, and it gets a little wonky when we start discussing these guys as just pieces to a major league team. Debut age based WAR (or stats instead of All Star appearance in general) would be an interesting look as well. There's only so many All Star spots to go around and it's even further reduced when it comes to position availability. I'd argue there's far more star players at SS than C, but you miss a bunch of those SS stars when just looking at the AS team. Interesting things to look at, though. I think everyone can agree that the younger the better when it comes to debut years (assuming the debut is earned and not out of injury necessity or something like that). But I think age can also be overblown. For example, Adley Rutschman is pretty universally thought of as the top prospect in baseball right now and he's 24. Service time and covid have played a huge role in that. If he played for a playoff team he most certainly would've debuted already, but the O's had no reason (other than the integrity of the game, but who cares about that?) to play him on terrible teams and start his clock.
  22. chpettit19
    The interesting thing I'm following with all the young arms is who moves to the pen. I think 2022 will see some very creative pitcher usage, and am curious as to how all these young guys are used. Varland, Sands, Strotman, and Duran all feel like bullpen pieces to me. Which isn't a bad thing in my mind. They've all shown they can sustain for multiple innings and I'll be interested to see how they're used in 2023 and beyond as the FO tries to balance out more traditional starters/relievers and some new creative pitcher usage. I'm not sold on Wallner and he'd be much lower on my list. The power is real, but I don't think he'll hit for enough contact to take advantage of it. With the numerous corner bats they have I think he gets pushed aside. Maybe he goes back to the mound as others have mentioned. Not a bad backup plan to have available. Celestino was impressive at AAA and I hope he's able to use that as a springboard into taking over the 4th OF role at some point in 2022. Miller feels like he's in the right spot to me. Real chance to stick at SS as he progresses, but no super flashy tools. Feels like a 10-15 type prospect to me. My hope for the post-lockout Twins is that they sign Story and I think it plays in well with Miller's timeline as he's not going to be ready for a number of years most likely. Story for 4 or 5 years and let Miller become part of the fold at the end of Story's deal with a natural handoff to Miller (assuming he develops. Keep drafting SSs until one makes it).
  23. chpettit19
    A .364 OBP is pretty solid plate discipline for a guy who hit .214. And at the age of 18 in his first ever professional season. Also, it was a 37 game sample size. Let's settle down a little. A large part of prospect ranking is projection. Looking at tools and guessing what future performance might be. Crushing a kid who should have still been in high school for having some initial strike out issues against professional pitchers seems a little ridiculous. As @roger points out, he was signed during the international signing period in 2019 and had no 2020 season. The 10 HRs and 23 BBs in 37 games was quite promising.
  24. chpettit19
    You can't have it both ways. Either they have options on this team or they don't. You don't get to list Martin, Lewis, and Gordon as better options and then say they aren't options. And I have every expectation that Royce Lewis will debut and play SS for the Twins at some point during 2022 if they don't sign Story or trade for a long-term SS. And both Gordon and Polanco played SS for the Twins last year so writing them off completely seems misguided at best. In fact Simmons was the only SS on the Twins roster to start 2021 which gives every reason to believe Polanco was their Plan B for a long-term injury at SS since they had nobody in the minors with the track record of success that Beckham has. Beckham's OPS+ over 5 major league seasons is 98. He's almost the exact definition of league average. He had an .876 OPS in AAA last year. That could drop by 100 points in moving to the majors and he'd still have been above average. I don't need names of current FAs. Give me an idea of a guy you think would be willing to take a minor league contract who would be a significant improvement on Tim Beckham. Ehire Adrianza? That type of guy? He's had an OPS+ of 100 or better 1 time in 9 seasons and that was a 103 in 83 games for the Twins in 2019. Better glove for sure. But his career OPS+ is 84. That's the level of player we're talking about here. He signed a $1.5M deal with the Braves last year at the age of 31. Beckham got a minor league deal this year at the age of 32. One is a solid glove/bad bat utility infielder. The other is a solid bat/bad glove utility infielder. Your expectations for minor league contract players are far too high. He's minor league depth. So, like I said at the beginning, we need to have some perspective when we're talking about these deals. The offseason isn't over. We have literally no reason to believe Tim Beckham will be anything more than the Saints opening day SS in 2022. If the lockout ends and the Twins don't trade for or sign a SS better than him then you can freak out. Until then all he is is minor league depth. And as far as minor league depth goes he's better than your typical AAA SS.
  25. chpettit19
    I think they'll share a bunch of the DH duties in 2022. When Sano is hot he'll be in the lineup everyday. When he's striking out 75% of the time he'll get time off. The Twins have the flexibility to rest guys and sit guys when they're cold. At least around the IF. With JD, SS yet to be brought in, Polanco, Sano, Kirilloff, Arraez, Gordon, and Miranda I'm not worried about injuries with the IF.
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