chpettit19

That's basically what I'm trying to say, but you said it more clearly. The Twins had numbers on both guys, but they aren't set in stone, just hand the guy the contract after he's drafted numbers. They had a very educated guess on what they think it'd cost them to sign them both as Sunday night progressed, but that doesn't mean it's a lock Prielipp is getting signed. They obviously like their chances to sign him or they wouldn't have taken him there. But, until he signs on the dotted line, there's definitely a chance he walks away and chases a top 10 slot next year.

Yes, I said multiple times in that post that the Twins likely knew his number before picking him and had a plan to get both him and Lee signed. But they also didn't expect those 2 guys to be there at 8 and 48 and it may have become a much more tight window they are trying to squeeze through. They talk with 100% of the guys they're looking at in the top 10 rounds to get an idea of their demands in order to sketch out a plan and then make decisions as things come up. But Prielipp likely didn't think he was falling to #48 and maybe he's mad, or feeling disrespected, and his number changed. Maybe Lee was mad he fell to 8 and his number changed. They had ideas and clearly felt they could/can make the pool money work. But it's never a done deal until the players sign on the line. They didn't call Prielipp Sunday night to discuss his demands again as he started to fall. They talked to him before the draft and it's far more likely they were talking about what it'd cost to take him at 8, and, while that may seem inconsequential to us, that's a big difference from going #48. We're still talking about humans and they have emotions and that can change things. Maybe he was willing to come to MN at a certain price if he was a top 10 pick even if he really didn't want to be here, but at 48 he doesn't have the prestige of being a top 10 pick so he will demand more to come to a place he doesn't want to be. Maybe his personal goal was to be a top 10 pick and he's willing to wait another year to make that dream come true. The Twins absolutely know what they're doing, but that doesn't make this all a done deal. There are guys every year that don't sign for a variety of reasons.

Not surprising he wouldn't come back from surgery and pitch at the end of the season. Not just for health reasons, either. He would've been rusty and stepping into games against elite competition that'd been playing all year and not rusty. His goal was to set himself up for his pro career, yes, but that doesn't mean he's not going to be demanding big money and be willing to walk away if he doesn't get it. Maybe he'd go back to school, maybe he'd do independent ball, either way he has options. Whether it's college or independent ball doesn't matter, what matters is he has options and could/would/should not sign if the Twins don't offer him top 15-20 (or whatever him and his representatives think he can get) money. He'd have a chance to be pick 1-1 next year if he comes back as the pitcher he was pre-injury. Then you're talking $9 million. Juniors refuse to sign all the time when they aren't offered what they want and re-enter the draft the next year. This wouldn't be an out of the ordinary occurrence.

Do you know him? I mean generally speaking every kid in the draft wants to be a pro asap, but that doesn't mean they all sign, or would sign for less than they think they deserve. If I were going to bet I'd guess he signs as I'm sure the Twins knew what it'd take to sign both Lee and him before they drafted them and knew they could fit them both in with their pool money. But I wouldn't say it's a for sure thing. He wouldn't have to go back to college if he decides not to sign. They'll have to offer him what he wants (again, I assume they knew what that number is and feel comfortable they can hit it) or he'd certainly think about going the Rocker route and hiding away for the next 8 months before throwing a couple independent ball games and skyrocketing up boards if he's showing what he was as a freshman. Prielipp has leverage and will not sign just because he wants to be a pro now. He's going to get his money. The parameters of a deal were 100% discussed before the draft, but it was likely about the possibility of him going 8th overall, not 48th so his price will be high.

Yeah, the injury stuff is interesting with this FO. I love Prielipp at 48. I think that's a perfectly fine spot to take a shot on a guy that could've been taken 1-1 had he stayed healthy. Many said his slider was the best individual pitch in the draft and that makes me pretty comfortable that he's at least a bullpen weapon even if his arm can't handle a full starter workload. But he's got Chris Sale upside with his FB/SL combo so I think his incredible upside is a nice balance with Lee being more of a high floor, but not out of this world ceiling at 8. Now hopefully he holds up and moves relatively quickly and he replaces Castillo at the front of the rotation in 2024. A guy can dream at least ?‍♂️

Where are you seeing Parada grade out higher than Lee? I don't think I've seen a single scouting service grade Parada over Lee in any category outside power. Parada is no more likely to stay at C than Lee is to stay at SS. I mean Fangraphs lists him as a LFer because they have so little faith in his ability to receive, block, or throw.

I was watching the MLB Network airing of the draft and Dan O'Dowd had mentioned at 1 point that he'd expect a number of teams to take him off their board completely because they simply wouldn't draft someone off bullpens and no game action for so long. It sounds like a reasonable enough reason for him to have fallen so far. I think the Twins are going to have to work some pool money magic to sign him and Lee, though.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here, but I believe Aug 1 is the deadline for signing draftees. So he'll be somewhere playing for the Twins within a few weeks, assuming they sign him. And I'd think they'd be a little aggressive with him to give him a real shot at getting AA PAs at some point this season.

Man, Twins draft a consensus top 5 prospect at 8 and there's still boards filled with people being mad about it. Hard to fathom. Parada is just as likely to stick at catcher as Lee is to stick at short so take that into consideration when complaining about not taking him. "I know you don't draft for need" followed by a complaint that they didn't "draft for need" is a fun little game to play. The Twins got what almost every scout in professional baseball thought was the best pure college hitter in the draft with the 8th pick. Why can't we just be happy about that? It was a fantastic first night for the Twins and that started with getting Lee at 8.

Why are we talking about Celestino, or anyone, as the "future centerfielder in a couple years" or the "heir apparent to Buxton when he stops playing center, sadly sooner rather than later?" Buxton is on a 7 year deal and isn't about to suddenly stop being an elite defender there. And when he does stop being elite (in what? 4 years?) he'll simply be above average before moving to average. The only replacement, or "heir apparent," you need for Buxton is an injury one. If Buxton is on the field anytime in the next 4 years he's playing CF and he'll be among the 3 or 4 best in baseball at defending there. Even injured he's one of the best defenders in baseball. I don't understand those statements at all. Gordon is not a backup CFer beyond being able to play it as part of his utility role. Celestino is a 4th OFer who was basically always projected to be a 4th OFer and is now fulfilling that role. Anyone in the Twins minor leagues at this point that has any chance of playing major league baseball anytime in the next couple years (outside of Royce Lewis) is a 4th OFer, or COFer, type, and not a starting CF type. I don't see the depth here at all.

This is great work, thanks! I think the only player I wouldn't be super thrilled with at 8 is Berry. If he was getting 70 grades on his bat instead of 60 I'd be more open to it, but he's a 2 tool prospect and if either of those don't translate well he's not a major league player. Not my cup of tea with the 8th pick. Any of the top 7 would obviously be ideal, but I wouldn't be upset with Neto or Cross as a consolation prize. Getting their pick of the best arm wouldn't even be a bad situation. They're in a good spot so I think they'll get a good prospect and be able to hand their development teams a really nice piece of clay to mold. Here's to hoping it's someone we see in the bigs in about 3 years.

Sano has a 2.75M buyout next year. He's not getting that 14M. Snell is making 12.5 this year and 16 next. Both of those numbers are higher than Sano's. SD would save 3.25M this year and 13.25 next year in that deal. Not saying they'd do it, but the money wouldn't be the reason.

I really hope there's someone better than last year's 13th pitcher taken available in this class. Bunch of arms that were rated that high until they all got hurt.

Must've missed that "hope" word hidden in there, didn't you? And I said Gold Glove. Current Buxton isn't winning any platinum gloves this year. Weird that you're on me for hoping on the 4 tool guy while you prefer the 2 tool guy. But to each their own.

This is where I'm at with things as well. I think he's the most unpredictable guy because he likely has the highest ceiling in the draft, but also the lowest floor in the top 7. If he's the one guy from the top 7 who falls I take him and hope his worst case is the Buxton we currently have, but with defense in CF everyday instead of every couple days. Gold Glove in CF, .215 BA, and 35+ bombs a year is a really useful player.

Dropping Snell's contract would be the cash considerations in this kind of deal. Snell isn't worth anything except payroll relief at this point.

I think signability stuff is going to be bigger this year than ever because of all the pitcher injuries. Is someone going to try to collect multiple top arms by taking one early for under slot? Will it be the Twins? Will be fun to watch.

I wonder what SD thinks of Cave. Would they be willing to take him in return for Snell or Clevinger? Cave and a low prospect? Lots of talk of them wanting to cut some salary midseason so I'd certainly call and see what they're looking for.

There's a need for bullpen arms in Minneapolis as well. Maybe he can catch, close, and DH? Shohei who?!

I'm thoroughly confused as to where this idea of just moving guys behind the plate came from. We don't have much for SS depth in the minors either, should we move Wallner there next if he isn't good at catcher? Matt Wallner is 6'5" tall. Grayson Greiner is the tallest catcher in MLB history at 6'6". Matt Weiters, Joe Mauer, and Larry McLean are the only other catchers I'm aware of that were 6'5" or taller. The average catcher is shorter than 6'1". The receiving techniques the Twins teach now are all based around getting as low as possible. I don't have any idea why people think a 6'5" Wallner could just pop behind the plate and catch. Why would he even be open to putting that extra wear and tear on his knees anyways?

For this season Sanchez and Jeffers are fine. They're not stars, but they're both decent enough hitters for catchers. For next year I'd be happy to see Omar Narvaez signed. I'd guess Milwaukee tries to bring him back, but if he hits the market I'd sign him and platoon him and Jeffers.

I agree in general, but at some point you have to do what's best for the team. I'm sure the idea was that he'd eventually be able to go more than 4 innings in starts. At some point he needs to do more than that. If he goes the entire season without ever stretching out beyond 4 innings I don't see anyone being willing to pay him 10 mil. To me the question is how long do they have to go along with the 4 inning starts to say they operated in good faith? If the answer is the whole season then the contract wasn't smart and all you did was handcuff yourself into a situation that hurt your team. At some point they have to be able to say "look, we gave it a shot, but you just can't give us enough as a starter and we need to make a change." And I also hope they're getting to the point in their pitching development that contracts like his aren't something they need to rely on so I'm not too concerned with guys signing them in the future. They've done their part and given him his chance to stretch out. It's been half the year. Not only has he not stretched out, but now he's on the IL. Not a serious injury from any reports I've seen, but it is just another data point showing he's likely not able to stretch out and be a 5+ inning guy. To me they've done their part and operated in all the good faith they needed to. Signing any deal is a good faith agreement that you'll let that player play that role until they show they can't. I'm saying he's shown he can't do enough to be a starter. Nobody says a team should operate in good faith when they DFA a guy under contract. Same thing here. I think it's more than reasonable at this point to discuss a role change. They operate in a risk reduction strategy with their pitching in every other sense and it's time to do it with him before that 3.08 moves its way towards his peripherals and then he's giving you 2 inning blowup starts and putting the pen in an even worse spot.

I think him continuing to fail to go more than 4 innings in his starts is hurting his contract negotiating power for next year if he's trying to get a starting pitcher deal. I'd argue moving to a closer role (allowing Duran to maintain his "heart of the order, high leverage situations" role) and being a shutdown closer for the rest of the year would fetch him a better deal than being a 4 inning starter.

Reminds me of the Maeda deal. LA used to put him in the pen in the second half of seasons and playoffs which stopped him from reaching some of his inning based incentives, if I'm remembering correctly. Not saying they were doing it to save a couple mil, just saying it's what they did.

Very true. I hope it's something that's being discussed. If he can be a legit bullpen piece (multi-inning or shutdown backend guy) and they can get Alcala back by the end of the month they could see a nice improvement on the pen without having to make a bunch of trades. I'd still like to see a trade or 2, but those 2 arms could be a huge improvement for the pen. If I were the FO I'd be looking more to bring in Castillo for the rotation than a bunch of pen arms. Reshuffle the good arms they have and add a frontend starter. That'd be my ideal move.