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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    278 pitches in 13 innings?! That was not an overly efficient outing for Mr. Ryan. 21+ pitches an inning is generally not a recipe for success.
  2. chpettit19
    A player needs to throw at least 20 major league innings and play at least 20 major league games as a position player (or DH) with at least 3 PAs in each of those games to be considered a 2 way player. A position player cannot pitch in any game that isn't in extra innings or a team doesn't have at least a 6 run lead.
  3. chpettit19
    I mean at the end of the day Polanco sees 4.26 Pitches/PA, Arraez 4.16, Buxton 4.10, and Sanchez 3.96. So they all see 4 pitches per plate appearance. I'd think the pitcher is throwing his best pitches to Buxton since he knows Buxton can take him deep if he just lays one in there. So to me the pitcher is "working" just as hard in those Buxton PAs as he is in the Polanco or Arraez PAs. Now the end results of the PA may be different, but a Buxton K on 4 pitches is just as much work as an Arraez single on 4 pitches, isn't it? We can get into things like swinging vs looking strike percentages, chase rates, etc. and say that Buxton and Sanchez could make the pitcher work even harder by not having such high swinging strike percentages, or chasing so many pitches, but at the end of the day the pitcher is having to throw 4 good pitches, on average, every time one of those 4 guys come up. I'd honestly have guessed that Arraez would have a much larger lead on Buxton here, though. The Twins K rates definitely raise their pitches per plate appearance numbers, but it's still making the pitchers work more than most teams. It'd just be nice if the end results of some of those plate appearances weren't strikeouts. Although, to be fair, the Twins are actually exactly league average in SO% (22.2%), and above average in BB% (9.0% which is 8th in baseball).
  4. chpettit19
    My comment wasn't on the general idea of fans complaining about managers/coaches, it was on the hypocrisy of some fans complaints. "Don't just follow a set plan!" followed by "Follow my set plan!" is annoyingly hypocritical. Some fans like to latch onto the term "analytics" and act like it's something new in the game and managers (Rocco specifically around here) are for the first time using a set of data/ideas to create the most effective plan as possible when in reality they just have more, and better, data than they used to so they've changed the strategies and some fans don't like it. Heck, I don't like the way the new strategies have changed the entertainment value of the game. I hate the 3 true outcomes approach and lack of stolen bases. This isn't the first time on field, or team building, strategies have changed. But "this is how it was done when I was young so it must be better than this approach" is not a reasonable explanation to me. And when people complain about sticking to a plan then counter it by suggesting the correct move is simply to follow their plan instead I'm going to call out the hypocrisy. I understand that it's a generational thing and in 20 years I'll be the guy complaining about "it worked in my day so Manager X should do it that way instead," but I'm not old enough to be that cranky guy yet so I must play my younger generation role of pointing out that change is inevitable and not automatically wrong.
  5. chpettit19
    I hear ya on things seeming certain ways because of the game to game inconsistency. Someone just corrected me in the last couple days when I complained that it felt like they were really bad at scoring guys from 3rd, when in actuality they're pretty darn good at it. The curse of a 162 game schedule I think. The negatives tend to stand out and get us all amped up!
  6. chpettit19
    The Twins have attempted 8 sacrifice bunts this year. League average is 9. So they're ever so slightly below average in that. But they are at only 46.7% in terms of advancing a runner from 2nd with 0 outs, and league average there is 50.1% so they are certainly not great at that. They have converted 6 of their 8 sacrifice bunt attempts so perhaps that's something they should use more in extras to advance that guy. Agreed that Correa isn't the one to do it, though, and after Buxton walked last night that option was pretty well gone for the 10th inning. Interesting stats just for general knowledge: There are 3 teams that currently have attempted over 18 sacrifice bunts (so more than double league average). They are Washington (21 attempts), Arizona (20 attempts), and LA Angels (19 attempts). Those 3 teams rank 21st, 23rd, and 20th in runs scored per game this year. The Twins are 14th for reference. Of the top 10 scoring teams in baseball, 4 are at or above league average for sacrifice bunts (Yankees, Mets, Padres, Rockies). Of the bottom 10 scoring teams in baseball, 7 are at or above league average for sacrifice bunts (As, Pirates, Royals, Orioles, Diamondbacks, Cubs, Nationals). The next 3 lowest scoring teams are also all above average (Angels, White Sox, Astros). You can take that info to mean whatever you want. Maybe it doesn't mean anything. Just found it interesting.
  7. chpettit19
    The Twins are 6th in all of baseball in pitches seen per plate appearance, and actually above league average. So statistically speaking they're actually very good at making a pitcher work on a consistent basis. Better than all but 5 teams, in fact. Polanco is 11th in baseball, Arraez is 22nd, Buxton 34th, Sanchez 62nd.
  8. chpettit19
    "Rocco is too stuck with his 'grand plans,' just does what the spreadsheet tells him to, and doesn't adjust for the situation! The Twins need to fire him!" "Bunt Buxton/Correa because that's what the 'grand plan' is when the winning run is on second, what the 'right way to play the game' says you should do, and who the hitters are in that situation shouldn't make you adjust the plan! I should be manager so I can follow my 'grand plans' that are obviously smarter than Rocco's!" Fans, and their thought processes, are truly fascinating.
  9. chpettit19
    Franmil Reyes was hitting .121, and slugging .121, against sliders going into that at bat. All 4 of his previous HRs came on fastballs. Along with both of his doubles. Last year he hit .219 on breaking balls and .278 on fastballs. In 2020 he hit .155 on sliders and .323 on fastballs. Has slugged over 100 points higher against fastballs each of the last 3 years. He's a vastly better fastball hitter than slider hitter. But any pitch directly down the middle has the chance of going the other way at a very high rate of speed no matter who the hitter is. Throwing a bad slider hitter sliders isn't a bad choice, it was just poorly executed.
  10. chpettit19
    I think Turner and Bogaerts being available leaves the door open just a crack for the Twins. If the Sox were willing to pay Bogaerts his asking price I'd think they already would have. From the reports out there he's pissed at their offers and he's out the door after this season. Are they good with shifting Story back to SS, or would they be willing to pay Correa what they wouldn't pay Bogaerts? I have to assume the Dodgers sign 1 of these 3 guys, and I'd guess it's Turner since they're familiar with him, but it really could be any of them. The Yankees will be interesting. The reports have been they aren't going to spend big on a SS because they have cheap ones on the doorstep that they believe in. If they come up short this year does that change? If they can't/don't keep Judge does that mean they shift to paying a SS? Can Philly afford a premiere SS? What is happening with the Cubs? Are they going to pay one of these guys what they wouldn't pay Baez, Bryant, or Rizzo? The Angels get crazy and add yet another massive position player contract? I don't think there's any chance the Twins would go 10 years, but I think there's a remote chance they'd go 7. And that may end up being enough if his market fails to materialize again. I certainly wouldn't predict a Correa extension, but wouldn't say it's a 0% chance either. Will be another interesting offseason of SS contract watching.
  11. chpettit19
    10 years, 325 mil. The most obvious comp for Correa is a 28 year old SS. It just so happens Scott Boras just represented a superstar SS that is 5 months older than Correa just last year. Corey Seager got 10 years and $325 million. Seems like a pretty obvious place for Correa to start his negotiations.
  12. chpettit19
    The hitters don't care so much about where they are in the batting order when it comes to their pregame preparation. If Arraez is hitting 5th instead of 1st he doesn't warmup any different. Garlick knows if there's a lefty on the mound tomorrow he's starting. Arraez knows if there's a righty on the mound he's starting. Buxton and Correa know if tomorrow isn't a scheduled off day for them they're starting. Sanchez and Jeffers know their catcher rotation, and Sanchez knows if it's a lefty he's DHing. Kepler knows he's playing unless it's a scheduled off day. Same with Polanco. Celestino knows if it's a lefty he's starting. Larnach knows if it's a righty he's starting. Kirilloff knows if it's a righty he's starting. Urshela knows he's starting at 3B unless it's a scheduled off day. Miranda knows if it's a lefty he's starting. Where they are in the order doesn't change anything. They know the situations they play in and what their roles on the team are. The only time their pregame preparation is different than usual is if it's an off day for Buxton or Correa. Especially Buxton. He knows those are treatment days for him and doesn't go through his normal pregame routine. Other than that these guys do the same thing everyday in preparation for the game, even if they aren't starting. Sitting hot players for a rest day is a different conversation, though.
  13. chpettit19
    I'd be surprised if they traded Polanco, but I think your timeline makes more sense than trading any of these guys in the middle of a pennant chase. I'd like them to take a shot at signing those pre-arb guys to 7 year deals and pairing that with a Correa 7 year deal. I don't think there's much of a chance they do that as they really value their flexibility (and I don't expect them to extend Correa), but if they could have their whole core locked up for 7 years of cost certainty they'd be in a pretty good spot. Just a lot of pressure on those young guys to turn into who they expect/hope they are. But, generally speaking, I think the offseason is when we see them make bigger decisions on players. The trade deadline is more likely to be small deals for relief pitchers.
  14. chpettit19
    This post is about veteran players the Twins could trade while improving their pitching depth for this season. Why would what the Twins could get back not be the focus? This post wasn't about whether or not the Twins would be willing to trade these players, or any players, but was about veterans at "positions of strength" that could be dealt for "pitching depth." Responding that they couldn't get good pitching depth back for these players is focusing on what the post was about. The author presented the topic as improving a contending Twins 2022 team by trading veterans for veterans. Your, or my, opinion on where they may go is of no factor on the topic presented by the author. He didn't say the Twins may trade veterans if they fall back and don't think they can contend, he said "As the calendar gets closer to July, Minnesota's roster looks like it will need more pitching depth to stay at the top of the AL Central." My contention is that trading anyone on this list at the deadline wouldn't improve the 2022 team overall, or, in a couple of the cases, the Twins pitching depth in any meaningful way, and laid out why I thought that.
  15. chpettit19
    Urshela: Maybe a contender throws the Twins a random middle reliever for him? That doesn't help the 2022 Twins as their entire pen is made up of random middle relievers already. Kepler: Maybe San Diego would want to get out from under some money and would be willing to give up Snell or Clevinger? Neither of those guys moves the pitching needle enough to make up for Kepler's defense alone. Sano: He's not worth anything. Maybe a 13th man on a pitching staff? Again, doesn't help the Twins in 2022. Correa: There's no feasible way trading Correa helps the 2022 team. There's no contender that would trade major league pitching for Correa. I don't even understand how his name gets on a list that's supposedly supposed to be trading from positions of strength (who's the other player that makes SS a strength for the 2022 Twins?) to add pitching depth (what pitcher that would be equal to Correa's value is a contender trading away?). He makes no sense on this list at all. Really the whole list is pretty shaky (to be kind). Contenders generally don't trade away pitching. No matter what people may think about a team's pitching depth, contenders don't trade good pitching. That's what this article is supposedly suggesting the Twins would be looking to get in return. If you're going to get a pitcher that improves the staff for 2022 you have to go to non-contenders and they want prospects, not these guys.
  16. chpettit19
    Their base running is so bad. Some of it is a general lack of speed, but much of it is just really bad base running. It's costing them runs for sure. I'm not a proponent of "get 'em over," (only time I'm trading an out for moving a base runner is if it's scoring the runner) but they are very bad at "get 'em in" with a guy on 3rd and less than 2 outs. At least it feels that way. I haven't looked up any stats. But the strikeouts with a guy on 3rd and 1 out drive me nuts so it certainly feels like they fail in those situations a lot. They really need Kirilloff to step up while Polanco gets healthy and Correa, Arraez, and Buxton stay healthy. They need to be able to plug those 5 in everyday and let them do their thing (even against lefty starters, IMO). Put those 5 at the top everyday and just mess with the back 4 in the order based on matchups. At least that's what I'd do.
  17. chpettit19
    Those stats are the combined stats of the hitters in those lineup positions for all games. Arraez has spent the majority of his time in the 2 hole so that's why I credited him there.
  18. chpettit19
    Kirilloff is not starting tonight, fyi. And MLB just announced pitching staffs have to be down to 13 by Monday so that should mean Kirilloff is staying. Let's hope at least!
  19. chpettit19
    This is what I've been saying the last couple years. Kepler and Sano get so much heat because they aren't top 5 hitters, but have been forced to hit in the top 5 spots for years. If they were in the 7-9 holes people wouldn't be so upset. I think a top 5 of Buxton, Arraez, Correa, Polanco, and Kirilloff is a great start. And I think Larnach and Miranda have the potential to fill that 6 hole. Kepler, Celestino, Sanchez, Jeffers, Urshela, Garlick, Gordon types are fine in that bottom 3rd, but they need those last couple bats to become the offense they should be.
  20. chpettit19
    OBP by order position: 1st: .336 2nd: .384 (Luis Arraez is good at what he does) 3rd: .374 4th: .335 5th: .277 6th: .263 7th: .289 8th: .328 9th: .319 The 8 and 9 hole hitters are actually doing ok at getting on base. .319 would be good for 10th in baseball in terms of team OBP (tied with Boston and San Diego). .328 is what the Dodgers have as the number 2 team in baseball. HRs by order position: 1st: 16 2nd: 10 3rd: 14 4th: 3 5th: 8 6th: 10 7th: 5 8th: 6 9th: 2 Buxton has 18 HRs, so if he was hitting in the 3 hole all year he'd only be adding 4 homeruns to the total. It'd give a little boost, but certainly nothing drastic. The 3 hole has also had 15 fewer PAs this year than the leadoff spot. 4 hole has 23 fewer. So there really isn't a great deal of improvement that would be gained by dropping him. The 4 hole having the lowest slugging percentage on the team is certainly not ideal, though.
  21. chpettit19
    Palacios will go back to St Paul to make room for Correa. Contreras will go back to St Paul and then the question is if they go 14 man staff or 13. If it's 14 they will replace him with a pen arm. If it's 13 I'd think they'd replace him with Kirilloff. If it were me making the decisions I'd bring up Kirilloff for Garlick, Miranda, or Gordon. Probably Miranda so he can get everyday ABs in St Paul. He looks like he's figuring things out at the ML level, but he's still a part time player so I'd put him in St Paul to get everyday ABs. Wouldn't mind Garlick either, but he'd be my second choice. He's not part of the future so I'm not worried about him getting ABs to develop, and he can clearly hit lefties. Gordon has no options left so he'd be my last choice since he does provide flexibility and some speed which I think is helpful for this team. But if Kirilloff is back to being Kirilloff (and looks like he may be) I get him back in Minneapolis as I think he's one of the top 6 or so bats in the org. Moving Sanchez to a more typical starting C role instead of DHing so much would get Jeffers bat out of the lineup and Kirilloff's in. There's a lot of names on the roster who feel like they're really good, but the offense has been bad more than it's been good this year so I don't think it's hard to find ABs for Kirilloff if he's back to being himself.
  22. chpettit19
    Yes, his bias is towards pulling pitchers before they see a good lineup a 3rd time through. That is the organizational philosophy and will not change with a new manager. 3rd time through the order is when the decisions start being made. It's not a set in stone, nobody ever sees a lineup 3 times situation. Each lineup is created different and each pitcher matches up differently against those lineups. The FO and manager gather data on the lineups and pitchers and come up with a general plan before the game starts. Then the manager decides exactly when to pull the plug in the game. There are 100% times when Rocco does something the FO would've done different, but overall they have a plan and Rocco follows it while deciding on precise moves in game based on the parameters set by the FO. There is nothing to debate here. If the FO didn't like how Rocco was doing things they'd fire him. Since they've done nothing but praise him for 3+ years and haven't fired him the only logical conclusion is that he manages the games the way the FO wants him to manage the games.
  23. chpettit19
    Exit velos given up by Smeltzer yesterday: 112.3 MPH (Springer HR), 100.4 Kirk GDP, 104.6 (Chapman groundout), 97 (Gurriel groundout), 106.1 (Bichette lineout), 100.4 (Vlad single), 108.9 (Kirk HR). He gave up an average exit velo of 93.3 yesterday in 4 innings. He faced 16 batters and gave up exit velos of 97 or higher to 7 of them. That's 44% of batters he'd faced that hit the ball incredibly hard. He also walked 2 guys. So 56% of guys he faced he walked or they tattooed the ball. I'd argue he wasn't "doing fine," and he was struggling, but getting lucky that they were hitting the ball at guys. Yes, they go into every game with a plan. Every team does. You guys seem to think they're just winging it and it's just up to Rocco and his "feel for the game" to make decisions. That's not accurate. Every major league organization has a plan going into every game and a big picture plan for managing their staff as a whole. Now there's some tweaks and differences in all of them, and they base them on different things, but they all have them. It's why many of us say managers aren't all that important in winning/losing games. A game here or there maybe, but nothing like some suggest. No FO is going to hire a manager who manages in a way they don't like or sees strategy drastically differently. So, again, firing Rocco wouldn't lead to drastically different pen management. At all.
  24. chpettit19
    They wouldn't hire a manager who didn't think this way is the right way to do things. This is the way the FO wants a staff run. It's weird that you point out that Rocco has let people go deeper yet your most often used complaint on these threads is that Rocco never lets starters go deeper. The FO and Rocco meet daily. Every single day they talk about the strategy for that day and the games coming up. Rocco is the extension of the FO in the dugout. They hired him because he has the same thoughts on baseball strategy as them. They wouldn't go out and hire someone who thinks things should be done differently. They have a general range that they start looking to take a starter out in. It's then up to Rocco to make a decision on the exact moment based on the criteria range they've developed as an organization. The criteria includes the data points I already presented, plus whether or not they have an off day coming up, how the pitcher has been performing against the guys coming up, their desire to start guys in clean innings as often as possible, bullpen usage on previous dates, AAA pitcher usage from previous days, previous performance of certain pitchers vs certain hitters, the available bench players for the other team, and more that you'd never even think of. These things are all used in big picture pregame discussions before the general outline is given to the starter and pen arms so everybody knows the plan for the day. The pen arms are given a range of hitters that they'll be targeted for use against. The starter is given a general idea of how long their leash is that day. Then it's on Rocco during the game to make decisions on exactly when those changes happen based on a crazy number of factors.
  25. chpettit19
    No, I said you wouldn't be happy with the next manager either because this is the way the FO wants things run. And then I explained that there's a whole bunch of stats and data that are used in game to make decisions based on a set of parameters that the FO has put in place.
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