chpettit19

Hey now. Let's be fair. It was Francona that pulled him, not Roberts. Give credit to Bauer for being willing to show up maybe the best manager in baseball for the last 20 years.

Yes, "Is Bauer Worth It?" based on what he brings to the table as a person. And then it goes on to list a whole bunch of reasons why we should have no thought that he's going to change who he is, and how he acts, since he hasn't done it in 15 years in the spotlight. You're misunderstanding the use of the word "could" in that sentence. He wasn't using "could" in the "it's possible" sense, but instead in the "past tense of can" sense. They didn't trade him because they thought it might be possible at some hypothetical future time he might be a problem. They traded him because he already was a problem. "Many Dodgers wanted him back?" How many is many? Clearly not enough that the FO cared since they DFA'd him. If the leaders of the Dodgers clubhouse were clamoring for him to be back you don't think he'd be back? The top of the Dodgers organization flew to Phoenix at the end of last week and met with Bauer to give him a shot to show he deserved a 2nd chance. He clearly didn't impress them since he's no longer a part of their organization. Actually, all the reports coming out of that meeting is that Bauer showed no remorse, didn't apologize for anything, and made no attempt to show he was willing to change in anyway. Or, as you questioned in your first post, he showed no signs that the Dodgers would have any ability to get him to "tone it down." If the Dodgers and their top end franchise couldn't "convince him that it'd be in his own best interest to tone it down" why would we think the Twins could? Edited to add: There's also reports that the Dodgers tried to trade him while eating his contract, but no teams would make that move.

I don't know that it hurt anyone's feelings. And I don't see it's connection to bat flips, or even bashing water coolers. He showed up his manager in the middle of the field. I chuckled when he did it, but it's very different to show up your manager on the pitcher's mound than it is to be upset with yourself for performing poorly and smashing a water cooler after you get pulled. There's a reason he's left behind a legacy of not being liked in every clubhouse he's ever been in. Bauer even seemed to agree since he was actually willing to apologize for that throw. Apologized to his whole team after that one.

I think the point of this article is that Bauer won't tone it down. He's never toned it down. He's never showed any sign of even considering toning it down. If him toning it down needs to happen for you, or any fan, or the FO, or ownership, to be comfortable bringing him in then he's not an option. He's been disliked by a large chunk of his clubhouse going back to his time at UCLA. That's over a decade of not toning it down. He's still on social media acting like a jackass. There's no evidence he's ever provided during his 15 years in the public view that suggests he'd ever even consider toning it down. This is who he is.

Who are you referring to? Cuz it can't be the Twins FO. Neither of their leaders went to ivy league schools. Falvey went to Trinity College (that's in the New England Small College Athletic Conference). And Levine went to Haverford College (that's a lovely DIII school in the Centennial Conference). As of 2020, almost half of the league's top baseball execs were ivy leaguers, though. Maybe the problem is the Twins didn't hire ivy leaguers who follow analytics like they're playing stratomatic in their basement. You know, guys like Theo Epstein (he went to Yale and is widely considered one of the best GMs/Baseball presidents of the last 2 decades where he implemented a ton of analytics in his departments which lead to multiple World Series titles).

That sounds about right!

I haven't bashed them for letting him get away, but have bashed them for not knowing 285 wasn't enough to get him and missing on other guys while waiting for a deal they should know wasn't good enough. Them blindly, yes, blindly, falling into a 2nd Correa deal wouldn't change my mind on that, and I'd absolutely not change my tune on the offseason to this point or apologize. If he ends up here, it's not because the Twins were so smart to know that the Giants and Mets would both pass on deals significantly better than theirs. They simply would've lucked into it and that's not worthy of praise.

I'd also very much like a deal along these lines. I'd be willing to do the 10/285 if he were willing to put in language about the ankle in there that takes the Twins off the hook if it explodes in 4 years, or whatever, but I'd much prefer something along the lines of what you're suggesting.

That's one heck of an assumption. You don't think players have money managers, or agents, smart enough to point out the difference in cost of living or taxes between NY and Minneapolis? You don't think the MLBPA is smart enough to figure out that the taxes are different in different states and provide their members with information on how that all works? I'd be willing to bet a whole lot of money that Carlos Correa is well aware of what amount of money he'd actually see from the 12/315 and 10/285 offers based on taxes, cost of living, agent fees, union fees, etc. I bet he's also well aware of how much more he can make in NY on promotional deals outside of his contract. Most players absolutely do look at those things, and pay a whole team of people to make sure they are making the decision they want to make.

Welcome to Twins Daily!

The international signing period starts in just over a week. Already reports that they have deals in place for 2 guys, and with over $6 million to spend they'll certainly sign more than 2. There's your "few low level lottery tickets," and they didn't even have to trade anyone!

I mean I'm willing to trade anyone if the price is right. Is the trade for a young, proven front end starter, or up the middle star, with at least 4 years of control? Sure. Is it for someone they'd need to extend in the next year or two and we know they won't pay market rate so wouldn't extend them? No. I also don't see them as all that redundant. Lee has the hands and arm to be a spare SS (I think he lacks the range to be an ideal everyday guy) until he gets to his late 20s, and I like the idea of having that extra insurance. Miranda can play both corners. And I don't see them going with a fulltime DH anytime in the near future so that gives them another spot to rotate through. I think they both have a really high likelihood of being .280 and 20 HRs type hitters and I want as many of those guys in the lineup as I can get. I don't see much of any redundancies on the infield for the Twins. And, honestly, don't really see it in the OF either. I think Kepler and Polanco are on their last legs, and Kepler may not even be on the roster come March. Gallo is a 1 year guy. Buxton is the only veteran locked up long-term. Don't trust Arraez's knees and he's a no power 1B/DH against righties only (I hate typing that cuz he's my favorite current Twin). Larnach, Kirilloff, Miranda, Lewis, Lee, Julien, Gordon, Buxton, Jeffers, Arraez, Vazquez, Wallner are 12 guys I see being here even in 2024. Maybe Polanco is the 13th position player for that year. Celestino is a AAAA guy to me. Hopefully Martin keeps the momentum from the AFL going and then he'd be the 13th guy. Or, more likely, at least 1 of those 12 doesn't succeed as we hope, and maybe Martin replaces them. Or we know there's always a need for a 14th guy to be ready in AAA cuz of Buxton's health. We can hope Rodriguez flies through the system, but I'm not betting on that (and he's an OFer so not blocked by Miranda or Lee in your question). There's always other guys who pop up seemingly out of nowhere (Steer and Julien types), but I'm not betting on that either. The rest of their prospects are either not even in the system yet (#5 pick this year) or years away (Miller, Urbina, etc.). I don't see any trades that really take this team to the next level. It's either morgaging the future with Lee, Lewis, Miranda types, or not bringing back top end talent for Kepler, Arraez, or Polanco types. It's why I'm so frustrated that they sat out free agency waiting on Correa. They have a solid floor built between veterans and the current prospect wave. What they needed was some high end talent added to supplement them. At this point I think they are who they are. And either the new prospect wave stays healthy and produces or they fail and it's time to blow it up and plan for the next wave in 3 years (and if that's the case I hope its a new FO doing the rebuild). All my thoughts on these position players is echoed for the pitchers. The current wave is here and they passed on all the top end pitchers. Bring in a Fulmer type, but otherwise it's time to sink or swim with the kids. They don't have enough depth to send a bunch away for an arm, and they don't have the big ticket prospects to get a truly front of the rotation arm anyways. Through a lot of their own doing, and some bad luck with health, they're in a spot without many options. Bad year for them to cut payroll, but here we are.

Agree Varland and SWR are the most likely starters, although it looks like Ted went with guys who hadn't debuted yet, and not just guys with rookie eligibility. Not sure why Martin, who's not on the 40-man, would be more likely than Julien, who is on the 40-man, to debut. Only versatility he provides beyond Julien is OF, but there's already 9 outfielders on the 40-man so I wouldn't expect him to get a shot over any of them. Lee is in AA already. He does anything like he did at the end of the year last year for the first 3 months of this season and there's no reason he couldn't, or shouldn't, debut halfway through 2023.

So your stance is to trade them now because they aren't good enough to get a qualifying offer, but you think another team would be willing to give up something of worth for them? Kind of seems a bit contradictory. You don't think either of them are as good, or better, than Eovaldi or Perez? Or Tyler Anderson? Don't think Sonny Gray's numbers compare to Chris Bassitt's? I'd argue (and pretty easily) that they're every bit as "elite" as those 4 guys who all received QOs after last season. I'd go compare those 4 pitchers to the guys you "never wasted a second thinking about" because they wouldn't be worth it.

Got ya. Misread what you were getting at. Not the first time and won't be the last for me doing that. My criteria for what is and what isn't acceptable this year is a little different than yours, but I certainly don't blame anyone for demanding a playoff win out of these guys. It's definitely time to start seeing some real success around these parts.

I think the idea that he could be signed for $8 million a year shoots down the idea that he's worth investing in over the guys they already have on staff. 42 year old Rich Hill just got $8 million. Corey Kluber got 10. If he's struggling to even get 8 it shows that the league doesn't think his 2022 performance is at all sustainable and he's likely the below replacement level player he'd been for years before that. He got 3 in 2020, 3 in 2021, and 7 in 2022. If he can't get to 8 after a career year he's not worth it.

FYI, they're both eligible for qualifying offers and the Twins would almost certainly extend one to each of them. In which case the Twins would be in line to receive picks immediately following the 1st round in the 2024 draft depending on a few things. So they would still be getting something for losing those 2. Picks in the top 35 of the draft are pretty valuable.

But they didn't just get draft choices back. They got 3.5 combined years of above average major league pitchers and draft picks. But that's neither here nor there in this discussion. Yes, cHawk suggested they either needed to commit to winning now or rebuilding for the future, and suggested signing Wacha helped with neither of those situations. You then suggested they didn't seem to be giving off rebuild vibes by still having Gray, Mahle, Kepler, and Polanco (and signing Gallo). You said "letting Gray and Mahle go for nothing at the end of the year after giving up what they gave up would be unforgivable and a fire able offense." Do you feel it's not acceptable for them to win the division in 2023 (maybe even a playoff game if we're lucky!) with Gray, Mahle, and Maeda (not to mention Kepler, Polanco, and Gallo that you also named) playing varying degrees of important roles and then getting up to 4 draft picks for the pitchers and Gallo and still being able to trade Kepler and Polanco after the season if young guys really step up? My read is that you think the only real option right now is to go into a rebuild. And we can just agree to disagree there if that's the case. I'd actually prefer the draft picks over more prospects that don't have places to play on the current team, but will need 40-man spots this or next year. That's based on me not believing they're going to get some near MLB ready arms that project as top of the rotation guys in return for any of those guys right now. And if they can't get prospects in return that are better than the prospects they already have, and are better than top 35 picks in 2024, then I'd much prefer keeping Gray and Mahle and giving 2023 a go. They don't need more young position players (unless they could get a top end catching or CF prospect). They've got guys setup for every position (outside of C and a Buxton replacement better than a Gordon/Celestino platoon). What they need are top end arms. I don't think they can get that for Mahle or Gray this offseason. My point is there's a talent line they can, and should, draw in return for Mahle and Gray. The Twins are holding 2 above average major league pitchers and 2 top 35 picks in their hands. So #1 they need to get a return that is worthy of 1 season of an above average major league pitcher if they're going to trade either of them. They could probably get that. Then, #2, they need to get a return that is worthy of a top 35 pick on top of that. And I don't think they can get that. And, to me, the fire-able offense would be trading Mahle and/or Gray for less than a return worthy of 1 year of their service plus a top 35 pick. Especially because, unless I'm remembering incorrectly, the team receiving them in trade would be able to put their own QO on them after the year and get the top 35 pick if they trade for them before the season. Although, I could be wrong on that and maybe that was based on the new league year start date. And where their comp pick lands depends on what team they'd trade them to. They've got their prospect wave all in the majors, or on the doorstep. They sink or swim based on Kirilloff, Miranda, Arraez, Lewis, Lee, Larnach, and all the arms. If those guys all fail they're doomed anyways. A couple more prospects for Mahle and Gray doesn't fix that. Their wave is ready, and they need them to be successful. Then they need another wave in "4 to 7 years" like you said (I read it as sarcastic). A few more prospects of the same level as the ones they have in this wave won't make up for their internal wave failing. So I'd much rather have Gray, Mahle, Polanco, Maeda, etc. on the roster for 2023 and give it a shot. Then take the draft picks, and trade Polanco, if the prospects fail. Because the next wave won't be arriving in 2024 anyways so why would they want to add to a failed wave? PS. That post got real long, so I apologize. A little excessive there.

And? Hajjar and Petty are the only 2 guys that they gave up for either of those guys that could fill a probable opening on the Twins roster in the next few years. Steer would be starting the year in AAA for the Twins next year where the Twins will instead have Julien. And somebody on the current 40-man wouldn't be there because Steer would need a spot (there's certainly a couple pitchers I'd remove for him in a vacuum). Encarnacion-Strand would probably split his year between AA and AAA next year as a no defense corner IF/DH who'd be blocked at the big league level by Miranda, Arraez, likely Lee jumps him quickly, Julien possibly, Martin possibly, and Kirilloff. I don't see Steer or CES as massive loses in your "after giving up what they gave up" statement. Unless you think they're going to be significantly better than the other 6 guys I just listed. They gave up Petty (the 26th overall pick) for 2 years of Gray and what could be pick 31 in 2024 (depending on how much he signs for with another team). "Losing him for nothing" looks an awful lot like getting 2 years of a pretty darn good major league pitcher and the chance to get a similar prospect to the one they gave up. All for a kid who'd thrown 5 innings in rookie ball at the time of the trade. Hajjar was a 2nd round pick (#61 overall) who's in A+ ball at this point. So, again, "losing him for nothing" looks to me like giving up 2 hitting prospects blocked by better hitting, and fielding, prospects and/or current major leaguers, and a low level starter with upside for 1.5 years of a pretty darn good major league pitcher (granted the .5 year didn't go as hoped) and a pick that would likely be an entire round higher than where they got Hajjar.

To be fair they'd likely put a QO on both Gray and Mahle (and Gallo if he's good) at the end of the year, so they wouldn't lose them for nothing.

I agree 100% with the last paragraph. But I don't see a need for "potential veteran pitching depth" if it isn't better than the veteran pitching depth they already have. They have 3 veterans and Ryan in the rotation. If they're not bringing in someone better than Ober (and I don't see Wacha, who has his own durability issues, as being better than Ober) then I don't get the point. Is he willing to take a minor league deal with a ST invite coming off a career best season? Cuz that's the only price that seems right to me. He's not bumping anyone else out of the rotation so it's going to be hard to sell him on coming to the Twins to be a bullpen piece coming off a career year. I simply don't see the fit here. If they're looking for a 1 inning BP piece, and I think they should be, I'd much rather see Fulmer return than hope Wacha can transition to a 1 inning pen arm. Unless they can convince Wacha to be a long man in the pen, again wouldn't expect that coming off a career year, or they're going to move Ober to a long man role. And I think that'd be mismanaging Ober at this point. I just don't see a fit for this type of player. They've got a bunch of league average dudes. They need to start getting some real impact players. Only way for that this offseason is trades.

While I agree there's plenty of that sort of sentiment around these parts, I disagree that's what's happening here. Plenty of us are pointing out that Wacha doesn't have all that high of a chance of being a potentially useful player. Yes, he was good last year, but that was an extreme outlier in performance. Yes, he had 3.3 bWAR last year. He had 1.5 fWAR. Here's his bWAR/fWAR from 2016 to 2022: -.2/1.8 1.5/3.1 1.1/.8 .2/-.3 -.2/0 -.6/1.1 3.3/1.5 Here's his IP totals from 2016 to 2022: 138 165.2 84.1 126.2 34 124.2 127.1 He's no more "potentially useful" than 10 dudes they already have on the roster. Do they think they can get a near Petty level return for Gray if they decide to trade him and are looking at Wacha as a possible veteran replacement in the rotation in that case? I'd guess no, but would understand that. If not, you're replacing Ober with Wacha. That doesn't excite me at all and seems like a signing simply to say they made a signing. I'm not interested in that.

But plenty can match the -.6 in 2021, or -.2 in 2020, or .2 in 2019, or 1.1 in 2018, or 1.5 in 2017, or -.2 in 2016.

If Nick Paparesta keeps Buxton in CF for 130 games each of the next 2 seasons the Pohlads should give him an ownership stake in the team.

2020-2022 stats in the same order of Wacha, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda... Obviously Ryan and Maeda only had 2 seasons in the last 3, but that presents a very different outlook than simply showing his 1 rebound season of 2022. If you don't like counting 2020 as a season we can go back to 2019, but that makes his ERA go up to 4.56.