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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Oh, I'm certainly not suggesting trading either of them. Just saying based on the current 40-man roster Larnach is the clear favorite for the opening day roster because Miranda still isn't healthy and this FO doesn't tend to hand opening day roster spots to guys who haven't debuted yet. Martin isn't a likely ROY candidate so even if he "wins" the job in spring I'd bet he spends 2 weeks in St Paul "working on his defense" to get them another year of control. I expect them to bring in a veteran I'm not excited about sometime before opening day and that guy pushes Larnach to AAA with Miranda and Martin and the rest of those guys. But if Miranda's shoulder still isn't right and he beats out Larnach it's probably a sign that Larnach just isn't going to have a career here since those 2 are the best bets for making the opening day roster as things stand at this very moment.
  2. chpettit19
    Who's the better option? His .741 career OPS against righties isn't impressive at all, but I don't see them giving Castro an everyday job and Santana hasn't cracked a .730 OPS against righties in years. His big bounce back year last year was a .727 OPS against them after having been in the .650 range the 2 previous seasons. This team doesn't have a DH right now. It's why I'm so confused that people are convinced there's no opening on the offense. Trevor Larnach is probably the opening day DH against righties right now.
  3. chpettit19
    Definitely interested to see what Miranda looks like this spring, but from the statements he's made recently it sounds like his shoulder still isn't right. If he beats out Larnach with a bum shoulder it's probably time to cut Larnach loose (they wouldn't actually, but that's finally the last realistic nail in his Twins coffin).
  4. chpettit19
    If Niko Goodrum wins this job out of spring I'm going to be very nervous about the season. Either there's injuries all over the roster or he beat out multiple guys on the 40-man and all the rest of the mid- to late-20s "prospects" we've been talking about all winter. That'd be more shocking than Willi Castro earning a job last spring.
  5. chpettit19
    Santana is terrible against righties so I sure hope they aren't planning on playing him everyday. I don't think Lee has any shot at the opening day roster unless there's a 60-day IL stint somewhere and an injury to an infielder (could be same IL player). He's not on the 40-man and I don't see this FO dropping depth to force Lee onto the opening day roster. I expect a MAT signing eventually, but as of right now I think it makes sense to have Larnach as the favorite.
  6. chpettit19
    Wouldn't he be the opening day DH against righties right now?
  7. chpettit19
    I think you've summed up the entire reason he isn't signed yet. Teams don't trust him yet over a long-term contract. But a short-term deal should make him very appealing coming off his most recent season and knowing he's only 28. In the seasons he's good he's very good against lefties. I don't think there's much of any concern at all about his platoon splits, it's simply about is he good Bellinger or bad Bellinger. Because he's generally either good or bad against both lefties and righties.
  8. chpettit19
    Bellinger has a better career OPS against lefties than MAT does. Was better against them last year, too. Simply being a lefty doesn't automatically make him not make sense.
  9. chpettit19
    They could offer the same amount to both and have the younger Bellinger be the one willing to take the short-term deal. But this offense has an opening still, and massive question marks at his 2 primary positions, so one could pretty easily make an argument that he'd be just as helpful as either of the major starters still available on the FA market.
  10. chpettit19
    I think most of the time that "young" is thrown around on these boards people really mean "inexperienced at the major league level." The Twins are not a particularly young team by age, but are by experience. I think the question is who believes debuting at 25 means you still have substantial growth in you from a skill perspective at 28, and who believes that growth is more tied to the actual age. My definition of young for the 2024 season is someone born in the 21st century. Age 24 season or younger is what I call "young." Simeon Woods-Richardson is the only "young" pitcher on the Twins 40-man roster in terms of age. The rest of the guys called "young" are mostly just "late-bloomers" or "inexperienced." Emmanuel Rodriguez is the only "young" hitter on the the Twins 40-man roster in terms of age. The rest are just "inexperienced." You could make an argument for Camargo being "young" because he's a catcher and they tend to develop a little slower, but strictly by age Emma is the only "young" hitter on the 40-man.
  11. chpettit19
    Bellinger has an OPS of .782 against lefties for his career. Was .984 last year. Simply being lefthanded doesn't automatically mean he's a bad fit. MAT's career OPS against lefties is .746. Was .914 last year. I agree it's not going to happen, but he's a better option against lefties than Taylor even though he hits left handed.
  12. chpettit19
    Older? Bellinger is 28. Not exactly old. And he's never been mediocre. He's been well above average to great or horrid. But never mediocre. The reason he isn't signed yet is because nobody trusts him to not be horrid at some point over a long-term deal. A 1 year Bellinger deal would be significantly better than any realistic outcome for any of the young guys who aren't already on the 26 man roster. The chances of Martin, for example, ever putting up a 20/20 season with a 134 wRC+ while playing great defense at multiple positions is pretty much 0. That's what the "mediocre" Bellinger did last year. He's not Santana or Farmer or any of these other guys they waste 5 to 10 mil on. If they can get Bellinger as Buxton and Kirilloff insurance they absolutely should. But that feels pretty unrealistic right now.
  13. chpettit19
    I didn't call him a bum, but he's not as good as Polanco. There's no argument that he is.
  14. chpettit19
    I don't agree that you can't judge a trade immediately. You can't judge the final outcome, but you can judge the process for this season right now. For this season they traded one of their 5 best hitters for a reliever, a back of the rotation starter, and a short-side of a platoon 1B. It's fine if people like that, but I don't. Polanco is clearly the best player in that group. I don't want quantity, I want quality. Carlos Santana's bat is not at all equal to Polanco's. Polanco is a life-long shortstop, he can play 1B. Santana is a short side of a platoon 1B/DH. That is not more useful than Polanco. And he's 38 in April. His big bounce back OPS against righties last year was .727. It was in the .650 range for multiple seasons before that. Polanco's was .775 last year and over .800 for his career. There's no argument to be made that Santana is an equal hitter to Polanco.
  15. chpettit19
    That's a pretty sobering look at the lineup. I think they're probably too low on Julien, and Correa and Buxton are just extreme wildcards to me. But the rest seem to be reasonable, if maybe slightly negative outlooks. But that's not surprising given the lack of track record for basically the entire roster. Hard to predict guys with limited track records (Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Kirilloff) or wild performance swings (Kepler and Jeffers).
  16. chpettit19
    I am not looking forward to another season of "Rocco is the worst, leave your starters in!" talk on 75% of game threads or recaps. I'd think the plan/hope is for Pablo to get 180+ innings, and Ryan and Ober to get 150+. The quick hook plan seems like a good strategy for Paddack and the #5 slot in the rotation. I'm sure there will be games where Ryan and Ober get a quick hook as well, and it's probably smart considering how far past his career max inning total Ober went last year and the fact that Ryan has seen a significant performance dip in the 2nd half each of the last 2 years (yes, I know he had the groin thing last year, but he didn't have it in 2022). So I'd guess Pablo is free to go as far as he can basically every time out (based on 2024 standards, so not suggesting a bunch of complete games), Ryan and Ober will be a combo of some quick hooks to save their arms and some extra leash when they've really got it, and Paddack and the #5 spot will be more quick hook than deep starts due to his lack of innings the last few years and to save the #5 starter from seeing a lineup a 3rd time.
  17. chpettit19
    I would've signed Maldonado. But I'm also more willing than the Twins to let my primary catcher catch 120 games while having the other guy be a cheap, defensive vet who's good with a pitching staff.
  18. chpettit19
    Kyle Farmer and Christian Vazquez would no longer be on my team. Not to mention Carlos Santana if we're just talking about the current roster.
  19. chpettit19
    I'd be open to trading either of them. Walker Jenkins is the only young guy I wouldn't be open to trading. That's part of the challenging thing about a hypothetical like this. If I were actually in charge of the team there are several moves I would've made that were different so we have to speak in pretty broad terms, because my roster would look different than this one (wouldn't have made that Polanco trade, for example). I know I'm in the minority when it comes to my willingness to make trades for 1 year rentals. And I don't think it's outrageous at all that most people don't agree. I certainly understand the stance against it. That's what makes TD so fun. We get so many different points of view and it's actually pretty similar to an actual FO. I can promise you there are people in the Twins FO that would've traded for Burnes, but the guys making the final decisions wouldn't (apparently).
  20. chpettit19
    Yes, I would. But I wouldn't have traded Polanco so there's a lot more factors in all of it. But in a vacuum, yes I'd trade 5 years of Julien for 1 year of Burnes.
  21. chpettit19
    I'm saying it was/is possible to get pitching for Julien. Each person just has to determine what they feel is an appropriate return. That's what the Twins have to do. The Orioles felt they had an "infield logjam" so they traded 6 years of one of their infielders and more for 1 year of Burnes. Yikes, I guess.
  22. chpettit19
    Jesus Lazardo was almost traded for Vinnie Pasquantino. Arraez and Julien have both played 1B. Seems like that'd be a possibility. We don't know Seattle wouldn't have traded their pitching for Julien + prospect. We know they wouldn't trade them for Polanco. Everyone is available if you offer enough. Of course Dipoto is going to say he's not trading his young pitching. What else would he say? The question is what you define as good value, and how important is the controllability factor to you. Corbin Burnes could've been had for Julien + prospect since Julien is likely more valuable than either Ortiz or Hall, and the Twins could've thrown in their own Comp pick if they wanted. I bet Chicago would love to have Julien + prospect in exchange for Cease. There are trades to be made if you're willing to pay the prices. The Twins weren't/aren't. There's a difference between something not being possible and the Twins not being willing to do it.
  23. chpettit19
    No, but it's still worth in the 450 mil range and his deferments may allow him to save a bunch in tax payments. The point is the agents know what they're doing, and guys are still getting massive deals.
  24. chpettit19
    There's video of DeSclafani throwing today. You don't need to believe reports. Love to see the quote and I will change my stance on him being injured immediately.
  25. chpettit19
    I don't think this is totally true. You're assuming only positive progression because the team has youth. There are more young players that go backwards than go forwards. There's a very real possibility that guys go the other way. The Guardians were just as young and won even more games with just as good of pitching and plenty of young offensive talent in 2022. Now plenty of fans aren't worried about them at all. We all love Julien's potential, but go look at Andres Gimenez's 2022 season. Also a 2nd baseman. He actually won a gold glove and is one of the best defenders in baseball. He made the All Star team and had an OPS+ of 141 over 146 games at the age of 23. All of that is better than Julien at the age of 24. Gimenez had a 98 OPS+ in 2023. Progression is not linear, and improvement is not guaranteed. Steven Kwan another example. Oscar Gonzalez went from a 125 OPS+ in 2022 to being DFA'd multiple times this offseason. There's a middle ground between the doom and gloom and expecting widespread progression. Youth is a destabilizing factor in any MLB team.
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