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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. Trov
    Every team does this. We have had plenty ourselves we passed on that other teams unlocked. Some even bounce around to several other teams first as well. Look at Brent Rooker he is on his 4th team and finally had a breakout full year with a 5.6 bWAR last year at age 29. Not like he will be some long term super star most likely but it took him a ton of time and several teams to have a great year. We have had some come in ourselves that were cast offs from other teams that developed. No one is saying this guy will pan out but he is a low risk guy. If we would have traded for him 2 years ago everyone on here would have been talking about how great he will be. Maybe he adjusts and figures it out this year at the higher levels. Maybe he will just become a defense guy, or be a career minor league guy.
  2. Trov
    Overall it was a win win deal for both sides. Garver gave a short term boost to Texas, and we used what we got to dump Donaldson and sign CC, which led to us signing him long term. This is a hard trade to look at head to head as we really got no direct value from the trade heads up, but it led to value. Without making the deal, unless we could have made one elsewhere, we most likely do not get to dump Donaldson.
  3. Trov
    Thanks for the post, it is a bit over my head on the financing side, but the Dodgers have a lot more than Othani's deferred salary. I do have a feeling that if continue to do this eventually they will lack the funds. This is because not every player will be cool with kicking their money down the road and want more upfront. The fact that the money already needs to be set aside does help the Dodgers, but teams have learned not having the cash on had will start to be a problem, ala the Padres. Big market teams like the Dodgers will be able to do this, but the mid and smaller markets will not.
  4. Trov
    This is a huge sign of how much money from broadcasting MLB will be losing over the years. The players are demanding more money but the league is starting to pull in less money. This will lead to another work stoppage sooner than later.
  5. Trov
    If he can hit they will find a spot for him. 2nd and 1st are clearly the areas that he could get his best shot, but his bat will be what gets him to majors and stays there. I have a feeling both Julien and Miranda will have shorter leashes. Julien head got in his way last year, and that is harder to fix. Miranda injuries have got in his way last couple of years. When fully healthy he has shown he can carry a team for stretches, but he has not been able to stay fully healthy. Ty France unless he has a hell of a bounce back will be an easy cut for his price tag. I just hope he does not get the Margot treatment and sticks around all year despite being a huge negative on the team.
  6. Trov
    If FO believe in his stuff they will have him make team as a long man out of pen. Even contending teams will have a guy at end of pen to do mop up rolls or inning eater at times. If he starts to develop he could get moved up a roll. Do not be surprised though if he has an "injury" sometime mid year when it is time bring someone else up.
  7. Trov
    I never watched France play much defense. To me 1st base defense is broken into 2 major areas. One is how well can they make their own plays, getting stops and turning them into outs. The second is how well can they save the other infielders from getting errors and turning them into outs. This is things like making digs on throws. I would say Santana was great at the first part and mostly average to maybe just above average at the second part. If France can be above average at the second part we can live with average on the first part, unless he hits as bad as he did last year too. I hope the heel fracture was a big reason for his drop off on both sides, but I do not think so. Personally, I hope we can find someone that can be either a great hitter or a good defender at first, but right now it is not looking good at first.
  8. Trov
    I do not know if it was the way the Pohalds wanted it or just the way the FO did it, but they almost never signed a guy pre-arb, unless it was to just buy out the arb years generally. Very few teams are willing to sign long term deals pre-arb and they normally really only buy out 1 year of FA, unless they are very young guys. There is normally little point to sign a guy past his arb years unless he is a mega star, or will be FA around 27 to 28. This is because most guys start to really regress around age 30 to 31 season. If a player will not be FA until 30 why agree to pay for years they are regressing on pay of the non regression rate? The mid to low payroll teams work the CBA to their advantage that way. They use up the young years and either let walk in FA or trade with a year to two of control left restocking system with young guys. The big payroll teams can afford to have guys being overpaid and move on.
  9. Trov
    I fully agree. The only reason to lock any of them up would be to get cost control set in. If either have crazy good seasons they could start to get high arb numbers, but outside of Lewis that is unlikely. Neither Ryan or Ober should want to give away a year or two of FA without huge payoff. Age 32 pitchers rarely get huge deals, and the ones that do are either on HOF path, or the deal is a huge problem. Jeffers will be at the point catcher offense fall off the cliff too. Lewis is the only one that could merit a large pay day at 30, but so far he is on the Buck path, not healthy enough to command huge deal and has not been consistent enough to know you can count on him year in and year out. His slump the end of the year really hurt his demand for a long term contract at this point.
  10. Trov
    I believe the Twins see Eeles and McCusker much like the rest of the league. Guys that have flaws and will need to vastly overcome their flaws and show there is no reason not to give them a shot. When you are undrafted out of independent ball you need to over perform at all levels to get a true shot. I feel Eeles did exactly that, but he is going to have to repeat this year to even get a sniff. He was never going to break camp with team as he is not, and does not need to be on 40 man roster any time soon. The only way he makes 40 man roster is when he makes his MLB debut. That could happen this year if he tears up AAA again, and our 40 man roster guys either get hurt or just perform so bad you need to make a change.
  11. Trov
    What is the point of being a "non-roster" invitee versus someone like Jenkins who will not be invited to camp but get games and time at MLB level camp? I get for vets they normally have opt-out clause if they do not make MLB team, but for others I am not understanding the real importance, being the team draws from minor league camp all the time. Is there a technical limit of players they can have at the MLB side of things?
  12. Trov
    McCusker has had 2 years now in organization after going undrafted and soon to be 27. He is up to AAA. If there are injuries and he gets passed by this year I would say he is not getting a chance, but he is not exactly someone that is saying call me up. He may have some pop, but he also struck out nearly 33% of the time. My guess that rate does not get better against MLB pitching. Severino has had many years in organization and greatly regressed last year. Keirsey is also now nearly 28, and put up some good numbers in AAA last year, but clearly FO does not feel he is MLB level with getting only 6 games despite having need in CF. In terms of Rosario, any team could have had him this year, they chose not to give him a shot this year. Down the road maybe a team will be willing to if he grows more, but right now the Twins are not alone in the lack of giving a shot.
  13. Trov
    First, Hunter nor Jones should be in hall in my opinion. Jones was well on his way until he fell off the cliff and could not hit at all after age 30. Hunter on the other hand actually started to be a better hitter later in his career. He was very good and should be a Twins Hall of Famer, but not baseball HOF. Nathan is in a odd situation because relief pitchers, and in his case closers have always been viewed as not HOF, save for a few. That has changed a bit in recent years, but I have always wondered how much value does a guy who pitches only 50 to 60 innings a year worth? However, should they be punished for being great at what they do and be asked to just do that? Santana should be in hall. He is compared to many current HOF the article mentions Sabathia, but I always point out Koufax as near identical comparison. Both had 12 seasons, derailed by injuries. Santana actually had higher career bWAR. The main difference is Koufax retired at his peak due to injuries, and Santana played out a few years after his peak that were affected due to injuries so the last voters saw of him was a shell of his peak. I expect Santana will get in from era vote as he was one of the best, of not the best, over a 5 year span and should have won 3 straight cy youngs but the 21 wins of Colon got it for him, not actually his other numbers.
  14. Trov
    My concern is he is getting to the age that his defense will start to drop off. He very well may have 1 more decent season in as a back up option, but his last couple of years he has not been elite on defense just about average. It feels like Margot all over and fans will be calling for Kiersey Jr. to get called up or depending on how he is hitting maybe even Jenkins when Buck gets hurt.
  15. Trov
    If they truly plan to play him full time at 1st that is a terrible plan for him. His big value is in his ability to move around the field when Rocco makes moves.
  16. Trov
    Planning him to be a "starter" at any position takes away his value. Where his value comes from is his ability to play many positions at decent defense. This allows the team to make moves throughout the game knowing they always have a guy like him to move around. If you anker him to any position you lose that value. Should he have some reps at first, only so that adds to positions he can play when needed.
  17. Trov
    Although I agree with that they can play someone other than Arenado, but my guess they wanted to trade him because of the money he makes, not because his production. His production to money is out of line. He still put up 2.5 bWAR, but when you are making over 20 mil and your team wants to cut payroll that is type of contract that will go. His bWAR was still 3rd on the team. It is unlikely they would have a guy that can still put up numbers sit on the bench while making 21 mil this year and 16 and 15 the next couple of years, not to mention the near 50 mil they owe him until he turns 50 years old. Although he may just be a money problem, that is a problem for mid payroll teams like Cards. Hard to just eat the money and play someone else, unless he becomes a negative player.
  18. Trov
    Although a fun thing to do, it really is just something for a baseball writer to do in the dead season. Good thing pitchers and catchers report in 2.5 weeks. Hopefully we will get some good stories on trades, not just by Twins, in coming weeks.
  19. Trov
    I fully agree with your points. It raises a red flag to me that a team pushing all in for last few years will trade away their best pitcher knowing they will need to cut even more payroll next year, and the year after. This might be their last season before a full on rebuild. However, there is a counter too it. Because they know the only way they can compete in the near future is young cheap talent now is the time to try and load up on that with the few assets they can trade. They know their ability to bring in large payroll is 0 for the next 5 plus years and may need to even cut. They are finally reaping what they sewed from all the big spending(like some Twins fans wanted Twins to do). I think the GM knows that because they have Machado, and many others on super expensive long term deals they will need to fill out rest of roster with guys in first 3 years of playing, and only way you win is if they are studs, and best way is to get as much as you can and hope a few stick.
  20. Trov
    If you give Martin regular reps in CF he has the athletic ability to be out there but he needs the reps to get the right reads and jumps. The hardest thing for CF is getting the right reads and jumps. If you cannot do that you will miss so many balls no matter how fast you are. The only way to do that is to get the reps. I would put him out for every BP, and every other chance you can get him real reps.
  21. Trov
    I have long said the biggest issue with the team is situational hitting. They were way too shifted to the 3 true outcome approach and undervalued singles, and hitting the ball the other way. Even just changing approach based on game situation, how you are being pitched ect. Too many analytic people look at the overall numbers and say they even out, but when you are looking at single games they do not. For example, in a three game series you win one game by 5 runs and lose the other two games by 1 run. You now have a run differential of plus 3 runs, but you lose the series. Piling on in games you win does not help you win the close games. I would watch so many hitters get great pitches to line the other way that they either took for strikes or tried to pull. Then I watch some of the best teams just over and over get base hits against us the opposite way. Power is needed in a line up, but 9 guys that are power guys will not do it. You need balance and guys that can take walks, get singles and run the bases well. You need guys that can hit HR, but understand when you just need a run in you know how to make sure you get ball in play and not strike out.
  22. Trov
    I get he is saying that to try to get Bregman to return, but unlikely to happen. Would be great to see him running around in LF.
  23. Trov
    Bat first, no defense sounds like a typical Falvey pick. If his bat can really be great we can deal with the terrible defense he is expected to produce. I am not going to get overly excited as Julien was in similar spot and even had great rookie year, now we are wondering if he should be DFA after a terrible second year.
  24. Trov
    I am personally not concerned about lack of moves, unlike some. The roster has the ability to be a good team, but it needs health and consistency. The biggest hole will be back up to Buck when he gets hurt. Last year the team had a complete collapse of offense late in the year, mainly brought on by injury and Lewis getting in worst slump of his career. Miranda, who helped carry team in June and early July had injury pop up in his back, and then was unplayable the rest of the year. Jeffers did what he does and is possible all-star, or unplayable as well. September he was unplayable. Castro went from all-star to unplayable as well. You add in a few bullpen blow ups at very bad timing and the team just fell off a cliff. Will they be favored to win the WS of course not, but they never will be, not unless a true salary cap gets put in. Point is, team has the possibility to do something if the players can be a little more consistent. Everyone seemed to crash all at same time in September.
  25. Trov
    I find it interesting that Padres are shopping Cease. They would clearly have no intention of resigning him in offseason. After giving up some prospects for 1 year, and they are still in a win now mentality, but more shifting to a Rays/Cleveland type of reloading from players set to walk in FA. If you could get him for Vasequez and one of our pre-arb arms it might be worth it on the 1 year rental. It would jump us to possibly top rotation in the division having the second best starter in the division. The biggest question is do you believe in his health this year? He is 29, pitched full seasons 4 years in a row, 5 if you count 2020 as a full season, being he did not miss any games. He may be in a possible injury year which is a big risk if you are dealing any of your current starters to get him.
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