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IndianaTwin

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Everything posted by IndianaTwin

  1. IndianaTwin
    Yikes. There have been so many Manny Margot sightings on TD that my mind subliminally went there on my initial very quick read. Needless to say, that changed my interpretation of your comments... 🤣
  2. IndianaTwin
    Prior to the OP's quotes from the Gelb article, the Gelb article also says, "The prevailing sentiment is that the Phillies and Realmuto will find common ground again. He needs them. They need him. There is no single sticking point, according to major-league sources familiar with the talks. Realmuto wants more than the Phillies have offered; the club is believed to have discussed various multi-year scenarios with the catcher. As one of the more decorated catchers in the sport, Realmuto commands a level of respect, but the Phillies are again uncertain about what Realmuto’s market looks like." "League sources" also had Ryan, Lopez and Buxton on the trading block. Trading Jeffers doesn't fit with keeping those three and trying to contend.
  3. IndianaTwin
    Good questions as well. Which speaks to the dilemma. Those of us with hope are optimistic about (to combine your two posts) a yes from many of Wallner, Lewis, Jeffers, Buxton, Keaschall, etc., while those of us without hope are assuming a no. The likely scenario is probably somewhere in between, but the cupboard isn't bare. Though I've wanted a good 1B signing, I've been saying all winter that success is more dependent on these guys than it is on the signing. To say it another way, if you assume Bell is going to play a lot, success is dependent on him being pushed into the No. 6 or 7 spot in the order rather than on him batting cleanup.
  4. IndianaTwin
    Probably because post-ASB he played in 64 of 66 games at 27 HR/29 SB pace, lifting his BA and slugging percentage significantly in the process. I'm not sure that I consider him "most likely to succeed," since I put as much or more stock in Wallner's OPS+ of 143 over 2023-24 as I do in his only 110 a year ago, but I'm willing to believe that both could easily be middle of the order bats. I agree with others that Keaschel's ability to maintain much of his offensive prowess over a full season is probably more of a difference maker than Lee's improvement to merely average, but having even a 95 or so OPS in Lee batting 8th or 9th would speak to having a pretty long lineup.
  5. IndianaTwin
    I'd love to see Martin turn into a great player. What continues to baffle me is people seeing Martin as a given in the lineup based on his 181 PAs in 2025 with an OPS+ of 106, while ignoring his previous 257 PAs with an OPS+ of 89. Yet they simultaneously consider Wallner a question mark because he only had an OPS+ of 110 over 392 PAs in 2025, ignoring his previous 580 PAs with an OPS+ of 139.
  6. IndianaTwin
    I don't care if Harmon Killebrew, Tony Oliva AND Rod Carew had gone to Alabama, I'm still going to root against them in football.
  7. IndianaTwin
    Actually, the piece I am intrigued by is... Cuddyer, drafted ninth, ranked in top 50 as a minor leaguer, bounced around a few positions after coming up before settling into being a regular at age 25; probably would have gotten ripped on for not developing quickly enough if Twins Daily had been around back then.. Lee, drafted eighth, ranked in top 50 as a minor league, bounced around a few positions after coming up before getting his first chance to start the season as a regular at age 25; has gotten ripped on for not developing quickly enough. They aren't perfect parallels, but there are similarities, enough to serve as a reminder that maturing into being even a solid major leaguer often doesn't happen overnight.
  8. IndianaTwin
    I don't get the angst about needing another RH bat: C: Jeffers (R) 1B: Bell (S) 2B: Keaschall (R) SS: Lee (S) 3B: Lewis (R) LF: Martin (R) CF: Buxton (R) RF: Wallner (L) DH: Larnach (L) And if it's Jackson's (R) day to catch, you can DH Jeffers. So we're worried that in the 25 percent of games that they face a LH starter, we have one or two LH batters in the game? That assumes a bench of Jackson, Clemens, Fitzgerald, Roden, Outman in their current configuration. If you're looking to increase platoon advantage, the bigger issue is that several of the guys who are going to play every day (Buxton, Keaschall, Lewis, Catcher) are RH, so on the 75 percent of games when they face a RH starter, at most they will have five LH batters in the lineup. If they to force a platoon advantage, they would actually replace one or two of those with a LH batter. To maximize LH batters, you'd have to do something like: C: Jeffers 1B: Bell 2B: Clemens SS: Lee 3B: Fitzgerald LF: Roden CF: Buxton RF: Wallner DH: Larnach Which means benching Keaschall and Lewis. Said another way, the consistency in the lineup is already among the right-handed hitters. It's the left-handed side that needs improving.
  9. IndianaTwin
    Given Robertson’s age and past effectiveness, I’d be into an incentive-driven contract, in the vein of $2M guaranteed and then an extra $1M at 30, 40, 50, 60 innings.
  10. IndianaTwin
    I don’t remember the exact arbitration projections on Duran and Jax, but it seems they were around $7M and $4M. Add Varland at pre-arb and they would have been looking at something like $12M, five or take. Given their history, I don’t think many of us would expect them to spend more than $7M on a single reliever, but I could see them approaching the $12M total with three or four Coulombe-level signings.
  11. IndianaTwin
    Doc, I agree with you in thinking that the potential is there to be above .500. I'm an optimist. But can you or someone help me understand the Martin love that seems to be on TD. I don't have MLB.tv. I listened to a lot of games on the radio, but frankly, following a Game Thread was a downer. I don't feel like I have a good handle on him. Martin's OPS+ was 106, which is above average, but how does a person get 181 plate appearances and only have 7 RBIs? If he were to get 543 plate appearances at that rate, it would be 21 RBIs. I know that RBIs are situation dependent and we're talking SSS, but his OPS was .917 with the bases empty in 112 plate appearances and .441 in the 69 plate appearances with runners on base. Ouch. The previous year he was slightly better with runners on base than with bases empty, but not with RISP. In the two seasons combined, he was at .737 with the bases empty, .639 with runners on and .533 with RISP. I know he was a huge disappointment in 2024 and clearly seemed to be better in 2025, but it was only 50 games. What makes it feel like he's turned the corner? I want to believe, but I need some help.
  12. IndianaTwin
    No. It's not that I'm against the idea of extensions, though I'm not convinced any of those listed are even to the point Kepler was in his career at the time of the extension. The biggest reason not to is that doing so probably adds $5M or so to this year's payroll. Use the $5M to sign an additional reliever instead.
  13. IndianaTwin
    From an MLB.com article in October. It doesn't look like Hendry got any game action there, but... For now, Mendez is playing only the outfield, but he continues to get work at first base. The club would like to see how he works out at that position. He’s tall (6-foot-3) and rangy but has some defensive limitations in the outfield, meaning he could be an intriguing fit for first base at some point.
  14. IndianaTwin
    What Josh Bell's Signing Means for the Rest of the Twins Lineup? I think it means (further) trouble for Julien. Injuries leading to IL transactions tend to open things up, but if one assumes a roster of 2 catchers, 6 infielders and 5 outfielders, it's harder and harder to see Julien among the top six infielders, given his positional limitation. In the current mix, I'd see Bell, Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Clemens and then Fitzgerald because of his ability to play on the left side. That Julien doesn't have options is a strike in favor of making the team so they don't lose him, but it's also strike against him when it comes to keeping him around vs. a Fitzgerald or Gasper, who both do. There's talk of Keaschall to the OF, but it seems the most likely way for that to happen is Culpepper thriving and forcing Lee to 2B. I suppose it's possible Julien runs with the position at 2B, but I'm not optimistic.
  15. IndianaTwin
    Open roster spot with the DFAing of McCusker and then acquisition and trade of Susac.
  16. IndianaTwin
    Per the same MLBTR article, which is good about adding additional detail as it comes available: 9:39am: Bell’s 2026 salary will be $5.5MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. He also receives a $250K signing bonus, and there’s a $1.25MM buyout on the mutual option. So yes, guaranteed, but not all paid this year.
  17. IndianaTwin
    Per MLBTradeRumors and incorporating the part about $1.25M being in the form of an option: Bell adds $5.75MM to the 2026 payroll, boosting the Twins just north of $100MM in the process, per RosterResource. Dan Hayes of The Athletic has previously reported that the front office has about $20MM to spend this winter. So less than a third of the "very limited offseason budget," which also doesn't take into account the offloading of Larnach or anyone else. I'd also add that this info is being provided by the same person who was previously reporting that Lopez, Ryan and Buxton were likely to be traded so I take his precision with a reasonable amount of salt.
  18. IndianaTwin
    This was a new condition for me as well. I think the Reynaud's reference was not to Bell, but to someone suggesting reliever Pete Fairbanks. And my Googling tells me that Brandon Woodruff also deals with it, with may be part of why he (unexpectedly to a fair number of people) accepted the Qualifying Offer to stay with the domed Brewers.
  19. IndianaTwin
    I find it interesting that Falvey gets blasted because "he's not going to make any moves until January or February" and then when he does, he gets blasted for it not being a good enough move. It seems like people just want to rip on Falvey. I see it as a pretty significant floor move. It hopefully gets away from Clemens as the primary 1B. Maybe he's streaky WITHIN a season, but his OPS+ has been 108, 109, 111, 142, 82, 124, 127, 101, 100, 110. The high outlier was juiced-ball 2019. The low outlier was Covid-shortened 2020. I would have liked O'Hearn, but I'm not overly concerned that they didn't get a stud here. If they are going to be successful offensively in 2026, it's going to be because Lewis and Wallner rebounded, Keaschall maintained over a long season and Lee improved to average, etc. It's not going to be because the 1B is O'Hearn vs. Bell. One of the primary reasons I see it as a positive and that I haven't seen mentioned yet is that it's a tangible sign of addition. It may or may not be the addition people were clamoring for, but it's an addition. Hopefully this also communicates to Coulombe and his agent (or dare I even hope for Luke Weaver?) that the Twins are indeed not dumping Lopez/Ryan/Buxton and are going to be higher than the $90M some have been projecting. (EDIT to add: It also just got better in terms of money available for relievers. It's $5.5M for this year plus $250k bonus and $1.25M in a mutual option that gets paid later.)
  20. IndianaTwin
    Yeah, I think you have to read into to it to get that from Falvey. From the OP: “If two teams are both trying to compete and both have needs, and different ways, how can you swap them? It led to us in our Pablo acquisition a few years ago,” Falvey said. “They wanted Luis Arraez, and we wanted Pablo López, and that was ultimately a fit for us and a fit for them at the same time. It does not always happen like that, but we certainly are looking for that this time of year. We will see if we can execute.” I think he's saying that the ideal trade at this time of year (and I would say at any time) is one that improves both teams. And by definition, pretty much every trade means giving up what the other team wants. If the other team doesn't want what you have to offer, they aren't going to make the trade! The idea that one team "winning" a trade means the other team "lost" that trade is a fallacy.
  21. IndianaTwin
    From MLBTradeRumors: The Astros kicked off the offseason by downplaying the idea that they would consider dealing away either third baseman Isaac Paredes or first baseman Christian Walker to clear the infield logjam the summer’s Carlos Correa trade created, but more recent reporting has suggested at least some discussions involving Paredes with the Red Sox. Paredes has played a reasonable amount of 1B, though I don't know how well. MLBTR also projects him at $10M in arbitration. If there's willingness to take on that amount in free agency, they could do so in a trade, perhaps especially if it started with Ober going back. I don't know the Houston roster well, but it appears the Twins have more SP depth, at least if one is a believer in the Bradley/Abel/Festa, etc., crew.
  22. IndianaTwin
    Another reason Casas may not be needed by the Red Sox is because according to the MLB.com depth charts, it appears Boston plans to start Romy Gonzalez at first, second AND third base. 🤣
  23. IndianaTwin
    I had some of the same thought, though I do like O'Hearn. I don't mind that he bats LH. They face many more right hand pitchers and the Twins already have Buxton, Lewis, Keaschall and Jeffers/Jackson as righties expected to play every day, plus Lee as a switch hitter. Add Martin and they don't really need another RH batter. The only LH batters facing a LHP would be O'Hearn, the RF and the DH. In general, the guys expected to play every day are RH batters. The question marks in terms of playing time are mostly LH batters. @Cory Engelhardt or @Greggory Masterson, I would trust either of you to give us a solid listing of guys who could realistically be acquired in trade. By "realistically," I don't mean the "Hey, the Orioles just signed Alonso. Maybe they would trade Basallo or Rutschman" articles we get from time to time. I mean, Mountcastle/Mayo, Casas if the Red Sox resign Bregman, Vientos had Alonso resigned with the Mets, etc.
  24. IndianaTwin
    I don't think calling it a big drop in talent if they go from $135M to $110M is that helpful. Take Correa's $22M out of the $135M and it's comparing $113M and $110M, roughly the same. There's correlation between payroll and talent level, but it's not a 1:1 correlation. Outliers make a difference. Said another way, they could add $38M to the roster by trading for Rendon and not help the team a bit.
  25. IndianaTwin
    In his announcement press conference, he made a big deal about the amount of learning/reflection he did in his time off. The two quotes from the press conference that most stuck out to me were: Falvey's, "The thing I came away with I was most impressed by was when he talked about how he spent the last four months really diving into what could he have done differently, what could he have done better. How could he have done it in a way that would have led to more success?” Shelton's (in response to a question about what he would do differently and after his own comments on the reflection period), "You have to have conversations and then you have to have follow-up conversations, because what is heard and what is said and then how it is retained sometimes loses it's place and because of that you don't always get the best out of the situation and out of the player." It will be interesting to see if these comments and the one in the OP point to a greater willingness to go with the young guys and consider your B statement.
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