DocBauer

Well, this season's over except for the crying (like after last night), so a young(ish) man's thoughts turn to next season. What should that Opening Day roster look like? Here's my take. Couple of rules - you have to use guys we now have or, if you put in a trade or FA placeholder you have to identify who will be traded and you have to assume that the FA will be $8m a year or less. No signing Pete Alonso or William Contreras to fill the 1B or C hole. That's just a fantasy. Also, take out the idea that guys will be in AAA for a few weeks to suppress service time for this exercise or, if you think that's likely, your roster should be as of May 15 to take that out. 
My philosophy is to push young players quickly now while we're in a rebuild (and that's what this is). I completely reject the idea of signing guys like Harrison Bader, Jesse Winker, or Kiner-Falefa to fill holes to raise our floor so we're mediocre rather than bad. This team isn't a contender looking to patch a few holes; this is a speeded up rebuild. Now is the time to push the chips we have in and see what we got. For example, I love the idea of Walter Jenkins starting next year in LF. Let's see if he's ready in ST and if he shows well, which I think he will, play him now. My thought of the "push ahead to build quickly 2026 roster":
OF - Buxton, Jenkins, Wallner, Martin, Fedko/Gonzalez/Rodriguez/Outman - I think it will be Outman to have the true backup CF but I don't think he lasts long. I'd give Fedko the first shot, then Rodriguez (if he's ever healthy), then Gonzalez. 
IF - Keaschall (1B), Lee (SS), Lewis (3B), K Culpepper (2B), Clemens (1B/2B/OF), Eeles/Holland (UTL). Same deal with Culpepper, if he shows in ST, he's the starting 2B with Eeles, Clemens, Martin, or Holland as plan B. Keaschall fills the 1B hole; he's stretched at 2B and is a bat first guy. 
C - Jeffers, Vasquez (yup, the team ERA since he got hurt shows his value) or vet glove first FA (say Austin Hedges, not Danny Jansen). This is the one area where I value glove and handling the staff/calling the game over bat because of the pitching staff changes. We also don't really have anyone else ready other than maaaybe Noah Cardenas and the FA list is either really expensive or really bad. 
SP - Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews, Bradley. Zebby and Taj get the first crack with the AAA guys listed below up next. Too much talent there to give up or move either of them to the bullpen yet. Both have #2/3 starter potential and Zebby could be a #1 in time. 
RP - Topa, Sands, Hatch, Funderburk, Festa, SWR, Coulombe, Ohl/Lawyerson/FA/RP acquired by trading Larnach. Festa and Topa start as co-closers, Festa is closer by mid-season. On the FA front, I would definitely sign Coulombe and would shoot for our old friends Tyler Rogers and Zack Littel. I would also be talking to Jacob Junis and Kyle Finnegan. Devin Williams might be an interesting reclamation project after pitching great for Milwaukee and flaming our in New York if we can get him for $5-8M a year on a 1 year deal.  
Gone (or in AAA as Depth) - Larnach, Julien, Tonkin, Kriske, Cabrera, Gaspar, and Fitzgerald; Outman unless he hits or maybe right away if Emma comes up. 
AAA rotation - Abel, Prielipp, Rojas, Klein, CJ Culpepper, Morris, Raya. These guys plus Adams, Ohl, and Lewis are the AAA bullpen depth as well; Mike Peredes and Cade Bragg move up to AAA and could be callup candidates depending on how they do. No more throwing guys like Genesis Cabrera, Erasmo Ramirez, or Darren McCaughen into the bullpen.    
This team is more athletic, faster, but inexperienced and the bullpen is a question mark. Rotation is a real strength without injury and has real depth. On offense, run wild like they are now. Buxton and Keaschall should have 20+ stolen bases, Lee, Lewis, Martin, Wallner, Jenkins, and Culpepper should have at least 10. We're going to need to manufacture runs and now you have the pieces to do that. Help the bullpen and starters with a number 2 catcher like Vasquez or Hedges; Jeffers is the DH when he doesn't catch. Put Culpeper at 2B because Lee has come alive since becoming the starting SS. Really try hard to trade Larnach (plus prospect(s) if necessary) for an established average or better reliever or sign one as a FA. Hatch and SWR are 2 plus innings at a time guys. They cover the 4 or 5 inning starts and start on short notice when necessary. No more inning at a time in the middle innings. Bring back Coulombe and/or Taylor Rogers as the second/third LH. Topa, Sands, Festa, Funderburk, Coulombe, and the FA handle the late innings - bring your antacids. 
This team could win 85-90 games; it could win 70-75 games. Wide variation but more fun to watch and better positioned to get better as the year goes on. What do you think?

Yesterday was a rough day for me. I have been fighting cancer for 5 years and this spring it had metastasized. I continue to fight every day. Up at 4:30 to do my stretch, strength and balance work followed by a 5 mile run. With that fight I feel pretty good and have a high energy level in spite of all the meds. Baseball helps keep me going. There are still many more games ahead of me and they matter so much more than a championship. That final Twins trade of Varland set off a trigger in me. We had Varland through 2030. While at a large family gathering as the news kept rolling that 2030 hit hard. The odds are against me that I will be around in 2030. Thinking of the Twins led me to thinking of my first grandchild due in January. I can handle missing the next championship but I got pretty choked at the thought of what I will miss with my granddaughter.
Byron, Ryan, Kody, Royce, Matt, Trevor, Brooks, Christian, DeShawn, Joe, Pablo, Bailey, Simeon, David, Zebby, Cole and Justin I appreciate your fight. No one can make it to the major leagues without fighting everyday. You have fought through slumps. You have fought through injury. We will need your fight more than ever now. To the rest putting on that Twins uniform. I appreciate you. You have fought hard for this opportunity. Use this opportunity to make your mark in the major leagues. Fight to get better every day.
Mr. Falvey and Mr. Baldelli I need you to put up a fight. Make every day matter. Make every game matter. I am counting on you. To the Pohlad’s, you have stopped fighting. This is a concept that I can’t grasp. Every day I wake up excited to take on the day and fight for the next. You wake up every day as owners of a Major League Baseball team. How can you not be driven to fight for their success? I don’t get it. I do appreciate what Carl did for this franchise and what your family did for the community but you have stopped fighting. Please step aside and let someone else lead this franchise.
We need a fighter because every day and every game matters. I will be watching.

The Twins front office and scouting department have done a really good job in recent drafts in finding talent later on, essentially throwing darts at a lot of strike throwing, but low velocity pitchers and this draft class was no different. 
Christian Beccera, Xavier Kolhosser, Jacob Kisting, Cole Peschl, Aidan Haugh, Michael Ross, Merit Jones and Logan Whittaker were 8 of the 10 picks the Twins made on day three, all that were starters at some point in College. Air Force third basemen Jay Thomason was the only position player taken. But the other player I've not mentioned up to this point is probably my favorite pick the Twins made in the late rounds. That being 11th round pick in LHP Michael Carpenter. Committed to Eastern Carolina as a JUCO transfer out of Madison College, Carpenter put up video game like numbers at just 19 years old. Carpenter was named an NJCAA All American after posting a 1.03 ERA and broke the school's single season record for strikeouts with 111 in 78.1 innings pitched with just 11 walks. He also threw 7 complete games. And just look at this stretch he went on in the middle of the season.
In the 11th round in last year's draft, the Twins took Iowa RHP Ty Langdenberg, who was already promoted to Cedar Rapids this year after posting a 3.68 ERA at Fort Myers. Langdenberg is obviously a bit more polished, coming out of Iowa and also being older at 22 years old. Carpenter is intriging to me because of how young he is at just 19, a three-pitch mix that starts with a fastball that tops around 93 with what scouts describe as "deceptive".  It feels like that despite the level of competion that will jump for Carpenter depending on if he signs and where he plays to finish out this season, he feels like an arm to really keep an eye out on in the system. The Twins don't really have a strong left handed pitching prospect outside of Connor Prielipp and the underrated Cesar Lares, so Carpenter's development is even more key to follow. 
Who was your favorite Twins draft pick? Follow me on X @JuhnTroy and stay followed on my blog, where hopefully I post even more this year. 

Let’s Talk Salaries
The Padres traded their “once in a lifetime” superstar to the Yankees for payroll relief. This in spite of drawing over 3.2M fans in 2023 (2nd in NL). The Padres 2023 payroll was $259M (per sportrac.com) and they didn’t make the playoffs. In looking forward, the Padres are currently paying Manny Machado $17M per year until 2025 and then it becomes $25M in 2026 and then $39M for the next 7 years. Fernando Tatis will make $11.7M in 2024, $20.7M in 2025 and 2026, $25.7M in 2027 and 2028, then $36.7M until 2034. Xander Bogaerts will earn $25.45M from 2024 until 2033. It is interesting to add to this horror show the fact that both Tatis and Bogaerts were signed to play shortstop and at this moment they are playing right field and 2nd base respectively. This financial model can best be explained by the saying used by Whimpy in Popeye cartoons when he said, “I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today”.
In the same boat are the Dodgers who this year signed Shohei Ohtani for 10 years at a total contract price of $700M. He will receive $2M in payroll each year until 2032 and then will be paid $68M for the next 10 years. They then signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto for 12 years and $325M (an average of $27M), but paying him $9.2M in 2024. And of course they traded for Tyler Glasnow and his $25M salary and quickly signed him to a lucrative contract extension. At some point, 10 years from now the Dodgers may have an extremely serious payroll problem.
To the credit of the NY Mets, last year under Steve Cohen’s ownership they bought every toy they could find in the toy department. Half way through the year they figured out that buying the best players does not guarantee positive results. At the trade deadline they traded many of their big off season signings for prospects and this off season they decided to sit out the dance and work on improving their farm system. Sanity has visited the Mets.
All of this brings me to the Twins. This past week Joe Pohlad made comments on local radio that seemed to hit the hometown fans the wrong way. He basically declared that the Twins would not be spending money to bringing in one of the high priced Boras Band of Five (now four). He did, however, leave some wiggle room for signing one of the lesser unsigned players who may come at a bargain rate and a short contract because of spring training already being underway.
Being from southern New England and new to the Twins, I’m now reading many fans questioning the ownership’s commitment to putting together a team that can compete for a World Series ring. The term “Cheap Pohlad” is appearing often in comments on X (not going to say, formerly twitter), The Athletic and Twins Daily. The majority of fans believe that the team has a strong and youthful nucleus and that with the addition of a piece or two can compete for the championship. The inability of the front office to add the missing pieces is being blamed on team ownership and their frugal ways.
To fill in my gaps in Twins history I thought that I should take a look at the team’s recent payroll and attendance figures so I can formulate my own opinion.
The Correa Effect
 
Year
Payroll
Prior Yr Attendance
Attend. Yr
2023
$160M
1,801,000
2022
2022
$150M
1,310,000
2021
2021
$123M
0
2020
2020
$135M
2,303,000
2019
2019
$114M
1,959,000
2018
2018
$110M
2,051,000
2017
2017
$104M
1,964,000
2016
 
2017 to 2019 was largely status quo. The attendance fluctuated by no more than 100,000 each year and the payroll showed inflationary increases. No huge surprises to their overall payroll plans.
2020 showed an 18.4% increase based on a 17.6% increase in attendance. Unfortunately 2020 was the Covid season where spectators were not allowed in the ball park, but players still needed to be paid according to their contract terms. I don’t know if ownership was covered by business interruption insurance or if they were stuck with a year of normal expenses (less many game day expenses) with no attendance revenue.
2021 - Probably as a reaction to the Covid season the payroll dropped by $12M for the 2021 season.
2022 – I will call this the Correa Factor. The Twins had a unique opportunity to sign one of baseball’s elites to a 3 year/$105M contract. The contract contained opt outs after each year, so unless Correa was to experience a major injury (which should have been covered by insurance), it was a 1 year/$35M contract. This transaction was probably unforeseen, but the budget was increased by $27M to make it happen. Chances are that the payroll budget may have been reduced because the attendance for the 2021 season only reached 1,310,000, far lower than previous seasons.
2023 – I will call this the Correa Factor II. There was probably little likelihood of Correa having a 2nd season with the Twins, but a funny thing happened, he fell back into their laps when the Giants and Mets were spooked by his physical. The Twins had an opportunity to take him back at a slightly lower rate and a reasonable 6 year term (with team options after that). They couldn’t reduce the budget after this signing so they ended up increasing the payroll from $150M to $160M. Attendance increased by 491,000, but still fell below the 2017-2019 norm.
2024 – They have been operating with a payroll bloated by the Correa double signings, were losing $7-$8M in TV Revenue, attendance had not bounced back to earlier amounts, and they needed to “right size” the budget.
I’ve used the term “right size” frequently in my career as a CFO. The term simply means to have the right number of employees (or payroll) for the amount of sales you are realizing. If your sales decrease from one year to the next you are probably going to look at a layoff or not replacing employees who leave. You match your loss of revenue with a reduction in expenses to keep your bottom line stable.
After all of this background, the Twins are basically saying that after a payroll that has increased by opportunity, not additional revenues, that they need to bring it back to an amount that is consistent with the attendance (and TV revenue) they are generating. That largely brings them back to the 2017-2019 days.
I think that their approach is fiscally reasonable and responsible. Let’s admit it, we were warned early in the off-season that this was going to be a reality. Last week it became cast in stone. However, let’s look at the bright side. There is still wiggle room for a spring training signing to round out the roster, just not one of the big boys.
Cost Per Attendee
To further evaluate the Twins position I decided to compare Payroll to Attendance. I did an analysis of the 2023 attendance for each team compared to their 2023 payroll. The team with the highest payroll for 2023 was the NY Mets and they were ranked 14th in total attendance. They ended up paying their players $137 for each person who attended a game. Second was the White Sox who had the 15th highest payroll but the 24th highest attendance. They ended up paying $108 for each person. The rest of the top 10 were the Yankees at $85, the Angels at $80, the Phillies at $80, the Marlins at $79, the Twins at $78, the Rangers at $77, the Padres at $76 and the Tigers at $76. The Twins ended up in 7th place among the 30 teams. The overall average was $68 for each fan attending. The team that spend the least on payroll compared to attendance were the Orioles at $31.
Some teams can alleviate some of this high cost per attendee because of the ticket prices they charge. A cost to the Mets of $137 per person or the Yankees at $85 can be offset by having higher ticket prices than a team like the Twins or Marlins. It is possible that when this payroll cost per attendee is adjusted by average ticket price, that the Twins may climb up the ladder and be closer to the top ranking.
My Summary or Conclusion (Finally)
My hope for the Twins is that as the trade deadline approaches that we will be able to pickup a premium pitcher to round out our playoff roster. I have complete confidence in ownership that this will happen if the right player and the right deal comes along. They have already opened up for purse strings for Carlos Correa. Strong attendance will be very helpful.
As far as how they handle financial management, I believe paring back payroll and not taking on another $30M per year plunge is perfectly understandable. Their 2023 attendance of 1,974,000 puts them right back to the 2017-2019 years when the team payroll was around $110M. With a $126M payroll for 2024 and a loss of $7M in broadcast fees, it seems like a reasonable budget. Hopefully attendance will increase and there will be a willingness to spend at the trade deadline for any missing pieces.
I am not a Pohlad Family “fan boy”, but I feel that their approach is fiscally sound. While there are teams spending money like drunken sailors, the majority are still living within their means and looking at their front office to make personnel moves that will make a difference. Their standing as 7th when comparing payroll to attendance tells me that they are providing adequate funding to support the team. I can’t justify joining “Cheap Pohlad Club”.

The second pick for the Minnesota Twins in the 2022 draft was the left-handed flame thrower out of Alabama named Connor Prielipp. The Twin's Front Office was excited to be able to draft Prielipp 48th overall, and it showed with the Twins going over slot value and handing Prielipp a $1.825 million signing bonus. Since then, it appears that Connor Prielipp and his devastating fastball-slider mix have fallen off the face of the Earth, and so we must ask… Where in the world is Connor Prielipp? To answer this question, first, we must examine where Prielipp came from before he joined the Twins Organization.
Prielipp arrived at the University of Alabama in 2020 after being ranked as the top left-handed pitcher and number two overall player out of the state of Wisconsin by Perfect Game USA. He backed up his highly touted prep status by becoming the first Freshman to pitch Opening Day for Alabama since Taylor Guilbeau started Opening Day for the Crimson Tide in 2012. Prielipp earned the win that day against my Northeastern Huskies, which was only the start of a magnificent Freshman campaign. Prielipp’s COVID shortened 2020 went to the tune of a 0.00 ERA in 21.0 IP across 4 starts. He struck out 35 batters compared to only 9 walks, and perhaps most impressively: gave up only 5 hits all year, leading to a 0.52 WHIP, lowest in the SEC among qualified pitchers. 
After his incredible 2020, Prielipp was listed as the number 4 pitcher on Baseball America’s College top 150 list for the 2021 season, as well as being named a Preseason All-SEC team member, a First Team Preseason All-American by practically every major publication for college baseball, and was listed on the Golden Spikes Award Preseason Watch List by USA Baseball. The hype surrounding Prielipp extended beyond the realm of college baseball, as many MLB Draft evaluators pegged Prielipp as a potential 1st overall pick in a stacked 2022 draft class that included Jackson Holliday, Druw Jones, and fellow Twin and potential 1st overall pick Brooks Lee. Prielipp again earned the Opening Day nod for the Tide in 2021 and pitched 5 shutout innings against McNeese, picking up 8 strikeouts and only 1 walk in a 10-6 win over the Cowboys. Unfortunately, this is where the wheels begin to fall off for Prielipp’s journey. In Prielipp’s start against McNeese, it had turned out that he had suffered from an elbow injury. Prielipp took a two-month recovery to see if the elbow could heal on its own and returned to pitch one inning against Auburn. However, the break had not fully healed his elbow and Prielipp missed another month before making an appearance against LSU, which would end up being Prielipp’s final appearance in college baseball as he opted for Tommy John surgery which ended his 2021 and his 2022 seasons. 
Connor Prielipp’s college career ended with an absurd 0.97 ERA, 15.1 K/9, and a 2.25 BB/9. Granted this is all with the caveat of only pitching 28 innings in his time at Tuscaloosa. However, his 95-mph fastball paired with his plus-plus slider still played, as he was able to prove himself in a post-surgery bullpen in front of MLB scouts before the 2022 MLB Draft. This bullpen and Prielipp’s prior pedigree convinced the Twins that the upside Prielipp had coming into 2021 was still there, leading to the Twins selecting Prielipp with the 48th pick in the 2022 Draft. 
As is the norm with most drafted pitchers, Prielipp did not make an in-game appearance in pro ball in 2022, instead, the Twins were careful with him and his surgically repaired elbow, only allowing him to throw in the Instructional League. 
Once Prielipp arrived at Spring Training in 2023, he once again blew the Twins staff away with his raw stuff. He showcased the same fastball and slider but also showed a low 80s changeup that he did not showcase often at Alabama. After impressing in the spring, Prielipp made his professional debut with High-A Cedar Rapids on April 9th, 2023, against Peoria. The Twins once again wanting to be careful with Prielipp’s arm limited him to a 4-inning outing in which he gave up 3 earned runs, struck out 3 batters, and walked another 2. After this start, the Twins placed Prielipp on the 7-Day IL with arm soreness and inflammation. At the time the Front Office played down any concerns that they might have had with this injury, believing that Prielipp’s arm would respond well to rest. After a month-long absence, Prielipp returned in June to make a rehab start with the FCL Twins. Prielipp’s rehab start lasted 2.2 innings in which he allowed 2 earned runs, struck out 4 batters, and walked 2. After his rehab start, Prielipp and the Twins made the decision to operate on his elbow yet again. On July 14th, 2023, Prielipp had an internal brace placed in his left elbow by Dr. Keith Meister. This can be perceived as good news as this is a less invasive procedure than traditional Tommy John, which usually requires a less intensive, albeit lengthy rehab. 
Now that we know where Prielipp came from, where do we go from here? Prielipp projects to return from surgery this summer, yet, with less than 40 innings pitched in the last 4 years, it is difficult to project where Prielipp will go from here. However, MLB Pipeline has Prielipp ranked as the 7th prospect in the Twins Organization, and as the 3rd highest pitcher in the organization, ahead of arms like David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Matt Canterino. The reasoning for this is quite simple: Connor Prielipp’s slider is the best pitch the Twins have in their farm system. MLB Pipeline has it ranked as a 70 grade on the 20-80 scale. The pitch’s sharp vertical movement paired with the ability to touch 90mph on it, and showing that he can throw it consistently for strikes means it is a lethal tool for the left-hander. Prielipp showed the Twins that the pitch was still there after his first operation both in pre-draft workouts and later in 2023 Spring Training. The key to Prielipp’s success is showing that the pitch is still there after his second operation. If Prielipp returns from his surgery and can use his slider as he was able to in the past, he could likely become a key cog for the Twins’ rotation plans.
Prielipp looks to be ready for MLB action in around 2026, where he could be a monster out of the bullpen or a potential frontline starter. The Twins’ obvious priority is to get a healthy season of development from Prielipp, but it should not shock anyone if they decide to build Prielipp up as a starter as they currently are with another prospect with monster stuff and injury concerns: Matt Canterino. If all goes right for Prielipp in his rehab and development, the Twins could have another feather in their cap from their already very impressive 2022 pitching draft class. 

From DFA’d to premier setup man in less than four years, Brock Stewart has one of the best stories in baseball and is poised to play a big role on the 2024 Twins. 
In 2019, Stewart was DFA’d by the Dodgers before being picked up by the Blue Jays. Stewart only threw 21 innings with the Blue Jays but his time there was the worst of his career. He pitched to a 55 ERA+ along with a career low in K/9 at 6.6. Furthermore, his fastball sat at a middling 91 MPH. As a result, he was once again DFA’d. After a lost season in 2020 due to covid, Stewart looked to get back on the mound but was hit by a slew of elbow injuries and was sidelined for a year. Now as a 30 year old, he was running out of options to be able to keep pitching and he turned to Tread Athletics to give him another shot.
Tread is a sports performance center located in North Carolina that specializes in using advanced data to highlight weaknesses and improve all aspects of a pitcher's game. While at Tread, Stewart focused on two things: change his slider to a sweeper and add a cutter to his repertoire. Within months of working at Tread, he hit a new best of 96 MPH on his fastball.
Stewart was eventually signed to a minor league deal with the Twins after seeing his new pitch mix and mechanics he developed while at Tread. On April 27th 2023, Stewart made his Twins debut pitching two scoreless against the Royals. Stewart pitched only 27 innings in 2023 but they were dominant. He allowed only 2 earned runs and had a .65 ERA while striking out 12.7/9.
When looking even deeper into some of his pitches, you can truly see his effectiveness. He throws his fastball the most out of any of his pitches at 39% and for good reason. Compared to his pre-Tread fastball, the average MPH has bumped over 6 MPH to 97.3. He is able to generate a high spin rate of 2600 which gives him a well above average Bauer Unit score of 26.76 (league average is 24). On top of his high spin rate, the spin efficiency is great as well at 82%. For comparison, an average MLB 2-seamer has a 2150 spin rate and a spin efficiency in the range of 75-100%. This means that Stewart has the spin profile of a 2-seamer with the spin rate of an electric 4-seamer. The result of this is a xwhiff+ score of 132, above the likes of dominant pitchers such as Spencer Strider and Alexis Diaz.
The biggest focus during his time at Tread was the development of a new sweeper and it transformed his pitch mix. Prior to his injuries, Stewart was throwing a more traditional gyro slider which only generated 4.7 inches of horizontal movement. His sweeper that he showed off in 2023 has a whopping 15.6. Compared to his 2018 slider, the opponent’s xBA and hard hit% dropped off substantially when facing this sweeper. This pitch was developed as a more effective way to get righty batters out and it did just that. He threw the sweeper to righties 71% of the time and had a stuff+ score of 132 when facing same handed hitters.
The final of his three main pitches is the cutter, another pitch he developed at tread. The cutter acts as a medium between the fastball and sweeper at an average of 93.3 MPH and 2.3 inches of horizontal movement but it is just as effective. Opponents batted a mere .071 against it and he had his highest put away% of 40% while using the cutter. Even the expected stats back up the dominance of the pitch with a xSLG of only .231.
When looking at the 2024 Twins outlook, the bullpen is slated to be the biggest bright spot of the team and a full season of Brock Stewart is massive to the success of the pen overall. It may be easy to write off his 2023 season as something like a fluke due to the low innings count but all underlying numbers and pitch data suggest otherwise. 
Finally, Stewart’s story shows the increasing prevalence and usefulness of advanced data and pitch tracking. Sports centers such as Tread and Driveline are becoming increasingly popular as it allows athletes to use data they normally wouldn’t be able to see to fully tap into their abilities. It also gives MLB teams further insight and aids them in making potentially multi-million dollar deals. Without them, the Twins would have never signed Brock Stewart who looks to be one of the biggest factors of a Twins team that is poised to run it back in the playoffs.

TV--While the details are not known, the Twins have re-upped with Diamond/Bally for another (and final season). I am one that has been able to watch every Twins game, which is the main reason I have the "Sports Pack" on DirecTV. The reported amount on the television contract is 85% of what the Twins received in 2023, a reduction of perhaps $8M. The prospects for a better number in 2025 are not great unless the Twis profit greatly from streaming. While I am relieved the Twins will be available on TV and I don't have to do anything to see a great majority of their games, it seems to me the long-term outlook is still plenty cloudy. Rights fees are going to fall, perhaps precipitously, and the cost to subscribers on cable is almost certain to jump. How much, a no-blackout streaming contract would generate is open to questions from all sides? How much will the teams get? How much will the streamer charge to subscribe? What are fans going to pay and will they be willing to pay what is charged? It has entered my mind that if things go sideways, overall revenue will drop sharply to the point that players salaries will go down. IMHO, the cost for medium talent is out of hand--give Shohei and Judge their money, but don't pay obscene amounts to okay to good players. Arbitration season contracts bear this out, as well.
Injuries--Probably fifteen (maybe more) teams can credibly say today (within days of Spring Training) if they have good health, they will make the post season. I would say that includes the Twins. In 2022, the Twins used the IL second most in MLB. Last year, they were sixth. The difference for the Twins from 2022 to 2023 is that they had major league players available when other players went down. They were six or seven deep in competent starting pitchers and had major league ready players available for position player injuries. Bailey Ober and Louie Varland filled in well and guys like Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer and Michael A Taylor met or exceeded expectations and got plenty of playing time. Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien got their chances as well and cemented themselves into the Twins' 2024 plans. This year, the Twins have added on veteran, Carlos Santana, to the position player mix, but Solano and Taylor are gone and Jorge Polanco was traded. Reinforcements would come from the same system that produced Lewis, Wallner and Julien. Last year, Polanco and Kirilloff started the season on the IL, this year there is no such carryover, but there is less proven depth to cover absences due to injuries, especially the starting pitching rotation. On the subject of injuries, I've seen TD posters question the recoveries of Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Jose Miranda and newcomer Anthony DeSlafani. and Josh Staumont. Who knows? Maybe none of them will be ready, but there's no evidence either way that they won't be healthy on Wednesday. We shall see. Personally, I doubt the recovery of DeSclafani the most. 
Bullpen--In contrast to the position player possibilities and the starting rotation, the Twins have added a bunch of veteran relief arms, most of them with options. Josh Staumont, Jay Jackson, Justin Topa and Zack Weiss were added to the bullpen and all are over 30, all under team control for multiple years and all but Jackson have options. They have additional pitchers with big league experience on minor league contracts. I'd say they have redundancy in the bullpen. They shouldn't have much hesitancy to option any of these guys and someone should be effective. The floor of the bullpen has been lifted considerably.
Carlos Santana--Yeah, he's 38 and he hasn't been a truly above-average hitter for five years, but he had 23 homers and 86 RBI last year. I can't see a huge falloff in 2024 from this guy. He's historically better against left handed pitching and his floor with the 2024 Twins is as a platoon partner for Alex Kirilloff. Injuries will probably give him plenty of at-bats against right handers. It is an open question if another, younger option might be a better fit. If Santana crashes and burns, I would hope the Twins can cashier him rather than keep him on the roster all season. 
 

I didn't wanna see him go in 2018.
While I sat at home watching the Twins play on a perfect Minnesota night in September, Mauer came to the plate in the bottom of the 5th inning against the nemesis New York Yankees, and the ingredients were in place for this at-bat to be something special. The Twins were up 6-1 and the bases were loaded, and everyone watching knew Joe Mauer had exactly one thing on his mind: taking the first pitch, which he did, for a ball.
Because that was Joe's process. A quiet, understated patience that drove pitchers to frustration and subtly nudged umpires to up their game. Without saying a word, he communicated to his opponent that he was going to force him to deliver a pitch he could hit.
This was also evident in the broadcast booth, as Mauer's old teammate, Justin Morneau, commented on what we were about to see with just a tinge of excitement in his voice.
"I'll be surprised if Joe swings early, and I'll be surprised if he swings at anything out of the zone."
Joe took another pitch, a 96 mph fastball which caught the corner for a strike. Joe barely reacted while he kicked the dirt and began setting up for the next pitch. It was then that Morneau said something which made me catch my breath.
Upon Dick Bremer remarking that Mauer's average with RISP was still 5th in the league despite having dipped a bit, Morneau offered more than just platitudes: he offered an opinion.
"And that's the part that tells me he still has something left in the tank - he still should continue to play baseball when he can come through in those situations."
With Mauer's future uncertain and his contract coming to a close, this felt like a papal decree. For Justin Morneau, one of Mauer's closest friends, to make a statement like that during a broadcast?! Surely he would know what Mauer was planning for the future and wouldn't comment otherwise, right? 
Mauer took his third consecutive pitch for another strike on the outside edge, making it 1-2.
"Come on, Joe! Swing at 'em!" someone shouted from the stands.
Joe stepped out of the box and calmly looked around, resetting his focus and taking a big breath before watching the 4th pitch hit the dirt, and the 5th pitch follow right behind for a full count.
5 pitches, and the crowd was beginning to buzz without Joe ever taking the bat off his shoulder. 
"This is what Joe Mauer does, he makes you throw him something that he wants to hit."
And so it was, on this crisp autumn night, as Yankees pitcher Tommy Kahnle grooved a fastball directly down the center of the strike zone. and Joe Mauer let loose all the energy that he'd been holding in reserve up until that point.
Dick Bremer was immediately on the mic. "A high blast to center field! Going back is Hicks!"
"Go ahead, ball!" implored Roy Smalley.
"That ball is GONE, a grand slam!"
The only swing that Joe Mauer made was a no-doubter, and Target Field let their appreciation for their hometown kid be known. Sitting in my office with my dog asleep on my lap, it was all I could do to raise my arms in silent appreciation. He's still got it. He's still my guy.
"Like I said, there's plenty left in the tank right there. That's fun to watch," Morneau repeated. From his mouth to the front office's ears, I thought.
I didn't wanna see him go.
But baseball isn't a scripted narrative, and life doesn't revolve around sports, despite how much we believe it to be true. Mauer would take his final curtain call at catcher a few weeks later, while I tried to convince myself that this was simply him hedging his bets - this was just in case things didn't work out when he'd come back to the team to talk about a short extension. The lies we knowingly tell ourselves when the truth would be too painful.
Joe Mauer's legacy is one that is almost amusing in its stubborn adherence to form: an understated stature that loomed large when it needed to, never flashy, and knowing what was needed at the right time. In 2018, Mauer knew that it was time to be a dad, looking back on his career and deeming it a fine enough journey to be proud of. 
Later today, Joe Mauer will get the delicious icing of finding out that the baseball world wholeheartedly agrees with that assessment with his election to the Hall of Fame. A perfect ending to the career of an unassuming kid who, throughout it all, let his patience do the talking.
Here's to you, Joe.

I have speculated that if the Twins acquire a starting pitcher, he won’t clearly be seen as a top 50 or 60 starter. I would think the guy will be either unproven, an injury risk or coming off a disappointing or unproductive season. Further, I think most teams are placing a high price on pitching, particularly guys under team control.
Teams that have no real hope of contending should be a little more willing to part with starters under team control because by the time they expect to contend, guys in the majors will have moved on. In addition, bad teams might have pitchers whose stats look worse because they are playing for a bad team. Maybe a bad bullpen allowing lots of inherited runners to score, perhaps bad defense behind him or instances where the manager had no choice but to let a team put up crooked numbers because there was nobody available in the bullpen.
There were four 100-loss teams in 2023. Two of them were in the AL Central and thus would be unlikely to deal with the Twins. The other two teams are Oakland and Colorado. In exploring the pitching staffs for those two teams, my first thought was ugh!, there just isn't anything there. However, in looking a little deeper, I found one guy from each staff to consider. From Colorado, Austin Gomber was 29 last year and pitched 139 innings, he is a lefty, something I think the Twins would like to have in their rotation. In looking at Gomber's home-road splits, he compiled a 3.68 ERA on the road, away from Coors Field. I don't know anything about his injury history, but acquiring the road Austin Gomber for prospects might be something to consider. It appears that Coors messes with a lot of pitchers' heads and adjustments made in the high altitude diminish effectiveness when the pitcher is at a normal altitude. 
From Oakland, I nominate JP Sears. Similar to Gomber, he is a lefty in his late 20s. He worked over 170 innings last year and while his numbers weren't good overall, he seems to have worn down over the course of the year and perhaps the wearing down was exacerbated by being on a terrible team. His first half ERA was 3.97 with a 1.044 WHIP. and over 8 Ks per nine innings pitched. The walks and hits soared in the second half, so I will speculate he did wear out. He's not a big guy--5'11"180 lbs.--and this was his first full year of the major leagues. Also, I have to suspect that his manager was forced to work him longer in games because of the rest of the pitching staff being pretty awful. The coming season might allow Sears to handle additional work better and the Twins probably would be better suited to conserve his innings pitched. 
I know very little about either pitcher mentioned other than a quick look at BBRef. For all I know, either or both could already be scheduled for major surgery, but I do think looking for an undervalued asset on a bad team is one way to get value. 

It's that time of year, and the Minnesota Twins will soon be fully engaged with spring training activities down in Sunny Fort Myers, Florida. Before the season kicks off though, and with prospect positioning set to move, I needed to put out my updated top 15 prospects for the 2024 Major League Baseball season.
The highest ranked player on the 2023 list, Royce Lewis, has since graduated and he took a couple of players with him. Both Matt Wallner and Louie Varland are no longer prospect eligible, and Edouard Julien joined them in becoming a regular for Rocco Baldelli's squad. It should be expected that a few of these names will move on by the time the dust settles on 2024, and that would be a good outcome in terms of development.
I have been posting my top 15 prospect lists here since 2016, and you can find each of them below:
2016 Top 15 Prospects
2017 Top 15 Prospects
2018 Top 15 Prospects
2019 Top 15 Prospects
2020 Top 15 Prospects
2021 Top 15 Prospects
2022 Top 15 Propsects
2023 Top 15 Prospects
Now to get into the 2024 list:
15. Yunior Severino INF
Signed when the Atlanta Braves were made to forfeit players from an international signing class that they cheated to acquired, Severino has become the darling of that group. He emerged to the highest level of the farm for Minnesota last year and showed thump that could have him as a valuable first base type. There's a lot of swing and miss, but he's now on the 40-man roster and has a clear path to a debut.
14. Matt Canterino RHP
No one has bounced around more on these prospect lists for me over the years than Canterino. Drafted out of Rice, he underwent Tommy John surgery and has dealt with arm issues as many of their pitchers do. Fully healthy, he could be an absolute weapon for Minnesota in relief this year. His stuff is impressive, and should play up even more as a reliever.
13. C.J. Culpepper RHP
A 13th round pick in 2022, Culpepper reached High-A Cedar Rapids in his first full professional season. The 3.56 ERA across 86 innings was impressive, and he owned a 9.3 K/9. There's still plenty of development to take place here, but a late round arm that works in the vein of Bailey Ober or Louie Varland is something to dream on.
12. Kala'i Rosario OF
Sent to the Arizona Fall League after the season, Rosario got in extra reps and showed out with the power. He flashed some exciting potential during big league spring training action prior to the 2023 season, and his solid year at High-A should have him ready for the Double-A challenge this season at just 21 years old.
11. Luke Keaschall INF
Minnesota took Keaschall in the second round of the 2023 Major League Baseball draft out of Arizona State and he immediately took to pro ball. He posted an .892 OPS in 31 games, and helped the Cedar Rapids Kernels secure a championship at the end of the season. He probably starts in Iowa, but could make his way to Double-A Wichita quickly.
10. Tanner Schobel INF
The Virginia Tech product tore up High-A Cedar Rapids in 2023 and earned a promotion to Double-A. He struggled out of the gate for Wichita, but did bat .294 over his final 14 games. He'll need to tap back into some of the power potential that was left in Cedar Rapids, but there's the makings of a big league regular here.
9. Charlee Soto RHP
The Twins took Soto with the 34th overall pick in the 2023 draft and he didn't pitch at all last season. Looking to build up his body and prepare for pro ball, 2024 should be a fun debut season. There is an upper-90's fastball in the arsenal, and while he's a high school arm, there is a lot to work with here.
8. Brandon Winokur OF
A tools'd out high school kid taken in the third round of the 2023 draft, Winokur impressed in limited action last year. He posted an .884 OPS across 17 games at the rookie ball level, and he showed off the power and speed combination. The plate discipline is something to watch as he develops, but the ceiling for him is immense.
7. Cory Lewis RHP
Drafted just inside of the first ten rounds during 2022, Lewis has emerged as one of Minnesota's best pitching prospects. He throws a knuckle ball but isn't a knuckleballer. With dominant stuff that led to a 10.5 K/9 in his first pro season, Lewis could start at Double-A in 2024 and may be a late season option for the Twins to consider.
6. Austin Martin INF/OF
Similar to Canterino, Martin has bounced around on my prospect lists. He got back to a workable swing last year, and while the power potential isn't there, he has solid bat to ball skills and has a good contact ability. Speed is the play here, and while exit velocities could limit his overall production, he already profiles as a plus defender in center field.
5. David Festa RHP
Taken in the 13th round of the 2021 draft, Festa represented the Twins at the 2023 Futures Game. He made his way to Triple-A St. Paul and is right there among the best pitching prospects in the organization. Festa can push velocity while also showing a strong command of his pitches. He had 119 strikeouts in 92 1/3 innings last season. Expect to see him at Target Field in 2024.
4. Marco Raya RHP
If Festa isn't the best pitching prospect in the organization, then it is Raya. Just 20 years old and a former prep arm, the Twins already have him at Double-A. He took his lumps for Wichita, but was incredibly young for the level and should be expected to use that experience for significant offseason development. He'll begin 2024 with the Wind Surge again, but getting to Triple-A St. Paul at 21 would be eye-opening.
3. Emmanuel Rodriguez OF
One of the most exciting prospects across baseball, Rodriguez has significant power potential and his ceiling is that of a slugging corner outfielder with all-star aspirations. He posted a ridiculous .400 OBP for Cedar Rapids last year despite batting just .240, and he doesn't sacrifice plate discipline for power. A meteoric rise could happen this year at 21, but Rodriguez's future is still one to be excited about even if it takes a bit more time.
2. Brooks Lee INF
Maybe the safest bet to be a big league regular for a long time across all organizations in baseball, Lee is near major league ready at this point. He's going to hit for more average than power, and can play shortstop but doesn't necessarily need to. He does everything well, and if any of the tools take another step forward, he'll end his career with more than a few all-star selections under his belt.
1. Walker Jenkins OF
The fifth overall pick from the 2023 Major League Baseball Draft, Jenkins is a superstar in every sense of the word. He may outgrow centerfield as his body develops, but he should hit for average and power while remaining a strong defender and runner. The maturity here is off the charts, and the abilities could push him into future MVP discussions. A 2024 debut isn't going to happen, but all bets should be off in 2025.
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I know everyone is starting to get a bit nervous, given the Twins' lack of activity this offseason. The season ended a month+ ago now, but I still feel it right to look over what I think the Twins should target this offseason. I'm gonna preface this by saying these are all ideas I think are realistic. I'm taking at face-value Falvey's comments on the TV-deal situation, and the idea that cutting costs is a goal (as much as us fans may disagree with it), thus most of these ideas are involve cheaper options or cutting money to spend it elsewhere.
1. Starting pitching help
This has to be the top priority of the FO going into the season. I agree with not resigning Gray and Maeda at the costs they went for, but it opens up holes that need to be filled. Right now we know the rotation projects to be Pablo, Joe Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Varland. In that I see 4 ? marks, Ober and Paddack have durability concerns, Joe Ryan desperately needs consistent secondaries and more sustained velocity, and Varland has yet to be an effective starter at the MLB level. The goal has to be to move Varland to the bullpen, thus I think we can get away with adding just one starter, but I think two would be ideal. I was frustrated with the twins lack of use of their second "long relief" guy they permanently rostered, and worst come to worst I'd be fine seeing a 6-man rotation when needed, maybe it helps keep guys fresh and healthy. I think there are a few good ways we could go about acquiring pitching, and I will also mention the classic twins method I'd expect to see if those preferable routes fail.
1a.. Add a high upside, high risk FA for relatively cheap
-If I were to pick one guy we should be targeting in all of free agency, it would be Frankie Montas. Coming off an injury, and limited success directly before that, he'll be as cheap as he ever will be. I think the concern about pitchers injury history is overblown. All pitchers get hurt, Montas doesn't concern me, he's got a giant frame and has sustained higher inning volume in the past, if there's mechanical issues I trust we can fix those. For those unfamiliar with his repertoire, Montas has a big fastball, and a great changeup. I think if he's just healthy he slots in right behind Pablo. I also think just like Pablo, he's some small tweaks with his breaking balls away from being elite elite. I love the risk:reward ratio here, and would love to see him added on 2--3+ yr deal.
1b. Trade for front end pitching
-There's a few guys rumored to be available, that should be definite targets of the twins, they're young, the have years of control, and they have big stuff. Those are the most important factors in my mind. Because of what I just mentioned they'll cost a hefty prospect package, and rightfully so, but if I'm the twins I'm open to trading anyone not named Emmanuel Rodriguez (I think his consensus value is more representative of his floor right now). These pitchers I'm referring to are in order of my preference: Jesus Luzardo (MIA), Logan Gilbert (SEA), Mitch Keller (PIT), Tarik Skubal (DET). I've seen rumors about all of these guys being available, but if I were to place bets, I'd bet against us actually acquiring any of these names.
-There's a next tier of pitchers that should be available, again young and thus cost-efficient, but a bit less proven and a bit less going on in the developed repertoire department. The names I'd be targeting in this group are Bryan Woo (SEA), Bryce Miller (SEA), Edward Cabrera (MIA), Trevor Rogers (MIA), Reid Detmers (LAA), Patrick Sandoval (LAA), Griffin Canning (LAA). The SEA guys will still take a pretty big prospect haul, but in general these guys are gonna be a bit cheaper to acquire. Again, these are all guys I'd project to slot in as our #2 currently, with realistic developmental potential to become a top-end starter.
1c. Add a more established FA
-There's a couple guys out there that I think are interesting for the twins, they maybe aren't quite as young, but these are good value, solid upside picks. There's only a few guys in here, none of them are particularly exciting, but it's better than 1d, which I'll get too shortly. The first two I'd highlight are LHPs, James Paxton and Sean Manaea, which I think is an organizational need, and they have real solid stuff, and are gonna be relatively affordable. I'd also look at Lucas Giolito, has had some good years, and there's still the potential to develop his breaking ball and get a bit more out of him. I think because of his past success, he'll still net a good contract, possibly pricing us out. All 3 of these guys, as I mentioned, aren't exciting, probably slotting in as 4-5 guys in our rotation, but that's just fine if it allows Varland to be the weapon we know he can be in the bullpen.
1d. The Twins special, add a washed up elder with a bad stuff profile
-This is what I fear will happen. The JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy type additions. We do it way too much and it always kills me, adding these older guys who don't throw hard and don't have any other out pitches left. It's a waste of money, and it's a waste of starts when we could get the same results from AAA guys at a fraction of the cost.
2. Add a Right Handed Bat
-I honestly don't care too much about what position they play, or if it comes from free agency or trade. I do think Hoskins will be too expensive for us realistically, but would love to see that addition. One guy I'd love to see us go after that almost makes too much sense, is Jo Adell (LAA). He's got a top prospect pedigree, has killed at AAA but struggled with production at the MLB level and injuries. He just can't crack consistent playing time with the angels, and I think a straight up trade for Trevor Larnach could be great for both sides as the angels need LHH. Baseballtradevalues.com calls this a fair trade, but I love Adell for us and would be willing to go even higher.  He's a big time athlete, crazy power and can steal bases, he'd play every day against LHP, and if we can get him going he's got huge middle of the order potential. I think it'd be a great pickup with serios boom potential and almost no cost to us. As far as free agents go, Bader makes alot of sense, versatile, hits LHP, can play CF. If you're looking more for an impact bat, the guy that would be exiting to me would be Soler.
3. Trade Christian Vazquez
One of my gripes with this front office, is that they seem very slow to admit mistakes. I'd love to be proven wrong here and see them ship Vazquez off, but I doubt it happens. $20M for the next two years is just too much, he's not getting any younger, doesn't make hard contact, and we saw in the playoffs exactly where he fits into this roster...on the bench. There's a market out there for catchers, the Braves were able to move Max Stassi and his $7.5M within a day of getting him, and he's barely played this year. I'd trade Vazquez for no one, or even give up some low end prospect to give him off the books, but right now if the budget is what we're told, the $10M he's owed this year needs to be allotted to shoring up other weaknesses. I'm not sure what the Twins are gonna do, but it was interesting to see Jair Camargo get added to the 40-man, it gives me a bit of hope that they're at least trying to move Vazquez. FWIW Camargo's bat is electric, and he's gonna get a chance in the MLB some day with some team, would love for it to be here in a 70-30/60-40 type split with Jeffers this year.
4. Add Relief Help
Injuries happen, we have a good bullpen on paper right now, that is a fact, but there should always be a focus on adding depth. We have Duran, Jax and Stewart locked in to high leverage roles as long as they stay healthy, Alcala deserves a shot at that 6th inning-Emilio Pagan role, we forget too easily he's not far removed from being dominant in 2021. His stuff has been great in winter ball, and I think in a one-inning role (I'll revolt if they try and use him in a multi-inning role again coming off injury) he will be great. As mentioned before, it's yet to be seen what happens with Varland, but if he's in the pen, pencil him in for the Duran 2022-lite role, he'll face the best guys when they first come up in mid-late innings. As I said, real solid potential in the bullpen already, and I think there are a couple guys in the minors who could be difference makers too this year, Matt Canterino if he can stay healthy, and Ronny Henriquez, health abiding as well. But, as I said, depth does not hurt, guys in the bullpen will get hurt, it's just a fact. I wouldn't be looking to spend big money on the well known commodities, I'm looking at cheaper under the radar guys with big stuff, who could get a shot at a low leverage role and potentially run with it. There's a few guys I'll namedrop: Shintaro Fujinami, Codi Heuer, Josh Staumont, all of these guys could easily be DFA candidates by midseason, but they also have big time stuff and will be well worth the small risk of investment. The only two well-known names on the FA market that interest me are Jordan Hicks and Wandy Peralta, as I mentioned, I doubt we'll get either, but would be excited to see either in MPLS.
5, Don't give up on the young guys yet
Recency bias is strong, and I think in the case of Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff it's fair, they both were a bit (at the least) frustrating last year. I know both now have injury concerns, but the value their contracts provide is fantastic for a smaller market team looking to cut costs. I keep seeing bigger names thrown around on Twins Twitter for who we should sign in FA to play 1B/DH, but I think it would be perfectly wise to give that position to in house guys. For context Alex Kirilloff was rarely healthy last year, and he still put up an OPS+ of 117, that's a starting quality offensive player. I also think that's fair to assume is near his floor, his bat speed clearly wasn't what it was as a rookie last year, and he didn't provide a ton of pop, but I think there's legitimate potential to regain that bat speed/power and become the 30 HR guy he was projected to be coming up. The context for Miranda is simple, the guy has hit everywhere he went the 3 years prior to last year. Don't forget that every single one of us would have penciled him in happily as the 3/4/5 hitter in the opening day lineup this last year. Sure, his batted ball metrics were never great even in 2022, but he hit for contact and he hit for power, a combo that no one else on this team possesses to the level he did. One injury riddled season isn't indicative of his whole career, and I think he's earned plenty of shots to produce this next year. My point being, it is just too early to give up on these guys, and we've seen that when they're healthy they're just too good for AAA, that's why I do not think the 1B/DH position should be an offseason priority for this team, as the roster stands currently. Even behind Kirilloff and Miranda there's an in-house guy in Yunior Severino who is deserving of a shot at the MLB. Keep the Rhys Hoskins money and spend it on pitching and a right handed outfielder.
That's my TedTalk, let me know what you all think. 

Journeyman reliever Héctor Carrasco pitched for 12 seasons in the Major Leagues, which included two stints with the Minnesota Twins. He also played for the Reds, Angels, Royals, Red Sox, Nationals, and Orioles.
Carrasco first came to Minnesota through waivers just before the 1998 season. The Diamondbacks had selected him from Kansas City in the expansion draft that winter, but he waived right before Opening Day and the Twins picked him up. He went 4-2 with a 4.38 ERA and a save over 63 relief appearances in 1998. His 1.719 WHIP was the worst among any big league pitcher with at least 60 appearances that season. 1999 and 2000 weren’t that much better for Carrasco. His biggest highlight in a Twins uniform might be surrendering Cal Ripkin’s 3,000th hit early in the 2000 season.
Minnesota was able to trade Carrasco to Boston late in 2000. The return was a lottery ticket Single-A outfield prospect who had been a 12th round pick. Nobody really expects much from a trade like this. There are zero expectations for these moves to wind up producing a big league player. But this one did. The lottery ticket prospect was Metrodome fan favorite Lew Ford.
After pitching just eight games with the Red Sox, Carrasco returned to the Twins as a free agent that next offseason. He posted a 4.64 ERA over 56 appearances with the Twins in 2001. Over four seasons in Minnesota, Carrasco had a 4.53 ERA with four saves across 219 games.
He would keep pitching in the Majors through 2007. His career year came in 2005, when he had a 2.05 ERA over 64 games with the Nationals. Carrasco continued to pitch professionally until 2012, spending time in the Atlantic League and the Mexican League.

Alright folks listen up I have some thoughts I want to get off my chest and I'm digging deeper then a home run hit by the REAL TC Bear at the Metrodome so buckle up.  In this essay, I will explore and evaluate Carlos Correa's performance as assistant general manager, 2 years in.
On January 11th 2023 a day that will live in infamy Carlos Correa who was turned down because of medicals by the giants and Mets came crawling back to Minnesota because no one else would take him and he got 200 million buckaroos to boot.  And that fateful day he was dubbed "assistant general manager of the Minnesota Twins" by Thad Levine and Scott Boris.  Miriam Webster defines assistant as "a person who assists someone" general as "not confined by specialization or careful limitation" and manager as "a person who conducts business or household affairs" so that means Correa is someone who assists the business of the Twins that is not confined by specialization.
Now I have a gripe to pick with that definition as Correa is confined by specialization he's just a defensive specialist stop me if you heard this before but he's just another Mark Belanger in the field and he shouldn't hit higher then seventh.  But I suppose that's besides the point because these days there changing grammar rules to fit what people are more comfortable with.  Just the other year the Associated Press (whom I would never want to associate with) said that "less" and "fewer" are interchangeable now. Folks,, that's fewer then ideal if you ask me.  Fewer refers to quantifiable entities but less refers to things you can't "count."  Theres less sand on the beach but fewer grains of sand I'll just leave it at that if you catch my drift.
But I digress.  With Correa's new title as assistant general manager (abbreviated to AGM henceforth) comes responsibility.  Just like Uncle Ben told Luke Skywalker, with Great Power Comes Great Responsibility.  So where is his assistant general manager responsibility when cheap pohlad issues a edict from on high that the Twins are cutting payroll.  The pocket protectors at the Athletic reported that it could be as low as 125 million but with how buddy-buddy those clowns are with the owners, I would guess it will be closer to 115 DESPITE the taxpayer funded stadium.
If Carlos Correa is really the AGM, why hasn't he stepped up to the plate and forced cheap pohlad to recant his ways?  A true leader would walk right up to that man and demand a bigger payroll, even if that meant he got cut and didn't get his 30 million dollars a year.  It's called integrity.  My first job I walked into the managers office and said "sir I would like a job" and look at me now I'm the floor supervisor.  It's called initiative.  cheap pohlad might even like his gumption.  The Twins are paying Correa enough that he shouldn't be afraid to step up and do the right thing but I guess that's just how baseballer are raised these days when they don't live in fear of Bob Gibson or Christy Mathewson or Eddie Cicotte putting one in there earhole.
Speaking of doing the right thing, the Twins never bunt except for scrappy infielder Jorge Polanco and my favorite player Michael A. Taylor who sneakily plays the game the right way.  Why hasn't Correa sat Baldelli (the "field manager") and told him "No Rocco, we're playing smallball now.  Its not 2019 anymore.  If it was good enough for the 1927 Yankees than why isn't it good enough for the 2024 Twins."  As AGM, he is Rocco's boss.  He's a puppet for the front office anyway and that includes Carlos.
And another thing, speaking about bunting.  How come bunting is only placed around the stadiums after the fourth of July (Independence Day).  I really like those little half-circle flags.  They really tie the field together and it reminds us of the greatest country God ever invented where we play the greatest Sport He ever invented,  It's like how there's no jobs for pumping gas anymore.  We just take things away that are useful and good to streamline the process, which is probably why Driveline is personally snipping 14 year olds' UCLs so they have to get Tommy John surgery.
Anyway, I want to point out some hypocrisy from our friend Carlos.  He exerted his influence to make signings like his old Astros friend Christian Vazquez and also Dallas Keuchel.  But he's refusing to put his foot down and challenge cheap pohald on one little thing?  And don't come at me siting things like "The Ballys's Situation" because that's a load of hogwash.  If Derek and Thad "the smartest guys in the room" couldn't see this whole thing come crashing down then why are they paid for?  But of course the whole Ballys's situation blew up in everyone's faces and now we have half the screen taken up by bally betting lines (there a gambling company like the Bellagio).  But of course you can gamble during the baseball game from your smart TV but Pete Rose, an upstanding public figure, bet on some games that he had control over and made in-game decisions based on whether or not he bet on that game and now he can't get into the Hall of Fame?  What a joke.
Speaking of fairness and equality, [Hi, this is Greggory's wife, Earnestine.  I have been editting this post and fixing type-os for Greggory, but I'm making the executive decisions to omit this paragraph.  While his head was in the right place, Greggory's calls to rename singles to "gentleman singles" and walks to "lady singles" in an effort to promote gender equality probably didn't come off in the right way.]
And so that brings me to my next point.  Carlos Correa needs to also reconsider the money he's making.  Instead of trading a team legend like all-American boy Max Kepler (who I would let date my daughter) to shave salary, maybe Carlos could consider a paycut.  Based on Fan Graphs WAR he was only worth about 15 million dollars which is a kings ransom for Buxton but okay for Correa, so maybe he should except the paycut down to 15 million.  IF he's as committed to winning as he said then maybe he's willing to do so.  It's what leaders do.  Or maybe he could restructure his contract a la Kurt Cousins.
I once had a offer to double my salary and jump over to the meat packing plant but I know the value of loyalty and look at me now I'm the floor supervisor.  So that's what's got this on my mind like a Sheboygan sausage, which reminds me whatever happened to the Hormel W***** Winner Row?  I never got one but I always wanted a free DomeDog.
This winter, if Carlos Correa wants to prove that he has earned the title of AGM, well then it's time to start putting the money where his mouth is.  It's just sad to watch this childrens' game become a big money grab for everyone involved.  Sure, back in the day you had your Chick Gandils and Billy Mahargs, but they were the exception not the rules.  Owners used to be willing to spend on their teams.  Remember the time that Tommy Lasorda beat up the San Diego Chicken?  But the game we used to love is now dominated by launch velocity and exit angle and seam shifted wake and they don't give away physical ticket stubs either.  I can only add it to my Apple Wallet which is the only billfold you can't put in your back pocket or else it will break.
Everything is just too streamlined and money focused these days which is probably why downtowns don't decorate for Christmas anymore.  I miss seeing wreaths and tinsel and statues of Santa now the only place I can go to get that ambiance is the hellhole that is Duluth, MN.  But even Duluth makes they're downtown look like that all year.  It's like they waited for Bing Crosby's song Winter Wonderland to hit the public domain then made a town around it.  just another sign of the corporatization of middle America.  Speaking of winters in Minnesota why didn't they build a roof on Target Field? Probably never expected to have a playoff game in October which is why cheap pohlad only invests enough to pretend to compete like signing Carlos Correa when they could have signed 42 minimum-salary players for the same money.  And don't even start with me about how having a roof on Target Field would mean fans can't see the Minnesota skyline because let me tell you about downtown Minnesota. Ever since [Earnestine again; we are going to skip this part].
Which brings me to my final point and thesis.  I think that the Twins rolled out the red carpet for Correa and he didn't deserve it.  Beyond the salary, he also got "Star Wars Night" instituted and I'm here to say that he's not even a real nerd because Kylo Ren and the Sequel Series are NOT cannon.  I consider myself more of a Trekkie myself they really have some good messages about inclusivity unlike Star Wars which is all about space wizards for children committing terrorism against the state.  But Correa has probably never even read Asimov or knows the rules to robots.
So the Twins did all that work to bring him in and the fans have nothing to show for it.  Just another Hershel Walker trade and Parise and Suter.  When will he earn his salary and demand cheap pohlad invest in this team?  Probably never.  Instead they'll probably trade all there good players for prospects who will just be traded again once there good.  And speaking of good I have one last thought.  I really miss seeing Mary Tyler Moore on the tube. She was a real fox and they don't make women like that [except for my loving wife Earnestine].  It's just frustrating that people these days don't value the same things anymore.  It says a lot about the state of our country, if you ask me.

Dillon Gee was the 2017 version of what Dallas Keuchel did for the Twins in 2023. In fact, he was probably a little bit better. While he didn’t have quite the same name value, Gee was still a  veteran in his 30’s who provided value as an innings eater late in the season after impressing at Triple-A on a minor league deal.
Gee had a solid 3.91 ERA over 103 starts with the Mets from 2010-14, but he struggled out of the gate in 2015 before getting buried by a crop of young Mets starters. He sat there and watched as New York reached the World Series in 2015, and then he began to bounce around the league a bit.
Minnesota signed him to a minor league deal on June 22, 2017. Triple-A Rochester seemed almost too easy for Gee. He made five starts there, allowing zero runs in three of them. The Twins called him up in early August, and he jumped into a hybrid pitching role. Whatever they needed that day, Gee would take on that challenge. Starting pitcher, close games, blowouts, short relief, long relief, save situations, entering a clean inning or with runners on base. Gee did it all for the Twins.
Gee made three starts and was called on for 11 relief appearances during his two months in Minnesota, posting a 3.22 ERA over 36.1 innings. He went 3-2 with a save and a hold. This helped Minnesota earn the second AL wild card spot, getting them to the postseason for the first time since 2010.
He signed with the Chunichi Dragons of the NBP in the off-season, posting a 4.00 ERA during his one season in Japan. Gee then retired after the 2018 season.
 

It’s a frustrating situation. As we formulate our own opinions about what the Twins should do about the Byron Buxton conundrum, it’s important to understand all of the information we have.
Whether you hope to provide an opinion on how his recovery should be handled, whether he’ll play center field in 2024 if ever again, or if he should retire, we need to keep in mind the facts about Buxton’s knee that we personally know. Here they are:

The Minnesota Twins go into the offseason with an excellent combination of top prospects and serious depth throughout the organization. With plenty of young players putting up nice seasons, a recent end-of-the-year update to the Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects list shows real movement.
For the Twins organization, prospect graduations took place this year in the form of rookies like Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, and Louie Varland. It wasn’t just the guys that made it to the big leagues where substantial change was experienced. With a mid-October update to the Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects, it’s clear there are a few names that jump off the page.
As Minnesota looks to find ways to supplement the major league roster for Rocco Baldelli this offseason, utilizing prospect capital could be a plan for Derek Falvey. The organization could see a change in payroll realities on the heels of a new television outcome, and trades may be a more cost-effective way to add than the free agent market. Beyond that, we saw what rookies can look like as contributors in 2023, and identifying who creates the next wave is a must.
Here are some notable names that saw their stock rise in 2023:
1. Walker Jenkins
Taking over the top spot from Brooks Lee, Jenkins went from the draft to pro ball and didn’t skip a beat. He blitzed through rookie ball and contributed at Single-A for Fort Myers. He probably could have handled High-A and helped with the Cedar Rapids Kernels Midwest League title. Jenkins is already preparing for 2024, and while he will be less than 12 months removed from high school, betting against a meteoric rise doesn’t seem like a good proposition. He’s probably not making it to The Show in the upcoming season, but getting to Minnesota, specifically St. Paul, would be an incredible outcome.
11. Kala'i Rosario
Drafted in the fifth round of the 2020 MLB Draft, the performance of Rosario (and Marco Raya) has helped to withstand the blow of missing on Aaron Sabato. Rosario had an .832 OPS as a 20-year-old at High-A Cedar Rapids, and his 21 homers indicate that he has come into his power. The strikeouts are still substantial, so reigning that in as he develops is a must, but there’s a legitimate power hitter here. Minnesota sent Rosario to the Arizona Fall League this year, and he’s hit five homers in his first 15 games. Continued development is needed for the Hawaii native, but he’s still young, and seeing what his season looks like at Double-A should be fun.
15. Cory Lewis
It’s easy to call Lewis’ season the best among the pitchers on the farm, given he won both the Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Year award and the same designation from Minnesota themselves. He was a 9th round pick that immediately made noise, and while he throws a knuckleball, he’s not a traditional knuckleballer. Lewis was an integral part of the Kernels championship run, and after posting solid numbers with Fort Myers, he got better when he went up a level. Lewis recently turned 23-years-old and should begin the year at Double-A. That would put him in play as a potential late-season option for a major league debut should things go well. Lewis doesn’t have the ceiling of Raya, but he could elevate to David Festa prospect status with Minnesota by sometime in 2024.
Here are a couple of names that saw their stock fall in 2023:
13. Connor Prielipp
The second-round pick in 2022 was coming off an injury when selected and hadn’t pitched since 2021 for Alabama. Minnesota took the time to get him back healthy, but it resulted in just 6 2/3 innings before going back under the knife. There’s no question that Prielipp has the skills to be an ace pitcher, but his inability to stay healthy has been problematic for years. He hasn’t done anything statistically to account for his fall, but being unavailable while others pass him by has dropped him out of the Twins top 10.
14. Yasser Mercedes
Mercedes came stateside in 2023 and saw a substantial dip in production. He was just 18 years old but dropped over .300 points in OPS while playing in just 25 games. His Dominican Summer League numbers still reflect his abilities, but it’s a reminder that international youth can be challenging to project. The hope would be that Mercedes can remain healthy in 2024 and spend a significant portion of the season playing for Fort Myers. He’s a speed and power threat who already has a good idea of the strike zone. The athleticism in the outfield plays, and that combination is an exciting one to dream about.
17. Simeon Woods Richardson
Acquired as the second piece in the Jose Berrios trade alongside Austin Martin, it was more of a learning year for the former top-100 prospect. The success from 2022 evaporated, and his one major league outing went terribly. Woods Richardson threw a career-high amount of innings, but he looked ineffective for most of them. There was a positive trend at the end of the season, but the gaudy walk rate continued to hold him back. This offseason is an important one for the former Blue Jays prospect, and ensuring he’s committed to training and focused on taking a step forward will show up in 2024.
What prospects are you most excited about in the season ahead? Is there a name or two you might be worried about?

We've all been there before, battling against a Pollyanna Twins fan who just doesn't get it! The guy is a bum! As they obstinately prattle on citing reason or having watched an MLB game before, the rage grows inside of you until you remember your trump card: He's just another Miguel Sano.
For your reference, I've compiled a list of 2023 Twins hitters and why they're just another Miguel Sano. If you ever meet someone who just won't listen to a baseball genius like yourself, you'll always have this argument.
Christian Vazquez: Overpaid albatross of a contract the Twins will never win paying him 10 million a year! Just another Miguel Sano!
Carlos Correa: OVERPAID! Rod in his leg! Big arm but nothing else! Just another Miguel Sano!
Byron Buxton: Always hurt! Strikes out too much! I thought I was promised him and Sano were going to lead this team to multiple World Series whatever happened to that! Just another Miguel Sano!
Max Kepler: Had a pop-up year in 2019 and has done NOTHING since! Just another Miguel Sano!
Jorge Polanco: Another bust who only made one All Star team! I was promised 12 more! Just another Miguel Sano!
Jordan Luplow: Was on waivers just like Sano should have been! Just another Miguel Sano!
Ryan Jeffers: Big lumbering oaf who strikes out too much! Just another Miguel Sano!
Michael A. Taylor: Runs into one once in a while but everything else is a strikeout! Just another Miguel Sano!
Matt Wallner: Big arm one-trick-pony who strikes out looking too much! Just another Miguel Sano!
Willi Castro: Swings at everything! No plate discipline! Just another Miguel Sano!
Edouard Julien: A butcher in the field and takes too many strikes! Goes up looking to walk! Just another Miguel Sano!
Jose Miranda: Bad third baseman who swings at everything! Just another Miguel Sano!
Trevor Larnach: Too many strikeouts! Just another Miguel Sano!
Kyle Garlick: Supposed to hit righties but doesn't! Just another Miguel Sano!
Donovan Solano: A butcher at third base! Just another Miguel Sano!
Gilberto Celestino: Saw him a couple years ago but not sure where he is now! Just another Miguel Sano!
Kyle Farmer: Actually no I like him he works really hard he plays the game the right way and isn't afraid to get dirty I'd let him date my daughter.
Nick Gordon: Bust who used to be a shortstop! Just another Miguel Sano!
Andrew Stevenson: Killed the ball in the minors but can't hit MLB pitching! Just another Miguel Sano!
Alex Kirilloff: Made an error at first base! Always injured! Never lived up to the hype! Just another Miguel Sano!
Royce, Lewis,: Third baseman who's always hurt! Gets away with it because he's overhyped! Just another Miguel Sano!
Joey Gallo: *enters cardiac arrest*

Thanks, folks. 
A few weeks ago, I wrote a blog inviting feedback for some paint schemes for the wall in a room that has transitioned from our youngest son's bedroom to our office. Alas, he got married and moved to North Carolina -- we like the married part, just wish he didn't live so far from northern Indiana. That post is here: https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/23701-help-design-my-man-cave/ 
The goal was to combine a Fathead with some shelving to create a space to display the set of Tony Oliva baseball cards I've gathered, along with some others. I invited feedback to the following ideas: 
 
And the one I chose was...
No. 6. 
So, next up was using a friend's table saw to rip some MDF board into 5/8" x 5/8" strips, followed by cutting a quarter-inch angled groove to hold the cards. Then Mrs. IT took over, handling the priming and painting. Finally, my brother-in-law, much more adept at such projects than me, helped me stick the Fathead and place and mount the strips. 
Here's what I got: 

 
I'm pretty pleased. Mrs. IT needs to do a little touch-up painting, touching up the screw holes and a few more spots. What you see here are a complete set of Topps, Kelloggs and Hostess Oliva cards on the left, plus a couple extra odds and ends. On the upper right are my Killebrew cards, with Carews underneath. Neither of those are complete.
Eventually, I'll tighten them up so I can add some other favorites from over the years -- Hrbek, Puckett, Gaetti, etc. Probably need to get a Wynegar and some others. It may not take long for Lewis to make an appearance on the IT Wall of Fame. And depending on how full I want to make the space, I may also include a few non-Twin favorites and/or legends from over the years, namely Brock, Aaron, Clemente, etc. I don't have any that are particular valuable (and none graded), but on the wall will at least bring more enjoyment than in boxes under the bed. The total space is about 84 inches by 40 inches.
Thanks to @Cornholio, @Rod Carews Birthday, @Wyotwinsfan, @davidborton, @DocBauer, @gil4, @nclahammer, @Original_JB, @dcswede, @Khaddie and @Puckett34 for great insights and suggestions.
I was originally thinking I'd go with No. 8, but after coming up with a number of mockups, I was starting to lean toward No. 6 by the time I posted. So to get a couple early affirmations of that option helped firm up that decision. Some other comments:
There were some good suggestions that would have given it a much more professional feel (and would have been beyond my capability or cost more than I was prepared to spend. A couple folks cautioned about covering up too much of the Fathead. With that encouragement, I did move the strips out a bit. They end up overlapping by about three inches, rather than the six inches I originally planned. I think that was an improvement, so thanks for those suggestions. If I was to do anything different with the layout, I'd give each row another quarter to half inch of space (starting at the bottom) to push the top row up to have even less overlap with the letters.  A few people had ideas for some additions, suggesting some autographed photos, Homer Hankies, etc. (And speaking of, I need to track down one of this year's.) I do plan some of those things with the next steps. The exterior wall of the room has about 43 inches on each side of a window, so I'm thinking of putting in a relatively high shelf for the four Wheaties/Kelloggs boxes (still full) from 1987 and 1991. I may do a second shelf with some autographed balls, but I really don't have any significant ones. I do have some other things, however, such as a Rod Carew RC Cola can and an Oliva-signed cap, etc. I'm only a few years from retirement, so I'll need to consider where to go with two jerseys. I'm perhaps the only person on TD with a game-used Travis Miller jersey. I never thought I'd buy a gamer of anyone, but when you're in the team store and see one with your last name on it, it's tough to resist. My congregation gifted me another jersey when transitioned from pastoring there to another ministry opportunity. In total, I have another 10 or so linear feet of wall space on this half the room to use for such things. Mrs. IT gets the other side of the room. So again, thanks. If anyone heads through northern Indiana on the toll road and wants to stop off for a visit, I'd be glad to show it in person! 😃
 

And while I'm at it, I do have another spot in the house that folks might find interesting. I've been fortunate enough to have been able to combine some work-related travel with vacations and have been to all 30 current stadiums (plus a dozen or so that have been closed)*. I spent some time to create some collages from photos I've taken along the way (plus a handful from the Web of stadiums that I went to before I started taking pictures). Here's what we have in our entry hallway. Each frame is a division, with the teams in alphabetical order from top to bottom.
 
 
*Lest you think that's impressive, what's more impressive is the amazing Mrs. IT. She's been to 24, even though she's not a baseball fan. When someone asked her about it, her response, "I don't like baseball, but I like some people who like baseball." 
 
 

Andy MacPhail, a former Twins GM who helped construct the 87 and 91 World Series Teams once said his goal was to promote 2-3 players per season up to the majors to fill roles on the team.  A good farm system can do that.  So, with that in mind let’s review the previous drafts in the Falvey era, not to grade them but to see how Falvey. Levine and company are doing in developing 2-3 starters/ regulars (or really players who can stay on the roster all year including bench and relievers) a year. Below the starters I will include several who at least played a role of some kind and list if anyone else still has a chance to make it to the show. Let me know if I forget someone.  I am not the draft hound as others here.  
2017: was their first draft year and the players who are starters include:
 3B Royce Lewis OF/DH Brent Rooker SP Bailey Ober And that is pretty much it.  There are others who may still make it up for a role including Blaine Enlow, Mark Contreras, Calvin Faucher is with the Rays, and maybe Andrew Bechtold
This draft is a success as Ober and Lewis are a big part of the team now and moving forward.
2018: has many potential role players or players who can carve out niches but there are some who start for the Twins and others who contribute.
 C Ryan Jeffers OF Trevor Larnarch RP Cole Sands RP Josh Winder RP Kody Funderburk The jury is still out on Larnarch.  Cole Sands and Josh Winder are likely to be 7th and 8th man on relief pitching with the potential to get better.  Kody Funderburk is just getting started but is off to a nice start and looks promising.  In terms of others who may make it up at some point include DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Chris Williams, Austin Schulfer
This draft needs a little more time to be judged.  Jeffers is a starter and Larnarch should be.  If Kody Funderburk becomes a solid reliever and we get some innings 20-50 from Winder and Sands in the pen in each of the next 2 seasons I would rate this draft as solid. 
2019: we had the misfortune of drafting Keoni Cavaco in the first round which set the draft performance back quite a bit.  But it looks like we still did well in this draft.
 Matt Wallner (also drafted by the Twins in 32nd round in 2016) Spencer Steer Eduouard Julien Louie Varland Inn addition to these guys Casey Legumina who we trade to the Reds for Farmer, Sawyer Gibson-Long who we traded to Detroit for Fulmer just made his major league debut and Brent Headrick pitched over 20 innings up here this season and is on the shuttle with Josh Winder and Cole Sands as the 7th and 8th relievers Alex Isola is a solid hitting C prospect in AA and Matt Canterino is a top pitching prospect who is injured. 
I gotta say this was a great draft for them. 
2020: was a lost season and while we only drafted 5 players, we do have 3 prospects from this draft.
Alerick Soularie in AA, Kala’I Rosario in A+, and Marco Raya. 
I would rate this draft a success if one player makes it up and is a starter.  The best bet is Raya if he can stay healthy. 
2021: We traded our first 4 picks from the 2021 draft to be more competitive last year.  Petty for Sonny Gray, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Steve Hajjar were included in the trade for Mahle, and Cade Povich was included in the trade for Lopez from Baltimore. 
Festa is in AAA and is getting close to an opportunity at some point next season.  Christina Strand is now up with Cincinnati, Povich was in AA with a high strikeout rate.  Jaylin Nolin is a top prospect and Noah Miller is already a major league ready defensive specialist if he can learn to hit at all so he can at least be a solid bench player. 
I would say there are lots of depth players in this draft outside of Encarnacion-Strand if we get a few of them to contribute this can be a good draft.
2022: is too early to grade as is 2023 but there are many prospects from the 2022 draft who did well in their first full minor league season including Brooks Lee who made it to AAA and Tanner Schobel in AA. And the Twins were voted as having one of the top three drafts in terms of talent acquired in the draft in 2023. 
Overall, the Twins have consistently done a good job of developing players for the major leagues under Falvey.  I think the surprise is that they have not drafted and developed very much pitching, but have drafted many good hitters, who they developed for the lineup or trade.  I do see many promising starting pitchers down in A and A+ ball so it will be fun to see how that translates as they pitch at more advanced levels next year and so on.  I would rate the 2017 draft, 2019 draft, with 2022 and 2023 drafts looking to join them as the most successful and the 2018 draft is on the cusp.  2020 is an incomplete as COVID torpedoed the season.  The success of the 2021 draft will be determined by players no longer in the organization.  Do you feel like the Twins in the Falvey era are succeeding in drafting and developing players to contribute at the major leagues?

One of the Twins strengths this season has been its ability to pitch. Whether it's from the starting rotation or the bullpen, the staff has been fantastic this year. However, one prospect who was moving up and hoping to be a part of this staff, Matt Canterino, the Twins #9 ranked prospect by MLB.com is out for the year with Tommy John surgery. I recently caught up with him to find out how things are going in his recovery, where he's at in the rehab process and a more!
DC: how's the rehab going? Where are you at in the process?
MC: Rehab is going very well! I am regularly throwing bullpens twice per week, and I have just started touching 90 miles per hour again. The elbow has been recovering well, and the goal is to start throwing to hitters around the middle of September.
DC: What has the process been like this time for you compared to previous injuries?
MC: It’s different this time because there is more of a set structure for a return from surgery. In the past, when I’ve attempted rest and rehab for my lingering elbow issue, the limiting factor was always waiting for my elbow to feel healthy enough to throw. With surgery, it’s been more about dealing with the slow progression of a 13 month long recovery.
DC: When you first got hurt with this injury, what was the biggest hurdle for you?
MC: My biggest hurdle was figuring out if surgery was the right course of action for me. My UCL tear was not something that obviously needed surgery at the time of injury, but after multiple failed attempts to rest and rehab my forearm and elbow, it became clear that Tommy John Surgery was the best option.
DC: Has this injury and rehab been more mentally or physically tough/challenging for you?
MC: I would say the mental aspect of seeing an entire season go by without playing is the toughest part. I really wanted to contribute and help the Twins organization this year, but it just didn’t work out. I’ve gotten over that melancholy feeling a bit by really honing in on some of my development goals as a pitcher during my current build up. 
DC: How do you feel you're progressing as it relates to being fully healthy?
MC: I feel extremely confident in my ability to come back as a better pitcher than what I was pre-surgery.
DC: Where have you been able to rehab at?
MC: I’ve been rehabbing at the Twins Complex in Fort Myers since the start of Spring Training, and will continue there through the season.
DC: How has your family support assisted you in getting through this rehab and your previous ones as well?
MC: My loved ones are the best at helping me keep my head on straight through this process. There are always ups and downs when dealing with injury and rehab, so to have someone I can vocalize those situations to and trust their input on how to keep level-headed and optimistic is beyond important.
DC: Have you heard anything from the Twins recently and how often do you keep in contact with them?
MC: I am in contact with coaching staff everyday at the facility, and they do a great job of mapping out the rehab process for me. Everyone is optimistic about my progression thus far.
DC: How far removed from your surgery are you?
MC: My surgery date was August 24th of 2022, so I am just over 11 months out.
DC: Last question Matt, what is your off-season rehab going to look like and will it ramp up as you approach ST, and do you anticipate being full healthy for ST?
MC: The goal is to be built up and healthy for next Spring Training. My buildup through the end of the season is still subject to some change, but, for the most part, the hope is to have a regular off season this Winter and be fully primed for a healthy 2024.
Thanks to Matt for taking the time to catch up with me via Twitter. 
Follow me on Twitter @devlin_clark84

System overview:
A lot changes in half a season. Royce Lewis finally departed the prospect list nearly 6 (six!) years after the team drafted him first overall in 2017. Edouard Julien and Louie Varland also lost their prospect status, weakening the high-end of the list despite a recent influx of incredible talent. Speaking of which…
Walker Jenkins! The Twins actually did it; they eschewed their conservative desires and simply took the best player available at number 5: a sweet-swinging high-schooler who drew incredible reviews for his makeup. You could probably write a book with the superlative ink spilled about Jenkins over the past few days, but there's a good reason for that: he’s a stud. He immediately gives the team a fascinating, dynamic top three of Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and himself. He hasn’t even been signed yet, so let’s not get carried away, but it’s certainly an exciting time for the Twins system.
Which, I think, is the strongest it’s been in a few years. The team is now undeniably at the heart of the pitching movement, churning out and improving arms at a breakneck pace, making their pitching prospects that much more exciting. There are about four or five legitimately impressive arms in the system drafted in 2022, and with about 60 pitchers taken in this draft, a few more are certainly on their way. It’s madness. But it’s a good kind of madness. 
I’ve done something different with this list. As you’ll see, batters and pitchers are separated—something I’ve always felt should be done given the differences between the two. This is especially true these days, as any arm with one or two interesting characteristics is millimeters away from breaking out; hitters don’t currently enjoy such an advantage. Here’s the list:
Hitters:
Brooks Lee, 22, 5’11” / 205 - SS Now that Royce Lewis is finally no longer a prospect (for the first time since 2017!), Brooks Lee takes over as the best prospect in Minnesota’s system. There’s a lot to like in his tools; his defense isn’t consistently excellent at shortstop—he’s missing the kind of raw athletic force that, say, Carlos Correa possesses—but he’s nimble enough to make plenty of wow plays and could stick at the position in the majors. If not, he’ll be fine at third or second. The Twins appear dead-set on getting him reps here, as he’s barely started anywhere else in 2023. 
Offensively, he’ll likely hit, but his bat isn’t bulletproof. He doesn’t own any one overwhelming attribute, but he does most things pretty well and should never embarrass himself with poor swing decisions. Overall, he looks a lot like Marcus Semien with a little less pop—but I will warn that the lack of consistent game power is a concern. Really, though, most knocks feel like extreme nit-picking for a 22-year-old holding his own at AA in his first full year in organized ball. He’ll be fine and should join the Twins sometime in 2024.
Emmanuel Rodriguez, 20, 5’10” / 210 - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez is a lesson in two parts: one, that monthly stat-worrying over prospects is often foolish; and slack should be handed to players returning from major surgery. Rodriguez spent April and May striking out at Gallo-ian rates before deflating his whiffs to palatable levels; he’s punched out at a 25.5% clip since June started. And while that cutoff is as arbitrary as any, I think it’s clear that Rodriguez is far more comfortable at the plate these days than when the season started.
He still has laughable power as his swing-as-hard-as-humanly-possible approach yields monster homers and titanic bullets shot all around the field, offering welts to fielders who stand in their way. The whiffs will probably always be present, though, as he has a habit of running deep counts. If he continues to evolve, he could be the toolsy stud center fielder of the future for the Twins. The bust potential is high, though.
Walker Jenkins, 18, 6’3” / 190 - OF Surprise! After blowing smoke around Jacob Gonzalez for a few months, the Twins took the sane route and drafted an excellent high school prospect. I’ll repeat the common refrain here; Jenkins could have gone 1st in any normal draft, and the Twins are deeply fortunate to have such an impact talent in their farm system.
It’s a little silly trying to rank recently-selected players alongside pros with hundreds of at-bats under their belt, but you have to put the guy somewhere, and I thought right behind Emmanuel Rodriguez was the best choice. I don’t really have a good reason for this choice; he can move up quickly with early success.
-------------------------
Matt Wallner, 25, 6’5” / 220 - OF The man who just cannot find a roster spot. Matt Wallner is the antithesis of Max Kepler: he’s going to swing hard, clobber a lot of baseballs, and play bumbling, clumsy defense in right field. We’ve seen his style of play work at times, as apparent by his little MLB playing time this year, but his extreme contact deficiency will spell ugly hitting streaks, and I worry what major-league pitchers are going to do to him once they become comfortable. Still, he rakes. His max exit velocity is already elite, and it’s not impossible to imagine an Austin Riley-like metamorphosis from hulking slugger to well-rounded nuclear offensive force.
Defensively, Wallner is going to cost the Twins runs. He may earn some back with his arm—a true bazooka that will vex greedy baserunners, or just keep them stationary in fear—but the dropoff from Kepler to Wallner will be obvious. Minnesota’s favor towards flyball pitchers, and their insistence on playing Kepler and Gallo may keep him hidden on the periphery longer than most have the stomach for.
Tanner Schobel, 22, 5’9” / 170 - 2B/3B Tanner Schobel is something of a throwback to the 2000s Twins: a slick do-it-all infielder with above-average speed and a good chance at becoming a roughly 2 WAR player for more years than you realize. He’s even added more ISO (in a pitcher’s league!) as his extended play with Cedar Rapids has been powerful. The thump may not be a mirage; Schobel slugged .689 his sophomore season at Virginia Tech. He loads up like Eugenio Saurez, allowing the ball to travel a little further than most before the full power of his torque releases, usually in a punishing manner (to the ball).
Defensively, Schobel has mostly split time between second and third—his two most natural positions. He could potentially play shortstop, but that position has seen a lot of Noah Miller and Jose Salas, making it difficult for Schobel to earn playing time there. Overall, Schobel fits a likeable infielder mold that many good-to-great players have thrived in.
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Yasser Mercedes, 18, 6’2” / 175 - OF An expensive international signing from a few years ago, Yasser Mercedes showcased a dynamic offensive profile in 2022 before completely falling off a cliff in his first taste of stateside ball. Was he a victim of untrustworthy DSL stats? Is this a fluke? It’s far too early to tell; for now he’ll stay stagnant in my prospect list. 
Austin Martin, 24, 6’0” / 185 - SS/OF Oh what a fall for Austin Martin. You know the story by now: his flaming college performance capitulated immediately after the Blue Jays drafted him, and now the Twins are looking to get him back in the groove. 2022 was almost a complete loss, but Martin flashed life in September, and had a respectable enough AFL to soften his fall from grace.
Frustratingly, an injury knocked Martin out of commission until a few days ago, when he finally popped back up on the Saints’ roster. A strong showing could earn him a quick promotion, as Royce Lewis is currently on the mend well until August; José Miranda took his place but could be shuffled if his bat doesn’t turn around. Hopefully Martin finds the minimum power needed to become a quality major-league bat, because his potential is of a classic two-hole batter, slashing hits across the field while stealing at whim. 
Luke Keaschall, 20, 6’1” / 190 - INF The Twins selected Luke Keaschall—an infielder out of Arizona State—with their second-round pick in 2023. Plenty of excellent alumnus call that college home, and Keaschall could join them soon, as he absolutely smoked PAC-12 pitching with a .353/.443/.725 slashline. We’ll understand Keaschall more as a prospect in time, so consider this ranking very loose; he could move up or down easily. 
Noah Miller, 20, 5’11” / 190 - SS Alright, I was probably wrong about Noah Miller. I grasped tightly onto his excellent strikeout-to-walk rate in 2022, but now that has evaporated, leaving a powerless, on-base-less profile only buoyed by his excellent shortstop defense. He added a tinge of power in 2023, upping his ISO almost .030 points up to .094, but that hasn’t been enough to save his hitting, and infielders who hit like this need a legendary glove to stick around in MLB for any serious period of time. 
Noah Cardenas, 23, 5’11” / 195 - C/1B I still cannot fathom why Noah Cardenas is not more well-received as a prospect. He’s hitting for a 129 wRC+ with the Kernels—as a catcher, mind you—after crushing A ball with similar vigor. His pop is more in doubles than homers, but he can take a walk like no one’s business, and that kind of plate control should translate well as he progresses up through the minors.
The bugaboo: his defense. The Twins know this, and often spell time at 1st and DH (although Andrew Cossetti’s presence feeds into this decision as well). We don’t have public catching defensive metrics, but Eric Longenhagen rated him a 30-grade defender, and I’m willing to believe in his assessment. Still, the Twins were able to turn Mitch Garver into a workable defensive catcher—and Ryan Jeffers wasn’t a lock to stay at catcher either—so it’s very possible that Cardenas follows those two and blossoms into an everyday player. 
Danny De Andrade, 19, 5’11” / 190 - SS We’re finally seeing Danny De Andrade playing in full-season ball and the results have been… whelming. He’s walked a fair amount, but the power is merely ok, and he’s probably not going to play shortstop long-term. Still, this is a 19-year-old; picking on him too much seems like an unwise decision. He should rise up this list further with time. 
Jose Salas, 20, 6’0” / 191 - INF At this point, it’s unclear what Jose Salas does well. He’s in the middle of a dreadful repetition of A+ ball in which his slashline is so porous that I don’t even want to type it out. You don’t need to look it up; it’s bad. Normally this kind of performance would take a player completely off the list, but prospect evaluators swore he was around a 45 FV player coming into the year, and I’ll offer some slack in this regard. It won’t last long unless something changes quickly. 
Kala’i Rosario, 21, 6’0” / 205 - OF It’s been an impressive rebound for Kala’i Rosario, who wandered the prospect desert after being selected in the 2020 draft. Once a pure power threat, Rosario has improved in each stat of his triple slash-line, giving him a mean offensive profile that Midwest pitchers haven’t figured out yet. He even sliced a few points off his strikeout rate. 
Yet the hit tool remains shaky. There are major leaguers who can make it work with a swing-hard-and-maybe-something-good-will-happen approach, but it’s a wasteland of batters who pitchers figured out quickly; whether Rosario is any different will be seen shortly. He should see a promotion to AA soon, and his immense power could carry him to the majors. 
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Andrew Cossetti, 23, 5’10” / 215 - C/1B Andrew Cossetti mashed A-ball with a hilarious .330/.462/.607 slashline before the Twins showed mercy on poor Florida State League arms, sending the menace to Cedar Rapids. His offense has cooled, but he still settled into a firmly above-average performance—especially for a catcher holding a .262 BABIP. He often spends time at 1st also, perhaps signalling Minnesota’s thoughts on his ability to stick as a backstop, but the bat may be real, and that’s enough to make Cossetti an exciting name to watch. 
Jose Rodriguez, 18, 6’2” / 196 - OF Jose Rodriguez popped 13 homers in an impressive somehow-young-for-the-level DSL debut and is now hitting for a 93 wRC+ with the FCL Twins. Like Mercedes, the question regarding untrustworthy DSL numbers exists here, but I’ll give Rodriguez some benefit of the doubt considering his absurd youth and small sample of plate appearances at his new level. 
Yunior Severino, 23, 6’0” / 189 - 2B/3B This is now the third season in a row that Yunior Severino has mashed the ball; his profile still scares the crap out of me. He makes his bread with power and walks, but the walks have dropped off since he reached AA, and we’re left with a high ISO/high BABIP batting line that, to me, seems unsustainable outside the Texas League. Maybe that’s unfair, but there’s also probably a reason the team has been slow to send him to AAA. 
DaShawn Kiersey Jr., 26, 6’0” / 195 - OF Is this a toolsy outfielder finally breaking out, or an old-for-the-level batter picking on pitchers who don’t know any better? Who knows—and the truth probably lies outside my black-and-white dichotomy—but, there’s no way to say it any other way: DaShawn Kiersey Jr. is raking.
His season under-the-hood looks largely the same as 2022, save for a nearly .040 point bump in ISO, but Kiersey Jr. has already clobbered nine homers; it took him three minor league seasons after being drafted to hit his first longball. Throw in game-altering stolen base potential, and Kiersey Jr. is a compelling late-breakout outfielder who’ll need to claw past some other uber-talented players if he ever sees the majors. He’s blistered the ball since June started, turning in a .347/.407/.579 slash with seven steals.
Ben Ross, 22, 6’0” / 180 - INF If you want a guy who can rake across the field, Ben Ross is your guy. He’s bopped 13 homers in a notorious pitchers league, all while playing at 1st base, shortstop, 3rd base, left field, center field, and right field (he played second last year, but not this year). Whether he’s adept at all these positions or merely a warm body capable of moonlighting at them will be seen, but the profile is certainly fascinating. He could probably catch if need be. 
Misael Urbina, 21, 5’10” / 190 - OF Misael Urbina is continuing his every-other-year pattern of not hitting. It appeared he bounced back nicely after a truly awful 2021 season, but not one number of his A+ slashline starts with a “.3” and, yeah, that’s not gonna play. The talent is still evident, but smooth sailing it has not been, and I worry that Urbina is not going to live up to the promise he showed in 2019.
Aaron Sabato, 24, 6’2” / 230 - 1B It’s been a molasses-slow movement through the system for the 2020 1st-round selection. He hasn’t lived up to the hype he saw out of college, but—somehow—he’s dutifully earned promotions and usually turns in above-average performances after becoming acclimated to his competition. That’s not what you want from a 1st-round pick, but there’s still a very real chance Sabato can contribute to the major-league team.
Pitchers:
Marco Raya, 20, 6’0” / 170 - RHP The recently promoted Marco Raya represents Minnesota’s best shot at a top-of-the-rotation arm. That isn’t to say that he’s a lock to dominate—and, indeed, undervalued arms like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have proven that the best MLB pitchers aren’t always the well-known guys—but, if anyone here is a betting man, Raya would be the favored horse. He attacks batters with an ideal vertical fastball and a pair of devastating breaking balls, known to bring hitters to their knees if they swing improperly.
Despite being over three years younger than the average competition at A+ ball, Raya smoked hitters, punching out nearly 30% of batters faced while chopping two percentage points off his walk rate from last year. It’s difficult to parse whether this was Raya just being plain better than these hitters, as the Twins capped his innings total in his starts at four, but the numbers are hard to ignore, and the team may be off-setting their conservatism with an aggressive promotion to the Wind Surge. The Texas League is known for hitting; good luck to Raya with his new competition. 
David Festa, 23, 6’6” / 185 - RHP There’s a strong argument for David Festa as the better pitching prospect, and, in the end, Raya won by a sliver. This is no knock on Festa; the Seton Hall product followed a now well-paved road set by the Falvey Twins, as he almost immediately enjoyed and sustained a four-tick velocity bump. The strikeouts soon came. 
With effective offerings in his sharp slider and surprisingly effective changeup (surprising only in that every pitching prospect has a “developing” cambio), Festa has impressive peripherals at AA, even if the walks have trended up with subsequent promotions. He was recently added to the Futures Game roster, and could see time with the Twins in 2024 if the current glut of 40-man options prove insufficient. 
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Connor Prielipp, 22, 6’2” / 210 - LHP Almost a year after the Twins selected him, Connor Prielipp remains a mystery. He made exactly one start for the Kernels before hitting the IL, shuttled off to the grand nothingness that is the Twins’ prospect injury list, only evident through occasional tweets and whispers. The team finally ended his season, giving us 1 (one) start and no new knowledge on what Prielipp could become.
It’s frustrating given Prielipp’s potentially dominant slider; a healthy Prielipp could easily be one of the best prospects in Minnesota’s system, but he can now only claim a combined 34 ⅔ innings between his time at Alabama and in pro ball. What will eventually become of the 22-year-old is just as unclear as when the Twins drafted him in 2022. 
Charlee Soto, 17, 6’5” / 197 - RHP If you built a pitcher in a lab, this is what he would look like—6 foot 5 inches with a big fastball and yeah, you get the idea. Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs described his heater as sink-oriented, which does differentiate him from your typical ride/carry guy so coveted by MLB teams these days.
Like Walker, ranking Soto is a fool’s errand. He’s even younger than your typical high schooler at 17, and I doubt we’ll understand Soto more as a prospect for at least a few years.
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Simeon Woods Richardson, 22, 6’3” / 210 - RHP Disastrous. Following a minor stabilizing season at AA and AAA last year, Simeon Woods Richardson is imploding in 2023. His K-BB% is 3.7%, far far far below the ground level acceptable for even a below-average major-league arm. 
This is nothing like the pitcher the Twins expected to receive in 2021—and he’s so far removed from his performance at any part of his minor league career that an injury is the only real explanation for his troubles. Minnesota pulled this same thing with Jordan Balazovic in 2022, allowing him to take drastic lumps while recovering from an injury, but at least Balazovic still had the Ks; Woods Richardson has nothing. With other arms clearly ahead of him in the depth chart, Woods Richardson’s path to the majors appears blocked, or at least heavily guarded.
Jordan Balazovic, 24, 6’5” / 215 - RHP I think Jordan Balazvoic has been ranked differently in each list I’ve made, and I don’t think that’s a good thing. He has rebounded nicely from his putrid 2022 season, and parlayed a strikeout/walk oriented AAA performance into… a BABIP-aided 1.80 ERA over 10 major-league innings. No, I don’t get it either.
There’s legitimate upside, though, with Balazovic’s killer vertical fastball/curve approach that could transform him into the new Griffin Jax. That may be a disappointment from the height of his prospect days in 2018 and 2019, but Jax is a valuable piece on the Twins; hopefully Balazovic will be as well. 
Blayne Enlow, 24, 6’3” / 170 (doubtful, but it’s what Fangraphs says) - RHP Risen from prospect ashes like the phoenix of old, Blayne Enlow might actually be a major-league arm. After being DFA’d and left out to dry last year, Enlow remained a Twin, crushing AA while halving his walk rate and adding a few more strikeouts to the mix. The promotion to AAA came soon.
His time with the Saints hasn’t been as fruitful, but 17 ⅓ innings is a small sample, and I’m willing to bet on a future where Enlow can find an effective role in the majors. 
Brent Headrick, 25, 6’6” / 235 - LHP I still don’t really know what to make of Brent Headrick. He has a tremendous and a disastrous fastball, leading me to believe that he’s going to be a reliever long-term, not a starter. His height, odd arm action, and command should secure him a spot on the team in some capacity, but that fastball problem is dire, and it may not be easy to fix. Headrick gets a leg-up on other, similar pitchers because of his major-league readiness. 
Cory Lewis, 22, 6’5” / 220 - RHP One of Minnesota’s many interesting pitchers from the 2022 draft, Cory Lewis has been a buzzsaw. There’s nothing overwhelming about his profile, but he can command the hell out of his fastball and slider while occasionally tossing in a knuckleball, just for fun. 
Lewis’ ordinary draft stock, and his status as a developed college arm makes it difficult to decipher his undeniable dominance; I’ll keep him here for now—right in the middle of the pitcher melee that separates the best pitching prospects in the system from the rest of the herd. This is not a slight. Minnesota has proven wise in turning arms like Lewis into quality major leaguers, so this isn’t your normal piece of the scrap pile of young pitchers.
Andrew Morris, 21, 6’0” / 195 - RHP Andrew Morris hasn’t been as overwhelming as his 2022 draftee peers, but he owns a potential outlier offering, and that buoys his profile while making him a real prospect. The pitch? A carry-monster fastball that usually sits in the lower 90s but can scratch 95—something that Bryce Miller has proven can dominate by itself. Throw in a solid slider, and Morris could easily be yet another college breakout arm for the Twins. 
Zebby Matthews, 23, 6’5” / 225 - RHP Zebby Matthews tore up the Florida State League with Maddux-like dominance, creating an air of excitement around the Western Carolina University product, before a promotion to Cedar Rapids shot that down. His xFIP is still fine, but his strikeout rate plummeted. The rest of the season will tell us who the real Matthews is.
There’s still a lot to like in his profile; he throws six legitimate pitches with good control, and that alone could carry him to the majors. The cutter appears to be the critical offering.
C.J. Culpepper, 21, 6’3” / 193 - RHP You could basically copy/paste the previous sentiments regarding A-ball dominance. C.J. Culpepper—no relation to Daunte, trust me—earned the second-highest signing bonus of any California Baptist University player ever (name me the two MLB players from that college without looking it up and I’ll give you five dollars) and almost immediately crushed his competition with the Mighty Mussels. A promotion to Cedar Rapids cooled his stats (in only two starts), so, again, Culpepper’s prospect status is unclear.
Still, a 27.9 K% cannot be ignored, and Culpepper soon could rise further up this list with more impressive starts.
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Alejandro Hidalgo, 20, 6’1” / 160 - RHP I haven’t seen many pitchers like Alejandro Hidalgo. His command is either fine—with maybe a walk or two here or there—or it’s disastrous, completely wiping out his outing with four, five, six walks over a shockingly low inning total. When he’s on, he has a devastating fastball/changeup combo and looks lethal; when he’s not, duck. 
Ronny Henriquez, 23, 5’10” / 155 - RHP Entering the season as a dark-horse, hipster pick to carry important major-league frames, Ronny Henriquez has stumbled through a difficult season. An elbow injury was the first culprit, then he walked everyone and their mother at AAA, and a recent oblique strain knocked him out of commission for two weeks. He’s only allowed one run since returning, but the walks are still uncharacteristically overwhelming; he’ll need to fix that issue before he can rebound on this list. 
Matt Canterino, 25, 6’2” / 222 - RHP Matt Canterino has not thrown a competitive pitch in over a year. Given his injuries and missing innings, it would be a miracle for Canterino to become an effective starter; the bullpen is his likely future home. If shorter bursts can keep him healthy, he could dominate in that role. 
Kyle Jones, 23, 6’1” / 200 - RHP Yet another 2022 draft pitcher, Jones isn’t quite the strikeout artist seen in his peers, but he acquires groundballs at a hefty rate while keeping his whiffs and walks around league average. This looks like a vanilla, but safe profile that could earn him under-the-radar promotions to the system’s higher levels.
 

I just completed my 24th annual baseball road trip with my buddies Steve-O and TJ, this past weekend we caught a trio of games in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, home of the Minnesota Twins High Class A team the Kernels.   The Beloit Sky Carp won the first game we saw on Friday, June 23, 11-9.  Cedar Rapids then won the next two days by scores of 10-6 and 8-3.  Sky Carp, in case you are wondering, is a not-so-flattering moniker for Canadian geese.  I am by no means a baseball expert, but rather just an avid fan who loves to go to baseball games, watching and observing.   With my scorebook in hand, I make notes throughout the game of what I see happening on the field (and sometimes inthe stands.)   Here's a summary along with some thoughts and observations on how players on the Twins Daily Top 20 prospect list faired, along with some of the other Kernels "popping" in the minors.  
Current Twins Daily Top 20 prospects (after mid-May rankings)
#3 prospect - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez   Over the three games we saw...10ABs/2H/HR/RBI/4SO/4BB/SB - Rodriquez played CF the first two games and DH the final one.   Good athleticism in CF.  In the first game he showed excellent range getting to a ball in the LF/CF gap and then he non-chalantly flipped his glove for the catch and the ball glanced off his glove for a three-base error.  The next night was windy and with a rocket hit to CF he hustled back to the ball in time, but it hit off his glove for a triple (we thought it could have been an error, but then again it was windy.)  Showed some patience at the plate with 4 walks to go along with 4 strikeouts.  Has some of that "Wow" factor going for him with his swing (he's got "pop"), presence, and confidence.   I hope he can continue to mature and improve, he is the youngest player on the Cedar Rapids Kernel roster.
#6 prospect - P Marco Raya - 4th round pick in 2020 out of HS - He pitched the first game we saw on Friday and got off to a quick start, retiring 7 of the first 8 batters he faced.   Then an error (Rodriguez) and two unearned runs later, the Kernels were down 2-0 after three.  Raya got the first out in the 4th, but never finished the inning after loading up the bases on three consecutive singles.  His stat line was 3 1/3IP/4H/3ER/2K/BB.   In ten Class High-A starts, Raya is 0-1, 3.19 ERA, 35K/6BB in 31 IP.  The word I would use to describe Marco Raya is "efficient."  He started out the game dealing strikes and going after the hitters and was getting outs.  Then after giving up three consecutive singles to load the bases in the 4th, the Kernels made a call to the bullpen, which let the game get away in the middle frames (see Jaylin Nowlin below.)  Nothing "Wow" about his stuff like when I saw Brusdar Graterol pitch here, but Raya did exhibit good control and confidence.   They seem to be bringing Raya along slowly with 31 IP in ten starts.
#12 prospect - IF Jose Salas    Also acquired in the Luis Arraez trade - 7ABs/R/H/RBI/2B/2K/2BB/2HBP/1SB.  He played 2B two games and 3B once, with a slick glove, great range, with no errors.  On the season batting .166 with 61 Ks in 193 AB.  He is the second youngest player on the roster.  The glove is there, the bat is not (yet?)   Good versatility and speed.
#13 prospect - SS Noah Miller - 1st round pick 2021 out of HS - 9ABs/R/2H/2RBI/SB/5Ks.  Miller played two games at SS and was part of 3 double plays.  His glove is MLB ready IMO.  He gobbled up anything hit his way and was smooth as butter with his glove & throws, but has much work to do with the bat.  Miller is a switch hitter batting .208 (not sure of his splits.)   He had two RBI singles late in the Friday night game, otherwise he had tough at bats.  Out of the regulars playing offensively, Miller is the third youngest behind Rodriguez and Salas.  
Preseason Top 20 Twins Daily prospects
#18 prospect - IF Tanner Schobel (2nd round pick 2022 out of Virginia Tech as a draft eligible sophomore)  In two games batting leadoff and playing third base, 9AB/3R/3H/5RBI/2HR/K.  Batting .279 on the season with ten HRs and tied for the team lead with 46 RBI.  He's only 6 months older than Miller, but has got the bat and is a solid fielder.  I was surprised he dropped out of the Twins Daily Top 20 in the mid-May updated rankings, while Miller climbed one spot.  I can see him earning a promotion to Wichita before long.  Good stick & solid glove.  Very comfortable at the plate.
#20 prospect - OF Misael Urbina (signed as MLFA in 2108, just turned 21) - 13AB/2R/4H/5RBI/(2)2Bs/HR/3K.  Played two games in LF and one at DH.  Had 3 hits in Friday's game.  Adequate fielder batting .192 on the season.  I heard a lot about a high ceiling with him, nothing to write home about at this point (yet), hasn't taken off.  Still A LOT to prove.
Best of the rest
Jorel Ortega IF - 6th round pick 2022 (signed out of Tennessee after his junior year) - recently promoted to Cedar Rapids.  12AB/5R/5H/2B/HR/BB.  Played 1B,2B, and DH in the 3 games we watched.  He catches your attention when playing.  Batting .400 in 5 games since his promotion from Ft. Myers.  I like his game, he hustles and does things positively that you notice.
Kala'i Rosario OF - 5th round pick 2020 - Yay, another Rosario in the Twins organization!   Played RF for 2 games.  7AB/5R/3H/2RBI/2B/HR/2K/3BB.  Drafted out of high school in Hawaii, currently leads the Kernels in doubles (14), batting average (.279), and tied for HR lead with 12.  41 BBs to go along with 71 Ks.  Nothing flashy defensively, but very solid at the plate.  Possible OF promotion to Wichita if an opening should arise?  On a side note, during a rain delay during the Saturday game, Rosario was the ONLY player from either team, on the side of the dugout signing autographs for kids (and some big kids too-see pic below) for over twenty minutes during a light (and sometimes not-so-light) rain.
Ben Ross Utility - 5th round pick 2022 out of Notre Dame after his junior year - A clear fan favorite who plays everywhere, big blonde mullet (see locks below.)  1B/SS/CF when we saw him.  12AB/2R/3H/5RBI/(2)2Bs/HR.  Batting .235 on the season with 11HRs.  Fun player to cheer for, goes all out.  Made an error while in CF otherwise was solid, but not spectacular on defense.  
Andrew Cossetti C - 11th round pick out of St. Josephs - Earned a promotion from Ft. Myers in May after a strong start.  3AB/R/2H/2B.  Played one game behind the plate last weekend and is built as solid as a brickhouse.  Not Ben Rortvedt solid, but a stocky 5'10/215 lbs.  Seemed to call a really good game in the final game we saw on Sunday, and showed really good hustle legging out his double, helmet flew off and everything (almost Willians Astudillo like.)
Other pitching prospect notes:
I was hoping to see pitchers Cory Lewis and Zebby Matthews, who have created a bit of buzz this spring, but Lewis & Matthews did not throw.  I heard pitcher Connor Prielipp (2022 2nd round pick) was at the Twins facility in Florida for evaluation, but someone was wearing his number 47 during Friday's jersey auction and they said it was HIS jersey in their online auction site.  Mmmm?   I did see Jaylin Nowlin pitch in relief Friday and he got lit up to the tune of 2IP/5H/4ER/3BB/noKs.  Matthew Swain closed out Sunday's win allowing 2HRs on 3H with a K & BB in one inning pitched.  Ironically, the best pitching performance of the weekend came from starter Orlando Rodriguez who threw 5 shutout innings on Sunday. earning the win and improving his record to 7-2 on the season.  As mentioned earlier in Twins Daily, he was released after the game on Sunday.  Rodriguez is 5-7 years older than most players in high-A ball and I guess they needed the roster space.  Tough break.
If you make the trip to Cedar Rapids, the players are pretty accessible after the games.  They walk right out of the clubhouse past you, as does the opposition on the way to their bus.  There was only one other person looking for autographs with me after Friday's game.  On Sunday, fans are invited to go on the field as ALL Kernel players sign on the field after Sunday games for 10-15 minutes or so.
The Cedar Rapids Kernels won the first half of the season standings and are loaded with talent, especially in the infield (with depth too.)  It will be interesting to watch some of the names above and follow their development during the second half of the season and beyond.  Thanks for reading.

The Twins' offense this spring has been frustrating and disappointing to this point in the season. Any team with the worst team batting average in MLB wouldn't be satisfied with their hitting, add in an inordinate number of strikeouts and puzzling underperformance from high-priced talent and it figures that players could be booed at home. As compared to when the 2022 season ended, this club is healthy, especially on the position player side. Max Kepler will be out for ten days, Royce Lewis will finish his rehab assignment at the end of May and everyone else that figured to contribute this year is available. 
The most recently available player is perhaps the most significant. Alex Kirilloff returned from the Injured List and rehab just over a week ago. The Twins and your's truly see a potential All-Star--someone who can both get on base and hit for power, who can lengthen the lineup and put runs on the board. Much of the reason for optimism is from his dominance in the minor leagues and brief flashes of a healthy AK mashing major league pitching. 
It's all dependent on a wrist. Kirilloff has had his last two seasons ended early because of wrist pain and subsequent surgery. The second surgery was major, some  have called it experimental, The Twins have brought AK on slowly, with no real setbacks. So far, so good. The results on the field have been excellent (only 22 plate appearances), Seven hits in sixteen at-bats, with six walks and three strikeouts. Two homers and a double. When the wrist began to impact Kirilloff in the last two years, he quit driving the ball and hit lots of weak grounders. So far, he's hit a high percentage of balls on the ground, but he's hitting the ball hard and the two homers yesterday show that he can drive the ball. 
What's reasonable for this year? AK should get something north of 400 plate appearances and if he can become a full-time fixture, he could get to 500. In 500 plate appearances, perhaps he could hit as many as 20 homers and I think the batting average could be above .300, which would make him a unicorn. I think if he walks at a 2:3 ratio to strike outs, it would show newfound selectivity. He has not chased out of the zone and has taken his walks so far. A .300 BA combined with a > 10% walk rate would be outstanding for a player in his first full year. 
I'm pulling the projected numbers out of the air. I am also showing my optimism for Kirilloff's ability. I think he can be an elite offensive player and a fine defender. Someone who can really get the offense rolling. I hope in a few months, that people will say this blog has aged well. 

The Twins concluded the first month of the 2023 regular season with a 17-12 record. They stand 3.5 games ahead of Cleveland in the mediocre AL Central Division. What was projected to be a tough April schedule ended up being very manageable. The Twins played seven games against the New York Yankees, winning four, at an ideal time, with the Yankee pitching staff and lineup hamstrung by injuries. They also played the World Champion Astros, winning two of three, while the Astros were in an early season funk.  
How did the Twins manage to win 17 games? Pitching is the easy answer. The Twins allowed only 108 runs in 29 games, second best runs per game in the AL. Meanwhile, they scored 134 runs, seventh best, despite early struggles and cold weather. The offensive production was inconsistent until the just-completed home stand where the Twins scored six runs or more in six of the last seven games. That production was fueled by the long ball. The Twins have homered in eleven consecutive games and have already hit nine three-run homers--last year they hit seventeen in the entire season. 
The pitching started out fantastic. There has been some regression to the mean, but there is still a lot to like. The top three starters have been healthy and effective. Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez have taken the ball and most often completed six or more effective innings. Gray is 4-0 with a microscopic 0.77 ERA, Ryan is 5-0 with a fine 2.81 ERA and after two consecutive subpar starts Lopez is 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA. Lopez has the most innings pitched and strikeouts and his first four starts were outstanding. The bottom half of the rotation has predictably been less effective and now seems dogged by injury. After two decent starts, Kenta Maeda has left his last two starts due to injury and was knocked around before leaving in his last start. Tyler Mahle pitched pretty well, but left his last start and now will be shut down for most of the month of May. The oft-noted rotation depth will be utilized with Bailey Ober already joining the rotation and most likely Louie Varland the next man up. The Twins bullpen has been a top heavy affair. Closer Jhoan Duran wows with his awesome stuff although he's had a few hiccups so far. Jorge Lopez hasn't allowed an earned run, but allowed some hits and an inherited runner in his last two outings, Griffin Jax has been mostly effective although batted ball luck makes his numbers look pretty pedestrian and Caleb Thielbar continues to thrive with one poor outing in an otherwise outstanding month of April. Long relief has done their job, providing lots of innings and pitches in the few one-sided affairs the Twins have played. The problem is the other guys. Jorge Alcala and Jovani Moran were supposed to be reliable bridges to the aforementioned late-inning high-leverage guys and they haven't been effective. Alcala was sent to the minors and Moran looks like he won't be trusted, at least for the near future. Emilio Pagan also provokes anxiety, although he too only had one really bad outing. 
The Twins' defense is pretty sound so far this year. There isn't a lot of range outside of Taylor, but most everyone is reliable at turning outs into outs. Donovan Solano has played one game at second base and several at first, and he appears substandard. Joey Gallo has adjusted very well to first base. Miranda has been okay, but nothing special at third base. The outfield has played well defensively, with a few exceptions.
Positive surprises for the month of April center on the pitching. Lopez, Ryan and Gray have been outstanding on the front end of the rotation--they were projected to be good and they have been better than that. The back end of the bullpen has been as good as advertised, including Jorge Lopez, who seems to have regained the form he had with the Orioles. The Twins have gotten good productivity and good defense from the catchers. Polanco and Buxton are hitting and figure to become the dynamic center of the lineup for a good team. For the position players, health seems to be returning, with Kyle Farmer on the mend and Alex Kirilloff ending his injury rehab. 
There are concerns that need to be addressed. The front end of the bullpen is unreliable at present and this is one area where the Twins lack depth. Someone needs to step up. Further, if the Twins continue to lean heavily on Jax, Thielbar, JLopez and Duran, they will risk burning out the effective back end guys. Carlos Correa, Nick Gordon and (marginally) Jose Miranda have not been effective hitters. Patience is probably needed for the hitters, with Nick Gordon probably on the bubble for demotion or DFA. The Twins are last in MLB in stolen bases, mostly due to lack of team speed, which also probably is reflected in a lack of range at several positions.
In summary, the first month has gone very well. The Twins are now favorites to win the Central division according to betting lines and Fangraphs, but there are still five months of baseball left to secure a place in the playoffs. There are flaws on this team, particularly in bullpen depth. It should be exciting going forward and there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic.  
 

There are few plays in baseball that rival an acrobatic catch from Byron Buxton. Since he debuted with the Twins in 2015, Byron Buxton’s athleticism and prowess in center field have never ceased to impress. Of course, we’re all aware of the downside such fearless play brought too. The violent crashes into the wall and diving plays that have left him hobbled are etched into our memories. The Minnesota Twins organization remembers those downsides as well, and they’ve opted to use Buxton exclusively as a designated hitter so far in the 2023 campaign. While I miss watching Buxton patrol the Target Field grass, it’s hard to argue with the results. 
As of today, Byron Buxton has 87 plate appearances. Last season, Byron didn’t reach a similar amount until the end of May. In 2021, he wouldn’t reach 90 plate appearances until May 5. Sacrificing Buxton’s time in center field for his regular presence in the Twins’ lineup is a tradeoff the club seems comfortable with. It’s hard to argue with their decision, at least so far. Michael A. Taylor has been a revelation, and Royce Lewis and/or Austin Martin may find time in center field as they make their way to the big league club. With that in mind, should we accept that the former Gold Glove winner may never return to center field? Could it be time to evaluate Byron Buxton not as a center fielder but something else entirely? Clues can be found in the 2022 season and comparisons to the league’s best designated hitters. 
Last year, Byron Buxton appeared in 92 games for the Minnesota Twins. Of those appearances, 52 came as the starting center fielder. His remaining 40 appearances came as either a DH or as a pinch hitter. His usage so far in 2023 suggests that ratio could become lopsided in the other direction. And frankly, it is the most pragmatic decision. 
When compared to the best designated hitters across MLB, the evidence is clear: Byron Buxton’s game-changing ability as a hitter is worth the sacrifice. Over the last two seasons, Byron Buxton posted an average of 18.65 Park Adjusted Runs Above Average and is earning an average annual value of $14.3 million. Byron’s slow(ish) start to 2023 notwithstanding, that parallels with similar players. Over that same two-year period (2021 and 2022), Giancarlo Stanton posted 16.75 Park Adjusted Runs Above Average and is earning $25 million annually; Michael Brantley owns 10.75 Park Adjusted Runs Above Average for $12.0 million a year; and J.D. Martinez has 16.95 Park Adjusted Runs Above Average with a $10 million one-year contract. 
In the often praised Ted Lasso, the character of Leslie Higgins posits: “I try to love [him] for who he is and forgive him for who he isn't.” Buxton, of course, doesn’t need forgiveness for not playing center field regularly – he’s sacrificed his body plenty – but it’s time to love Buxton for what he is: a designated hitter, corner outfielder, or maybe at first base.