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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Again, I believe Raya's target date to appear at the ML level has always been 2026. Not going to panic over a bad start after about 4 good ones in a row. 2025 has always been about control/command, adjustments, and getting his IP up. I'm actually more disappointed about Ohl's bad game. Eeles keeps working his way back and doing what he does. 3BB from Keaschall is a good sign. I remain fluxomed by Fedko. I know he's almost 26yo, but why is a draftee by this FO ignoring how good he's been? He either leads the league or is in the top 5 in every category. And he's still waiting for a AAA promotion. Who is blocking him? He might be a potential 4th OF. Klein has been a HUGE find. Like most young arms, he hasn't been "quite" as consistent as you'd like, but his AA numbers are excellent. He's part of the St Paul rotation next season, if not late this year. The lower level arm I've been watching all season, Doktorczyk, threw a solid, but not spectacular, 4 innings to Ft Myers. It's hard to explain, but I think the 9th rounder in the 2024 draft is a mix of Matthews and Ober in size, stuff, potential, and delivery. This is his rookie season. I just have a bunch we might be excited about him in 2026.
- 6 replies
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- rubel cespedes
- john klein
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Heyman Reports The Mets Are Checking In On Danny Coulombe
DocBauer replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I understand this is about Coulombe, but I want to digress for a moment. The Twins aren't going to, PROBABLY, get anything close to a difference maker for 2026. That doesn't mean they don't have some interesting players to trade. PADDACK is a cheap 5th SP that some team might really need to stabilize the back end of their rotation, knowing he might also help in the pen. BADER is a GG caliber OF who is having one of his healthiest and best seasons. CASTRO is having a great season, and not only provides decent offense, but the ability to help all over the field. He might be the Twins best trade chip. COULOMBE has been outstanding in a limited role as a LH who can get RH bats out as well. Whether you and 1 out or 3, he's been outstanding as a 5-7th inning arm. I see little value for France or Vazquez unless someone is just looking for a semi-decent RH bat off the bench, or is in serious need for a veteran #2 catcher. The fact that Coulombe is of interest to the Mets makes perfect sense. But I'm not focused on individual players so much as I'm looking at overall return options. Do the Twins want to move any of these pending FA for lower level prospects that may wash out, or may help in 2-3 years? OR, could they possibly grab a couple of guys who might help in 2026? For example, is there a former top prospect SP that just hasn't put it together yet at AAA or AA that could be converted to the pen tomorrow that might help in 2026? As a recent Twins Daily OP suggested, is there a blocked 1B with some potential...maybe a 4th OF instead to replace Bader...that might help next season? I doubt it, but maybe there's a half way decent catcher being blocked right now...hello Dodgers...that could be a viable #2 behind Jeffers for next year? IF the Twins decide to sell...and I'm not convinced that they will...I'd be focused on 2 things: 1] Is there a talented 1B/C/OF/SU being blocked right now that has a chance to impact 2026. 2] THIS is my primary option. Who's got a former SP prospect sitting at AAA, or even AA, that hasn't met their potential yet but has some good stuff? (A LH is even better). Get an arm or two that fits that criteria and move them to the pen immediately. Hone their repertoire and approach and give them a good look see in ST next season. **said it before and will say it again, make Coulombe a primary offseason signing to fill the same role, even at age 35. But also make finding a LHRP SOMEWHERE to be a later inning option to pair with him. -
My only real quibble is dropping Soto a handful of spots. I know he's injured currently, but the talent and potential are tremendous. And he was off to a great start this season. I don't think injury vs potential should have dropped him quite as many spots.
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- 2025 mlb draft
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I always felt a little bad for Gibson in his Twins tenure. The team was rather desperate for quality pitching, and when he slid to the Twins, the hope was he would be a front line SP for the team. Alas, he was never that. But he had some solid years for the Twins, and had a decent and pretty long career. And by all reports, he was and is a good teammate and good person. I hope he was smart with his $ so he and his family can enjoy life going forward. I wish him the best.
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This MY OPINION as a semi-intelligent human being who has watched a lot of sports in my 59 years. I've seen injuries ruin careers. And I've seen injuries just mess with careers and taken players longer to overcome. Royce may have lost speed, but he's still a good athlete and a tireless worker. I was really encouraged when he spent this past offseason working with a previous trainer that he trusted to increase flexibility to help him avoid his most recent run of soft tissue injuries. Again, IMO, what happened is a pair of bad knee injuries didn't just rob him of speed, but it changed the basic fundamentals of his legs, his base. He's gotten bigger and stronger as part of his rehab, and to provide more power to compensate for his knee injuries. As a result, his body is still adjusting and compensating for the overall change in his body makeup. The idea of working hard on flexibility for that change is the right one. But it might take an additional offseason work to finally see the results. He's not trying to be a muscled-up Marvel superhero, he's trying to get his new body to work in a fluid motion as a hitter. And his base just isn't right as his body is still learning to adjust and compensate. It's, unfortunately, possible those 2 knee injuries have just messed with his base so much that he's just never going to be healthy enough to the player we all hoped he'd be. But then again, a fairly minor surgery suddenly freed Buxton to actually feel good and healthy, and better than he felt in years. In a way, Lewis is still learning to hit again as his whole body is very different that it was when drafted, and through his first couple of seasons in MILB. The HOPE, again IMO, is that a second offseason working on flexibility, combined with time, will allow him a more confident BASE to work with in 2026, with all the parts of his body working more smoothly in unison to be the player we all hope he can be. Or at least close.
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In today's questionable financial market for MLB, with a foggy future that's probably 2-3 years from seeing any sort of real clarity, I can understand having a patch to increase financial intake to help the club. But without knowing the actual financial terms of said sponsorship patch, it's really hard for me to comment accurately. $10-12M makes a difference for a mid market team. But if we're only talking $2-3M, that's a cop-out IMO. No matter the TV deal, in the context of the $M's brought in, I'd rather keep the uniforms neat and clean.
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A quick PS: I'd make Coulombe a priority for 2026 in the offseason despite his age. He's had good success as a Twin, is still very effective, shouldn't be expensive, and fits a certain role that he has filled very successfully for the Twins. I'd also try like crazy to find a younger, even better LHRP option who would hopefully fill more of a late inning role, but Coulombe on another 1yr deal should be at the top of the 2026 list, IMO. Nothing says you can't try to re-sign Castro or Bader. There's room for both to come back. But I suspect both will get a 2yr deal somewhere for $ and length the Twins don't want to match.
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I was doing the family thing and didn't get to watch. That's probably a good thing. I will say that with so much time missed, and oy 1 rehab start, 7 K's by Zebby and 16 whiffs is at least a small positive to take from the game. Also, Clemens isn't great, and sure isn't consistent, but he has still found a way to make a difference at times, even in a loss. I think he's back next season, at least for ST. TWO games right out of the break as losses doesn't change the course of the regular season. But against the worst team in baseball? And even if they win Sunday, they then go face the Dodgers in LA for 3 games that could be tough to win 1. I don't like giving up on a season and not trying to turn it around with 2 1/2 months to go. Especially with Buxton having the best year of his career. But I think reality is staring the Twins in the face. And that reality says to keep trying. Hope Lewis, Correa, and Wallner turn it around. Keep giving starts to the young arms to help get ready for 2026, as well as some other young bats. But it's time to sell off the impending FA and try to make a couple shrewd trades for future help. I think Paddack, Bader, Castro, and Coulombe have some decent value. Not so much Vazquez, unless someone is in desperate need for a veteran #2 catcher. MAYBE we can get a 1B that's blocked, as was recently proposed here on TD. MAYBE there's a couple of arms...possibly former top arms that need to move to the pen...that could help next year. MAYBE a solid 4th OF that's blocked and needing an opportunity to replace Bader. Maybe not, but it's time to see if the decent, solid FA you have can bring something back. Doesn't mean you have to quit trying to play better ball and try to finish the season strong. But this is not their year.
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Good rehab start for Ober. Hopefully he feels great today and the velocity keeps climbing. I don't expect Keaschall to be a savior, and he'll need a couple weeks minimum to get his timing back. But just seeing him back on the field feels really good. Really hard to move Larnach, potentially, at the deadline or the offseason and give LF to a top prospect like Rodriguez and tell him to run with it when you can't stay on the field. Bad luck? His body still growing in to itself? This is getting ridiculous. Langenberg seems to have been on a roll lately. That's great because he began the year pretty poorly. Whenever Jenkins learns to tap in to his power, there will be nothing holding him back.
- 26 replies
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- bailey ober
- luke keaschall
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I really like the potential of Lee. It's why I've been saying over and over again to keep playing him daily so he can learn and develop. He sprays the ball all over, pops some HR and XBH, but also has weak contact at times, chases too much, and doesn't BB enough. He's in a growing and learning phase and it would be a mistake to curtail his development. I expect no miracles from Keaschall. He's not going to save the season or perform like he did in his 1 week debut. But after some rehab time, he has such a well rounded offensive profile that he's ready for MLB. And he can certainly provide a spark. And this team NEEDS a spark from SOMEONE!
- 10 replies
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- pablo lopez
- royce lewis
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The good news is SWR and Festa are doing a solid/decent job of developing and keeping the Twins around the .500 mark. Matthews is back probably within a week to take over the 5th spot. Ober and Lopez should be back some time in August, possibly late July for Ober. Lewis, Correa, and Wallner are all healthy. (Reportedly). All are performing FAR LOWER than talent, previous production, and expected production. And the Twins have an easier 2nd half schedule than they had the 1st half. The bad news is you STILL need to win games. EVERYONE has "easy" and "hard" stretches of games. And most teams have at least some 1st and 2nd half flux in regard to schedule difficulty. By again, you still have to WIN. CAN the pitching hold up? CAN the disappointing bats wake up? It's not just the Twins record. They are also chasing the teams above them, and overcoming them to earn a spot. They have a little over 2 weeks to go on a run, win some ga.es, get above .500, and LOOK like a team that can continue to win. IF they can do that, they stand pat, or maybe do a small buy, or a small biy and sell to add. But if they DON'T show something positive over the next 2 weeks, they need to look to sell impending FA for the best return possible and promote a couple young players, get Keaschall back, and start to prepare for 2026 while still trying to win games and create as good of a "good feel" as they can to finish the year. Who knows? The Tigers sold of players at the deadline and then played good enough ball to still make the playoffs last year.
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On a completely different topic, I always struggle somewhat as mid and late July come around. I'm honestly more excited about the Vikings than I have been in a few years. I'm also excited for the college season and what my Huskers might accomplish. And I know we've got WEEKS to go before either season starts in full. But when football starts, it also means summer is about over. And that disappoints me somewhat. Maybe that's why I'm such a baseball fan and can't wait for ST every year. Lol
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And what is so sad and disappointing is this happened days after a young teammate was killed, along with friends, by a drunk driver. I sure hope Addison has had his eyes opened and has/is getting the help he needs to make sure he doesn't hurt himself, or anyone else, or ruin his life by future mistakes.
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I agree with your list 100%. I really don't know when to expect Lopez back. So I would include Matthews as a #6 as right now we're relying on bullpen games for the 5th spot, and Matthews should be back very soon. Maybe within a week. I just can't believe Correa's bat is suddenly toast for such a smart, talented, and we'll conditioned 30yo who was excellent in 2024. Lewis doesn't have to be Superman, just more of what he has shown himself to be previously. But the same goes for Wallner. An OPS over .800 each of the past 2 seasons and a good start to this season before his injury. His timing just appears to be out of sync. Like Correa and Lewis, who cares about final numbers. What matters is 2nd half numbers/production at this point. But I've got 2 more for ya. Can Lee continue to develop over the rest of the season to not only develop for 2026 and beyond, but get his 2024 production more consistent and get his OPS over .700+ for the 2nd half? The 1 week we saw of Luke Keaschall is simply not who he is. That was a HOF week. But he IS talented and brings a very balanced and exciting offensive portfolio with him. He can help provide a spark for the team. What's so damned frustrating is the players/talent on this team might not indicate a top 5 offense, but it sure shouldn't be 15th or lower, as it's been for most of this season so far. It's as if everyone has slumped all at the same time. And as has been the case for most all of this year, the offense is going to drive this team to success...or failure.
- 10 replies
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- pablo lopez
- royce lewis
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A good thing is the Twins have Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Jax, and Duran all through 2027. The bad news is the control for them all dissolves pretty much the same time. The silver lining to 2025 at this point is more time for SWR, Festa, and Matthews to get more opportunity to gain experience and grow. And there's a couple more arms that could be ready next year, or 2027, even if we don't include Soto or Hill in that group. I believe they leaned in to college arms so strong in this last draft because that was the deepest part of the draft, and not as "quick fix" options. It just turns out as a lucky coincidence that it works out that way. Personally, I like Larnach even though he's not a star player. Wouldn't it be awesome if Rodriguez could stay healthy and just take over his spot and make him tradeable? But I agree that any major moves of controllable players should take place in the offseason. Not only have they done better overall in such trades, but it gives the younger players more time this season to develop. Again, I reference how the Brewers might be an even better example than Cleveland or Tampa.
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I honestly believe Diaw and Ferrer are the top catching prospects in the system, despite being in their 1st seasons. (Haven't given up on Cardenas either). I'm just surprised there wasn't a single catching option they didn't like somewhere. Again, I'm really excited about the first 5 pitchers. I think Mitrovich might be a bit of a steal, and I wouldn't be shocked if Barr turns out even better than Quick. I've softened my stance somewhat on the last 7 or 8 choices, though I'm going to guess the 20th pick of Hiker will go back to school. The other arms just seem like complete fliers based on what they've done to this point, or not done. But in the 10 of the first 11 picks I think they did a great job! How can you not be super intrigued about Young? Good post!
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The more things change, the more older approaches come back. The high FB has become all the rage, and isn't going away. But as hitters adjust, and analysis provides more data, the 2 seamer is suddenly in vogue again. The key is getting hitters out. We often focus so much on pure velocity...which is great...but high heat that doesn't move creates problems. Whether or not your rotation has a high quality LH SP or not, what works best is a "mix" of rotation arms that provide different looks. Festa, for example, has a high velocity 4 seamer and a pair of quality secondary offerings. But his FB has been his worst pitch overall. Now he's mixing in a 2 seamer, which should only make his 4 seamer that much more affective going forward. This was a mediocre draft that leaned toward SS, especially on the prep side, and college arms. And I think the scouting department did a great job of embracing that and going for talented, upside college arms this draft. Honestly, while Quick had a solid season, he was coming back from TJ surgery. If was to come out in 2026, he probably doesn't even reach the Twins at pick #16. I don't want to derail the OP, but they also grabbed an intriguing power arm in Ellwanger in the 3rd, and the 6' 11" Reitz in the 4th round that offers tremendous promise if they can keep his mechanics in check, and 19yo 5th rounder Barr who might be as good or better a prospect than anyone else. A really nice collection of high upside college arms.
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I don't disagree with you entirely, but resigning might be a little harsh. I do think, at times, they are just STUCK in a sense of paranoia about the depth issue. I think injuries and a couple bad performances at AAA really exploded their idea of depth this season. But at the same time, in reflection at least, I don't know that they built the best AAA roster they could have. I can't blame them for injuries to Martin and Rodriguez and Eeles recovering from surgery. I can't blame them for Morris getting hurt, even though Adams has gotten a chance to show if he has ML pen potential. But I never liked the bullpen they put together for St Paul. I don't like the way Camargo was handled in 2024 when they could have given him a brief shot. And I don't like the way the treated McCusker in his brief opportunity, even though he might have failed. To me it's not just about this season and all the injuries at AAA, it's more about the past couple of years. Sometimes you just don't have someone very good to promote from AAA for various reasons. And dipping down to a non 40 man AA player probably doesn't make sense. But the FO is in charge of building that AAA roster. Of course, and let's be honest for a moment, the injuries for this season, and the performance of Miranda, and Julien...at least until recently...were unexpected and really handcuffed what moves the FO could make.
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Personally, I want a team that has a chance to win games and be in contention for every season possible. Every few years, things do line up for a good team to make a serious run. And you have ZERO chance if you don't actually make the playoffs, yes? Also, winning...and having a chance...is a hell of a lot more fun than losing. It can also bring in fan interest and affect payroll. I never want a team that's willing to tank for years just to get high draft choices and HOPE lightening strikes one year. BUT, to the OP itself: To different degrees, the Twins attempt to model themselves after 3 franchises: 1] TAMPA: The use of viable analytics to put forth the best possibility of winning. This includes things like platoons, pitching matchups at opportune times, even playing situational baseball at times. (Rocco has leaned more in to the situational part of the game the past couple of years, but you also need thr right players to make this happen). 2] CLEVELAND: And really, TAMPA is part of this as well. It's the part about drafting pitchers, signing arms, trading for arms, and building a SYSTEM to find arms. Recent history has Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Festa, Matthews, Duran, Varland, Jax, and others as all part of this formula. Some drafted, some traded for from existing talent, internal development, and conversion. It also includes reclamation projects that they have found some success from, and should maybe look at harder. 3] DODGERS: The Dodgers have the $ to go out and do about anything they want to when they want to. But one thing they stress is roster flexibility. When someone gets injured...or even needs a rest...they usually have the roster flexibility to move pieces around. Marwin Gonzalez in the past, and Castro are examples of this flexibility. Taylor 2yrs ago and Bader this year are OF examples. Despite playing daily and being a young player still developing, Lee is also an example. There are quality examples of what all 3 of these organizations do that the Twins have embraced, or attempt to embrace. I think where the current FO has lost opportunity...FAILED is too strong a word IMO...or been "confused" about their approach is by trying too hard to be "perfect". For instance, building depth is a wonderful and perfect idea. But they have done so, at times, with almost an obsession about having a mass injury season and "losing" depth, even at the risk of keeping underperforming players. As a result, they have, at times, refused to follow Cleveland and Tampa in moving on from expiring vets via trade that MIGHT bring back SOMEONE who has a chance to contribute in the future. Think about Rocco's first couple of seasons. He had teams built on power offenses with high K numbers that ranked top 5-10 in offense, but less pitching than they have currently. By his own admission, he didn't have to do much managing for the offense. Now the K's are down, but so is the power and runs scored, though they have a better pitching staff. He's trying for a little for situational ball, but he has little speed to work with. While the Twins still try to draft power...and they should...they've been selecting more athletic players the past few years. Keaschall is about the 1st to reach the ML level. They are attempting to build a more balanced roster of power and athleticism. But it doesn't happen overnight. It sure doesn't help when your payroll suddenly gets restricted and some of your TOP players all seem to suddenly underperform. A] I think they're struggling with an identity. Its great to steal/copy ideas from other teams. But put your OWN STAMP on what you want to be! KEEP looking for power because power rules! It's been proven over and over again. KEEP building your pitching! And KEEP looking for better athletes and better defenders, as they've been doing the past few drafts. B] Do a better job of recognize when something/someone isn't working and follow Cleveland and Tampa a little more in approach to "take a risk" and move on from guys you are going to lose anyway, and see if you can get a 4th OF, a SU utility INF, a solid backup catcher, or a solid pen arm for the next season. My goodness, Detroit made trades in 2024 and suddenly GOT BETTER. ANNNNND this leads me to.... C] Start to embrace more of what MILWAUKEE does. They are also a mid market team. I'm NOT suggesting the Twins, with all the confusion about the team being bought, by whom, when, who will be in charge next season, and trade major assets NOW, BUT, the Brewers haven't been the least bit shy about promoting young talent and letting them learn on the fly. For the most part, they've been rewarded. Right now, the young SWR is throwing about as well as he did last season. Festa is building on what he did in 2024. There's opportunity at the moment, and development in the process, despite some lumps taken and the temporary loss of Lopez and Ober. Matthews should be back soon, and also has an opportunity to build on some of the flashes he showed in 2024, and so far this season. Keaschall, healthy soon, will hopefully provide a spark. No way he's as good as he was in his debut or we're talking about a HOF player. But talent and opportunity can offer serious upside. Going out on a crazy limb here, but what if Rodriguez can get back soon and actually be healthy the 2nd half of the season? Is it time to bring all that potential up for September and just let him have some growing pains? Give him the LF job next year and just live with what he does and let him grow? Unless the Twins have a really good July and actually look like they can make the playoffs, get what you can for the expiring FA. At that point, get the kids up. But I don't like just giving up the season. Figure out who you WANT to be as an organization! Borrow from EVERYONE, but put your OWN STAMP on who you WANT TO BE going forward. But always remember you ARE a mid market team, and sometimes that means moving on and taking some chances.
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I think a team like the Twins should ALWAYS look at arms that couldn't take that next step as a starter and MIGHT have the mix to be a good reliever. Or someone coming odd injury. That's how they got Stewart. But Davis had pretty mediocre numbers in the minors, and has been generally awful at the ML level as well. Are there some pitches and some underlying numbers that offer SOME intrigue? Maybe. But to be on the 40 man? I know he's an easy DFA at some point, but I only see some possible depth/help for St Paul.
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The entire roster needs to be examined and contemplated in the offseason. But based on current roster construction and pending FA the team projects to need replacements at catcher, 1B, 4th OF, and Super Utility. Adding a AA pen arm or a struggling starter that they see transitioning to the pen. So if they DO sell, or do a sell/buy option as presented here, someone like Long might be a smart move. I don't know if he's the right player to target or not, but the idea is a sound one.
- 48 replies
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- willi castro
- danny coulombe
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To be accurate, Sabato just turned 26yo a little over a month ago: June 4th. I think the difference between Sabato and McCusker...or someone similar...is that Sabato was a 1st round pick for a reason. He put up really solid numbers in his 2yrs of college and probably had the most power of anyone in that draft. So right or wrong, a former 1st round pick suddenly taking a step forward in his age 25/26 season offers a greater degree of optimism than a waiver wire acquisition, or an independent ball addition. Whether or not Sabato's breakout is sustainable and leads to anything is TBD. But I can understand the optimism.
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France is not part of the future, and has been awful in anything but high leverage opportunities. And that continuing is not predictable. Still, you can't just ignore what he's done for the club so far this season, including a solid glove at 1B. And Clemens's role is best as a utility player with LH power isn't it? But as the OP points out, there are even more moving parts if we get Keaschall back soon. I think there's room for both. Unless, of course, someone is traded or acquired. I'd probably say keep splitting the job 50/50 or 60/40.
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You and I have discussed this previously, so no new ground here. Houston just isn't an exciting draft pick. He's not a speed demon or a powerful potential OF. He wasn't my pick at that spot. I keep reading about DeBarge being disappointing as he started hot and has cooled down. He's also a professional rookie. Just because Culpepper had been CRAZY GOOD in his rookie season...and Keaschall did pretty much the same...really shouldn't reflect on DeBarge. If Houston's defense is even close to projections, he's in line to be a very good ML SS in a couple of years. If he only has enough power for 10-15 HR with some solid DBL numbers, with some speed on the bases and can actually HIT decently, he's a very good ML player. I have no clue how good he might or not be. But like you, I've got some faith in the Twins scouting department because they sure seemed to get Keaschall and Culpepper right.
- 25 replies
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- marco raya
- jaime ferrer
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The one thing to remember in regard to Ferrer and DeBarge is that they are professional rookies this year. I understand they were college draftees, but they were sent to A+ for that very reason. DeBarge started hot but is slumping right now. Ferrer started slowly but is heating up. What matters is how they develop, and how they finish overall.
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- marco raya
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